St Andrews Research Repository

St Andrews University Home
View Item 
  •   St Andrews Research Repository
  • International Relations (School of)
  • International Relations
  • International Relations Theses
  • View Item
  •   St Andrews Research Repository
  • International Relations (School of)
  • International Relations
  • International Relations Theses
  • View Item
  •   St Andrews Research Repository
  • International Relations (School of)
  • International Relations
  • International Relations Theses
  • View Item
  • Login
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

The state application of repressive and reconciliatory tactics in the North Caucasus (2007-2014)

Date
23/03/2017
Author
Zhirukhina, Elena
Supervisor
Fawn, Rick
Funder
Marie Curie Initial Training Network 'Post-Soviet Tension'
Keywords
Counterterrorism
Counterinsurgency
Repression
Reconciliation
North Caucasus
Russia
Conflict resolution
Tactics
Discriminate
Indiscriminate
Metadata
Show full item record
Altmetrics Handle Statistics
Abstract
This thesis was inspired by the question of how the state addresses irregular challenges for its survival and reputation. It used an example of the confrontation between illegal armed groups (IAGs) operating in the North Caucasus and the Russian state in 2007-2014. Investigation started by asking to what extent do repressive and reconciliatory counter tactics decrease the level of violence produced by illegal armed groups? The thesis was situated in-between of deterrence and backlash theories to examine (in)effectiveness of repressive and reconciliatory policies. It accounted for (in)effectiveness by investigating whether the policy decreases or increases the level of insurgency-related violence; namely, whether it causes deterrence or backlash, in the case of repression or, alternatively, whether it causes conformity or backlash in the case of reconciliation. The thesis operationalised its main variables by disaggregating the strategy into separate repressive and reconciliatory tactics. It considered, on the one hand, three types of IAGs tactics: armed assault, bombings (suicide bombing, vehicle bomb, bomb placement, bomb tossing, firing, fake bomb) and hostage taking. One the other hand, the state tactics were divided into four categories: repressive indiscriminate (regime of counterterrorist operation, clash, and shelling), repressive discriminate (special operation, shooting, arrest, seizure, and detection), reconciliatory indiscriminate (involvement of civil society through dialogue, and socio-economic development), and reconciliatory discriminate (amnesty and reintegration). The thesis expected targeted repressive operations to suppress active IAGs members, whereas socio-economic incentives to contribute to maintaining the success of violent repressive operations. To test these hypotheses, the thesis relied on large empirical data, specially collected from the open sources, including 3270 episodes of IAG-initiated violence and 6114 governmental repressive actions. Data for reconciliatory efforts was taken from official statistics. The thesis used a generalized linear negative binomial and a generalized additive negative binomial model to assess the relationship between governmental policies and the level of violence. The thesis found that discriminate violence does indeed decrease attacks. However, it causes an immediate strong backlash effect at first, and only with considerable time and magnitude of repression eventually leads to the reduction of violence. The more discriminate repression is applied the less backlash it causes. Unlike repression, reconciliatory tactics produce a decrease in attacks. Thus, the thesis found partial support for both deterrence and backlash models. It, however, showed that deterrence effect overcomes initial backlash reaction.
Type
Thesis, PhD Doctor of Philosophy
Rights
Embargo Date: 2022-04-24
Embargo Reason: Thesis restricted in accordance with University regulations. Print and electronic copy restricted until 24th April 2022
Collections
  • International Relations Theses
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/11094

Items in the St Andrews Research Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Advanced Search

Browse

All of RepositoryCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateNamesTitlesSubjectsClassificationTypeFunderThis CollectionBy Issue DateNamesTitlesSubjectsClassificationTypeFunder

My Account

Login

Open Access

To find out how you can benefit from open access to research, see our library web pages and Open Access blog. For open access help contact: openaccess@st-andrews.ac.uk.

Accessibility

Read our Accessibility statement.

How to submit research papers

The full text of research papers can be submitted to the repository via Pure, the University's research information system. For help see our guide: How to deposit in Pure.

Electronic thesis deposit

Help with deposit.

Repository help

For repository help contact: Digital-Repository@st-andrews.ac.uk.

Give Feedback

Cookie policy

This site may use cookies. Please see Terms and Conditions.

Usage statistics

COUNTER-compliant statistics on downloads from the repository are available from the IRUS-UK Service. Contact us for information.

© University of St Andrews Library

University of St Andrews is a charity registered in Scotland, No SC013532.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter