A 'new beginning' for what? The strained peace of inter-referendum Northern Ireland (1998-2016)

Abstract

The Good Friday Agreement of April 1998 declared itself “a truly historic opportunity for a new beginning,” ending thirty years of identity-based conflict between opposing communities in Northern Ireland – a new beginning supported by the majority of voters when put to a popular referendum the following month. Yet, despite this optimism, the years that followed saw the endurance and strengthening of familiar patterns of division and separation in the region: patterns which continued to destabilise the supposed peace by maintaining the threat of a return to violence. As the region now faces new uncertainty with the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union – a second historic decision taken on the basis of a popular referendum in June 2016 – the question of the quality of peace established in 1998 and experienced over the intervening inter-referendum years is called into question. This thesis investigates the quality of peace in Northern Ireland in this period and the mechanisms which have kept historic in-group/out-group divisions salient to life in this deeply-divided society. Through the use of the archival record, interviews with stakeholders, and publicly-available official documents, this research presents the novel model of a strained peace to understand the region: a liminal space wherein formal structures of peace endure but the threat of violence remains, engrained in institutions and everyday activities so as to become all-encompassing. This strained peace is reiterated through systems of governance, grassroots initiatives, and the development of a culture war which utilises historical memory and identity in order to maintain boundaries between groups. I argue that the strained peace of inter-referendum Northern Ireland provides ample evidence that the establishment of peace must be considered beyond formal negotiations and agreements, as violence can – and does – remain a salient part of life through new expressions of enduring grievances.