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On the persistence of output fluctuations in high technology sectors

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Aloi_On The Persistence of Output Fluctuations.pdf (83.35Kb)
Date
2000
Author
Lasselle, Laurence
Aloi, Marta
McMillan, David G.
Keywords
Persistence
Growth
Endogenous fluctuations
Stochastic trends
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Abstract
Fatás (2000) argues that in a cross-section analysis of countries there exists a positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations. The current paper extends this line of research by examining manufacturing sectors of an economy which can be characterised by two levels of technology; a low level and a high level. Analysis of the data reveals a positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations in ‘high-tech’ sectors. This empirical analysis is further supported by reformulating the model of Matsuyama (1999b) in a stochastic environment. Within this framework the model is able to capture the two main theories of growth, namely; the Solow model and the Romer model. The stochastic nature of the long run output trend is endogenous and based on technological shocks. Despite the cyclical nature of the shocks we are able to show that output fluctuations are more persistent in ‘high-tech’ sectors.
Citation
School of Economics and Finance discussion paper series ; 0013
Type
Working or discussion paper
Description
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000061/
Collections
  • Economics & Finance Research
URI
http://ideas.repec.org/p/san/wpecon/0013.html
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/652

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