Are there Wolves among the sheep? Assessing the threat of unaffiliated actor terrorism in the context of the European migration crisis

Abstract

The European Migration Crisis is increasingly linked to an exponentially rising threat of terrorism in Europe and a rapid disintegration of the EU’s security and integrity. However while the narrative of the terrorist ‘wolves’ hiding among the refugee ‘sheep’ becomes increasingly prevalent, little quantitative analysis has been made to substantiate it. This paper seeks to interrogate the evidence behind a key claim prevalent in that narrative; that ‘lone wolf’ terrorists have entered Europe under the cover of the crisis. On the basis of the available data, this paper contends that such a threat is minimal, the crisis presenting a social problem rather than a security issue.