Economics & Finance (School of)https://hdl.handle.net/10023/222024-03-25T13:35:57Z2024-03-25T13:35:57ZTitle redactedGroenning, Simon Bohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/295412024-03-23T03:07:32Z2024-06-13T00:00:00ZAbstract redacted
2024-06-13T00:00:00ZGroenning, Simon BoAbstract redactedTowards sustainable transport : macroeconomic and microeconometric perspectivesMac Domhnaill, Ciaránhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/295352024-03-21T03:11:14Z2024-06-13T00:00:00ZProgressing towards sustainable transport will be critical to meeting the Paris Climate Change Agreement's target of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This thesis explores questions relevant to this transition. Have we reached 'peak car'? Did Brexit cause a shift from road freight transport to the more energy efficient mode of short sea shipping? Can ride hailing platforms advance transport sustainability?
In Chapter 1, using 1950-2010 data on 88 countries, I demonstrate that the number of private cars per GDP in the economy, or 'car intensity', evolves in a hump-shaped pattern during economic development. I develop a general equilibrium model to argue that structural transformation can generate this trend. My calibrated model can account for a quarter of observed variation in car intensity among 54 countries in 2010. Counterfactual exercises show that peak intensity is lower for economies that develop later.
In Chapter 2, I conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the effect of Brexit on maritime cargo volumes. I examine 2013-2022 Eurostat port-level data and find a 22 per cent decrease in EU-UK roll-on roll-off (Ro-Ro) volumes, and a 54 per cent decrease in Ireland-UK Ro-Ro volumes, due to Brexit. I find a concurrent increase of 147 per cent in Ireland-France Ro-Ro cargo, indicating a diversion from the UK land-bridge route to direct short sea shipping routes. I estimate that emissions would be roughly 60 per cent lower on the direct route.
In Chapter 3, I employ Scottish Household Survey 2012-2019 travel diary data from 16,712 individuals in a difference-in-differences examination of how ride hailing affected the use of other transport modes. Results reveal a small complementary effect on the use of public transport relative to driving a car in Glasgow, which is more pronounced among individuals who are younger, male, and with higher household income.
2024-06-13T00:00:00ZMac Domhnaill, CiaránProgressing towards sustainable transport will be critical to meeting the Paris Climate Change Agreement's target of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This thesis explores questions relevant to this transition. Have we reached 'peak car'? Did Brexit cause a shift from road freight transport to the more energy efficient mode of short sea shipping? Can ride hailing platforms advance transport sustainability?
In Chapter 1, using 1950-2010 data on 88 countries, I demonstrate that the number of private cars per GDP in the economy, or 'car intensity', evolves in a hump-shaped pattern during economic development. I develop a general equilibrium model to argue that structural transformation can generate this trend. My calibrated model can account for a quarter of observed variation in car intensity among 54 countries in 2010. Counterfactual exercises show that peak intensity is lower for economies that develop later.
In Chapter 2, I conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the effect of Brexit on maritime cargo volumes. I examine 2013-2022 Eurostat port-level data and find a 22 per cent decrease in EU-UK roll-on roll-off (Ro-Ro) volumes, and a 54 per cent decrease in Ireland-UK Ro-Ro volumes, due to Brexit. I find a concurrent increase of 147 per cent in Ireland-France Ro-Ro cargo, indicating a diversion from the UK land-bridge route to direct short sea shipping routes. I estimate that emissions would be roughly 60 per cent lower on the direct route.
In Chapter 3, I employ Scottish Household Survey 2012-2019 travel diary data from 16,712 individuals in a difference-in-differences examination of how ride hailing affected the use of other transport modes. Results reveal a small complementary effect on the use of public transport relative to driving a car in Glasgow, which is more pronounced among individuals who are younger, male, and with higher household income.Essays on unconventional monetary policyBandera, Nicolòhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/282982023-10-09T09:01:39Z2023-11-28T00:00:00ZThis dissertation studies the synergies and trade-offs between unconventional monetary policy instruments and their interactions with macro-prudential policy. The complementarities between policy tools played a critical role in the monetary response to the Covid-19 pandemic, but they have been overlooked by the literature. My dissertation answers the call by policymakers to fill this knowledge gap undermining unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effectiveness. The first chapter assesses empirically the efficacy of the lending programmes in the context of the Chinese monetary policy. It finds that liquidity injections enhance the policy rate signal and are deployed in coordination with other policy tools – consistent with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) experience. The second and third chapters, are theoretical and extend a workhorse DSGE model nesting quantitative easing, negative interest rate policy and forward guidance along two dimensions. The second chapter adds macro-prudential policy to study how the introduction of a countercyclical capital buffer affects the transmission of UMP. Policy simulations show that deploying simultaneously macro-prudential policy and UMP strengthens the effectiveness of monetary policy and allows an earlier unwinding of UMP. The third chapter expands the baseline model with central bank lending programmes featuring a collateral policy and a “dual rate system”. It aims to analyse the interlinkages generated by the simultaneous deployment of the lending programmes with other UMP tools. Four channels of monetary transmission arise and the chapter offers policy recommendations to capitalise on the synergies and mitigate the trade-offs. The final chapter estimates the loss in Euro Area potential output due to the Covid-19 crisis using a novel sectoral method. It finds that potential output in 2025 might be 0.8% lower than in the absence of the Covid-19 crisis.
2023-11-28T00:00:00ZBandera, NicolòThis dissertation studies the synergies and trade-offs between unconventional monetary policy instruments and their interactions with macro-prudential policy. The complementarities between policy tools played a critical role in the monetary response to the Covid-19 pandemic, but they have been overlooked by the literature. My dissertation answers the call by policymakers to fill this knowledge gap undermining unconventional monetary policy (UMP) effectiveness. The first chapter assesses empirically the efficacy of the lending programmes in the context of the Chinese monetary policy. It finds that liquidity injections enhance the policy rate signal and are deployed in coordination with other policy tools – consistent with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) experience. The second and third chapters, are theoretical and extend a workhorse DSGE model nesting quantitative easing, negative interest rate policy and forward guidance along two dimensions. The second chapter adds macro-prudential policy to study how the introduction of a countercyclical capital buffer affects the transmission of UMP. Policy simulations show that deploying simultaneously macro-prudential policy and UMP strengthens the effectiveness of monetary policy and allows an earlier unwinding of UMP. The third chapter expands the baseline model with central bank lending programmes featuring a collateral policy and a “dual rate system”. It aims to analyse the interlinkages generated by the simultaneous deployment of the lending programmes with other UMP tools. Four channels of monetary transmission arise and the chapter offers policy recommendations to capitalise on the synergies and mitigate the trade-offs. The final chapter estimates the loss in Euro Area potential output due to the Covid-19 crisis using a novel sectoral method. It finds that potential output in 2025 might be 0.8% lower than in the absence of the Covid-19 crisis.Essays in macroeconomics : cycles and frictionsLupoli, Mariohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/278652023-07-05T02:05:10Z2023-11-28T00:00:00ZThis thesis contributes to different literatures in macroeconomics with frictions. In the first two Chapters I consider imperfections in the credit market and how these can amplify monetary policy shocks. I start from a purely empirical model, which identifies monetary policy shocks and then I develop a structural model with an explicit market for mortgage loans intermediated by a banking sector. Households and banks are each facing a different optimisation program. I show that this model better captures the volatility of macroeconomic aggregates than alternative frictionless cases. This richer modelling setting assigns a more complicated role to the monetary authority, as the policy rate influences asset prices, nominal debt and bank profitability in addition to intertemporal consumption. The Third Chapter is concerned with wage rigidity and how to measure it. We define it as relative to the wage one would expect under Nash bargaining. Then we develop a statistic for wage rigidity, the Nash Wage Elasticity (NWE) by regressing actual wages on the Nash bargained wage. Most of our calibrations yield a NWE between 0 and 0.1, signifying that actual wages are very rigid and that the Nash wage is a poor description of the business cycle. We calibrate a search and matching model to match our estimated NWE, showing how this modification translates into greater cyclical fluctuations. In the fourth Chapter I analyse the causal relation linking index investment to commodity future prices. I show that standard Granger causality results cannot be taken at face value given the extraordinary movement in prices during the Great Financial Crisis. I apply instead a Time-Varying Granger test apt to gauge the evolution of the causal relation, showing how future prices are endogenous to index investment flows at particular points in time, generally supporting the hypothesis of financialization in the commodity market.
2023-11-28T00:00:00ZLupoli, MarioThis thesis contributes to different literatures in macroeconomics with frictions. In the first two Chapters I consider imperfections in the credit market and how these can amplify monetary policy shocks. I start from a purely empirical model, which identifies monetary policy shocks and then I develop a structural model with an explicit market for mortgage loans intermediated by a banking sector. Households and banks are each facing a different optimisation program. I show that this model better captures the volatility of macroeconomic aggregates than alternative frictionless cases. This richer modelling setting assigns a more complicated role to the monetary authority, as the policy rate influences asset prices, nominal debt and bank profitability in addition to intertemporal consumption. The Third Chapter is concerned with wage rigidity and how to measure it. We define it as relative to the wage one would expect under Nash bargaining. Then we develop a statistic for wage rigidity, the Nash Wage Elasticity (NWE) by regressing actual wages on the Nash bargained wage. Most of our calibrations yield a NWE between 0 and 0.1, signifying that actual wages are very rigid and that the Nash wage is a poor description of the business cycle. We calibrate a search and matching model to match our estimated NWE, showing how this modification translates into greater cyclical fluctuations. In the fourth Chapter I analyse the causal relation linking index investment to commodity future prices. I show that standard Granger causality results cannot be taken at face value given the extraordinary movement in prices during the Great Financial Crisis. I apply instead a Time-Varying Granger test apt to gauge the evolution of the causal relation, showing how future prices are endogenous to index investment flows at particular points in time, generally supporting the hypothesis of financialization in the commodity market.Interterritorial trade flows in the East African community 1961-1970 with particular regard to trade in manufactured goods and chemicals and the period 1967-1970Appleby, Brianhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/219292022-02-01T11:54:57Z1973-01-01T00:00:00Z1973-01-01T00:00:00ZAppleby, BrianThe employment of women : evolution, pattern and composition. With special reference to the United KingdomKhairy, Annie Hassan Fahmyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/218972022-01-06T09:47:32Z1971-01-01T00:00:00Z1971-01-01T00:00:00ZKhairy, Annie Hassan FahmyThe estates of the Church of Worcester before the Roman ConquestMcClay, Alisonhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/218452021-10-27T02:02:55Z1978-01-01T00:00:00Z1978-01-01T00:00:00ZMcClay, AlisonAnalysis of the prospective economic effects for the Sudan of association with the EEC under the Lome Convention with particular reference to foreign trade and aidEl Mannan, Agil M. A.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/218052021-10-21T09:52:43Z1976-01-01T00:00:00ZThis study is intended to be an inquiry into the prospective economic effects for the Sudan of its association with the European Economic Community (The EEC] under the Lome Convention which was concluded between the EEC and 46 African, Caribbean and Pacific states, including the Sudan, on 28 February 1975. The study is mainly concerned with the trade and aid fields. Other economic aspects closely related to these two fields, such as regional integration, infra-structure and bringing about the desired structural change in the economy of the Sudan are also briefly examined.
1976-01-01T00:00:00ZEl Mannan, Agil M. A.This study is intended to be an inquiry into the prospective economic effects for the Sudan of its association with the European Economic Community (The EEC] under the Lome Convention which was concluded between the EEC and 46 African, Caribbean and Pacific states, including the Sudan, on 28 February 1975. The study is mainly concerned with the trade and aid fields. Other economic aspects closely related to these two fields, such as regional integration, infra-structure and bringing about the desired structural change in the economy of the Sudan are also briefly examined.Essays in Islamic finance and bankingAl Balooshi, Sarahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/201742021-07-27T08:47:50Z2020-07-31T00:00:00ZThis thesis comprises three essays on Islamic investment securities (sukuk) and Islamic banking products. Data show that firms in dual financial system economies utilize traditional and Islamic instruments simultaneously to raise funds. Hence, religion is not the sole motive for Islamic transactions. That is attributed to the structure of sukuk, either promoting transparency or obscuring firm information. Chapter II investigates the relationship between firms' opacity and the choice to issue sukuk, given the availability of traditional external sources. We find that as opacity increases, the probability of firms' issuing zero-coupon (ZC) sukuk is the highest followed by conventional bonds and profit-loss sharing (PLS) sukuk. Therefore, opacity has a significant role in choosing between traditional and Islamic instruments, and that issuing zero-coupon sukuk requires more supervision. Chapter III uses a modified pecking order theory to place sukuk in firms' financial hierarchies among debt and equity. We look at the firms' funding choices at two thresholds: exhaustion of internal funds and maximum debt capacity. Firms' choice indicates the level of adverse selection and information asymmetry involved in issuing sukuk. When internal funds are exhausted, firms prefer to issue Profit-loss sharing sukuk over bonds, and fixed income sukuk is placed before equity beyond firms' maximum leverage. Thus, sukuk can widen the external funding spectrum, and the modified pecking order can accommodate sukuk. Chapter IV looks at the investors of such instruments. We investigate the Islamic banks' product mix to verify the claim that Islamic banks are identical to conventional banks due to the concentration of debt-like products. We hand-collected the values of each Islamic banking product otherwise aggregated under "loans". We document that while debt-like products positively affect bank performance, profit-loss sharing products enhance solvency. Contrary to theoretical claims, Islamic banks portfolios are not concentrated. Chapter I introduces Islamic finance and products, while Chapter V concludes.
2020-07-31T00:00:00ZAl Balooshi, SaraThis thesis comprises three essays on Islamic investment securities (sukuk) and Islamic banking products. Data show that firms in dual financial system economies utilize traditional and Islamic instruments simultaneously to raise funds. Hence, religion is not the sole motive for Islamic transactions. That is attributed to the structure of sukuk, either promoting transparency or obscuring firm information. Chapter II investigates the relationship between firms' opacity and the choice to issue sukuk, given the availability of traditional external sources. We find that as opacity increases, the probability of firms' issuing zero-coupon (ZC) sukuk is the highest followed by conventional bonds and profit-loss sharing (PLS) sukuk. Therefore, opacity has a significant role in choosing between traditional and Islamic instruments, and that issuing zero-coupon sukuk requires more supervision. Chapter III uses a modified pecking order theory to place sukuk in firms' financial hierarchies among debt and equity. We look at the firms' funding choices at two thresholds: exhaustion of internal funds and maximum debt capacity. Firms' choice indicates the level of adverse selection and information asymmetry involved in issuing sukuk. When internal funds are exhausted, firms prefer to issue Profit-loss sharing sukuk over bonds, and fixed income sukuk is placed before equity beyond firms' maximum leverage. Thus, sukuk can widen the external funding spectrum, and the modified pecking order can accommodate sukuk. Chapter IV looks at the investors of such instruments. We investigate the Islamic banks' product mix to verify the claim that Islamic banks are identical to conventional banks due to the concentration of debt-like products. We hand-collected the values of each Islamic banking product otherwise aggregated under "loans". We document that while debt-like products positively affect bank performance, profit-loss sharing products enhance solvency. Contrary to theoretical claims, Islamic banks portfolios are not concentrated. Chapter I introduces Islamic finance and products, while Chapter V concludes.Three essays in labour economicsMansoor, Nayhahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/195062021-07-22T14:46:55Z2020-06-26T00:00:00ZThis thesis extends the existing literature on the response of labour markets to different types of economic shocks. First, we examine the effects of sector-specific fluctuations in job separation and job finding rates on the overall unemployment, sectoral allocation of labour and wages by solving a two-sector search and matching model with heterogeneous workers. The simulated results show how sector-specific shocks spill over the rest of the economy, causing workers to relocate between sectors in search of jobs. Inter-sectoral reallocation depends on the distribution of worker productivity in the affected sector. When an adverse shock hits a sector that attracts workers with relatively low productivity, the most productive among displaced workers move to compete for jobs in the sector with higher productivity. This offsets some of the increase in unemployment, subject to the ability of unaffected sector to employ additional workers. Next, we conduct meta-analysis to explain discrepancies between estimated effects of immigration shocks on wages in the literature. The results show that wage impact of immigration tends to be small in magnitude and negative significant. Labour market conditions at the period of study play a significant role in explaining the differences in measured impact. The estimates vary across countries and are related to the choice of modelling approach and estimators. Finally, we use EU-LFS dataset to analyse unemployment and labour market flows in Europe between 2006 and 2016. We identify the relative impact of shocks to job finding and separation rates on unemployment and investigate the role of socio-demographics, urbanisation and immigration status in shaping worker flow patterns in Europe. We find that over the studied period job losses accounted for three quarters of the rise in unemployment. The analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the unemployed shows that young and less educated workers contributed the most to employment losses. Recent and intermediate immigrants in cities contributed to employment losses.
2020-06-26T00:00:00ZMansoor, NayhaThis thesis extends the existing literature on the response of labour markets to different types of economic shocks. First, we examine the effects of sector-specific fluctuations in job separation and job finding rates on the overall unemployment, sectoral allocation of labour and wages by solving a two-sector search and matching model with heterogeneous workers. The simulated results show how sector-specific shocks spill over the rest of the economy, causing workers to relocate between sectors in search of jobs. Inter-sectoral reallocation depends on the distribution of worker productivity in the affected sector. When an adverse shock hits a sector that attracts workers with relatively low productivity, the most productive among displaced workers move to compete for jobs in the sector with higher productivity. This offsets some of the increase in unemployment, subject to the ability of unaffected sector to employ additional workers. Next, we conduct meta-analysis to explain discrepancies between estimated effects of immigration shocks on wages in the literature. The results show that wage impact of immigration tends to be small in magnitude and negative significant. Labour market conditions at the period of study play a significant role in explaining the differences in measured impact. The estimates vary across countries and are related to the choice of modelling approach and estimators. Finally, we use EU-LFS dataset to analyse unemployment and labour market flows in Europe between 2006 and 2016. We identify the relative impact of shocks to job finding and separation rates on unemployment and investigate the role of socio-demographics, urbanisation and immigration status in shaping worker flow patterns in Europe. We find that over the studied period job losses accounted for three quarters of the rise in unemployment. The analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the unemployed shows that young and less educated workers contributed the most to employment losses. Recent and intermediate immigrants in cities contributed to employment losses.A network analysis of consumer choices of telecommunications providers in the UK and ChinaQi, Beihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/190552021-03-16T16:16:40Z2019-06-28T00:00:00ZThis thesis empirically compares the network effect in the mobile telecommunications
between the United Kingdom and the People’s Republic of China. Institutional and
regulatory differences between these countries enable an interesting comparative
analysis. Data was obtained from questionnaires submitted to Chinese and UK
university students. Using both quantitative and econometric techniques, this thesis
finds that, under tariff-mediated network effects, consumers within the same social
network tend to coordinate their choice of mobile service providers. This coordination
behaviour is not significant in the absence of such induced network effects, suggesting
that the source of influence is local network effects, rather than learning spillovers or
peer pressure. The study has important implications for regulation in network
industries. In the UK mobile market, regulation on telecommunications infrastructure
and network access encourages competition between service providers; while in PR
China, price regulation on network service limits the pricing strategy for firms,
resulting in a market dominated by the incumbent.
2019-06-28T00:00:00ZQi, BeiThis thesis empirically compares the network effect in the mobile telecommunications
between the United Kingdom and the People’s Republic of China. Institutional and
regulatory differences between these countries enable an interesting comparative
analysis. Data was obtained from questionnaires submitted to Chinese and UK
university students. Using both quantitative and econometric techniques, this thesis
finds that, under tariff-mediated network effects, consumers within the same social
network tend to coordinate their choice of mobile service providers. This coordination
behaviour is not significant in the absence of such induced network effects, suggesting
that the source of influence is local network effects, rather than learning spillovers or
peer pressure. The study has important implications for regulation in network
industries. In the UK mobile market, regulation on telecommunications infrastructure
and network access encourages competition between service providers; while in PR
China, price regulation on network service limits the pricing strategy for firms,
resulting in a market dominated by the incumbent.Essays on proactive detection of collusion, ex post analysis of competition policy actions, and estimating overchargeCorus, Sinanhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/186092019-10-05T02:05:53Z2018-12-06T00:00:00ZThis work is an empirical analysis of collusion by using a private consumer level
data set in a setting where no a priori knowledge of collusion exists. This study
benefits from spatial variation in the data. For identification, the relation between
price and local market power under different assumptions of conduct is central.
Accordingly, first, using a simple theoretical background I provide some theoretical
intuition for the measure of local market power used in this work. Second, while
controlling for demand and cost shifters and using OLS and GMM, I estimate
pricing equations to explore if market patterns are more consistent with collusion or
competition. Results suggest that consistent with a regime switch from collusion to
competition, stable relations in the market are disrupted after month seven. Third, I
estimate the hypothetical overcharge associated with this finding. To this aim, first,
I employ the techniques frequently used in collusion retrospectives; second, I propose
importing empirical strategies from merger retrospectives. Adopting the techniques
that are used widely in merger retrospectives to collusion involves either using i) basic
difference-in-difference framework where locations characterised by monopolistic
pricing even in competition are set as the control group for the counterfactual of
regime switch; or, ii) difference-in-difference framework with treatment intensity,
where the regime switch is treated as a treatment, which, at each location, produces
heterogeneous effects that is inversely proportional to the level of local market
power the provider enjoys at that location. I find that overcharge estimates using
alternative methodologies range in 7.48-13.98%. Furthermore, results suggest that
if the spatial dynamics are ignored, estimation leads to under-compensation in regions
where the market powers of dominant competitor and potential competitor converge;
overcompensation in regions where the market powers diverge. Finally, to address
the inference problems associated with spatial dependency across observations
and difference-in-difference methodology, I apply various remedies proposed in the
literature. The findings are robust to alternative methods of inference.
2018-12-06T00:00:00ZCorus, SinanThis work is an empirical analysis of collusion by using a private consumer level
data set in a setting where no a priori knowledge of collusion exists. This study
benefits from spatial variation in the data. For identification, the relation between
price and local market power under different assumptions of conduct is central.
Accordingly, first, using a simple theoretical background I provide some theoretical
intuition for the measure of local market power used in this work. Second, while
controlling for demand and cost shifters and using OLS and GMM, I estimate
pricing equations to explore if market patterns are more consistent with collusion or
competition. Results suggest that consistent with a regime switch from collusion to
competition, stable relations in the market are disrupted after month seven. Third, I
estimate the hypothetical overcharge associated with this finding. To this aim, first,
I employ the techniques frequently used in collusion retrospectives; second, I propose
importing empirical strategies from merger retrospectives. Adopting the techniques
that are used widely in merger retrospectives to collusion involves either using i) basic
difference-in-difference framework where locations characterised by monopolistic
pricing even in competition are set as the control group for the counterfactual of
regime switch; or, ii) difference-in-difference framework with treatment intensity,
where the regime switch is treated as a treatment, which, at each location, produces
heterogeneous effects that is inversely proportional to the level of local market
power the provider enjoys at that location. I find that overcharge estimates using
alternative methodologies range in 7.48-13.98%. Furthermore, results suggest that
if the spatial dynamics are ignored, estimation leads to under-compensation in regions
where the market powers of dominant competitor and potential competitor converge;
overcompensation in regions where the market powers diverge. Finally, to address
the inference problems associated with spatial dependency across observations
and difference-in-difference methodology, I apply various remedies proposed in the
literature. The findings are robust to alternative methods of inference.On the factors of innovation and economic growthChernyshev, Nikolayhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/186082019-10-17T12:00:59Z2018-12-06T00:00:00ZOne could hardly overstate the importance of economic growth and innovation
as the engine of continuous improvement in the quality of life and wellbeing.
This dissertation seeks to improve our understanding of factors impacting
on economic growth and the process of innovating.
Chapter 1 underscores that exploring the relationship between competition
and innovation requires consistency in the way innovation is measured and
proxied. It shows that a failure to do so can lead to conflicting conclusions on
how competition affects innovation.
Chapter 2 explores the literature on the relationship between business
cycles and innovation to argue that existing evidence is conflicting and implies
that research and development (R&D) activities respond positively to downturns
at the level of individual firms (i.e. are countercyclical) but negatively at that of
sectors and economies (i.e. are procyclical). The chapter explains this regularity
through the procyclicality of fluctuations in the number of R&D performers,
which offsets the countercyclicality of individual R&D profiles and makes it look
procyclical at the aggregate level.
Chapter 3 documents and analyses the positive link between the strength
of intersectoral connections within an economy, and its growth. To explain this
regularity, it develops a tractable theoretical framework whereby tighter connections
bring about stronger propagation downstream of productivity growth
episodes in individual firms and sectors. Analysing the framework yields stark
testable predictions on the most growth-enhancing structure of the intersectoral
linkage.
2018-12-06T00:00:00ZChernyshev, NikolayOne could hardly overstate the importance of economic growth and innovation
as the engine of continuous improvement in the quality of life and wellbeing.
This dissertation seeks to improve our understanding of factors impacting
on economic growth and the process of innovating.
Chapter 1 underscores that exploring the relationship between competition
and innovation requires consistency in the way innovation is measured and
proxied. It shows that a failure to do so can lead to conflicting conclusions on
how competition affects innovation.
Chapter 2 explores the literature on the relationship between business
cycles and innovation to argue that existing evidence is conflicting and implies
that research and development (R&D) activities respond positively to downturns
at the level of individual firms (i.e. are countercyclical) but negatively at that of
sectors and economies (i.e. are procyclical). The chapter explains this regularity
through the procyclicality of fluctuations in the number of R&D performers,
which offsets the countercyclicality of individual R&D profiles and makes it look
procyclical at the aggregate level.
Chapter 3 documents and analyses the positive link between the strength
of intersectoral connections within an economy, and its growth. To explain this
regularity, it develops a tractable theoretical framework whereby tighter connections
bring about stronger propagation downstream of productivity growth
episodes in individual firms and sectors. Analysing the framework yields stark
testable predictions on the most growth-enhancing structure of the intersectoral
linkage.Empirical essays on dynamic decision makingXu, Zhibohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/183652021-03-25T16:29:11Z2019-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is a collection of empirical and experimental studies on dynamic decision
making.
Chapter 1 studies the non-linear incentive of academics in economics departments of
the U.K. high education institutions based on the data throughout the last four
RAEs/REFs (i.e., RAE1996, RAE2001, RAE2008, REF2014). The time-discontinuity
features of the RAEs/REFs and the constraints on job moving result in academics facing
non-linear incentives. The data shows that in a harsh working environment with a
periodical decline of the UK economics study, academic economists respond to such
incentives by postponing the publication of their high-quality outputs to the beginning
of the next assessment period, as expected.
Chapter 2 presents an experiment designed to study how people play a two-person two-stage
dynamic game with incomplete information and uncertainty and to study the
effect of different elicitation methods on equilibrium and level-k play. The experimental
data shows that around half of the subjects are strategic thinkers and level-k thinking
dominates in strategic thinking. Furthermore, the comparison between the direct-response
and
the
strategy
method
reveals
that
the
latter
method
has
a
negative
effect
on
players’
strategic
thinking.
Chapter 3 is an experimental study of the intertemporal consumption and saving
behaviour of agents who have a finite lifecycle in an endowment economy in the
presence of two different time profiles of taxes. A series of farsighted models (i.e.,
rational expectation and adaptive learning) and myopic models are introduced to
explain players’ saving behaviour in the presence of a tax decrease in the middle of their
lifecycle. In this setting, the data analysis shows that most of the subjects’ behaviours
are consistent with the suggestions of myopic models.
2019-01-01T00:00:00ZXu, ZhiboThis thesis is a collection of empirical and experimental studies on dynamic decision
making.
Chapter 1 studies the non-linear incentive of academics in economics departments of
the U.K. high education institutions based on the data throughout the last four
RAEs/REFs (i.e., RAE1996, RAE2001, RAE2008, REF2014). The time-discontinuity
features of the RAEs/REFs and the constraints on job moving result in academics facing
non-linear incentives. The data shows that in a harsh working environment with a
periodical decline of the UK economics study, academic economists respond to such
incentives by postponing the publication of their high-quality outputs to the beginning
of the next assessment period, as expected.
Chapter 2 presents an experiment designed to study how people play a two-person two-stage
dynamic game with incomplete information and uncertainty and to study the
effect of different elicitation methods on equilibrium and level-k play. The experimental
data shows that around half of the subjects are strategic thinkers and level-k thinking
dominates in strategic thinking. Furthermore, the comparison between the direct-response
and
the
strategy
method
reveals
that
the
latter
method
has
a
negative
effect
on
players’
strategic
thinking.
Chapter 3 is an experimental study of the intertemporal consumption and saving
behaviour of agents who have a finite lifecycle in an endowment economy in the
presence of two different time profiles of taxes. A series of farsighted models (i.e.,
rational expectation and adaptive learning) and myopic models are introduced to
explain players’ saving behaviour in the presence of a tax decrease in the middle of their
lifecycle. In this setting, the data analysis shows that most of the subjects’ behaviours
are consistent with the suggestions of myopic models.Education, income and happiness : panel evidence for the UKFitzRoy, Felix R.Nolan, Michael A.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/165812023-04-25T23:55:34Z2018-11-14T00:00:00ZUsing panel data from the BHPS and its Understanding Society extension, we study life satisfaction (LS) and income over nearly two decades, for samples split by education, and age, to our knowledge for the first time. The highly educated went from lowest to highest LS, though their average income was always higher. In spite of rapid income growth up to 2008/2009, the less educated showed no rise in LS, while highly educated LS rose after the crash despite declining real income. In panel LS regressions with individual fixed effects, none of the income variables was significant for the highly educated.
2018-11-14T00:00:00ZFitzRoy, Felix R.Nolan, Michael A.Using panel data from the BHPS and its Understanding Society extension, we study life satisfaction (LS) and income over nearly two decades, for samples split by education, and age, to our knowledge for the first time. The highly educated went from lowest to highest LS, though their average income was always higher. In spite of rapid income growth up to 2008/2009, the less educated showed no rise in LS, while highly educated LS rose after the crash despite declining real income. In panel LS regressions with individual fixed effects, none of the income variables was significant for the highly educated.Essays on cartel policy with endogenous cartel sizeKalb, Jonashttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/162962019-10-18T02:02:19Z2018-06-29T00:00:00ZThis thesis examines the role of endogenous size processes in the stability and price setting decisions of cartels. Chapter One analyses how the stability of cartels de- pends on the level of horizontal product differentiation and on costs of collusion under the premise that a cartel can consist of less than all firms in an industry. It is shown that when the size of the cartel is determined endogenously, it is possible that increased costs of collusion make a cartel more stable.
Chapter Two analyses how the price setting of firms in collusive industries is affected by three different penalty regimes: i) profits, ii) overcharge, and iii) revenue based penalties. It is found that penalties influence price setting in two ways: directly, by affecting the industry price for a given cartel size and indirectly by affecting cartel size and thereby the price charged. When the penalties are equally tough, in the sense that they deter cartels over the same group of products, over- charge based penalties always lead to the lowest prices, followed by prices computed under profits based penalties and then revenue based penalties. For very few combinations of product differentiation and market size, revenue based penalties lead to lower prices than profits based penalties.
Finally, Chapter Three presents a model in which collusive stability is analysed in a dynamic setting of free entry, exit and mergers. Contrary to the previous literature it shows that stable and profitable collusion is possible under free entry, without the need for cartels to play entry deterring strategies. Furthermore, the empirical evidence that a breakdown of collusion can lead to increased merger activity is replicated. An additional contribution of this model is that it defines a new notion of a long run sustainable competitive market size under merger and entry.
2018-06-29T00:00:00ZKalb, JonasThis thesis examines the role of endogenous size processes in the stability and price setting decisions of cartels. Chapter One analyses how the stability of cartels de- pends on the level of horizontal product differentiation and on costs of collusion under the premise that a cartel can consist of less than all firms in an industry. It is shown that when the size of the cartel is determined endogenously, it is possible that increased costs of collusion make a cartel more stable.
Chapter Two analyses how the price setting of firms in collusive industries is affected by three different penalty regimes: i) profits, ii) overcharge, and iii) revenue based penalties. It is found that penalties influence price setting in two ways: directly, by affecting the industry price for a given cartel size and indirectly by affecting cartel size and thereby the price charged. When the penalties are equally tough, in the sense that they deter cartels over the same group of products, over- charge based penalties always lead to the lowest prices, followed by prices computed under profits based penalties and then revenue based penalties. For very few combinations of product differentiation and market size, revenue based penalties lead to lower prices than profits based penalties.
Finally, Chapter Three presents a model in which collusive stability is analysed in a dynamic setting of free entry, exit and mergers. Contrary to the previous literature it shows that stable and profitable collusion is possible under free entry, without the need for cartels to play entry deterring strategies. Furthermore, the empirical evidence that a breakdown of collusion can lead to increased merger activity is replicated. An additional contribution of this model is that it defines a new notion of a long run sustainable competitive market size under merger and entry.Essays on categorical and universal welfare provision : design, optimal taxation and enforcement issues.Slack, Sean Edwardhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/156592019-03-29T15:53:20Z2016-06-24T00:00:00ZPart I comprises three chapters (2-4) that analyse the optimal combination of a universal benefit (B≥0) and categorical benefit (C≥0) for an economy where individuals differ in both their ability to work and, if able to work, their productivity. C is ex-ante conditioned on applicants being unable to work, and ex-post conditioned on recipients not working.
In Chapter 2 the benefit budget is fixed but the test awarding C makes Type I and Type II errors. Type I errors guarantee B>0 at the optimum to ensure all unable individuals have positive consumption. The analysis with Type II errors depends on the enforcement of the ex-post condition. Under No Enforcement C>0 at the optimum conditional on the awards test having some discriminatory power; whilst maximum welfare falls with both error propensities. Under Full Enforcement C>0 at the optimum always; and whilst maximum welfare falls with the Type I error propensity it may increase with the Type II error propensity.
Chapters 3 and 4 generalise the analysis to a linear-income tax framework. In Chapter 3 categorical status is perfectly observable. Optimal linear and piecewise-linear tax expressions are written more generally to capture cases where it is suboptimal to finance categorical transfers to eliminate inequality in the average social marginal value of income. Chapter 4 then derives the optimal linear income tax for the case with classification errors and Full Enforcement. Both equity and efficiency considerations capture the incentives an increase in the tax rate generates for able individuals to apply for C.
Part II (Chapter 5) focuses on the decisions of individuals to work when receiving C, given a risk of being detected and fined proportional to C. Under CARA preferences the risk premium associated with the variance in benefit income is convex-increasing in C, thus giving C a role in enforcement.
2016-06-24T00:00:00ZSlack, Sean EdwardPart I comprises three chapters (2-4) that analyse the optimal combination of a universal benefit (B≥0) and categorical benefit (C≥0) for an economy where individuals differ in both their ability to work and, if able to work, their productivity. C is ex-ante conditioned on applicants being unable to work, and ex-post conditioned on recipients not working.
In Chapter 2 the benefit budget is fixed but the test awarding C makes Type I and Type II errors. Type I errors guarantee B>0 at the optimum to ensure all unable individuals have positive consumption. The analysis with Type II errors depends on the enforcement of the ex-post condition. Under No Enforcement C>0 at the optimum conditional on the awards test having some discriminatory power; whilst maximum welfare falls with both error propensities. Under Full Enforcement C>0 at the optimum always; and whilst maximum welfare falls with the Type I error propensity it may increase with the Type II error propensity.
Chapters 3 and 4 generalise the analysis to a linear-income tax framework. In Chapter 3 categorical status is perfectly observable. Optimal linear and piecewise-linear tax expressions are written more generally to capture cases where it is suboptimal to finance categorical transfers to eliminate inequality in the average social marginal value of income. Chapter 4 then derives the optimal linear income tax for the case with classification errors and Full Enforcement. Both equity and efficiency considerations capture the incentives an increase in the tax rate generates for able individuals to apply for C.
Part II (Chapter 5) focuses on the decisions of individuals to work when receiving C, given a risk of being detected and fined proportional to C. Under CARA preferences the risk premium associated with the variance in benefit income is convex-increasing in C, thus giving C a role in enforcement.Economical and statistical analysis of raw cotton exports under bilateral trade and payments agreements in Egypt in the period 1948-1964Mansour, Ali Hafezhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/153572019-03-29T15:50:00Z1970-01-01T00:00:00ZThe increasing globalisation of business activities since the Second World War might seem to indicate the end of economic diversity within and among nations, and to point towards the standardisation of business recipes across the industrialised world. However, various cross-cultural studies have revealed considerable differences among organisations even within the fairly narrow context of Europe (for example. Lane, 1989; 1992), which are attributed to differences in the institutional environments in which the organisations are embedded. Institutional theorists argue that contingency theorists' emphasis on the influence of the task environment of an organisation, and cultural theorists' focus on the influence of ideational factors, are not sufficient to explain the continuing diversity of organisations across nations. This research analyses the influence of the institutional environment on the business recipe of private sector organisations. It thus combines institutional theories of organisations and the concept of business recipes. The companies analysed are Esso in Britain and Germany. Given that Esso in both countries is part of the Exxon Corporation, the research not only considers the influence of the national institutional environment, but also offers insights into the workings of a multinational organisation. In-depth case studies of both companies were undertaken by way of interviews and documentary research. These case studies were contextualised by research into areas such as the nature of the petroleum industry, the economic context of the companies, and the history and policy of Exxon Corporation. The case studies reveal that despite each company's common dependence on Exxon and a fair degree of similarity in the technical factors of their environments, they have distinctive features in their business recipes, and these can be attributed to the configurations of the respective institutional environments. The study illustrates the need for the managers to cope with conflicting institutional pressures, especially from their parent company and the national institutional context. Overall, the findings support the view of institutional theorists (for example Lane, 1989; Whitley, 1992a) that economic diversity among countries will persist as long as the configurations of key national institutions differ.
1970-01-01T00:00:00ZMansour, Ali HafezThe increasing globalisation of business activities since the Second World War might seem to indicate the end of economic diversity within and among nations, and to point towards the standardisation of business recipes across the industrialised world. However, various cross-cultural studies have revealed considerable differences among organisations even within the fairly narrow context of Europe (for example. Lane, 1989; 1992), which are attributed to differences in the institutional environments in which the organisations are embedded. Institutional theorists argue that contingency theorists' emphasis on the influence of the task environment of an organisation, and cultural theorists' focus on the influence of ideational factors, are not sufficient to explain the continuing diversity of organisations across nations. This research analyses the influence of the institutional environment on the business recipe of private sector organisations. It thus combines institutional theories of organisations and the concept of business recipes. The companies analysed are Esso in Britain and Germany. Given that Esso in both countries is part of the Exxon Corporation, the research not only considers the influence of the national institutional environment, but also offers insights into the workings of a multinational organisation. In-depth case studies of both companies were undertaken by way of interviews and documentary research. These case studies were contextualised by research into areas such as the nature of the petroleum industry, the economic context of the companies, and the history and policy of Exxon Corporation. The case studies reveal that despite each company's common dependence on Exxon and a fair degree of similarity in the technical factors of their environments, they have distinctive features in their business recipes, and these can be attributed to the configurations of the respective institutional environments. The study illustrates the need for the managers to cope with conflicting institutional pressures, especially from their parent company and the national institutional context. Overall, the findings support the view of institutional theorists (for example Lane, 1989; Whitley, 1992a) that economic diversity among countries will persist as long as the configurations of key national institutions differ.Management of the British national debt (1950-62) with special reference to monetary policyAhmed, A. A. M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/153492019-03-29T15:53:26Z1965-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is interested in the problem of debt management during the nineteen-fifties. National debt has now a days grown, especially after two world wars, to fantastic figures in many of the advanced countries. For this reason, the problem of the national debt has become an inevitable subject for discussion not only in Britain, but also in many other countries. National debt was, indeed, on incidental subject in the Britain literature. One of the prominent economists wrote, in the early years of the fifties, a little book expressing his dissatisfaction with this neglect of the problem of the debt: "its aim [the book's] is primarily to provoke discussion on the subject of the role of the national debt in our economic system, a question which has never been treated in full in any published work in this country. A quarter of a country has passed since Eargeaves wrote the only exhaustive study of the national debt, and a great deal of water has passed under the bridge since then. Even the learned journals are innocent of any full discussion of the significance and functions of the British national debt, in very sharp contrast with their opposite numbers in the united states of America." The events of the 1950's, with the activation of monetary policy, have however attracted more and more attention to the role of the national debt in the economic life of the nation. And become a lively subject for discussion. This thesis will try to discuss the significance of the British national debt form different points of view. Nevertheless, the close relationship between debt management and the monetary policy obliges us to devote the greater part of the study to the impact of debt on the monetary policy. However, For purposes of analysis, this work is divided into five parts as follows:- I- an introductory part on the structure, the growth and the ownership of the debt. II- Part two traces the impact of various types of debt on the course of monetary policy, i.e. discusses monetary policy in relation to debt management. III- Part Three tries to assess the effectiveness of this function of the debt. IV- Part four gauges the cost of monetary policy. V- The analysis is extended in part five to involve economic growth in relation to debt management. The period of the analysis covers the 1950's. "The nineteen-fifties are a particularly interesting period in the economic history of the United kingdom." This period has been, indeed, one of real growth in output. But it has been also characterized by severe inflation. To be more accurate, the analysis deals with the period beginning with the end of 1951 when monetary policy started to be applied more actively than in the preceding years. However, it may be profitable to extend the analysis to include the early years of the 1960's (i.e. 1960-62) in order to bring it, as far as possible, up to date. Lastly, this thesis is a theoretical as well as a statistical one.
1965-01-01T00:00:00ZAhmed, A. A. M.This thesis is interested in the problem of debt management during the nineteen-fifties. National debt has now a days grown, especially after two world wars, to fantastic figures in many of the advanced countries. For this reason, the problem of the national debt has become an inevitable subject for discussion not only in Britain, but also in many other countries. National debt was, indeed, on incidental subject in the Britain literature. One of the prominent economists wrote, in the early years of the fifties, a little book expressing his dissatisfaction with this neglect of the problem of the debt: "its aim [the book's] is primarily to provoke discussion on the subject of the role of the national debt in our economic system, a question which has never been treated in full in any published work in this country. A quarter of a country has passed since Eargeaves wrote the only exhaustive study of the national debt, and a great deal of water has passed under the bridge since then. Even the learned journals are innocent of any full discussion of the significance and functions of the British national debt, in very sharp contrast with their opposite numbers in the united states of America." The events of the 1950's, with the activation of monetary policy, have however attracted more and more attention to the role of the national debt in the economic life of the nation. And become a lively subject for discussion. This thesis will try to discuss the significance of the British national debt form different points of view. Nevertheless, the close relationship between debt management and the monetary policy obliges us to devote the greater part of the study to the impact of debt on the monetary policy. However, For purposes of analysis, this work is divided into five parts as follows:- I- an introductory part on the structure, the growth and the ownership of the debt. II- Part two traces the impact of various types of debt on the course of monetary policy, i.e. discusses monetary policy in relation to debt management. III- Part Three tries to assess the effectiveness of this function of the debt. IV- Part four gauges the cost of monetary policy. V- The analysis is extended in part five to involve economic growth in relation to debt management. The period of the analysis covers the 1950's. "The nineteen-fifties are a particularly interesting period in the economic history of the United kingdom." This period has been, indeed, one of real growth in output. But it has been also characterized by severe inflation. To be more accurate, the analysis deals with the period beginning with the end of 1951 when monetary policy started to be applied more actively than in the preceding years. However, it may be profitable to extend the analysis to include the early years of the 1960's (i.e. 1960-62) in order to bring it, as far as possible, up to date. Lastly, this thesis is a theoretical as well as a statistical one.Macroeconometric forecasting in developing countries with special reference to fiscal policy : a case study of IndiaSrivastava, Dinesh Kumarhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/153472019-07-15T10:14:46Z1979-01-01T00:00:00ZThis work was undertaken with a view to construct a macroeconometric model for the Indian economy for purposes of forecasting and policy simulation. As a prelude to this exercise, we have surveyed available forecasting techniques, techniques of evaluation of forecasts and forecasting models and the issues concerning the use of macroeconometric models in the context of policy analysis. We have also considered specific issues and considerations relevant in the context of developing countries. As a second step towards providing a proper perspective to our model, and to derive useful guidelines, we have surveyed and reviewed existing macro-econometric models of the Indian economy. This survey concerns the models built by Narasimham, Choudhry, Krishnamurty, Krishnamurty-Choudhry, Marwah, Mammen, Agarwala, Pandit, Gupta, Bhattacharya and UNCTAD. We notice that an interesting variety of sectoral emphasis is offered in these models although in general they are all based on the IS-LM framework. As a part of the review of the existing models, we have re-estimated three models, viz., models by Choudhry, Marwah and Bhattacharya under common sample conditions and estimation techniques and have compared their forecasting performance against alternative autoregressive benchmark models. In general, the benchmark models do better but the performance of Bhattacharya and Marwah models, in their adapted versions, seems to be satisfactory. A common shortcoming of all these models is an underexploration of the fiscal sector of the economy. Generally, the government budget restraint has been ignored, the treatment of tax functions is highly aggregated and all government expenditure variables are treated as exogenous. Furthermore, the estimates in these models have become dated because of major data revisions. On these grounds and also as a part of continuing efforts towards building macroeconometric models for the Indian economy, we have specified, estimated and analysed a new model containing thirty four equations out of which eighteen are stochastic. Its special features are an endogenous treatment of government consumption expenditure, a disaggregated treatment of tax-revenue functions, an endogenous money-supply function and a distinction between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in terms of prices, outputs and investments. The model is estimated by mixed estimation procedures. In particular, two stage least squares with subsets of predetermined variables in the first stage and with first order autoregressive corrections in a few cases have been used. The model is used for forecasting and policy simulation. Its forecasting performance, within the sample period, and in a 'pseudo' forecast period is found to be satisfactory compared against 'naive' and 'not-so-naive' extrapolative benchmark models. Various policy simulations have been done and subsequently the model is used for conditional forecasting. We find that increases in government consumption expenditure have detrimental effects on real output, that changes in tax-rates and discount rates have very marginal impact on the system and that important policy changes relate to expenditure variables and government deficit financing.
1979-01-01T00:00:00ZSrivastava, Dinesh KumarThis work was undertaken with a view to construct a macroeconometric model for the Indian economy for purposes of forecasting and policy simulation. As a prelude to this exercise, we have surveyed available forecasting techniques, techniques of evaluation of forecasts and forecasting models and the issues concerning the use of macroeconometric models in the context of policy analysis. We have also considered specific issues and considerations relevant in the context of developing countries. As a second step towards providing a proper perspective to our model, and to derive useful guidelines, we have surveyed and reviewed existing macro-econometric models of the Indian economy. This survey concerns the models built by Narasimham, Choudhry, Krishnamurty, Krishnamurty-Choudhry, Marwah, Mammen, Agarwala, Pandit, Gupta, Bhattacharya and UNCTAD. We notice that an interesting variety of sectoral emphasis is offered in these models although in general they are all based on the IS-LM framework. As a part of the review of the existing models, we have re-estimated three models, viz., models by Choudhry, Marwah and Bhattacharya under common sample conditions and estimation techniques and have compared their forecasting performance against alternative autoregressive benchmark models. In general, the benchmark models do better but the performance of Bhattacharya and Marwah models, in their adapted versions, seems to be satisfactory. A common shortcoming of all these models is an underexploration of the fiscal sector of the economy. Generally, the government budget restraint has been ignored, the treatment of tax functions is highly aggregated and all government expenditure variables are treated as exogenous. Furthermore, the estimates in these models have become dated because of major data revisions. On these grounds and also as a part of continuing efforts towards building macroeconometric models for the Indian economy, we have specified, estimated and analysed a new model containing thirty four equations out of which eighteen are stochastic. Its special features are an endogenous treatment of government consumption expenditure, a disaggregated treatment of tax-revenue functions, an endogenous money-supply function and a distinction between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in terms of prices, outputs and investments. The model is estimated by mixed estimation procedures. In particular, two stage least squares with subsets of predetermined variables in the first stage and with first order autoregressive corrections in a few cases have been used. The model is used for forecasting and policy simulation. Its forecasting performance, within the sample period, and in a 'pseudo' forecast period is found to be satisfactory compared against 'naive' and 'not-so-naive' extrapolative benchmark models. Various policy simulations have been done and subsequently the model is used for conditional forecasting. We find that increases in government consumption expenditure have detrimental effects on real output, that changes in tax-rates and discount rates have very marginal impact on the system and that important policy changes relate to expenditure variables and government deficit financing.How does central bank independence affect the conduct and outcome of monetary policy? : A case study : Bank of England versus BundesbankKahrab, Kathrinhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/153452019-03-29T15:50:06Z1996-01-01T00:00:00ZThe question whether monetary policy should be subject to discretion or whether some kind of rule should be imposed upon its conduct has been and is subject to intensive debate. The theoretical rationale for central bank independence is to be found in the 'time-inconsistency' literature, which demonstrates that if monetary policy is entrusted in discretionary fashion to policy makers, they have an incentive to renege on their precommitment since they favour short-run output gains. The public forms expectations about the credibility of a pre-announced strategy of the policy maker. It is argued that an independent monetary authority, which is committed to price stability, would be an accountable player in the monetary policy game, removing the need for the wage bargainers to protect themselves against inflationary surprises. Many studies have been dedicated to approach the 'case for central bank independence' from the empirical side. Various indices of central bank independence have been developed, based on a uniform assessment procedure which allows a comparison of alternative monetary arrangements according to their degree of independence. An inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and central bank independence is generally advocated. The empirical findings, however, suggest a less clear-cut relationship than that claimed by the theoretical literature. To allow a well-founded statement about how central bank independence affects the conduct and outcome of monetary policy, one needs to look at different monetary regimes. The Bank of England, politically dependent on the government, and the independent German Bundesbank have been chosen as test cases. The inflationary performance of Germany has been on average better and more stable when compared to the United Kingdom's record. The respective monetary arrangement determined and had at times decisive influence on policy decisions. The discretionary regime in the United Kingdom allowed the authorities recourse to expansionary monetary policies, whereas this was impossible for the German government, since the Bundesbank conducts its policy independent from government directives and adheres to its pre-eminent task of safeguarding the currency. It is concluded that an independent central bank which is committed to price stability generates a better inflationary outcome than that achieved with a discretionary conduct of monetary policy. Furthermore, autonomy and the commitment to protecting the internal value of the currency are important devices for building an anti-inflationary reputation.
1996-01-01T00:00:00ZKahrab, KathrinThe question whether monetary policy should be subject to discretion or whether some kind of rule should be imposed upon its conduct has been and is subject to intensive debate. The theoretical rationale for central bank independence is to be found in the 'time-inconsistency' literature, which demonstrates that if monetary policy is entrusted in discretionary fashion to policy makers, they have an incentive to renege on their precommitment since they favour short-run output gains. The public forms expectations about the credibility of a pre-announced strategy of the policy maker. It is argued that an independent monetary authority, which is committed to price stability, would be an accountable player in the monetary policy game, removing the need for the wage bargainers to protect themselves against inflationary surprises. Many studies have been dedicated to approach the 'case for central bank independence' from the empirical side. Various indices of central bank independence have been developed, based on a uniform assessment procedure which allows a comparison of alternative monetary arrangements according to their degree of independence. An inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and central bank independence is generally advocated. The empirical findings, however, suggest a less clear-cut relationship than that claimed by the theoretical literature. To allow a well-founded statement about how central bank independence affects the conduct and outcome of monetary policy, one needs to look at different monetary regimes. The Bank of England, politically dependent on the government, and the independent German Bundesbank have been chosen as test cases. The inflationary performance of Germany has been on average better and more stable when compared to the United Kingdom's record. The respective monetary arrangement determined and had at times decisive influence on policy decisions. The discretionary regime in the United Kingdom allowed the authorities recourse to expansionary monetary policies, whereas this was impossible for the German government, since the Bundesbank conducts its policy independent from government directives and adheres to its pre-eminent task of safeguarding the currency. It is concluded that an independent central bank which is committed to price stability generates a better inflationary outcome than that achieved with a discretionary conduct of monetary policy. Furthermore, autonomy and the commitment to protecting the internal value of the currency are important devices for building an anti-inflationary reputation.Personnel management practices in Malaysia - the case of the State Economic Development CorporationsAli, Juhary Hajihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/153402019-03-29T15:53:20Z1994-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis examines personnel management policies and practices within the State Economic Development Corporations (SEDCs) of the Malaysian economy. It is concerned to explore and access the contemporary influence and significance of personnel managers and their policies on routine SEDC practices. Under the Malaysian government's New Economic Policy (NEP) of 1970, SEDCs are expected to provide employment, training and development of Bumiputra employees (i.e. Malay and other indigenous groups), to produce Bumiputra entrepreneurs and to increase their participation and ownership in the Malaysian commercial and industrial sectors. The empirical research which informs this thesis was designed to examine, first, whether these political, social and economic commitments have and do facilitate the development and emergence of personnel management in the SEDCs. Second, whether personnel managers currently play a significant role in ensuring that these objectives are met, and third whether there is a more significant contribution that personnel managers and policies could potentially make to the employment practices of SEDCs. An overall finding of the empirical research is that there are significant barriers restricting the presence and influence of professional personnel managers in SEDCs. In 8 out of 11 SEDCs there was no separate personnel function or specialised, trained personnel manager. These primary research findings both reflect and reinforce a theme that can be found in some of the more critical personnel management literature which highlights the potential difficulties faced by some personnel managers and the negative consequences of the absence of personnel department in a great variety of organisations, industries and countries. Studies of personnel management suggest that barriers to effective personnel management practices include: the low status of personnel managers, their subordinate relationship to line managers and the prevailing definition of organisational effectiveness that concentrates exclusively upon financial results. Many of the negative consequences of the absence of personnel management such as informalisation, inconsistency, inefficiency of personnel practices have been pointed out. In this research, various cultural, political, legal and structural factors that constitute barriers to personnel management were found. In most SEDCs, the economic and social contributions of the personnel management and the significant role of personnel managers were de-emphasized and neglected. The absence of formalised, decentralised and standardized personnel management causes ad hoc and unsystematic manpower planning and training, discrimination in selection and promotion and a lack of motivational practices. In addition to examining these barriers, the thesis also seeks to highlight where appropriate facilitators to the development of personnel management as well as the potential impact on SEDCs employment practices of personnel management practices and initiatives.
1994-01-01T00:00:00ZAli, Juhary HajiThis thesis examines personnel management policies and practices within the State Economic Development Corporations (SEDCs) of the Malaysian economy. It is concerned to explore and access the contemporary influence and significance of personnel managers and their policies on routine SEDC practices. Under the Malaysian government's New Economic Policy (NEP) of 1970, SEDCs are expected to provide employment, training and development of Bumiputra employees (i.e. Malay and other indigenous groups), to produce Bumiputra entrepreneurs and to increase their participation and ownership in the Malaysian commercial and industrial sectors. The empirical research which informs this thesis was designed to examine, first, whether these political, social and economic commitments have and do facilitate the development and emergence of personnel management in the SEDCs. Second, whether personnel managers currently play a significant role in ensuring that these objectives are met, and third whether there is a more significant contribution that personnel managers and policies could potentially make to the employment practices of SEDCs. An overall finding of the empirical research is that there are significant barriers restricting the presence and influence of professional personnel managers in SEDCs. In 8 out of 11 SEDCs there was no separate personnel function or specialised, trained personnel manager. These primary research findings both reflect and reinforce a theme that can be found in some of the more critical personnel management literature which highlights the potential difficulties faced by some personnel managers and the negative consequences of the absence of personnel department in a great variety of organisations, industries and countries. Studies of personnel management suggest that barriers to effective personnel management practices include: the low status of personnel managers, their subordinate relationship to line managers and the prevailing definition of organisational effectiveness that concentrates exclusively upon financial results. Many of the negative consequences of the absence of personnel management such as informalisation, inconsistency, inefficiency of personnel practices have been pointed out. In this research, various cultural, political, legal and structural factors that constitute barriers to personnel management were found. In most SEDCs, the economic and social contributions of the personnel management and the significant role of personnel managers were de-emphasized and neglected. The absence of formalised, decentralised and standardized personnel management causes ad hoc and unsystematic manpower planning and training, discrimination in selection and promotion and a lack of motivational practices. In addition to examining these barriers, the thesis also seeks to highlight where appropriate facilitators to the development of personnel management as well as the potential impact on SEDCs employment practices of personnel management practices and initiatives.The implementation and integration of CAD/CAM in manufacturing organisations: a grounded theory investigationTantoush, Tarek Mahmoud Kasimhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152902019-03-29T15:49:57Z1998-01-01T00:00:00ZNew technology has received increased attention in the literature over the past two decades. Information technology's profound economic, social, political, organisational, and psychological effects have been the subject matter of numerous studies. The wide-spread use of computers in manufacturing industry is an important area for research into what may look superficially as a purely technical change but turns out to be, in effect, as much about organisational adaptation as it is about the introduction of a technology system per se. The latter needs to fit the host organisational setting in order to operate and deliver and the former needs to fit the technology being introduced in order to make an effective use of it. Among other important computer technology applications in manufacturing industry (e.g. robotics, CAT and MRP-I), CAD was the subject matter of numerous research efforts during the 1970s and 80s. So was CAM but to a lesser degree. For the 1990s and beyond, however, the focus of research has shifted to concentrate on integrating technologies (e.g. MRP-II and CADCAM) used in manufacturing companies and often symbolised by the generic concept of CIM. Such technologies are more technically advanced in their own right but they also have greater implications for job design and work organisation. This thesis addresses the gap between precept and practice in CADCAM implementation as a technology-induced organisational integration process. The aim of the present research is to develop a better empirically-informed understanding of integration as an organisational change process by researching and comparing ten selected UK-based manufacturing companies' experiences. The emphasis in this study is on the discovery and development, rather than testing, of theory. Therefore, the underlying theory here is grounded in the data gathered through an oriented field research, rather than tested for verification purposes following a logic-deductive literature review. A qualitative, "grounded theory" methodological approach is used to meet the set objective on the basis of a defined link between the study's theoretical and methodological frameworks. The research strategy is designed to include a longitudinal case study approach which traces the companies' historical experiences of introducing CAD and CAM systems since the early 1970s (in the ten companies) and current experiences of interfacing them to create integrated CADCAM (in five of them - termed primary cases), as well as the lack of integration initiatives (in the other five companies - termed secondary cases). Seven tentative research questions are used to orient the field research initially. A conceptual model is then developed as a framework for the generation of theory: 20 substantive theoretical propositions on CAD/CAM and integration and, subsequently, 20 corresponding formal theoretical propositions on organisational change in general, of which 14 are presented in a hypothesis form. The findings have implications for directing the efforts of future organisational change, particularly in the area of CADCAM integration. They should be of interest to different individuals and groups who are involved in organisational change in one way or another. Senior and technical managers in particular may find them to be of importance in managing the organisational aspects of a strategic technological change process.
1998-01-01T00:00:00ZTantoush, Tarek Mahmoud KasimNew technology has received increased attention in the literature over the past two decades. Information technology's profound economic, social, political, organisational, and psychological effects have been the subject matter of numerous studies. The wide-spread use of computers in manufacturing industry is an important area for research into what may look superficially as a purely technical change but turns out to be, in effect, as much about organisational adaptation as it is about the introduction of a technology system per se. The latter needs to fit the host organisational setting in order to operate and deliver and the former needs to fit the technology being introduced in order to make an effective use of it. Among other important computer technology applications in manufacturing industry (e.g. robotics, CAT and MRP-I), CAD was the subject matter of numerous research efforts during the 1970s and 80s. So was CAM but to a lesser degree. For the 1990s and beyond, however, the focus of research has shifted to concentrate on integrating technologies (e.g. MRP-II and CADCAM) used in manufacturing companies and often symbolised by the generic concept of CIM. Such technologies are more technically advanced in their own right but they also have greater implications for job design and work organisation. This thesis addresses the gap between precept and practice in CADCAM implementation as a technology-induced organisational integration process. The aim of the present research is to develop a better empirically-informed understanding of integration as an organisational change process by researching and comparing ten selected UK-based manufacturing companies' experiences. The emphasis in this study is on the discovery and development, rather than testing, of theory. Therefore, the underlying theory here is grounded in the data gathered through an oriented field research, rather than tested for verification purposes following a logic-deductive literature review. A qualitative, "grounded theory" methodological approach is used to meet the set objective on the basis of a defined link between the study's theoretical and methodological frameworks. The research strategy is designed to include a longitudinal case study approach which traces the companies' historical experiences of introducing CAD and CAM systems since the early 1970s (in the ten companies) and current experiences of interfacing them to create integrated CADCAM (in five of them - termed primary cases), as well as the lack of integration initiatives (in the other five companies - termed secondary cases). Seven tentative research questions are used to orient the field research initially. A conceptual model is then developed as a framework for the generation of theory: 20 substantive theoretical propositions on CAD/CAM and integration and, subsequently, 20 corresponding formal theoretical propositions on organisational change in general, of which 14 are presented in a hypothesis form. The findings have implications for directing the efforts of future organisational change, particularly in the area of CADCAM integration. They should be of interest to different individuals and groups who are involved in organisational change in one way or another. Senior and technical managers in particular may find them to be of importance in managing the organisational aspects of a strategic technological change process.Saudi executives' value profiles: a theoretical and empirical studyAl-Naeem, Abdullatif Salehhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152882019-03-29T15:49:43Z1999-01-01T00:00:00ZThis study aims to add to the knowledge of previous research which has focused on individual values in developing countries in general and in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular (KSA). Only little serious research on values has been conducted in the Saudi business and management environment. The main objectives of this thesis are: to identify empirically the value profiles of Saudi executives in both their personal and managerial lives; to investigate the differences between the value profiles of specific groups of Saudi executives such as those at the top level and those of the middle levels and also those of listed (joint stock) and unlisted (private) business companies; to investigate the relationship between the personal and managerial value profiles of Saudi executives and their personal and organisational characteristics; and to identify the extent to which it is possible to classify the value profiles of Saudi executives in the private sector. In order to reach these objectives, a theoretical framework was developed through which Saudi executives' values could be identified and measured. The study was based upon Eduard Spranger's classification of values (Theoretical, Economic, Aesthetic, Social, Political and Religious), and Allport instrument "The Study of Values". The instrument was modified in terms of religious and cultural perspectives to be applicable to the Saudi environment and a new section was developed for measuring the relative strength of the six values in the executives' managerial lives. Overall, the results of this research show that the different groups of Saudi executives display a similar rank order of the six personal values across their personal and organisational backgrounds and a similar ranking of managerial values. Nevertheless, significant differences were found in both profiles of values within each individual group. Surprisingly, analysis of the results showed that managers at the top levels place less emphasis on Economic values than those at middles levels. The analysis also showed that those who work for listed companies placed more emphasis on Economic values than those in private firms. The results also suggest that Saudi executives with different personal and organisational characteristics do not share similar personal and managerial value profiles. Moreover, although average Saudi executives scored highest on the Economic values and lowest on the Aesthetic values in both profiles, they displayed different responses to the remaining four values in both value profiles. The results suggest that although average Saudi executives showed dissimilar personal and managerial value profiles, these profiles did relate, and that the general value system of Saudi executives could be deconstructed into three value profiles: the personal, managerial, and the personal-managerial interrelated profiles. With respect to the classification of value profiles, the results revealed that only four managerial value profiles with different ranking orders of the six classes of values are considered distinct to Saudi executives; Theoretical, Economic, Social, and Religious. Managers can thus be expected to show various types of behaviours when making their decisions as well as varying levels of managerial performance and organisational efficiency. Saudi business organisation, therefore, should choose those candidates with relevant value profiles from the four that have been identified in this study that best fit the goals and strategies of the organisation and place them in an appropriate environment in order to maximise the benefit from those individual's skills and experience. The various findings of this research, the theoretical and practical implications, and suggestions for future research in this field are presented in the last chapter of this thesis.
1999-01-01T00:00:00ZAl-Naeem, Abdullatif SalehThis study aims to add to the knowledge of previous research which has focused on individual values in developing countries in general and in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular (KSA). Only little serious research on values has been conducted in the Saudi business and management environment. The main objectives of this thesis are: to identify empirically the value profiles of Saudi executives in both their personal and managerial lives; to investigate the differences between the value profiles of specific groups of Saudi executives such as those at the top level and those of the middle levels and also those of listed (joint stock) and unlisted (private) business companies; to investigate the relationship between the personal and managerial value profiles of Saudi executives and their personal and organisational characteristics; and to identify the extent to which it is possible to classify the value profiles of Saudi executives in the private sector. In order to reach these objectives, a theoretical framework was developed through which Saudi executives' values could be identified and measured. The study was based upon Eduard Spranger's classification of values (Theoretical, Economic, Aesthetic, Social, Political and Religious), and Allport instrument "The Study of Values". The instrument was modified in terms of religious and cultural perspectives to be applicable to the Saudi environment and a new section was developed for measuring the relative strength of the six values in the executives' managerial lives. Overall, the results of this research show that the different groups of Saudi executives display a similar rank order of the six personal values across their personal and organisational backgrounds and a similar ranking of managerial values. Nevertheless, significant differences were found in both profiles of values within each individual group. Surprisingly, analysis of the results showed that managers at the top levels place less emphasis on Economic values than those at middles levels. The analysis also showed that those who work for listed companies placed more emphasis on Economic values than those in private firms. The results also suggest that Saudi executives with different personal and organisational characteristics do not share similar personal and managerial value profiles. Moreover, although average Saudi executives scored highest on the Economic values and lowest on the Aesthetic values in both profiles, they displayed different responses to the remaining four values in both value profiles. The results suggest that although average Saudi executives showed dissimilar personal and managerial value profiles, these profiles did relate, and that the general value system of Saudi executives could be deconstructed into three value profiles: the personal, managerial, and the personal-managerial interrelated profiles. With respect to the classification of value profiles, the results revealed that only four managerial value profiles with different ranking orders of the six classes of values are considered distinct to Saudi executives; Theoretical, Economic, Social, and Religious. Managers can thus be expected to show various types of behaviours when making their decisions as well as varying levels of managerial performance and organisational efficiency. Saudi business organisation, therefore, should choose those candidates with relevant value profiles from the four that have been identified in this study that best fit the goals and strategies of the organisation and place them in an appropriate environment in order to maximise the benefit from those individual's skills and experience. The various findings of this research, the theoretical and practical implications, and suggestions for future research in this field are presented in the last chapter of this thesis.The strategic implications of PR: a preliminary surveyMertens, Andreas S.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/152852019-03-29T15:53:27Z1997-01-01T00:00:00ZThe purpose of the following thesis is to elaborate on implications concerning the interrelation of PR and communication and an organization's strategic management. This is undertaken in two steps. First, a theoretical base is generated through literature research. In the second step the theoretical arguments are rechecked within a field research in companies. Starting with the literature part the work attempts, beyond the argumentation for a close connection between PR and strategic management to increase an organization's overall effectiveness, to come up with normative models which might be helpful to further the comprehension of, and support for, strategic PR and communication within organizations. The general implications on PR and communication as well as the models presented can serve to achieve this target. Moreover the concepts try to offer the PR practitioner normative tools to ease the analysis of an organization's most important publics - a prerequisite for the formulation of any company strategy. The models should help to detect communicational patterns and behaviour, expectations, needs, demands and wishes from an organization's environment. The field research part focuses on certain companies from differing sectors and their PR and communication principles and practices. By analysis of material provided by various companies and by questioning (questionnaire is appended) selected organizations the attempt is made to evaluate in how far the elaborated theoretical concepts are beneficial for practical PR work and the overall promotion of communication within organizations.
1997-01-01T00:00:00ZMertens, Andreas S.The purpose of the following thesis is to elaborate on implications concerning the interrelation of PR and communication and an organization's strategic management. This is undertaken in two steps. First, a theoretical base is generated through literature research. In the second step the theoretical arguments are rechecked within a field research in companies. Starting with the literature part the work attempts, beyond the argumentation for a close connection between PR and strategic management to increase an organization's overall effectiveness, to come up with normative models which might be helpful to further the comprehension of, and support for, strategic PR and communication within organizations. The general implications on PR and communication as well as the models presented can serve to achieve this target. Moreover the concepts try to offer the PR practitioner normative tools to ease the analysis of an organization's most important publics - a prerequisite for the formulation of any company strategy. The models should help to detect communicational patterns and behaviour, expectations, needs, demands and wishes from an organization's environment. The field research part focuses on certain companies from differing sectors and their PR and communication principles and practices. By analysis of material provided by various companies and by questioning (questionnaire is appended) selected organizations the attempt is made to evaluate in how far the elaborated theoretical concepts are beneficial for practical PR work and the overall promotion of communication within organizations.Trade, agriculture and industrialisation in the economic development of Ghana, 1951-1972Prah, David Wolseleyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152812019-03-29T15:53:38Z1981-01-01T00:00:00ZBy 1951 Ghana had developed into a primary produce exporter of some significance; its per capita income was one of the highest in tropical Africa. At the beginning of that year a ten-year development plan was implemented and shortly afterwards the country, incidentally, was granted internal self-government, an event which brought a nationalist party, the Convention Peoples Party (CPP), into office. Ghana's prosperity through the export trade has depended largely on cocoa, which at the beginning of the 1950s constituted more than 50 per cent of the value of the country's total exports. Because the crop had been noted for its high price instability, there was much talk in the country about the need to diversify agricultural output and the agricultural produce entering the export trade. Under the nationalist government the amount actually spent on the industrialisation programme represented an increasing percentage in the series of development plans which were implemented as from 1951: 3.5 per cent under the 1951 Plan; 8.1 per cent under the 1957-59 consolidated Plan and 15.3 per cent under the 2nd Development plan which began in 1959. On the other hand the amount spent on agriculture under each of the plans was about 5 per cent of the total expenditure. More importantly, with respect to agriculture the amount spent was a decreasing proportion of the planned estimates. Under the plans the Government failed either to expand or diversify the agricultural sector and as a result export earnings became stagnant after the mid-50's. In addition the agricultural sector failed to produce more food for the increasing population in the non-agricultural sectors and adequate raw materials for the nascent industrial sector. By the beginning of the 60's the high rate of industrialisation and the stagnant export earnings had resulted in the near depletion of the country's foreign exchange reserves which were accumulated mostly during and immediately after the second world war: Not desiring to reduce the tempo of industrialisation, the CPP Government imposed a series of controls in order to curb private consumption. At the same time the Government entered into wide range of supplier credit agreements mostly for industrial projects. The supplier financed manufacturing projects depends heavily on imported in-puts and were almost all "turn-key" projects. In the face of import controls most of them under-utilised their capacity and became high cost by world market prices. By 1966 Ghana's industrialisation programme had got the country into large foreign debt and in view of its stagnant agricultural sector there was increasing dependence on imported food. The price of cocoa fell steadily on the world market contrary to the expectation of the Government and the balance of payments worsened. The CPP government was overthrown in early 1966 and the new government that came into office, the National Liberation Council adopted different measures to rehabilitate the economy, especially by cancelling prestigious projects and reducing the central governments expenditure so as to bring it in line with its revenue. The other measures adopted included the devaluation of the national currency by 30 per cent in 1967, the adoption of a two-year development plan which included expansion and diversification of the agricultural sector and a moderate trade liberalisation alongside the budgeting of imports. Cocoa prices improved on the world market after 1966 and mainly for this reason the measures of the NLC were moderately successful; the balance of trade deficits, for example, narrowed from year to year. In 1969 the Busia civilian government was voted into office and soon embarked on a massive import liberalisation. The government also continued with the agricultural policy of the regime it replaced. With high cocoa prices prevailing on the world market all went well with the Busia government massive liberalisation measure, but throughout 1971 cocoa plunged steadily and the balance of trade deficits widened. The Government was forced to devalue again by nearly 40 per cent in December and brought about economic hardship and another coup. The new military government the National Liberation Council immediately imposed trade controls, partially revalued the currency but continued with the agriculture policy of its predecessors by adopting an "Operation Feed Yourself" slogan. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.)
1981-01-01T00:00:00ZPrah, David WolseleyBy 1951 Ghana had developed into a primary produce exporter of some significance; its per capita income was one of the highest in tropical Africa. At the beginning of that year a ten-year development plan was implemented and shortly afterwards the country, incidentally, was granted internal self-government, an event which brought a nationalist party, the Convention Peoples Party (CPP), into office. Ghana's prosperity through the export trade has depended largely on cocoa, which at the beginning of the 1950s constituted more than 50 per cent of the value of the country's total exports. Because the crop had been noted for its high price instability, there was much talk in the country about the need to diversify agricultural output and the agricultural produce entering the export trade. Under the nationalist government the amount actually spent on the industrialisation programme represented an increasing percentage in the series of development plans which were implemented as from 1951: 3.5 per cent under the 1951 Plan; 8.1 per cent under the 1957-59 consolidated Plan and 15.3 per cent under the 2nd Development plan which began in 1959. On the other hand the amount spent on agriculture under each of the plans was about 5 per cent of the total expenditure. More importantly, with respect to agriculture the amount spent was a decreasing proportion of the planned estimates. Under the plans the Government failed either to expand or diversify the agricultural sector and as a result export earnings became stagnant after the mid-50's. In addition the agricultural sector failed to produce more food for the increasing population in the non-agricultural sectors and adequate raw materials for the nascent industrial sector. By the beginning of the 60's the high rate of industrialisation and the stagnant export earnings had resulted in the near depletion of the country's foreign exchange reserves which were accumulated mostly during and immediately after the second world war: Not desiring to reduce the tempo of industrialisation, the CPP Government imposed a series of controls in order to curb private consumption. At the same time the Government entered into wide range of supplier credit agreements mostly for industrial projects. The supplier financed manufacturing projects depends heavily on imported in-puts and were almost all "turn-key" projects. In the face of import controls most of them under-utilised their capacity and became high cost by world market prices. By 1966 Ghana's industrialisation programme had got the country into large foreign debt and in view of its stagnant agricultural sector there was increasing dependence on imported food. The price of cocoa fell steadily on the world market contrary to the expectation of the Government and the balance of payments worsened. The CPP government was overthrown in early 1966 and the new government that came into office, the National Liberation Council adopted different measures to rehabilitate the economy, especially by cancelling prestigious projects and reducing the central governments expenditure so as to bring it in line with its revenue. The other measures adopted included the devaluation of the national currency by 30 per cent in 1967, the adoption of a two-year development plan which included expansion and diversification of the agricultural sector and a moderate trade liberalisation alongside the budgeting of imports. Cocoa prices improved on the world market after 1966 and mainly for this reason the measures of the NLC were moderately successful; the balance of trade deficits, for example, narrowed from year to year. In 1969 the Busia civilian government was voted into office and soon embarked on a massive import liberalisation. The government also continued with the agricultural policy of the regime it replaced. With high cocoa prices prevailing on the world market all went well with the Busia government massive liberalisation measure, but throughout 1971 cocoa plunged steadily and the balance of trade deficits widened. The Government was forced to devalue again by nearly 40 per cent in December and brought about economic hardship and another coup. The new military government the National Liberation Council immediately imposed trade controls, partially revalued the currency but continued with the agriculture policy of its predecessors by adopting an "Operation Feed Yourself" slogan. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.)Economic integration in West AfricaEzenwinyinya, Michael Ukahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152802019-03-29T15:53:23Z1976-01-01T00:00:00ZThis study offers some empirical insight into the problems and possibilities of economic integration in West Africa with particular reference to Ghana and the Entente Council States (i.e. Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Niger, Dahomey and Togo). Recent developments in integration analysis have shown that the traditional theory of integration is largely inapplicable to the economies of LDCs. Economic integration in the case of LDCs should be treated as a strategy of economic development rather than a mere tariff issue. As a background to the study, the historical evolution of the current problems of intra-regional trade and development is discussed with special attention to the economic structures and geo-political configuration of divisions and fragmentations inherited from the colonial past. These have affected recent integration schemes in the region whose performances are appraised and their failures highlighted. Notwithstanding the structural problems of the economies of the area, the study sees a possibility of economic integration. It selects and applies a revised version of the Andics-Dosser model in evaluating the impact effects (gains) of market integration based on selected, existing regional industries (i.e. cement, chemical fertiliser, footwear and petroleum products) in central-west Africa, comprising Ghana and the Entente states. These are industries in which the economies of scale exist, which would justify an arrangement for gradual trade liberalization in the products of such industries within a regional context. Based on the aforementioned products the welfare benefits derivable from market integration in terms of four chosen variables, (domestic value added, national income, foreign exchange and capital cost) are quantified. The estimates, which utilise 1969 data, indicate that integration-induced improvement in the region's growth rate of GNP will be of the order of 0.796 in 1975, increasing to by 1980. Integration by itself does not ensure an automatic equitable distribution of the benefits it generates. The text discusses the possible polarization effects of integration as well as the revenue-loss aspects of tariff disarmament and goes on to make policy suggestions as to how these problems might be solved. The inherent political instability in the region is underlined as a major obstacle to integration but the limited scheme which the. study proposes, since it will entail a minimal loss of political sovereignty from the standpoint of prospective member states, is seen as likely to work if given the chance and policy guideposts are offered to this end.
1976-01-01T00:00:00ZEzenwinyinya, Michael UkaThis study offers some empirical insight into the problems and possibilities of economic integration in West Africa with particular reference to Ghana and the Entente Council States (i.e. Ivory Coast, Upper Volta, Niger, Dahomey and Togo). Recent developments in integration analysis have shown that the traditional theory of integration is largely inapplicable to the economies of LDCs. Economic integration in the case of LDCs should be treated as a strategy of economic development rather than a mere tariff issue. As a background to the study, the historical evolution of the current problems of intra-regional trade and development is discussed with special attention to the economic structures and geo-political configuration of divisions and fragmentations inherited from the colonial past. These have affected recent integration schemes in the region whose performances are appraised and their failures highlighted. Notwithstanding the structural problems of the economies of the area, the study sees a possibility of economic integration. It selects and applies a revised version of the Andics-Dosser model in evaluating the impact effects (gains) of market integration based on selected, existing regional industries (i.e. cement, chemical fertiliser, footwear and petroleum products) in central-west Africa, comprising Ghana and the Entente states. These are industries in which the economies of scale exist, which would justify an arrangement for gradual trade liberalization in the products of such industries within a regional context. Based on the aforementioned products the welfare benefits derivable from market integration in terms of four chosen variables, (domestic value added, national income, foreign exchange and capital cost) are quantified. The estimates, which utilise 1969 data, indicate that integration-induced improvement in the region's growth rate of GNP will be of the order of 0.796 in 1975, increasing to by 1980. Integration by itself does not ensure an automatic equitable distribution of the benefits it generates. The text discusses the possible polarization effects of integration as well as the revenue-loss aspects of tariff disarmament and goes on to make policy suggestions as to how these problems might be solved. The inherent political instability in the region is underlined as a major obstacle to integration but the limited scheme which the. study proposes, since it will entail a minimal loss of political sovereignty from the standpoint of prospective member states, is seen as likely to work if given the chance and policy guideposts are offered to this end.The economic development of Jordan, 1948-1966Mango, Ahmad Abrahimhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152682019-03-29T15:53:30Z1969-01-01T00:00:00Z1969-01-01T00:00:00ZMango, Ahmad AbrahimCompromising a capitalist enclave: China's utilisation of the Hong Kong economyBeattie, Sarah E. M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/152532019-03-29T15:53:31Z1999-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis investigates China's use of the Hong Kong economy taking as its framework China's reliance on Hong Kong to act as its international financial centre. China has consistently addressed Hong Kong from the standpoint of Hong Kong's utility to the Chinese economy, from the initiation of China's economic reforms through the negotiations for Hong Kong's sovereignty as well as in the current post-1997 regime as Hong Kong operates under China's auspices. Hong Kong is a vital component of China's own economy because the enclave manages a majority of its trade and investment flows. Hong Kong is able to serve the Mainland precisely because of its international standing as a free-market, capitalist enclave. However, while China will want to keep the territory in its current incarnation (and this intent is signified by the promises of the Basic Law), it is China's involvement in the territory which poses the greatest threat to Hong Kong's status quo. Particularly, Chinese government-owned companies in Hong Kong have characteristics which set them apart from any other type of foreign businesses in the territory. These business interests provide an alternative avenue of power in the territory for the Chinese government, a representation which is susceptible to abuse because of the access it provides to Chinese decision-makers and the Mainland economy. The tension created by the dichotomy between the socialist and capitalist economic systems is vulnerable to exploitation, which could ultimately compromise Hong Kong's economic integrity. The crux of the problem for Hong Kong lies in forging a relationship with its new ruling power which will maintain the territory's independent identity and autonomy, which are crucial to maintaining investor confidence in Hong Kong. Through an analysis of Chinese investment, Hong Kong is shown to be an economy which is increasingly internalised by the mainland.
1999-01-01T00:00:00ZBeattie, Sarah E. M.This thesis investigates China's use of the Hong Kong economy taking as its framework China's reliance on Hong Kong to act as its international financial centre. China has consistently addressed Hong Kong from the standpoint of Hong Kong's utility to the Chinese economy, from the initiation of China's economic reforms through the negotiations for Hong Kong's sovereignty as well as in the current post-1997 regime as Hong Kong operates under China's auspices. Hong Kong is a vital component of China's own economy because the enclave manages a majority of its trade and investment flows. Hong Kong is able to serve the Mainland precisely because of its international standing as a free-market, capitalist enclave. However, while China will want to keep the territory in its current incarnation (and this intent is signified by the promises of the Basic Law), it is China's involvement in the territory which poses the greatest threat to Hong Kong's status quo. Particularly, Chinese government-owned companies in Hong Kong have characteristics which set them apart from any other type of foreign businesses in the territory. These business interests provide an alternative avenue of power in the territory for the Chinese government, a representation which is susceptible to abuse because of the access it provides to Chinese decision-makers and the Mainland economy. The tension created by the dichotomy between the socialist and capitalist economic systems is vulnerable to exploitation, which could ultimately compromise Hong Kong's economic integrity. The crux of the problem for Hong Kong lies in forging a relationship with its new ruling power which will maintain the territory's independent identity and autonomy, which are crucial to maintaining investor confidence in Hong Kong. Through an analysis of Chinese investment, Hong Kong is shown to be an economy which is increasingly internalised by the mainland.The Scottish economy and the post-war British governments, 1945-1951Miller, Cecelia Gayhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152512019-03-29T15:49:49Z1982-01-01T00:00:00ZThe Scottish economy following the Second World War was faced with a multiplicity of problems : shortages of housing, skilled labour and raw materials, a declining share of the world market in their heavy industries and a higher unemployment level than Great Britain as a whole. The 1945-1951 years were a time of transition, not only from war to peace-time but also an adjustment to the continuation of war-time controls into peace-time. The 1945 Government retained a much greater amount of centralised power than had been the case following the First World War in 1918. The new Labour Government elected in July of 1945 had pledged itself to various sweeping social and economic reforms, such as nationalisation of many 'basic' industries. Attlee's Government was elected in 1945 on the crest of enthusiasm, a widespread feeling among Labour voters that a new age of Government responsibility was about to dawn. The Beveridge Report with its promise of 'freedom from want' and the Keynesian goals of 'full employment' and comprehensive social security were to be carried out largely with the aid of fiscal and monetary policy. The Scottish economy was mainly concentrated on very heavy industry - the so-called declining industries of coal, iron and steel and shipbuilding, with some very light industry such as textiles, especially jute. Through Regional Planning an attempt was made to bring new and light industry into Scotland, This was to be done by various means such as New Towns, Overspill, Development Areas, Industrial Estates, and Industrial Development Certificates. This thesis will thus attempt to analyse the 1945-1951 Scottish economy with special attention to employment, housing and industry. The relevant post-war Government economic policies will then be examined in this context.
1982-01-01T00:00:00ZMiller, Cecelia GayThe Scottish economy following the Second World War was faced with a multiplicity of problems : shortages of housing, skilled labour and raw materials, a declining share of the world market in their heavy industries and a higher unemployment level than Great Britain as a whole. The 1945-1951 years were a time of transition, not only from war to peace-time but also an adjustment to the continuation of war-time controls into peace-time. The 1945 Government retained a much greater amount of centralised power than had been the case following the First World War in 1918. The new Labour Government elected in July of 1945 had pledged itself to various sweeping social and economic reforms, such as nationalisation of many 'basic' industries. Attlee's Government was elected in 1945 on the crest of enthusiasm, a widespread feeling among Labour voters that a new age of Government responsibility was about to dawn. The Beveridge Report with its promise of 'freedom from want' and the Keynesian goals of 'full employment' and comprehensive social security were to be carried out largely with the aid of fiscal and monetary policy. The Scottish economy was mainly concentrated on very heavy industry - the so-called declining industries of coal, iron and steel and shipbuilding, with some very light industry such as textiles, especially jute. Through Regional Planning an attempt was made to bring new and light industry into Scotland, This was to be done by various means such as New Towns, Overspill, Development Areas, Industrial Estates, and Industrial Development Certificates. This thesis will thus attempt to analyse the 1945-1951 Scottish economy with special attention to employment, housing and industry. The relevant post-war Government economic policies will then be examined in this context.The value of outdoor recreation with special application to Loch LevenSloan, John Davidhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152482019-03-29T15:53:16Z1980-01-01T00:00:00ZLoch Leven an angling resource in the Fife Region of Scotland approximately twenty-eight miles north of Edinburgh. For many years, it provided anglers with outstanding challenge and pleasure. However, many anglers are now becoming disheartened by the fact that the quality of angling at Loch Leven has deteriorated substantially over the past ten to fifteen years. Some vow that they will not return unless something is done to improve the resource. The following is a cost-benefit study. The costs to be measured are those which must be incurred in order to improve the quality of angling at Loch Leven. These include the cost of reducing the pike population in the loch and the costs involved in the construction and maintenance of a fish hatchery so that Loch Leven may be artificially stocked with its unique trout. The benefits accrued, not only to anglers but to the community of Kinross, will be calculated using various techniques, some of which may be considered inadequate or illogical. The most promising technique for imputing a monetary value to primary or user benefits was developed by Marion Clawson. The major portion of the discussion of primary benefits is devoted to his model. In order to apply the Clawson technique to Loch Leven, a survey of anglers was undertaken and the details of this survey are presented. The responses of the 114 anglers who returned the questionnaire form the basis for the primary benefit calculations. Secondary benefits, or the benefits accrued to the surrounding community of Kinross, are measured using an income multiplier model developed by the Tourism and Recreation Research Unit of the University of Edinburgh. Again the angler surveys form the basis for these calculations. The Present Value of costs and benefits is calculated and a benefit-cost ratio presented. Because this ratio exceeds unity, it is recommended that measures be undertaken to improve the quality of angling at Loch Leven so that one of Scotland's most famous recreation resources may once again be the envy of the world's angling community.
1980-01-01T00:00:00ZSloan, John DavidLoch Leven an angling resource in the Fife Region of Scotland approximately twenty-eight miles north of Edinburgh. For many years, it provided anglers with outstanding challenge and pleasure. However, many anglers are now becoming disheartened by the fact that the quality of angling at Loch Leven has deteriorated substantially over the past ten to fifteen years. Some vow that they will not return unless something is done to improve the resource. The following is a cost-benefit study. The costs to be measured are those which must be incurred in order to improve the quality of angling at Loch Leven. These include the cost of reducing the pike population in the loch and the costs involved in the construction and maintenance of a fish hatchery so that Loch Leven may be artificially stocked with its unique trout. The benefits accrued, not only to anglers but to the community of Kinross, will be calculated using various techniques, some of which may be considered inadequate or illogical. The most promising technique for imputing a monetary value to primary or user benefits was developed by Marion Clawson. The major portion of the discussion of primary benefits is devoted to his model. In order to apply the Clawson technique to Loch Leven, a survey of anglers was undertaken and the details of this survey are presented. The responses of the 114 anglers who returned the questionnaire form the basis for the primary benefit calculations. Secondary benefits, or the benefits accrued to the surrounding community of Kinross, are measured using an income multiplier model developed by the Tourism and Recreation Research Unit of the University of Edinburgh. Again the angler surveys form the basis for these calculations. The Present Value of costs and benefits is calculated and a benefit-cost ratio presented. Because this ratio exceeds unity, it is recommended that measures be undertaken to improve the quality of angling at Loch Leven so that one of Scotland's most famous recreation resources may once again be the envy of the world's angling community.A social and economic study of the Cinque Ports region, 1450-1600Brindle, Graham Davidhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152452019-03-29T15:53:36Z1979-01-01T00:00:00ZThe Cinque Ports are the only example of a fully-developed confederate structure in English history. As a result, historians have tended to consider the fortunes of the region as a whole and have stressed the factors which unified the member ports. This approach has, however, tended to ignore the individuality of each of the members. This study attempts to redress the balance by considering the impact of the confederate bond upon the individual members and, by so doing, to demonstrate that the concept of confederation was extremely limited and applied only in certain narrow and carefully-defined areas. This study, therefore, examines several aspects of life within the confederation, it traces the origins and development of the ports and attempts to explain why the confederation was declining in importance by the fifteenth century. It then considers the economy of the region and investigates the evidence for overall economic decline during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. The central theme of this study is, however, an examination of the internal government of the member ports and the extent to which the development of institutions within each town was influenced by membership of the confederation. The governmental structure of each head port is investigated and particular attention is paid to modifications which were introduced and the circumstances which caused these changes, a similar examination is then made of the pattern of government within the corporate and non-corporate limbs and the structure of the governing class throughout the confederation is also discussed. This study then turns to an examination of the links between the members of the confederation. It considers the financial relations between head port and limb and examines the significance of disputes between the two parties. The central institutions of the confederation - the office of warden and the Brodhull - are then examined and particular emphasis is laid upon the nature and extent of their' powers over the members of the confederation. In considering each of these themes, this study intends to show that the internal affairs of each of the members were little affected by membership of the Cinque Ports confederation and seeks to demonstrate the extremely limited nature of the confederate bond.
1979-01-01T00:00:00ZBrindle, Graham DavidThe Cinque Ports are the only example of a fully-developed confederate structure in English history. As a result, historians have tended to consider the fortunes of the region as a whole and have stressed the factors which unified the member ports. This approach has, however, tended to ignore the individuality of each of the members. This study attempts to redress the balance by considering the impact of the confederate bond upon the individual members and, by so doing, to demonstrate that the concept of confederation was extremely limited and applied only in certain narrow and carefully-defined areas. This study, therefore, examines several aspects of life within the confederation, it traces the origins and development of the ports and attempts to explain why the confederation was declining in importance by the fifteenth century. It then considers the economy of the region and investigates the evidence for overall economic decline during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. The central theme of this study is, however, an examination of the internal government of the member ports and the extent to which the development of institutions within each town was influenced by membership of the confederation. The governmental structure of each head port is investigated and particular attention is paid to modifications which were introduced and the circumstances which caused these changes, a similar examination is then made of the pattern of government within the corporate and non-corporate limbs and the structure of the governing class throughout the confederation is also discussed. This study then turns to an examination of the links between the members of the confederation. It considers the financial relations between head port and limb and examines the significance of disputes between the two parties. The central institutions of the confederation - the office of warden and the Brodhull - are then examined and particular emphasis is laid upon the nature and extent of their' powers over the members of the confederation. In considering each of these themes, this study intends to show that the internal affairs of each of the members were little affected by membership of the Cinque Ports confederation and seeks to demonstrate the extremely limited nature of the confederate bond.A Community perspective on the interaction of EC external relations and European political cooperation in the pre-Maastricht Community: case studies of actor behaviour manifested through economic sanctions and trade used as political instrumentsSpieker, Kathleen M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/152412019-03-29T15:50:06Z1995-01-01T00:00:00ZThe interaction of Community and European Political Cooperation (EPC) affairs is a subject which has been neglected in the research on European integration. While legal scholars have partially taken up the complex task of treaty exegesis, there has been a dearth of research from the political perspective. This thesis fills a major gap in the discussion of EPC from theoretical, analytical and empirical aspects. Thus, it explores from a Community perspective not only the normative question of whether the European Community (EC) requires or even desires an institutionalised, external political voice to fulfil its role as an international trade alliance; but also, and more important, it examines the political linkages implicit in and inseparable from economic decisions and actions. In this context the thesis examines, through a series of case studies, the issues and tensions that have come about and still exist in the European Community in the interplay between forces of integration, external relations, and EPC: the aspiration for political integration on one hand, and the desire by the member states of the Community to retain independence on the other. The resulting tension from these forces is best reflected in the relationship between EC external economic relations, and European Political Cooperation, manifested in the quest for actorness by the Community.
1995-01-01T00:00:00ZSpieker, Kathleen M.The interaction of Community and European Political Cooperation (EPC) affairs is a subject which has been neglected in the research on European integration. While legal scholars have partially taken up the complex task of treaty exegesis, there has been a dearth of research from the political perspective. This thesis fills a major gap in the discussion of EPC from theoretical, analytical and empirical aspects. Thus, it explores from a Community perspective not only the normative question of whether the European Community (EC) requires or even desires an institutionalised, external political voice to fulfil its role as an international trade alliance; but also, and more important, it examines the political linkages implicit in and inseparable from economic decisions and actions. In this context the thesis examines, through a series of case studies, the issues and tensions that have come about and still exist in the European Community in the interplay between forces of integration, external relations, and EPC: the aspiration for political integration on one hand, and the desire by the member states of the Community to retain independence on the other. The resulting tension from these forces is best reflected in the relationship between EC external economic relations, and European Political Cooperation, manifested in the quest for actorness by the Community.An analysis of selected aspects of demographic change in the border counties of Scotland, 1755-1961Soulsby, Eve M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/152402019-07-15T09:44:30Z1971-01-01T00:00:00Z1971-01-01T00:00:00ZSoulsby, Eve M.Congestion and depopulation: a study in rural contrasts between West Lewis and West SutherlandHobson, Peggie Murielhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152382019-03-29T15:50:08Z1952-01-01T00:00:00Z1952-01-01T00:00:00ZHobson, Peggie MurielThe appraisal of the impact of alternative trade policies on the Kenyan economy from a general equilibrium modelVerlinden, Joosthttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152342019-03-29T15:49:54Z1986-01-01T00:00:00ZThe aim of the dissertation is giving an empirical appraisal of trade policy changes in a developing country, using a general equilibrium model. In a first half, an overview is given of the evolution in the theory of incorporating trade policy in planning models starting from simple calculations of effective rates of protection. It is shown that the general equilibrium price endogenous models form a natural outcome of the evolution of the theory. This part forms the theoretical background of the model developed in the next part. The second half develops and applies a general equilibrium simulation model for the economy of Kenya. In explaining the model an attempt has been made to keep the transparence of the Kenya model as high as possible. The main characteristics of the model are its general equilibrium nature and its high level of disaggregation in the production sector. In the final chapter some simulations with trade policy are carried out with the stress on the different reactions over an eight year time period of import-substituting and export-promoting policies. The main finding is that the quantitative results confirm the trade theory as developed by the classical trade theorists but the dynamic effects are relatively slow and low. The dissertation ends with appendices on the complete model in equation form, the main results of the regressions and some considerations about the statistical data set.
1986-01-01T00:00:00ZVerlinden, JoostThe aim of the dissertation is giving an empirical appraisal of trade policy changes in a developing country, using a general equilibrium model. In a first half, an overview is given of the evolution in the theory of incorporating trade policy in planning models starting from simple calculations of effective rates of protection. It is shown that the general equilibrium price endogenous models form a natural outcome of the evolution of the theory. This part forms the theoretical background of the model developed in the next part. The second half develops and applies a general equilibrium simulation model for the economy of Kenya. In explaining the model an attempt has been made to keep the transparence of the Kenya model as high as possible. The main characteristics of the model are its general equilibrium nature and its high level of disaggregation in the production sector. In the final chapter some simulations with trade policy are carried out with the stress on the different reactions over an eight year time period of import-substituting and export-promoting policies. The main finding is that the quantitative results confirm the trade theory as developed by the classical trade theorists but the dynamic effects are relatively slow and low. The dissertation ends with appendices on the complete model in equation form, the main results of the regressions and some considerations about the statistical data set.Jevons, Debreu and the foundations of mathematical economics: an historical and semiotic analysisCheix, Mathildehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/152312019-03-29T15:49:53Z1997-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis analyses whether the criticism that 20th c economic theory is too abstract, and lacking in economic meaning as a consequence of being mathematical, is justified, from a methodological perspective that is epistemological in character (cf ch2 and Cheix, 1996). Using, firstly the 'external' historical approach, that compares. Economics to the sciences (especially Mathematics chs 5, 6, 7, 8); and, secondly, the semiotic approach, that enquires into the contribution of notation to meaning, the thesis examines the historical and cognitive raison d'etre of mathematics in Economics. The thesis identifies (chs l, 2) 20th c mathematical-economics with model building and neoclassical theory. The main lines of argument are developed with reference to Jevons' Theory of Political Economy and Debreu's Theory of Value. This limitation is practical but not unnecessarily restrictive as the authors are major neo-classical writers, and mathematical economics has developed along the lines they envisaged. Further, neo-classical ideas have established themselves as paradigms of 20th c Economics, and have influenced theories in the social sciences and their mathematization. It is shown that Jevons (ch5) used the symbolism, and in particular, the linearity property of differentials to unify economic theory and the sciences on the pattern of Physics. For him however, the mathematization of economics involved also empirical and experimental inquiries using statistics. For the case of Debreu (ch6) it is shown how he used set-theoretic formalism and fixed point theorems to provide equilibrium theory with logico-mathematical content. This content is viewed as an axiomatic and deductive structure implying equilibrium. The definitions of mathematical economic models discussed in Part 3 show that economics was mathematized through influences not only from Physics, but also from Logic, and, more widely from the 20th c (socio-cultural) trend of model building in science. It is argued that this latter trend is not exclusively, or even necessarily, rooted in neo-classical economics. The semiotic analysis of chs 5 and 6 reveals how notations connect different interpretative levels ('isotopies') of mathematical theories, and how inconsistences may arise between these levels. The general conclusion of the thesis given certain methodological provisos, is that mathematization, in itself, is not a cause of, or explanation for, the emptiness of economic theories.
1997-01-01T00:00:00ZCheix, MathildeThis thesis analyses whether the criticism that 20th c economic theory is too abstract, and lacking in economic meaning as a consequence of being mathematical, is justified, from a methodological perspective that is epistemological in character (cf ch2 and Cheix, 1996). Using, firstly the 'external' historical approach, that compares. Economics to the sciences (especially Mathematics chs 5, 6, 7, 8); and, secondly, the semiotic approach, that enquires into the contribution of notation to meaning, the thesis examines the historical and cognitive raison d'etre of mathematics in Economics. The thesis identifies (chs l, 2) 20th c mathematical-economics with model building and neoclassical theory. The main lines of argument are developed with reference to Jevons' Theory of Political Economy and Debreu's Theory of Value. This limitation is practical but not unnecessarily restrictive as the authors are major neo-classical writers, and mathematical economics has developed along the lines they envisaged. Further, neo-classical ideas have established themselves as paradigms of 20th c Economics, and have influenced theories in the social sciences and their mathematization. It is shown that Jevons (ch5) used the symbolism, and in particular, the linearity property of differentials to unify economic theory and the sciences on the pattern of Physics. For him however, the mathematization of economics involved also empirical and experimental inquiries using statistics. For the case of Debreu (ch6) it is shown how he used set-theoretic formalism and fixed point theorems to provide equilibrium theory with logico-mathematical content. This content is viewed as an axiomatic and deductive structure implying equilibrium. The definitions of mathematical economic models discussed in Part 3 show that economics was mathematized through influences not only from Physics, but also from Logic, and, more widely from the 20th c (socio-cultural) trend of model building in science. It is argued that this latter trend is not exclusively, or even necessarily, rooted in neo-classical economics. The semiotic analysis of chs 5 and 6 reveals how notations connect different interpretative levels ('isotopies') of mathematical theories, and how inconsistences may arise between these levels. The general conclusion of the thesis given certain methodological provisos, is that mathematization, in itself, is not a cause of, or explanation for, the emptiness of economic theories.Constrained discretion : monetary policy frameworks, central bank independence and inflation in Central Europe, 1993-2001Beblavý, Miroslavhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/141942019-03-29T15:53:29Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZThe thesis has two overarching objectives. One is to understand monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia during 1990s and early 2000s; the other to use these findings to shed light on monetary policy in less developed, but highly open and financially integrated market economies. In order to achieve its aims, it analyses specific factors with significant influence on the conduct or outcomes of monetary policy in these countries; it analyses the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central Europe, based on a technique called vector autoregression; and examines use of principal types of constraints on policy discretion, such as central bank independence, exchange rate commitments and domestic targets for monetary policy, in countries of the sample. The thesis finds that strong internal and external pressures, together with frequent bouts of fiscal irresponsibility and sizeable additive and parametric uncertainty regarding the working of the economy, led, in all four countries, to pronounced macroeconomic vulnerability and a need for periodic adjustment to dangerous fiscal and external imbalances. Reaction of policy-makers in countries of the sample to this environment can be characterized as discretion constrained by a strong nominal anchor and real exchange rate considerations. Experience of Central European countries shows that various elements of a commitment by monetary authorities are not duplicatory or contradictory, but interdependent in contributing to the goal of constraining discretion. During the period studied, the two key overall developments in policy were the gradual shift of emphasis from exchange rate targets to domestic targets and (within domestic targets) a shift from monetary targets to inflation targets. This approach has been largely successful.
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZBeblavý, MiroslavThe thesis has two overarching objectives. One is to understand monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia during 1990s and early 2000s; the other to use these findings to shed light on monetary policy in less developed, but highly open and financially integrated market economies. In order to achieve its aims, it analyses specific factors with significant influence on the conduct or outcomes of monetary policy in these countries; it analyses the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central Europe, based on a technique called vector autoregression; and examines use of principal types of constraints on policy discretion, such as central bank independence, exchange rate commitments and domestic targets for monetary policy, in countries of the sample. The thesis finds that strong internal and external pressures, together with frequent bouts of fiscal irresponsibility and sizeable additive and parametric uncertainty regarding the working of the economy, led, in all four countries, to pronounced macroeconomic vulnerability and a need for periodic adjustment to dangerous fiscal and external imbalances. Reaction of policy-makers in countries of the sample to this environment can be characterized as discretion constrained by a strong nominal anchor and real exchange rate considerations. Experience of Central European countries shows that various elements of a commitment by monetary authorities are not duplicatory or contradictory, but interdependent in contributing to the goal of constraining discretion. During the period studied, the two key overall developments in policy were the gradual shift of emphasis from exchange rate targets to domestic targets and (within domestic targets) a shift from monetary targets to inflation targets. This approach has been largely successful.The transferability and the applicability of marketing know-how to developing countries : an empirical study in the Saudi manufacturing sectorAl-Mulhem, Saleh A.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/141192019-03-29T15:49:55Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZFor two decades, although there has been agreement among marketing researchers that marketing has an important role to play in the development process in any country, there has been an ongoing debate about the question of the transferability of modern marketing knowledge from developed countries to developing countries come under this category social-cultural setting. Moreover, the situation of marketing in some developing countries is not clear, and Gulf Corporation Council Countries are concluded. The researcher has attempted to establish a link between these two issues and fill this gap by undertaking this study. Therefore, this research attempts to extend the application of marketing know-how (concepts and activities) in companies in the Saudi manufacturing sector. Overall, the results of this research indicate that the majority of manufacturing companies in the Saudi manufacturing sector apply marketing activities on a regular basis and that marketing managers perceive the usefulness of marketing in their companies. The analysis showed that a number of marketing manager's characteristics have a relationship between them and the application of marketing activities. Higher qualifications, a specialization in business administration, experience in marketing and participation in marketing training programmes impact positively on the application of modern marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. However, marketing managers' age, nationality, country of higher education, duration in current company, or membership in any professional marketing associations do not impact on the application of marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. Data analysis also showed that the majority of a company's characteristics impact on the application of marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sectors. Included in this are the legal form of companies, the size of company, the level of a company's competition, and the availability of a marketing department in any company. However, type of manufacturing company, type of product, and number of product do not have any impact on applying marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. This study linked the success of manufacturing companies by sales, profits and market share and the application of marketing know-how, and concluded that when marketing activities are applied in the Saudi manufacturing sector, company sales, profits and market share increase and make a company more successful. Nevertheless, the study concluded that the majority of Saudi environmental factors are not obstacles to the application of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. The stagnancy of governmental measures on commercial activities, lack of formal marketing education, lack of professional marketing personnel, and shortage of marketing information, were the only variables which were obstacles to the employment of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. On the other hand, there are ten variables which are not obstacles to the employment of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. These are; economic stability, prevalent religious values, competition in the market, focusing on production tasks rather than marketing tasks, and lack of advanced technology in the company. Finally, implications and recommendations for further research are presented in the last chapter of this study.
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZAl-Mulhem, Saleh A.For two decades, although there has been agreement among marketing researchers that marketing has an important role to play in the development process in any country, there has been an ongoing debate about the question of the transferability of modern marketing knowledge from developed countries to developing countries come under this category social-cultural setting. Moreover, the situation of marketing in some developing countries is not clear, and Gulf Corporation Council Countries are concluded. The researcher has attempted to establish a link between these two issues and fill this gap by undertaking this study. Therefore, this research attempts to extend the application of marketing know-how (concepts and activities) in companies in the Saudi manufacturing sector. Overall, the results of this research indicate that the majority of manufacturing companies in the Saudi manufacturing sector apply marketing activities on a regular basis and that marketing managers perceive the usefulness of marketing in their companies. The analysis showed that a number of marketing manager's characteristics have a relationship between them and the application of marketing activities. Higher qualifications, a specialization in business administration, experience in marketing and participation in marketing training programmes impact positively on the application of modern marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. However, marketing managers' age, nationality, country of higher education, duration in current company, or membership in any professional marketing associations do not impact on the application of marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. Data analysis also showed that the majority of a company's characteristics impact on the application of marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sectors. Included in this are the legal form of companies, the size of company, the level of a company's competition, and the availability of a marketing department in any company. However, type of manufacturing company, type of product, and number of product do not have any impact on applying marketing activities in the Saudi manufacturing sector. This study linked the success of manufacturing companies by sales, profits and market share and the application of marketing know-how, and concluded that when marketing activities are applied in the Saudi manufacturing sector, company sales, profits and market share increase and make a company more successful. Nevertheless, the study concluded that the majority of Saudi environmental factors are not obstacles to the application of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. The stagnancy of governmental measures on commercial activities, lack of formal marketing education, lack of professional marketing personnel, and shortage of marketing information, were the only variables which were obstacles to the employment of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. On the other hand, there are ten variables which are not obstacles to the employment of marketing know-how in Saudi manufacturing companies. These are; economic stability, prevalent religious values, competition in the market, focusing on production tasks rather than marketing tasks, and lack of advanced technology in the company. Finally, implications and recommendations for further research are presented in the last chapter of this study.Factors influencing export performance : the case of Saudi ArabiaBoodai, Bassam M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/141172019-03-29T15:49:46Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZThis research expands the current body of export performance research by examining the factors influencing export performance among private sector exporting firms in a developing country, namely Saudi Arabia. This study identifies the internal and external factors that influence firms' export performance, empirically examines those factors' influence on export performance, and derives guidelines for both managers and government policy makers concerning the best policies and strategies for improving export performance. Based on the existing literature, a theoretical model for the relationship between export performance and sixty-five independent variables was developed. Three measures of export performance were operationalised: export intensity, export sales growth, and export profitability. The independent variables included both internal and external variables. Internal variables were grouped under firms' differential advantages, export marketing strategy, and management quality. External variables were grouped under local market environment, national environment, and foreign market environment. The analysis and hypothesis testing were carried out for each measure separately. The hypotheses were tested using data collected by means of mail questionnaire from 154 exporting manufacturing firms in Saudi Arabia. Additional data were collected through six in-depth interviews. The results of the analysis revealed the importance of many internal and external factors in influencing firms' export performance. These results differed across different export performance measures. For example export intensity was explained significantly by export marketing strategy, export sales growth was a function of management quality, and export profitability was explained mainly by firms' differential advantages. Moreover, external variables were found to explain export performance. Export intensity was associated positively with exporting to Asia and export profitability was positively associated with exporting to Arab countries.
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZBoodai, Bassam M.This research expands the current body of export performance research by examining the factors influencing export performance among private sector exporting firms in a developing country, namely Saudi Arabia. This study identifies the internal and external factors that influence firms' export performance, empirically examines those factors' influence on export performance, and derives guidelines for both managers and government policy makers concerning the best policies and strategies for improving export performance. Based on the existing literature, a theoretical model for the relationship between export performance and sixty-five independent variables was developed. Three measures of export performance were operationalised: export intensity, export sales growth, and export profitability. The independent variables included both internal and external variables. Internal variables were grouped under firms' differential advantages, export marketing strategy, and management quality. External variables were grouped under local market environment, national environment, and foreign market environment. The analysis and hypothesis testing were carried out for each measure separately. The hypotheses were tested using data collected by means of mail questionnaire from 154 exporting manufacturing firms in Saudi Arabia. Additional data were collected through six in-depth interviews. The results of the analysis revealed the importance of many internal and external factors in influencing firms' export performance. These results differed across different export performance measures. For example export intensity was explained significantly by export marketing strategy, export sales growth was a function of management quality, and export profitability was explained mainly by firms' differential advantages. Moreover, external variables were found to explain export performance. Export intensity was associated positively with exporting to Asia and export profitability was positively associated with exporting to Arab countries.Modelling commuters' mode choice in ScotlandHole, Arne Risahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/141152019-03-29T15:53:37Z2005-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis contributes to the literature on the choice of transport mode for commuting trips, with special focus on the difference between urban and rural commuting in Scotland. The thesis begins by giving an overview of discrete choice theory and some empirical models consistent with this theory, before reviewing the literature on empirical applications of mode choice models for commuting trips. In the following, multinomial, nested and mixed logit models using data from a survey of commuters in the University of St Andrews are developed. The models are used to estimate aggregate mode-choice elasticities that can assist the development of efficient car reduction policies in St Andrews and other small towns in rural areas. The direct elasticities of the car mode are found to be comparable to estimates reported in studies of urban commuting, while the demand for public transport is found to be considerably more elastic. The value of in-vehicle travel time is found to be lower than in most studies of urban commuting, reflecting that the roads in the St Andrews area are relatively uncongested. Subsequently, current car drivers' willingness to use a Park and Ride service prior to the implementation of such a service are examined. The results show that the modal shift away from parking on-site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges. Finally, the effect of the 'compact city' on modal split and congestion are examined. As well as making urban transport more sustainable as a result of an increase in the use of public transport, making cities more compact is found to contribute to lower levels of congestion in urban areas through a reduction in complex trip chains.
2005-01-01T00:00:00ZHole, Arne RisaThis thesis contributes to the literature on the choice of transport mode for commuting trips, with special focus on the difference between urban and rural commuting in Scotland. The thesis begins by giving an overview of discrete choice theory and some empirical models consistent with this theory, before reviewing the literature on empirical applications of mode choice models for commuting trips. In the following, multinomial, nested and mixed logit models using data from a survey of commuters in the University of St Andrews are developed. The models are used to estimate aggregate mode-choice elasticities that can assist the development of efficient car reduction policies in St Andrews and other small towns in rural areas. The direct elasticities of the car mode are found to be comparable to estimates reported in studies of urban commuting, while the demand for public transport is found to be considerably more elastic. The value of in-vehicle travel time is found to be lower than in most studies of urban commuting, reflecting that the roads in the St Andrews area are relatively uncongested. Subsequently, current car drivers' willingness to use a Park and Ride service prior to the implementation of such a service are examined. The results show that the modal shift away from parking on-site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges. Finally, the effect of the 'compact city' on modal split and congestion are examined. As well as making urban transport more sustainable as a result of an increase in the use of public transport, making cities more compact is found to contribute to lower levels of congestion in urban areas through a reduction in complex trip chains.Indigenous wildcatters, clandestine prospectors of the petroleum world : an exploratory study of British independent exploration and production companiesStewart, Torcail M.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/141142019-03-29T15:50:05Z2005-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis explores the organizational strengths and competitive strategies exhibited by British Independent Petroleum Exploration and Production Companies. Fieldwork methods were used to obtain new primary source data (quantitative and qualitative) on these companies. These were gathered through a series of semi-structured face-to-face interviews with fourteen Independents, representing a large component of the population and seven international drilling contractors. The research topic is developed along four principal channels of inquiry: 1) Strategic Decision-making Speed and Rapidity of Action, 2) Utilisation of Contractors 3) Negotiation 4) International Strategy. The main organizational strength is identified as the ability of the Independent to be fast in its decision-making speed. In explaining this finding, a range of structural variables are investigated, and shown to be of potential influence. Further, the in-house functional strengths possessed by Independents are examined, and differing reasons for their internalisation are delineated. Another organizational strength is shown to lie in the less formalized approach to business deals adopted by Independents. In particular, the emphasis which Independents place upon developing relationships is found to fit the 'non-ideal' operating disposition of Non-Western government bureaucracies. It is shown that, being free of the inertia which may induce formalized systems and bureaucratic controls in larger firms, the Independent cultivates more flexible systems, which foster its manoeuvrability. A potentially fruitful competitive strategy recognised for such firms is found to be their ability to seize windows of opportunity, in terms of concluding deals. Being small and of limited resources, the international strategy exhibited by several Independents is shown to be one which builds upon existing capabilities. As a consequence, countries where existing company knowledge and experience can be most readily applied, are targeted. Indeed, some Independents' capabilities appear to reside in operating in high political/corruption risk countries. In entering countries often avoided by larger competitors, Independents may reasonably be characterised as clandestine prospectors of the petroleum world.
2005-01-01T00:00:00ZStewart, Torcail M.This thesis explores the organizational strengths and competitive strategies exhibited by British Independent Petroleum Exploration and Production Companies. Fieldwork methods were used to obtain new primary source data (quantitative and qualitative) on these companies. These were gathered through a series of semi-structured face-to-face interviews with fourteen Independents, representing a large component of the population and seven international drilling contractors. The research topic is developed along four principal channels of inquiry: 1) Strategic Decision-making Speed and Rapidity of Action, 2) Utilisation of Contractors 3) Negotiation 4) International Strategy. The main organizational strength is identified as the ability of the Independent to be fast in its decision-making speed. In explaining this finding, a range of structural variables are investigated, and shown to be of potential influence. Further, the in-house functional strengths possessed by Independents are examined, and differing reasons for their internalisation are delineated. Another organizational strength is shown to lie in the less formalized approach to business deals adopted by Independents. In particular, the emphasis which Independents place upon developing relationships is found to fit the 'non-ideal' operating disposition of Non-Western government bureaucracies. It is shown that, being free of the inertia which may induce formalized systems and bureaucratic controls in larger firms, the Independent cultivates more flexible systems, which foster its manoeuvrability. A potentially fruitful competitive strategy recognised for such firms is found to be their ability to seize windows of opportunity, in terms of concluding deals. Being small and of limited resources, the international strategy exhibited by several Independents is shown to be one which builds upon existing capabilities. As a consequence, countries where existing company knowledge and experience can be most readily applied, are targeted. Indeed, some Independents' capabilities appear to reside in operating in high political/corruption risk countries. In entering countries often avoided by larger competitors, Independents may reasonably be characterised as clandestine prospectors of the petroleum world.Factors which foster the survival of long-lived small firmsPower, Bernadettehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/141132019-03-29T15:53:33Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis focuses on those factors which foster the long-run survival, or continued existence, of the small firm. Using fieldwork methods, new data were gathered in face-to-face interviews with 63 owner-managers of mature small firms in Scotland (average age of 251/2 years). An instrument incorporating novel ways of calibrating organisational change and performance was designed specifically for this study. The unique body of data enabled a number of new hypotheses to be tested in structural econometric models of small firm performance and growth. A mix of quantitative and qualitative data was also used to construct illustrative case studies of seven enterprise profiles. New measures of flexibility and firm-specific turbulence are used to explain the performance of mature small firms, and Heckman sample selection estimation is undertaken of this performance equation. Performance was measured using an index constructed fi-om Likert scales over 28 distinct attributes. It was found that firm- specific turbulence had a large negative effect on performance. Measures of flexibility (viz. agility and speed) enhanced the long run prospects of the mature small firm. Evidence of a trade-off relationship was found between measures of flexibility. Real options logic was found to be useful in interpreting the results. This evidence indicated that entrepreneurs should be alert to precipitators of organisational change, but should not act impulsively in responding to them. The tendency of the long-lived small firm to remain small is considered using structural modelling techniques. In a three-equation simultaneous model, performance, size and a third variable (viz. market extent and size of competitive strategy space) are jointly determined. An array of system estimation techniques (e.g. 2SLS, SSLS, H3SLS) was employed to estimate the behavioural models. A trade-off is found between firm size and performance, thus embedding this result in a larger structural model. It is found that small firms need to adjust downwards in size, and to cultivate a varied competitive strategy in niche or localised markets, to attain higher equilibrium values of performance and to promote longevity.
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZPower, BernadetteThis thesis focuses on those factors which foster the long-run survival, or continued existence, of the small firm. Using fieldwork methods, new data were gathered in face-to-face interviews with 63 owner-managers of mature small firms in Scotland (average age of 251/2 years). An instrument incorporating novel ways of calibrating organisational change and performance was designed specifically for this study. The unique body of data enabled a number of new hypotheses to be tested in structural econometric models of small firm performance and growth. A mix of quantitative and qualitative data was also used to construct illustrative case studies of seven enterprise profiles. New measures of flexibility and firm-specific turbulence are used to explain the performance of mature small firms, and Heckman sample selection estimation is undertaken of this performance equation. Performance was measured using an index constructed fi-om Likert scales over 28 distinct attributes. It was found that firm- specific turbulence had a large negative effect on performance. Measures of flexibility (viz. agility and speed) enhanced the long run prospects of the mature small firm. Evidence of a trade-off relationship was found between measures of flexibility. Real options logic was found to be useful in interpreting the results. This evidence indicated that entrepreneurs should be alert to precipitators of organisational change, but should not act impulsively in responding to them. The tendency of the long-lived small firm to remain small is considered using structural modelling techniques. In a three-equation simultaneous model, performance, size and a third variable (viz. market extent and size of competitive strategy space) are jointly determined. An array of system estimation techniques (e.g. 2SLS, SSLS, H3SLS) was employed to estimate the behavioural models. A trade-off is found between firm size and performance, thus embedding this result in a larger structural model. It is found that small firms need to adjust downwards in size, and to cultivate a varied competitive strategy in niche or localised markets, to attain higher equilibrium values of performance and to promote longevity.Counterfactual reasoning in strategy context : a theoretical investigation of the role of hindsight in strategic foresightMacKay, R. Bradleyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/140622019-03-29T15:53:16Z2004-01-01T00:00:00ZThe purpose of this doctoral thesis is to deepen theoretical understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The thesis argues that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on strategic learning by limiting our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become critical uncertainties in the future. They can result in misperceptions about events or processes, and as such, may impair foresight methodologies such as scenario thinking. Such foresightful thinking flaws are characterised by a combination of hindsight biases and creeping determinism, which result in searching for information that corresponds to people's views about both the past and the future, logical path-dependencies, misaligned dominant logics, routines, recipes and paradigms, and over-confidence and defensive pessimism. Drawing on received research in psychology, the role of counter-to-factual reasoning as a heuristic is discussed and analysed as a possible antidote to foresightful thinking flaws. The judicious use of such a heuristic device as counterfactual reasoning, both as a sense-making process and as an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data, the thesis concludes, is a method for investigating and discovering the past and fortifying foresightful strategic thinking.
2004-01-01T00:00:00ZMacKay, R. BradleyThe purpose of this doctoral thesis is to deepen theoretical understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The thesis argues that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on strategic learning by limiting our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become critical uncertainties in the future. They can result in misperceptions about events or processes, and as such, may impair foresight methodologies such as scenario thinking. Such foresightful thinking flaws are characterised by a combination of hindsight biases and creeping determinism, which result in searching for information that corresponds to people's views about both the past and the future, logical path-dependencies, misaligned dominant logics, routines, recipes and paradigms, and over-confidence and defensive pessimism. Drawing on received research in psychology, the role of counter-to-factual reasoning as a heuristic is discussed and analysed as a possible antidote to foresightful thinking flaws. The judicious use of such a heuristic device as counterfactual reasoning, both as a sense-making process and as an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data, the thesis concludes, is a method for investigating and discovering the past and fortifying foresightful strategic thinking.Afriat's Theorem and Samuelson's 'Eternal Darkness'Polisson, MatthewRenou, Ludovichttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/122742023-04-18T10:16:24Z2016-08-01T00:00:00ZSuppose that we have access to a finite set of expenditure data drawn from an individual consumer, i.e., how much of each good has been purchased and at what prices. Afriat (1967) was the first to establish necessary and sufficient conditions on such a data set for rationalizability by utility maximization. In this note, we provide a new and simple proof of Afriat’s Theorem, the explicit steps of which help to more deeply understand the driving force behind one of the more curious features of the result itself, namely that a concave rationalization is without loss of generality in a classical finite data setting. Our proof stresses the importance of the non-uniqueness of a utility representation along with the finiteness of the data set in ensuring the existence of a concave utility function that rationalizes the data.
2016-08-01T00:00:00ZPolisson, MatthewRenou, LudovicSuppose that we have access to a finite set of expenditure data drawn from an individual consumer, i.e., how much of each good has been purchased and at what prices. Afriat (1967) was the first to establish necessary and sufficient conditions on such a data set for rationalizability by utility maximization. In this note, we provide a new and simple proof of Afriat’s Theorem, the explicit steps of which help to more deeply understand the driving force behind one of the more curious features of the result itself, namely that a concave rationalization is without loss of generality in a classical finite data setting. Our proof stresses the importance of the non-uniqueness of a utility representation along with the finiteness of the data set in ensuring the existence of a concave utility function that rationalizes the data.Essays on issues in climate change policyDaube, Marchttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/120232020-04-21T02:00:36Z2017-06-23T00:00:00ZThis thesis addresses three themes relating to climate change. The first is which types of fossil fuel to leave in the ground when they can differ in both their extraction cost and emissions rate. The analysis shows that without resource constraints there will always be use of at least one fossil fuel in the steady-state. With exhaustion constraints, any fossil fuel that has a lower extraction cost than the marginal cost of the backstop will be extracted in finite time regardless of the emissions rate. The only environmental consideration is the timing of extraction rather than leaving fossil fuel stock in the ground forever. The second theme is how altruistic concern of individuals for the well-being of others influences the socially optimal consumption levels and optimal emissions tax in a global context. If individuals have altruistic concern but believe that their consumption is negligible, they will not change their behaviour. However, non-cooperative governments maximising domestic welfare will internalise some of the damage inflicted on other countries depending on the level of altruistic concern individuals have and the cooperative optimum also changes as altruism leads individuals to effectively experience damage in other countries as well as the direct damage to them. Still, for behaviour to change, individuals need to make their decisions in a different way. The third chapter develops a new theory of moral behaviour whereby individuals balance the cost of not acting in their own self-interest against the hypothetical moral value of adopting a Kantian form of behaviour, asking what would happen if everyone else acted in the same way as they did. If individuals behave this way, then altruism matters and it may induce individuals to cut back their consumption. But nevertheless the optimal environmental tax is exactly the same as the standard Pigovian tax.
2017-06-23T00:00:00ZDaube, MarcThis thesis addresses three themes relating to climate change. The first is which types of fossil fuel to leave in the ground when they can differ in both their extraction cost and emissions rate. The analysis shows that without resource constraints there will always be use of at least one fossil fuel in the steady-state. With exhaustion constraints, any fossil fuel that has a lower extraction cost than the marginal cost of the backstop will be extracted in finite time regardless of the emissions rate. The only environmental consideration is the timing of extraction rather than leaving fossil fuel stock in the ground forever. The second theme is how altruistic concern of individuals for the well-being of others influences the socially optimal consumption levels and optimal emissions tax in a global context. If individuals have altruistic concern but believe that their consumption is negligible, they will not change their behaviour. However, non-cooperative governments maximising domestic welfare will internalise some of the damage inflicted on other countries depending on the level of altruistic concern individuals have and the cooperative optimum also changes as altruism leads individuals to effectively experience damage in other countries as well as the direct damage to them. Still, for behaviour to change, individuals need to make their decisions in a different way. The third chapter develops a new theory of moral behaviour whereby individuals balance the cost of not acting in their own self-interest against the hypothetical moral value of adopting a Kantian form of behaviour, asking what would happen if everyone else acted in the same way as they did. If individuals behave this way, then altruism matters and it may induce individuals to cut back their consumption. But nevertheless the optimal environmental tax is exactly the same as the standard Pigovian tax.The quest for growth in developing countries : an analysis of the effects of foreign aid on economic growthKhomba, Daniel Chrishttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/110342019-03-29T15:49:47Z2017-06-23T00:00:00ZLarge quantities of foreign development assistance continue to flow to many developing countries. At the same time, most of the aid-receiving countries have stagnated and become even more aid-dependent. This grim reality provokes vigorous debate on the effectiveness of aid. Despite the voluminous research on aid effectiveness, clear evidence to support the view that development aid stimulates economic growth remains scant.
This thesis intends to extend the existing literature on foreign aid and economic growth. First we re-examine results from cross-country studies to provide new insights on the lack of robustness of results from this approach. We further explore and deepen the observation that cross-country results are fragile, particularly when the number of countries in the sample changes. Secondly, we study the impact of district-level aid disbursement on the growth of average night-time light density in Malawi. We use two plausibly exogenous determinants of within-country aid allocation to isolate the causal effects of aid. The results show a robust and quantitatively significant effect of aid flows in stimulating growth of light density. We find a hump-shaped growth response over three years. Finally, the thesis presents a theoretical model that explores how aid affects economic growth and welfare in an economy with subsistence constraints. The main results from this analysis are; (i) productive aid has higher long run growth and welfare effects than pure aid (ii) the rate of convergence depends crucially on how close the initial conditions are to the subsistence level (iii) while growth effects are maximised when all the aid is allocated to productive aid, we find that optimal welfare is reached when some proportion of aid is also allocated to pure transfers.
2017-06-23T00:00:00ZKhomba, Daniel ChrisLarge quantities of foreign development assistance continue to flow to many developing countries. At the same time, most of the aid-receiving countries have stagnated and become even more aid-dependent. This grim reality provokes vigorous debate on the effectiveness of aid. Despite the voluminous research on aid effectiveness, clear evidence to support the view that development aid stimulates economic growth remains scant.
This thesis intends to extend the existing literature on foreign aid and economic growth. First we re-examine results from cross-country studies to provide new insights on the lack of robustness of results from this approach. We further explore and deepen the observation that cross-country results are fragile, particularly when the number of countries in the sample changes. Secondly, we study the impact of district-level aid disbursement on the growth of average night-time light density in Malawi. We use two plausibly exogenous determinants of within-country aid allocation to isolate the causal effects of aid. The results show a robust and quantitatively significant effect of aid flows in stimulating growth of light density. We find a hump-shaped growth response over three years. Finally, the thesis presents a theoretical model that explores how aid affects economic growth and welfare in an economy with subsistence constraints. The main results from this analysis are; (i) productive aid has higher long run growth and welfare effects than pure aid (ii) the rate of convergence depends crucially on how close the initial conditions are to the subsistence level (iii) while growth effects are maximised when all the aid is allocated to productive aid, we find that optimal welfare is reached when some proportion of aid is also allocated to pure transfers.The whisky industry and the regional Scottish economy : an economic analysis of the impact of imminent innovations in public policyHaines, Paulhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/109842019-03-29T15:53:20Z1998-01-01T00:00:00ZThis dissertation analyses imminent innovations in public policy that will impact upon the whisky industry, and, through linkage adjustments, the regional Scottish economy. An analysis of the interconnectedness between the whisky industry and the wider Scottish economy reveals that such linkages are substantial.
A holistic conspectus of the whisky industry in the first part of the dissertation reveals that the predominant form of structural change in the past has been merger & acquisition. Such consolidation has permitted economies in marketing & distribution, but it is contended that in this arena at least there is scope for further performance improvement in the industry. Nevertheless, with taxation forming such a significant proportion of the final price of the product, realising a sustained increase in demand is deemed to be largely outwith the capability of the industry.
It is advanced, therefore, that two tax-related developments in public policy in the next few years will impact not merely upon the whisky industry, but materially upon the regional Scottish economy as well. The first of these imminent innovations examined is the
proposed abolition of the intra-EU duty free concession in 1999. Whilst it is concluded that such a move is inevitable (and economically logical), it is nonetheless determined that this will have a meaningful detrimental impact upon the whisky industry and Scottish economy.
Secondly, the current proposals of the European Commission for the harmonisation of alcohol excises across the European Union are critically appraised, and are shown to be grounded on no logical economic principles, but instead, enshrine protection for European vinicultures. The rationale for alcohol taxation is considered de novo, concluding that within the United Kingdom & across the European Union, at a minimum all alcoholic beverages should be taxed on an equal basis according to alcoholic content, at a level sufficient to cover an estimate of the negative externalities associated with alcohol consumption.
Mindful of the importance of the whisky industry to the Scottish economy, it is revealed that in times past, the public authorities have been proactive in intervening to secure the continuing prosperity of the whisky industry, and it is contended that such a stance may be required of the present government. The dissertation concludes by advocating a set of reforms to the structure of alcohol excises in the United Kingdom.
An approximate halving of the excise applied to spirits, such that all alcoholic beverages are taxed equally according to alcoholic content, would ensure that the whisky industry & government could lobby with credibility for comparable structures to be adopted overseas, particularly in any revised proposals for European excise harmonisation. In addition, it is suggested that the fillip such a reform would give to domestic sales of whisky would mitigate the negative effects upon the whisky industry & regional Scottish economy of losing the intra-EU duty free concession in 1999.
1998-01-01T00:00:00ZHaines, PaulThis dissertation analyses imminent innovations in public policy that will impact upon the whisky industry, and, through linkage adjustments, the regional Scottish economy. An analysis of the interconnectedness between the whisky industry and the wider Scottish economy reveals that such linkages are substantial.
A holistic conspectus of the whisky industry in the first part of the dissertation reveals that the predominant form of structural change in the past has been merger & acquisition. Such consolidation has permitted economies in marketing & distribution, but it is contended that in this arena at least there is scope for further performance improvement in the industry. Nevertheless, with taxation forming such a significant proportion of the final price of the product, realising a sustained increase in demand is deemed to be largely outwith the capability of the industry.
It is advanced, therefore, that two tax-related developments in public policy in the next few years will impact not merely upon the whisky industry, but materially upon the regional Scottish economy as well. The first of these imminent innovations examined is the
proposed abolition of the intra-EU duty free concession in 1999. Whilst it is concluded that such a move is inevitable (and economically logical), it is nonetheless determined that this will have a meaningful detrimental impact upon the whisky industry and Scottish economy.
Secondly, the current proposals of the European Commission for the harmonisation of alcohol excises across the European Union are critically appraised, and are shown to be grounded on no logical economic principles, but instead, enshrine protection for European vinicultures. The rationale for alcohol taxation is considered de novo, concluding that within the United Kingdom & across the European Union, at a minimum all alcoholic beverages should be taxed on an equal basis according to alcoholic content, at a level sufficient to cover an estimate of the negative externalities associated with alcohol consumption.
Mindful of the importance of the whisky industry to the Scottish economy, it is revealed that in times past, the public authorities have been proactive in intervening to secure the continuing prosperity of the whisky industry, and it is contended that such a stance may be required of the present government. The dissertation concludes by advocating a set of reforms to the structure of alcohol excises in the United Kingdom.
An approximate halving of the excise applied to spirits, such that all alcoholic beverages are taxed equally according to alcoholic content, would ensure that the whisky industry & government could lobby with credibility for comparable structures to be adopted overseas, particularly in any revised proposals for European excise harmonisation. In addition, it is suggested that the fillip such a reform would give to domestic sales of whisky would mitigate the negative effects upon the whisky industry & regional Scottish economy of losing the intra-EU duty free concession in 1999.Higher tax for top earnersFitzRoy, FelixJin, Jimhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/103612024-03-04T00:39:11Z2017-02-01T00:00:00ZThe literature can justify increasing and decreasing marginal taxes (IMT & DMT) on top income under different social objectives and income distributions. Even if DMT are optimal, they are often politically infeasible. Then a flat tax seems to be a constrained optimal solution. We show however that, if we want to maximize the utility of a poor majority any flat tax can be inferior to some IMT. We provide a sufficient condition for (two-band) IMT to dominate any flat tax and further generalize this result to allow different welfare weights, declining elasticity of labour supply and more tax bands.
2017-02-01T00:00:00ZFitzRoy, FelixJin, JimThe literature can justify increasing and decreasing marginal taxes (IMT & DMT) on top income under different social objectives and income distributions. Even if DMT are optimal, they are often politically infeasible. Then a flat tax seems to be a constrained optimal solution. We show however that, if we want to maximize the utility of a poor majority any flat tax can be inferior to some IMT. We provide a sufficient condition for (two-band) IMT to dominate any flat tax and further generalize this result to allow different welfare weights, declining elasticity of labour supply and more tax bands.The impact of World Bank and International Monetary Fund programme lending on health care delivery, health conditions and health status in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980 to 1992Evans, Christopher J.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/100132019-03-29T15:53:15Z1996-07-01T00:00:00ZThe World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been active in Africa for
several decades. In the early 1980s both institutions expanded the role that they play
in the restructuring of African economies through the introduction of structural
adjustment loans. These programme loans sought to provide the basis for sustainable
economic expansion following a period of near economic collapse in the region. In
the case of the Fund, public expenditure reducing and expenditure switching policies
were encouraged. The Bank, also, was active in these areas and focused on long-term
measures to restore efficiency to the ailing economies. These policies, although not
novel, were implemented on a large scale were perceived to have a pervasive
influence on the economic and social performance of African countries.
It was theorised by some that such programme lending would have a long-run
beneficial impact on social development. However, other authors, observers and
researchers have criticised the activities of the Bretton Woods institutions. First, the
loans have been heavily criticised in the past for the supposedly heavy handed nature
that Bank and Fund staff use in implementing their programmes. The main idea is
that the institutions have too much leverage when bargaining with African
governments to undertake reforms. Second, it has been said that the use of
programme loans will have adverse consequences for national welfare. UNICEF, the
main critic, has pointed out, and provided evidence, to indicate that vulnerable groups
in society may suffer under adjustment schemes.
This thesis looks at the areas of macroeconomic reforms and the impact that
they may have on one part of the social area: the health sector. The thesis examines
the pre-adjustment situation in Sub Saharan Africa and reviews the role and the tools
that the Bank and the Fund have at their disposal to tackle economic problems. The
thesis then moves on to explore the linkages between these policy weapons and
changes in health care development. In order to fully understand the implications for
Africa considerable attention is devoted to exploring the health problems that the
region faces and the health care delivery systems and health conditions that are
prevalent in many of the countries. The last part of the thesis provides an aggregate
study and a case study analysis of the impact of adjustment in Africa. Although, it is
determined that the impact, overall, has not been unfavourable, recommendations for
the future design of adjustment programmes is offered in the conclusion.
1996-07-01T00:00:00ZEvans, Christopher J.The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been active in Africa for
several decades. In the early 1980s both institutions expanded the role that they play
in the restructuring of African economies through the introduction of structural
adjustment loans. These programme loans sought to provide the basis for sustainable
economic expansion following a period of near economic collapse in the region. In
the case of the Fund, public expenditure reducing and expenditure switching policies
were encouraged. The Bank, also, was active in these areas and focused on long-term
measures to restore efficiency to the ailing economies. These policies, although not
novel, were implemented on a large scale were perceived to have a pervasive
influence on the economic and social performance of African countries.
It was theorised by some that such programme lending would have a long-run
beneficial impact on social development. However, other authors, observers and
researchers have criticised the activities of the Bretton Woods institutions. First, the
loans have been heavily criticised in the past for the supposedly heavy handed nature
that Bank and Fund staff use in implementing their programmes. The main idea is
that the institutions have too much leverage when bargaining with African
governments to undertake reforms. Second, it has been said that the use of
programme loans will have adverse consequences for national welfare. UNICEF, the
main critic, has pointed out, and provided evidence, to indicate that vulnerable groups
in society may suffer under adjustment schemes.
This thesis looks at the areas of macroeconomic reforms and the impact that
they may have on one part of the social area: the health sector. The thesis examines
the pre-adjustment situation in Sub Saharan Africa and reviews the role and the tools
that the Bank and the Fund have at their disposal to tackle economic problems. The
thesis then moves on to explore the linkages between these policy weapons and
changes in health care development. In order to fully understand the implications for
Africa considerable attention is devoted to exploring the health problems that the
region faces and the health care delivery systems and health conditions that are
prevalent in many of the countries. The last part of the thesis provides an aggregate
study and a case study analysis of the impact of adjustment in Africa. Although, it is
determined that the impact, overall, has not been unfavourable, recommendations for
the future design of adjustment programmes is offered in the conclusion.Essays on international portfolio choices and capital flowsZhang, Ninghttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/94892019-03-29T15:50:08Z2016-01-01T00:00:00ZThe goal of this thesis is to study the international portfolio choices of countries
in an asymmetric world. In practice, this corresponds to the salient facts of
country portfolios and the underlying structural asymmetries between developing
and developed countries in a financially integrated world. In the three main
chapters of the thesis, frameworks are developed to advance our understanding
of the way various country asymmetries contribute to the emergence of these
persistent phenomena in international capital markets.
The first essay studies the question of why developing countries experience net
equity inflows and bond outflows while developed countries experience net equity
outflows and bond inflows, the so-called ‘two-way capital flows’. The analysis is
based on an open-economy New Keynesian model of endogenous country portfolios
with representative agents in each country. The model is so general that
it allows one to perform an assessment of the roles of a long list of country
asymmetries in determining the pattern of two-way capital flows.
While steady-state net country portfolios are zero in the first essay, the second
and third essays consider the situations where this is not true. The second essay
presents an OLG model of an endowment economy with a country asymmetry in
households’ patience. Global imbalances in net positions emerge. Gross portfolio
positions are obtained as the sum of standard self-hedging and, moreover, the
hedging due to external imbalances. The valuation effects of external adjustments
between creditor and debtor countries are rationalized.
By introducing non-tradable risks, the third essay models a production OLG
economy with a country asymmetry in wealth division. Global imbalances in
net positions again arise. Gross portfolio positions are composed of self-hedging,
hedging of non-tradable income and hedging of external interest payments, which
accounts for the reality of asymmetric asset home bias, i.e. although assets are
locally biased everywhere, the pattern is more pronounced in creditor countries.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZZhang, NingThe goal of this thesis is to study the international portfolio choices of countries
in an asymmetric world. In practice, this corresponds to the salient facts of
country portfolios and the underlying structural asymmetries between developing
and developed countries in a financially integrated world. In the three main
chapters of the thesis, frameworks are developed to advance our understanding
of the way various country asymmetries contribute to the emergence of these
persistent phenomena in international capital markets.
The first essay studies the question of why developing countries experience net
equity inflows and bond outflows while developed countries experience net equity
outflows and bond inflows, the so-called ‘two-way capital flows’. The analysis is
based on an open-economy New Keynesian model of endogenous country portfolios
with representative agents in each country. The model is so general that
it allows one to perform an assessment of the roles of a long list of country
asymmetries in determining the pattern of two-way capital flows.
While steady-state net country portfolios are zero in the first essay, the second
and third essays consider the situations where this is not true. The second essay
presents an OLG model of an endowment economy with a country asymmetry in
households’ patience. Global imbalances in net positions emerge. Gross portfolio
positions are obtained as the sum of standard self-hedging and, moreover, the
hedging due to external imbalances. The valuation effects of external adjustments
between creditor and debtor countries are rationalized.
By introducing non-tradable risks, the third essay models a production OLG
economy with a country asymmetry in wealth division. Global imbalances in
net positions again arise. Gross portfolio positions are composed of self-hedging,
hedging of non-tradable income and hedging of external interest payments, which
accounts for the reality of asymmetric asset home bias, i.e. although assets are
locally biased everywhere, the pattern is more pronounced in creditor countries.Four essays on UK takeovers : evidence from matching analysisAdra, Samerhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/94882019-03-29T15:53:19Z2015-01-01T00:00:00ZIn four empirical chapters, matching analysis is employed to estimate the effects of specific
contractual and regulatory arrangements on particular deal outcomes in the UK takeover
market. The first chapter highlights the positive effect of earnout financing on the acquiring
firms' returns in private target acquisitions. Furthermore, this chapter offers a detailed example
of how the non-parametric Propensity Score Matching, despite its growing popularity in
financial research, can lead to inaccurate inferences when relevant private-target-specific
factors are omitted from the analysis. The second chapter provides the first empirical
examination of the effect of the earnout's terms on the premium offered to the target firm's
shareholders, and how information asymmetry concerns influence this premium. Additionally,
the findings indicate that increases in the premia are negatively interpreted by the market in
non-earnout financed deals. However, this negative effect is neutralised in comparable earnout
financed deals. The third chapter provides the first empirical contribution that highlights the
deal- and firm-related factors that contribute to the growing reliance on the Scheme of
Arrangement, as a substitute for the Contractual Offer, in conducting UK public target deals.
Despite the concerns raised in the legal literature about the limited bargaining power of the
target shareholders under the Scheme, the robust conclusions indicate that such shareholders
manage to receive premia that are at least as high as the premia received by shareholders in
comparable Offer deals. The fourth chapter employs a hand-collected dataset that covers the
incidences of termination fee use in the UK takeover market. The main result is that, in the
period preceding the ban that The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers had imposed on termination
fees, the inclusion of these fees had a beneficial, or at worst neutral, effect on target
shareholders' wealth. Consequently, it is recommended that the Panel ends its ban.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZAdra, SamerIn four empirical chapters, matching analysis is employed to estimate the effects of specific
contractual and regulatory arrangements on particular deal outcomes in the UK takeover
market. The first chapter highlights the positive effect of earnout financing on the acquiring
firms' returns in private target acquisitions. Furthermore, this chapter offers a detailed example
of how the non-parametric Propensity Score Matching, despite its growing popularity in
financial research, can lead to inaccurate inferences when relevant private-target-specific
factors are omitted from the analysis. The second chapter provides the first empirical
examination of the effect of the earnout's terms on the premium offered to the target firm's
shareholders, and how information asymmetry concerns influence this premium. Additionally,
the findings indicate that increases in the premia are negatively interpreted by the market in
non-earnout financed deals. However, this negative effect is neutralised in comparable earnout
financed deals. The third chapter provides the first empirical contribution that highlights the
deal- and firm-related factors that contribute to the growing reliance on the Scheme of
Arrangement, as a substitute for the Contractual Offer, in conducting UK public target deals.
Despite the concerns raised in the legal literature about the limited bargaining power of the
target shareholders under the Scheme, the robust conclusions indicate that such shareholders
manage to receive premia that are at least as high as the premia received by shareholders in
comparable Offer deals. The fourth chapter employs a hand-collected dataset that covers the
incidences of termination fee use in the UK takeover market. The main result is that, in the
period preceding the ban that The Panel on Takeovers and Mergers had imposed on termination
fees, the inclusion of these fees had a beneficial, or at worst neutral, effect on target
shareholders' wealth. Consequently, it is recommended that the Panel ends its ban.Three essays on the wealth effects of deferred payments in corporate takeoversAlexakis, Dimitrioshttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/94642019-03-29T15:50:19Z2015-01-01T00:00:00ZIn three papers, I employ parametric and nonparametric methods in order to further examine the
determinants of value creation in M&A deals financed with contingent earnout payments. The
first paper investigates the short-run wealth effects of earnouts in deals in which financial
advisors are counseling the acquiring firms. The results suggest that relative to using non-earnout
payments, acquirers enjoy higher abnormal returns from earnout use only when consulting
financial advisors. Specifically, once accounting for potential selection bias, advised earnout-financed deals significantly outperform deals that are financed with: (a) earnouts without the
involvement of financial advisors and (b) non-earnouts regardless of the involvement of financial
advisors. Thus, the likely ability of financial advisors to efficiently address the inherent
complexities of the design of earnouts leads to greater acquirer gains. The second paper
examines the impact of the acquiring firm’s informational environment on the announcement
period wealth effects of earnout-financing. The results suggest that under increased information
asymmetry over the acquiring firm, the market’s reaction to an earnout-financed deal mainly
reflects its inference that the acquirer’s stock is underpriced, rather than the deal’s synergy
potential. To this end, earnout acquirers are illustrated to be relatively undervalued prior to the
deal’s announcement. In contrast, the selection of earnouts by big acquirers with low information
asymmetry sends a strong signal for value creation that also prevents market participants from
inducing a size-related discount. Lastly, the third paper investigates the wealth effects of
earnouts in international changes of corporate control. The results suggest that when firms
choose to join a multinational network through the acquisition of a foreign company earnout-financing offers a major value-creating opportunity yielding greater announcement period
abnormal returns to acquirers relative to domestic and remaining cross-border deals. In contrast,
the likely presence of agency problems and monitoring costs appears to deteriorate the expected
synergy gains from non-initial earnout-financed international M&As.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZAlexakis, DimitriosIn three papers, I employ parametric and nonparametric methods in order to further examine the
determinants of value creation in M&A deals financed with contingent earnout payments. The
first paper investigates the short-run wealth effects of earnouts in deals in which financial
advisors are counseling the acquiring firms. The results suggest that relative to using non-earnout
payments, acquirers enjoy higher abnormal returns from earnout use only when consulting
financial advisors. Specifically, once accounting for potential selection bias, advised earnout-financed deals significantly outperform deals that are financed with: (a) earnouts without the
involvement of financial advisors and (b) non-earnouts regardless of the involvement of financial
advisors. Thus, the likely ability of financial advisors to efficiently address the inherent
complexities of the design of earnouts leads to greater acquirer gains. The second paper
examines the impact of the acquiring firm’s informational environment on the announcement
period wealth effects of earnout-financing. The results suggest that under increased information
asymmetry over the acquiring firm, the market’s reaction to an earnout-financed deal mainly
reflects its inference that the acquirer’s stock is underpriced, rather than the deal’s synergy
potential. To this end, earnout acquirers are illustrated to be relatively undervalued prior to the
deal’s announcement. In contrast, the selection of earnouts by big acquirers with low information
asymmetry sends a strong signal for value creation that also prevents market participants from
inducing a size-related discount. Lastly, the third paper investigates the wealth effects of
earnouts in international changes of corporate control. The results suggest that when firms
choose to join a multinational network through the acquisition of a foreign company earnout-financing offers a major value-creating opportunity yielding greater announcement period
abnormal returns to acquirers relative to domestic and remaining cross-border deals. In contrast,
the likely presence of agency problems and monitoring costs appears to deteriorate the expected
synergy gains from non-initial earnout-financed international M&As.Essays in competition policy, innovation and banking regulationSeifert, Jacobhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/94562019-03-29T15:53:15Z2014-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis investigates the optimal enforcement of competition policy in innovative
industries and in the banking sector. Chapter 2 analyses the welfare impact
of compulsory licensing in the context of unilateral refusals to license intellectual
property. When the risk-free rate is low, compulsory licensing is shown unambiguously
to increase consumer surplus. Compulsory licensing has an ambiguous
effect on total welfare, but is more likely to increase total welfare in industries
that are naturally less competitive. Compulsory licensing is also shown to be an
effective policy to protect competition per se. The chapter also demonstrates the
robustness of these results to alternative settings of R&D competition.
Chapter 3 develops a much more general framework for the study of optimal
competition policy enforcement in innovative industries. A major contribution of
this chapter is to separate carefully a firm's decision to innovate from its decision to
take some generic anti-competitive action. This allows us to differentiate between
firms' counterfactual behaviour, according to whether or not they would have
innovated in the absence of any potentially anti-competitive conduct. In contrast
to the existing literature, it is shown that the stringency of optimal policy will
be harsher towards firms that have innovated in addition to taking a given anticompetitive
action.
Chapter 4 develops a framework for competition policy in the banking sector,
which takes explicit account of capital regulation. In particular, conditions are
derived under which increases in the capital requirement increase the incentives of
banks to engage in a generic abuse of dominance in the loan market, and to exploit
depositors through the sale of ancillary financial products. Thus the central contribution
of this chapter is to clarify the conditions under which stability-focused
capital regulation conflicts with competition and consumer protection policy in
the banking sector.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZSeifert, JacobThis thesis investigates the optimal enforcement of competition policy in innovative
industries and in the banking sector. Chapter 2 analyses the welfare impact
of compulsory licensing in the context of unilateral refusals to license intellectual
property. When the risk-free rate is low, compulsory licensing is shown unambiguously
to increase consumer surplus. Compulsory licensing has an ambiguous
effect on total welfare, but is more likely to increase total welfare in industries
that are naturally less competitive. Compulsory licensing is also shown to be an
effective policy to protect competition per se. The chapter also demonstrates the
robustness of these results to alternative settings of R&D competition.
Chapter 3 develops a much more general framework for the study of optimal
competition policy enforcement in innovative industries. A major contribution of
this chapter is to separate carefully a firm's decision to innovate from its decision to
take some generic anti-competitive action. This allows us to differentiate between
firms' counterfactual behaviour, according to whether or not they would have
innovated in the absence of any potentially anti-competitive conduct. In contrast
to the existing literature, it is shown that the stringency of optimal policy will
be harsher towards firms that have innovated in addition to taking a given anticompetitive
action.
Chapter 4 develops a framework for competition policy in the banking sector,
which takes explicit account of capital regulation. In particular, conditions are
derived under which increases in the capital requirement increase the incentives of
banks to engage in a generic abuse of dominance in the loan market, and to exploit
depositors through the sale of ancillary financial products. Thus the central contribution
of this chapter is to clarify the conditions under which stability-focused
capital regulation conflicts with competition and consumer protection policy in
the banking sector.Examining monetary policy transmission in the People's Republic of China – structural change models with a Monetary Policy IndexEgan, Paul GerardLeddin, Anthony J.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/85762022-05-06T11:30:35Z2016-03-01T00:00:00ZThis paper estimates augmented versions of the Investment–Saving curve for the People's Republic of China in an attempt to examine the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy. It endeavors to account for any structural break, nonlinearity, or asymmetry in the transmission process by estimating a breakpoint model and a Markov switching model. The Investment–Saving curve equations are estimated using a Monetary Policy Index, which has been calculated using the Kalman filter. This index will account for the various monetary policy tools, both quantitative and qualitative, that the People's Bank of China has used over the period 1991–2014. The results of this paper suggest that monetary policy has an asymmetric affect depending on the level of output in relation to potential, and that the People's Republic of China's exchange rate policy has restricted the effectiveness of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy response.
The financial support of the Irish Research Council and The Paul Tansey Economics Postgraduate Research Scholarship is greatly appreciated.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZEgan, Paul GerardLeddin, Anthony J.This paper estimates augmented versions of the Investment–Saving curve for the People's Republic of China in an attempt to examine the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy. It endeavors to account for any structural break, nonlinearity, or asymmetry in the transmission process by estimating a breakpoint model and a Markov switching model. The Investment–Saving curve equations are estimated using a Monetary Policy Index, which has been calculated using the Kalman filter. This index will account for the various monetary policy tools, both quantitative and qualitative, that the People's Bank of China has used over the period 1991–2014. The results of this paper suggest that monetary policy has an asymmetric affect depending on the level of output in relation to potential, and that the People's Republic of China's exchange rate policy has restricted the effectiveness of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy response.Essays on corruption and development issuesLauw, Ervenhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/77842019-07-01T10:16:29Z2015-01-01T00:00:00ZCorruption is widely considered to have adverse effects on economic development through its negative impact on the volume and quality of public investment and the efficiency of government services. Conversely, many of these macro variables are determinants of corruption. However, there are few studies of this two-way interaction at the macro level. This thesis aims to extend the current literature on corruption and development by explicit investigation of two diverse channels through which corruption and economic development interact, namely women's share in politics and pollution. For each variable, the thesis presents a theoretical model in which corruption and economic development are determined endogenously in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We have four main results. First, female bureaucrats commit fewer corrupt acts than male bureaucrats because they have lower incentives to be corrupt. Second, corruption affects pollution directly by reducing pollution abatement resources and indirectly through its impact on development. As pollution and development appear to have an inverse U-shaped relationship, the total effect of corruption on pollution depends on the economy's level of income. Third, we confirm a simultaneous relationship between corruption and development. Fourth, for sufficiently low income levels, corruption and poverty may be permanent features of the economy. In addition to the two theoretical models, the thesis also presents an empirical investigation of the causal effect of women's share in parliament on corruption using panel data and gender quotas as instruments for women's share in parliament. Our results overturn the consensus since we find no causal effect of women's share in parliament on corruption, except in a particular case of Africa with reserved seats quotas.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZLauw, ErvenCorruption is widely considered to have adverse effects on economic development through its negative impact on the volume and quality of public investment and the efficiency of government services. Conversely, many of these macro variables are determinants of corruption. However, there are few studies of this two-way interaction at the macro level. This thesis aims to extend the current literature on corruption and development by explicit investigation of two diverse channels through which corruption and economic development interact, namely women's share in politics and pollution. For each variable, the thesis presents a theoretical model in which corruption and economic development are determined endogenously in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We have four main results. First, female bureaucrats commit fewer corrupt acts than male bureaucrats because they have lower incentives to be corrupt. Second, corruption affects pollution directly by reducing pollution abatement resources and indirectly through its impact on development. As pollution and development appear to have an inverse U-shaped relationship, the total effect of corruption on pollution depends on the economy's level of income. Third, we confirm a simultaneous relationship between corruption and development. Fourth, for sufficiently low income levels, corruption and poverty may be permanent features of the economy. In addition to the two theoretical models, the thesis also presents an empirical investigation of the causal effect of women's share in parliament on corruption using panel data and gender quotas as instruments for women's share in parliament. Our results overturn the consensus since we find no causal effect of women's share in parliament on corruption, except in a particular case of Africa with reserved seats quotas.Regional development of the Aswan region of Egypt with special reference to the Aswan High DamHammouda, I. S.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/71272019-03-29T15:50:08Z1973-01-01T00:00:00ZThis study is concerned with the problems of regional development.
In modern times, the different institutions within the nation-state have
multiplied in number and increased in size and complexity so that it is
becoming more and more difficult for these institutions,
functioning
centrally, to achieve economic and social progress and to create efficient political and administrative systems. Local diversities and
interests as well as national goals need to be observed and coordinated
in order to achieve the required progress. Accordingly many countries
are now tending to develop regional systems to suit their particular
conditions,
the aim being to lessen the risk of the central institutions'
monopolizing political, economic and social powers, and at the same time
to keep individual regions integrated into a single coherent unit for
the good of the nation as a whole and for the good of the regions
themselves.
The present work comprises two parts. Part One deals with
definitions and some general problems of regional development. For the
purpose of exemplifying these generalisations, as well as glancing at the
background of Aswan Region, we shall refer at this stage to some cases
from Egypt.
Part Two deals with regional development in the Aswan Region of
Egypt. This Region may provide a useful example of economic and social
development related to planned growth. The Aswan High Dam and the
intensive development programmes in the Region play an important role in
the changes that are taking place both in that Region and in the rest
of Egypt. Part Two will also examine the background of Aswan Region,
describing the High Dam and evaluating its consequences, then evaluating
the regional development of Aswan Region and considering how far the concept of regional planning is applicable to the activities taking
place there.
The study,
it is emphasized, is intended to be primarily a descriptive and analytical one, and no attempt is made to construct mathematical
regional and interregional models.
1973-01-01T00:00:00ZHammouda, I. S.This study is concerned with the problems of regional development.
In modern times, the different institutions within the nation-state have
multiplied in number and increased in size and complexity so that it is
becoming more and more difficult for these institutions,
functioning
centrally, to achieve economic and social progress and to create efficient political and administrative systems. Local diversities and
interests as well as national goals need to be observed and coordinated
in order to achieve the required progress. Accordingly many countries
are now tending to develop regional systems to suit their particular
conditions,
the aim being to lessen the risk of the central institutions'
monopolizing political, economic and social powers, and at the same time
to keep individual regions integrated into a single coherent unit for
the good of the nation as a whole and for the good of the regions
themselves.
The present work comprises two parts. Part One deals with
definitions and some general problems of regional development. For the
purpose of exemplifying these generalisations, as well as glancing at the
background of Aswan Region, we shall refer at this stage to some cases
from Egypt.
Part Two deals with regional development in the Aswan Region of
Egypt. This Region may provide a useful example of economic and social
development related to planned growth. The Aswan High Dam and the
intensive development programmes in the Region play an important role in
the changes that are taking place both in that Region and in the rest
of Egypt. Part Two will also examine the background of Aswan Region,
describing the High Dam and evaluating its consequences, then evaluating
the regional development of Aswan Region and considering how far the concept of regional planning is applicable to the activities taking
place there.
The study,
it is emphasized, is intended to be primarily a descriptive and analytical one, and no attempt is made to construct mathematical
regional and interregional models.Numerical analysis and multi-precision computational methods applied to the extant problems of Asian option pricing and simulating stable distributions and unit root densitiesCao, Lianghttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/65392019-07-01T10:03:52Z2014-12-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis considers new methods that exploit recent developments in computer technology to address three extant problems in the area of Finance and Econometrics. The problem of Asian option pricing has endured for the last two decades in spite of many attempts to find a robust solution across all parameter values. All recently proposed methods are shown to fail when computations are conducted using standard machine precision because as more and more accuracy is forced upon the problem, round-off error begins to propagate. Using recent methods from numerical analysis based on multi-precision arithmetic, we show using the Mathematica platform that all extant methods have efficacy when computations use sufficient arithmetic precision. This creates the proper framework to compare and contrast the methods based on criteria such as computational speed for a given accuracy. Numerical methods based on a deformation of the Bromwich contour in the Geman-Yor Laplace transform are found to perform best provided the normalized strike price is above a given threshold; otherwise methods based on Euler approximation are preferred.
The same methods are applied in two other contexts: the simulation of stable distributions and the computation of unit root densities in Econometrics. The stable densities are all nested in a general function called a Fox H function. The same computational difficulties as above apply when using only double-precision arithmetic but are again solved using higher arithmetic precision. We also consider simulating the densities of infinitely divisible distributions associated with hyperbolic functions. Finally, our methods are applied to unit root densities. Focusing on the two fundamental densities, we show our methods perform favorably against the extant methods of Monte Carlo simulation, the Imhof algorithm and some analytical expressions derived principally by Abadir. Using Mathematica, the main two-dimensional Laplace transform in this context is reduced to a one-dimensional problem.
2014-12-01T00:00:00ZCao, LiangThis thesis considers new methods that exploit recent developments in computer technology to address three extant problems in the area of Finance and Econometrics. The problem of Asian option pricing has endured for the last two decades in spite of many attempts to find a robust solution across all parameter values. All recently proposed methods are shown to fail when computations are conducted using standard machine precision because as more and more accuracy is forced upon the problem, round-off error begins to propagate. Using recent methods from numerical analysis based on multi-precision arithmetic, we show using the Mathematica platform that all extant methods have efficacy when computations use sufficient arithmetic precision. This creates the proper framework to compare and contrast the methods based on criteria such as computational speed for a given accuracy. Numerical methods based on a deformation of the Bromwich contour in the Geman-Yor Laplace transform are found to perform best provided the normalized strike price is above a given threshold; otherwise methods based on Euler approximation are preferred.
The same methods are applied in two other contexts: the simulation of stable distributions and the computation of unit root densities in Econometrics. The stable densities are all nested in a general function called a Fox H function. The same computational difficulties as above apply when using only double-precision arithmetic but are again solved using higher arithmetic precision. We also consider simulating the densities of infinitely divisible distributions associated with hyperbolic functions. Finally, our methods are applied to unit root densities. Focusing on the two fundamental densities, we show our methods perform favorably against the extant methods of Monte Carlo simulation, the Imhof algorithm and some analytical expressions derived principally by Abadir. Using Mathematica, the main two-dimensional Laplace transform in this context is reduced to a one-dimensional problem.Conventional and unconventional monetary policy in a DSGE model with an interbank market frictionChen, Jinyuhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/63722023-06-29T13:54:43Z2014-06-27T00:00:00ZThis thesis examines both conventional and unconventional monetary policies in
a DSGE model with an interbank market friction. The recent crisis during 2007-2009
affected economies worldwide and forced central banks to implement not just conventional
monetary policies, but also direct interventions in financial markets. We investigate a
DSGE model with financial frictions, to test conventional and unconventional monetary
policies.
The thesis starts by using the Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)’s modelling framework,
to examine eight different shocks under imperfect interbank market conditions. Unlike
Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010) who consider the two extreme cases for the banking system, I
firstly extend the analysis to a case in between the two extreme cases that they examined.
The shocks considered include supply and demand shocks and also two shocks from the
financial system itself (an interbank market shock and a shock to the deposit market).
It is found that a negative shock to the interbank market has only a moderate impact to
the banking system. However, a shock to the deposit market has a much stronger impact.
Even though the impacts of these shocks are not large it is shown that thefinancial frictions
magnify the effects of other shocks.
The model is extended to include price stickiness. A modified Taylor rule is analysed
to test how conventional monetary policy should respond to the shocks in the presence of
financial frictions. Specifically the credit spread is added as a third term in the monetary
policy rule. The stabilising properties of the policy rule are analysed and a welfare analysis is conducted. The model is further developed to include unconventional monetary policy
in the form of direct lending to private sector firms from the central bank. A policy rule
for unconventional policy is tested and its stabilising and welfare properties are analysed.
2014-06-27T00:00:00ZChen, JinyuThis thesis examines both conventional and unconventional monetary policies in
a DSGE model with an interbank market friction. The recent crisis during 2007-2009
affected economies worldwide and forced central banks to implement not just conventional
monetary policies, but also direct interventions in financial markets. We investigate a
DSGE model with financial frictions, to test conventional and unconventional monetary
policies.
The thesis starts by using the Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)’s modelling framework,
to examine eight different shocks under imperfect interbank market conditions. Unlike
Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010) who consider the two extreme cases for the banking system, I
firstly extend the analysis to a case in between the two extreme cases that they examined.
The shocks considered include supply and demand shocks and also two shocks from the
financial system itself (an interbank market shock and a shock to the deposit market).
It is found that a negative shock to the interbank market has only a moderate impact to
the banking system. However, a shock to the deposit market has a much stronger impact.
Even though the impacts of these shocks are not large it is shown that thefinancial frictions
magnify the effects of other shocks.
The model is extended to include price stickiness. A modified Taylor rule is analysed
to test how conventional monetary policy should respond to the shocks in the presence of
financial frictions. Specifically the credit spread is added as a third term in the monetary
policy rule. The stabilising properties of the policy rule are analysed and a welfare analysis is conducted. The model is further developed to include unconventional monetary policy
in the form of direct lending to private sector firms from the central bank. A policy rule
for unconventional policy is tested and its stabilising and welfare properties are analysed.Essays on governance, public finance, and economic developmentOkumu, Ibrahim Mikehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/52822019-03-29T15:53:31Z2014-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is composed of three distinct but related essays. The first essay
studies the role of the size of the economy in mitigating the impact of
public sector corruption on economic development. The analysis is based on
a dynamic general equilibrium model in which growth occurs endogenously
through the invention and manufacture of new intermediate goods that are
used in the production of output. Potential innovators decide to enter the
market considering the fraction of future profits that may be lost to corruption.
We find that depending on the number of times bribes are demanded,
the size of the economy may be an important factor in determining the effects
of corruption on innovation and economic growth.
The second essay presents an occupational choice model in which a household
can choose either formal or informal entrepreneurship or at the subsistence
livelihood. Credit market constraints and initial wealth conditions
(bequest) determine an agent’s occupational choice. Corruption arises when
bureaucrats exchange investment permits for bribes. Corruption worsens
credit market constraints. Equilibrium with corruption is characterised by
an increase (decrease) in informal (formal) entrepreneurship and a decrease in
formal entrepreneurship wealth. Since corruption-induced credit constrained
households choose informal entrepreneurship as opposed to subsistence livelihood
income in the formal sector, the informal economy is shown to mitigate
the extent of income inequality.
The third essay explains the role of bureaucratic corruption in undermining
public service delivery, public finance, and economic development
through incentivising tax evasion. The analysis is based on a dynamic general
equilibrium model in which a taxable household observes the quality of
public services and decides whether or not to fulfil his tax obligation. Bureaucratic
corruption compromises the quality of public services such that a
taxable household develops incentives to evade tax payment. We show that
corruption-induced tax evasion increases the likelihood of a budget deficit,
renders tax payable increase counter-productive, and aggravates the negative
effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic development.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZOkumu, Ibrahim MikeThis thesis is composed of three distinct but related essays. The first essay
studies the role of the size of the economy in mitigating the impact of
public sector corruption on economic development. The analysis is based on
a dynamic general equilibrium model in which growth occurs endogenously
through the invention and manufacture of new intermediate goods that are
used in the production of output. Potential innovators decide to enter the
market considering the fraction of future profits that may be lost to corruption.
We find that depending on the number of times bribes are demanded,
the size of the economy may be an important factor in determining the effects
of corruption on innovation and economic growth.
The second essay presents an occupational choice model in which a household
can choose either formal or informal entrepreneurship or at the subsistence
livelihood. Credit market constraints and initial wealth conditions
(bequest) determine an agent’s occupational choice. Corruption arises when
bureaucrats exchange investment permits for bribes. Corruption worsens
credit market constraints. Equilibrium with corruption is characterised by
an increase (decrease) in informal (formal) entrepreneurship and a decrease in
formal entrepreneurship wealth. Since corruption-induced credit constrained
households choose informal entrepreneurship as opposed to subsistence livelihood
income in the formal sector, the informal economy is shown to mitigate
the extent of income inequality.
The third essay explains the role of bureaucratic corruption in undermining
public service delivery, public finance, and economic development
through incentivising tax evasion. The analysis is based on a dynamic general
equilibrium model in which a taxable household observes the quality of
public services and decides whether or not to fulfil his tax obligation. Bureaucratic
corruption compromises the quality of public services such that a
taxable household develops incentives to evade tax payment. We show that
corruption-induced tax evasion increases the likelihood of a budget deficit,
renders tax payable increase counter-productive, and aggravates the negative
effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic development.ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) : how far have we come? : analysis and evidence on effects of AFTANiyomsuk, Orachathttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/44752019-03-29T15:49:45Z2013-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis addresses issues concerning trade effects of a particular RTA: AFTA. In the
first part of the thesis, 2 different but related gravity frameworks are constructed as to
evaluate the independent effects of AFTA on relevant countries’ trade flows. The first
paper proposes examining ‘AFTA-effects’ on members’ trade, specifically within the
AFTA context. This aims to distinguish trade effects that AFTA has had on early and
delayed members’ trading patterns. The panel ‘Gravity Model’ is constructed, pointing
to control for several biases commonly observed in the cross-section model. Although
the result implies that early members do share trade benefits from AFTA more than
non-members, the overall ‘AFTA-effects’ on the membership’s trade have not been
benign. Another paper measures ‘AFTA-effects’ on both members’ and non-members’
trade. This aims to assess whether AFTA has played a role as an export base for the
international market. In this case, ‘AFTA-effects’ appeared positive. Such effects are
driven by an enhancement in extra-export bias, suggesting that the membership’s
exports to outside destinations have increased post-AFTA. The last paper provides a
theoretical framework addressing the incidence of RTA-membership expansion. The
fact that AFTA was gradually established and empirical results indicating AFTA’s
impacts on members and non-members brings about the idea that bloc-membership
expansion could plausibly be explained by the economic effects that these countries
have received. The corollaries of trading with/without RTA-membership of a potential
member’s gains of trade and welfare levels are related to the decision towards
membership. Even though welfare effects are not always greater, the RTA-membership
status surely benefits member countries in gains from trade more than non-members. This can be perceived as one of the important reasons to explain the widespread
regionalism worldwide and why joining the RTA is often seen as a safe haven strategy
for a country.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZNiyomsuk, OrachatThis thesis addresses issues concerning trade effects of a particular RTA: AFTA. In the
first part of the thesis, 2 different but related gravity frameworks are constructed as to
evaluate the independent effects of AFTA on relevant countries’ trade flows. The first
paper proposes examining ‘AFTA-effects’ on members’ trade, specifically within the
AFTA context. This aims to distinguish trade effects that AFTA has had on early and
delayed members’ trading patterns. The panel ‘Gravity Model’ is constructed, pointing
to control for several biases commonly observed in the cross-section model. Although
the result implies that early members do share trade benefits from AFTA more than
non-members, the overall ‘AFTA-effects’ on the membership’s trade have not been
benign. Another paper measures ‘AFTA-effects’ on both members’ and non-members’
trade. This aims to assess whether AFTA has played a role as an export base for the
international market. In this case, ‘AFTA-effects’ appeared positive. Such effects are
driven by an enhancement in extra-export bias, suggesting that the membership’s
exports to outside destinations have increased post-AFTA. The last paper provides a
theoretical framework addressing the incidence of RTA-membership expansion. The
fact that AFTA was gradually established and empirical results indicating AFTA’s
impacts on members and non-members brings about the idea that bloc-membership
expansion could plausibly be explained by the economic effects that these countries
have received. The corollaries of trading with/without RTA-membership of a potential
member’s gains of trade and welfare levels are related to the decision towards
membership. Even though welfare effects are not always greater, the RTA-membership
status surely benefits member countries in gains from trade more than non-members. This can be perceived as one of the important reasons to explain the widespread
regionalism worldwide and why joining the RTA is often seen as a safe haven strategy
for a country.Cost and policy implications of agricultural pollution, with special reference to pesticidesWilson, Clevohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/37252019-07-01T10:12:28Z1999-01-01T00:00:00ZModem commercial agricultural practices involving chemical inputs such as fertilisers
and pesticides have been associated with huge increases in food production never
witnessed before, and in the case of cereal production (especially wheat) under Green
Revolution technology, recorded spectacular growth. As statistics show, production and
productivity have increased. However, the high chemical usage of fertilizers and
pesticides used to bring about these increases in food production are not without
problems. A visible parallel correlation between higher productivity, high artificial input use and environmental degradation and human health effects is evident in many countries where commercial agriculture is widespread. The high usage of these chemical inputs has caused numerous pollution problems impacting on human health, agricultural land, other production processes, wildlife and the environment in general. The private and external costs are very high. Such a production path is clearly unsustainable. This Ph.D. study lays its focus on estimating the private costs of illnesses arising from direct exposure to pesticides during handling and spraying by farmers on their farms in Sri Lanka. For this purpose three valuation techniques are used. They are the contingent valuation, cost of illness and the aversive behaviour approaches. Multiple regression analyses are also carried out to establish several relationships involving pesticide handling/spraying and direct exposure to pesticides. Policy implications of the regression analyses are then discussed. A health production model showing the relationships between the three approaches used for estimating the private costs of ill health and thereby inferring the willingness to pay for pollution control is presented. The theoretical background to agricultural pollution, drawing examples mostly from Asia, is also dealt within this thesis.
Data for this Ph.D. study were obtained from a field survey carried out in the summer of
1996. During this survey, 227 subsistence farmers handling and spraying pesticides on a
regular basis were interviewed to gather the necessary data. For the analysis of data, only 203 samples are used.
1999-01-01T00:00:00ZWilson, ClevoModem commercial agricultural practices involving chemical inputs such as fertilisers
and pesticides have been associated with huge increases in food production never
witnessed before, and in the case of cereal production (especially wheat) under Green
Revolution technology, recorded spectacular growth. As statistics show, production and
productivity have increased. However, the high chemical usage of fertilizers and
pesticides used to bring about these increases in food production are not without
problems. A visible parallel correlation between higher productivity, high artificial input use and environmental degradation and human health effects is evident in many countries where commercial agriculture is widespread. The high usage of these chemical inputs has caused numerous pollution problems impacting on human health, agricultural land, other production processes, wildlife and the environment in general. The private and external costs are very high. Such a production path is clearly unsustainable. This Ph.D. study lays its focus on estimating the private costs of illnesses arising from direct exposure to pesticides during handling and spraying by farmers on their farms in Sri Lanka. For this purpose three valuation techniques are used. They are the contingent valuation, cost of illness and the aversive behaviour approaches. Multiple regression analyses are also carried out to establish several relationships involving pesticide handling/spraying and direct exposure to pesticides. Policy implications of the regression analyses are then discussed. A health production model showing the relationships between the three approaches used for estimating the private costs of ill health and thereby inferring the willingness to pay for pollution control is presented. The theoretical background to agricultural pollution, drawing examples mostly from Asia, is also dealt within this thesis.
Data for this Ph.D. study were obtained from a field survey carried out in the summer of
1996. During this survey, 227 subsistence farmers handling and spraying pesticides on a
regular basis were interviewed to gather the necessary data. For the analysis of data, only 203 samples are used.Essays on housing and monetary policyNam, Min-Hohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/36812019-07-01T10:05:16Z2013-03-19T00:00:00ZThis thesis, motivated by my reflections about the failings of monetary policy implementation as a cause of the sub-prime crisis, attempts to answer the following inquiries: (i) whether interest rates have played a major role in generating the house price fluctuations in the U.S., (ii) what are the effects of accommodative monetary policy on the economy given banks' excessive risk-taking, and (iii) whether an optimal monetary policy rule can be found for curbing credit-driven economic volatilities in the model economy with unconventional transmission channels operating.
By using a decomposition technique and regression analysis, it can be shown that short-term interest rates exert the most potent influence on the evolution of the volatile components of housing prices. One possible explanation for this is that low policy rates for a prolonged period tend to encourage bankers to take on more risk in lending. This transmission channel, labelled as the risk-taking channel, accounts for the gap to some extent between the forecast and the actual impact of monetary policy on the housing market and the overall economy. A looser monetary policy stance can also shift the preference of economic agents toward housing as theoretically and empirically corroborated in the context of choice between durable and nondurable goods. This transmission route is termed the preference channel. If these two channels are operative in the economy, policy makers need to react aggressively to rapid credit growth in order to stabilize the paths of housing prices and output. These findings provide meaningful implications for monetary policy implementation. First of all, central bankers should strive to identify in a timely fashion newly emerging and state-dependent transmission channels of monetary policy, and accurately assess the impact of policy decisions transmitted through these channels. Secondly, the intervention of central banks in the credit or housing market by adjusting policy rates can be optimal, relative to inaction, in circumstances where banks' risk-taking and the preference for housing are overly exuberant.
2013-03-19T00:00:00ZNam, Min-HoThis thesis, motivated by my reflections about the failings of monetary policy implementation as a cause of the sub-prime crisis, attempts to answer the following inquiries: (i) whether interest rates have played a major role in generating the house price fluctuations in the U.S., (ii) what are the effects of accommodative monetary policy on the economy given banks' excessive risk-taking, and (iii) whether an optimal monetary policy rule can be found for curbing credit-driven economic volatilities in the model economy with unconventional transmission channels operating.
By using a decomposition technique and regression analysis, it can be shown that short-term interest rates exert the most potent influence on the evolution of the volatile components of housing prices. One possible explanation for this is that low policy rates for a prolonged period tend to encourage bankers to take on more risk in lending. This transmission channel, labelled as the risk-taking channel, accounts for the gap to some extent between the forecast and the actual impact of monetary policy on the housing market and the overall economy. A looser monetary policy stance can also shift the preference of economic agents toward housing as theoretically and empirically corroborated in the context of choice between durable and nondurable goods. This transmission route is termed the preference channel. If these two channels are operative in the economy, policy makers need to react aggressively to rapid credit growth in order to stabilize the paths of housing prices and output. These findings provide meaningful implications for monetary policy implementation. First of all, central bankers should strive to identify in a timely fashion newly emerging and state-dependent transmission channels of monetary policy, and accurately assess the impact of policy decisions transmitted through these channels. Secondly, the intervention of central banks in the credit or housing market by adjusting policy rates can be optimal, relative to inaction, in circumstances where banks' risk-taking and the preference for housing are overly exuberant.Multi-task research and research joint venturesLa Manna, Manfredi M Ahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/34972023-04-25T23:35:52Z2013-04-01T00:00:00ZThe paper shows that, whenever the completion of a research project requires the overcoming of more than one research obstacle, then Research Joint Ventures enjoy an intrinsic advantage relative to independent firms. This advantage, which has hitherto escaped attention in the RJV literature, relates to the RJV’s ability to organize research more efficiently than independent firms. The fact that RJVs can be both more profitable and yield higher expected net welfare than independent firms is surprising because it is derived from a model in which RJVs do not optimize over R&D investment. The paper exploits a basic result in systems reliability theory to establish the organizational superiority of RJVs.
2013-04-01T00:00:00ZLa Manna, Manfredi M AThe paper shows that, whenever the completion of a research project requires the overcoming of more than one research obstacle, then Research Joint Ventures enjoy an intrinsic advantage relative to independent firms. This advantage, which has hitherto escaped attention in the RJV literature, relates to the RJV’s ability to organize research more efficiently than independent firms. The fact that RJVs can be both more profitable and yield higher expected net welfare than independent firms is surprising because it is derived from a model in which RJVs do not optimize over R&D investment. The paper exploits a basic result in systems reliability theory to establish the organizational superiority of RJVs.Markets and how they work: a comparative analysis of fieldwork evidence on globalisation, corporate governance, institutional structure and competition in Russia, India and China, supported by a quantitative worldwide cross-section study of market anomaliesDyrmose, Mortenhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/32332019-07-01T10:18:56Z2012-11-30T00:00:00ZThis thesis examines the efficacy of markets, using both quantitative and
qualitative methods in a complementary way. Specifically, it starts (in Part II) by using the results from a quantitative analysis of initial public offering
(IPO) underpricing as a barometer for corporate governance failure. This
quantitative work identified Russia, China and India as extreme outliers. The
data set used for this work was the cross-section sample of 45 countries developed by Loughran, Ritter & Rydqvist (2008). More broadly (in Part III), the thesis takes the lead of the quantitative evidence to examine, in a qualitative framework, possible sources of corporate governance failure in China, India and Russia. This was done categorically, under the headings of Globalisation, Corporate Governance, Institutional Structure and Competitive Strategy. Data were gathered by eldwork in China, India and Russia, and these findings were then benchmarked against findings from further fieldwork in the United Kingdom.
This created a unique 56,000 word database, which was used for both cross-site and within-site analysis. This indicates how both unique attributes (e.g. rule of law, transparency, regulation, etc.), and common attributes (e.g. transition from a socialist/Marxist regime, market immaturity, asymmetric information etc.), combine to explain the different morphologies of corporate governance in these three countries.
The quantitative analysis (Part II) consists of exploratory data analysis (EDA) and econometric work. The exploratory data analysis establishes, through graphical means and regression techniques, a negative correlation between IPO underpricing and globalisation (as measured by the KOF index, see Dreher, 2006). Building on this, the subsequent econometric modelling suggests that economic, demographic and institutional factors are all significant determinants of IPO underpricing.
The qualitative analysis carried out in Part III of the thesis, builds on and extends the quantitative analysis of Part II. This is consistent with the multiple method approach, which combines both quantitative and qualitative analysis to achieve a synthesis of findings. The qualitative analysis uses evidence from semi-structured interviews with finance professionals and opinion makers, as well as evidence from additional primary and secondary sources, which was also made available through fieldwork contacts. This analysis emphasises the especial importance of board composition, information flows, the judicial system, the stock exchanges, and financial regulators for forms of corporate governance.
2012-11-30T00:00:00ZDyrmose, MortenThis thesis examines the efficacy of markets, using both quantitative and
qualitative methods in a complementary way. Specifically, it starts (in Part II) by using the results from a quantitative analysis of initial public offering
(IPO) underpricing as a barometer for corporate governance failure. This
quantitative work identified Russia, China and India as extreme outliers. The
data set used for this work was the cross-section sample of 45 countries developed by Loughran, Ritter & Rydqvist (2008). More broadly (in Part III), the thesis takes the lead of the quantitative evidence to examine, in a qualitative framework, possible sources of corporate governance failure in China, India and Russia. This was done categorically, under the headings of Globalisation, Corporate Governance, Institutional Structure and Competitive Strategy. Data were gathered by eldwork in China, India and Russia, and these findings were then benchmarked against findings from further fieldwork in the United Kingdom.
This created a unique 56,000 word database, which was used for both cross-site and within-site analysis. This indicates how both unique attributes (e.g. rule of law, transparency, regulation, etc.), and common attributes (e.g. transition from a socialist/Marxist regime, market immaturity, asymmetric information etc.), combine to explain the different morphologies of corporate governance in these three countries.
The quantitative analysis (Part II) consists of exploratory data analysis (EDA) and econometric work. The exploratory data analysis establishes, through graphical means and regression techniques, a negative correlation between IPO underpricing and globalisation (as measured by the KOF index, see Dreher, 2006). Building on this, the subsequent econometric modelling suggests that economic, demographic and institutional factors are all significant determinants of IPO underpricing.
The qualitative analysis carried out in Part III of the thesis, builds on and extends the quantitative analysis of Part II. This is consistent with the multiple method approach, which combines both quantitative and qualitative analysis to achieve a synthesis of findings. The qualitative analysis uses evidence from semi-structured interviews with finance professionals and opinion makers, as well as evidence from additional primary and secondary sources, which was also made available through fieldwork contacts. This analysis emphasises the especial importance of board composition, information flows, the judicial system, the stock exchanges, and financial regulators for forms of corporate governance.Empirical investigations into stock market integration and risk monitoring of the emerging Chinese stock marketsChen, Xinghttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/32082019-03-29T15:49:53Z2012-06-19T00:00:00ZThe degree of stock market integration has important implications for cross-border portfolio
diversification, for which Mainland China has become an attractive destination,
particularly following the gradual opening-up of its A-share market to foreign institutional
investors. The first part of this thesis explores the various aspects of stock market integration
taking place in Mainland China, in an attempt to resolve the ambiguity between extant
empirical and anecdotal evidence on the issue. The evidence drawn from different statistical
perspectives collectively establishes that the Mainland Chinese stock market is in a process of
further integrating with a selection of the world’s developed stock markets. Nevertheless, such
increased integration should not preclude foreign institutional investors from diversifying into
the Chinese A-share market, as the current integration is far from being complete.
Adopting appropriate risk monitoring techniques for venturing into the volatile Chinese A-share market is another imperative issue faced by foreign institutional investors, whose risk
practices and economic capital are largely regulated by the Basel Accord. The second leg of
this thesis addresses this problem through an evaluation of various volatility forecasting
models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) reporting. Our results highlight the importance of adopting
heterogeneous risk monitoring models in different investment environments for the purpose
of regulatory compliance and optimal economic capital allocation.
Overall, the studies contained in this thesis should add knowledge to the burgeoning literature
on international financial integration at large, while serving the interests of institutional
investors and financial regulatory authorities alike.
2012-06-19T00:00:00ZChen, XingThe degree of stock market integration has important implications for cross-border portfolio
diversification, for which Mainland China has become an attractive destination,
particularly following the gradual opening-up of its A-share market to foreign institutional
investors. The first part of this thesis explores the various aspects of stock market integration
taking place in Mainland China, in an attempt to resolve the ambiguity between extant
empirical and anecdotal evidence on the issue. The evidence drawn from different statistical
perspectives collectively establishes that the Mainland Chinese stock market is in a process of
further integrating with a selection of the world’s developed stock markets. Nevertheless, such
increased integration should not preclude foreign institutional investors from diversifying into
the Chinese A-share market, as the current integration is far from being complete.
Adopting appropriate risk monitoring techniques for venturing into the volatile Chinese A-share market is another imperative issue faced by foreign institutional investors, whose risk
practices and economic capital are largely regulated by the Basel Accord. The second leg of
this thesis addresses this problem through an evaluation of various volatility forecasting
models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) reporting. Our results highlight the importance of adopting
heterogeneous risk monitoring models in different investment environments for the purpose
of regulatory compliance and optimal economic capital allocation.
Overall, the studies contained in this thesis should add knowledge to the burgeoning literature
on international financial integration at large, while serving the interests of institutional
investors and financial regulatory authorities alike.A study of financial distress and R&D in Chinese enterprisesHan, Jiehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/32042019-03-29T15:53:15Z2012-11-30T00:00:00ZOver the past 30 years, the Chinese economy has been going through complex
transformation from a centrally planned towards a market economy. The reform of the
enterprises has played an important part in this transformation. This is in addition to
macro economy reforms, as well as changes in the institutional framework.
The thesis examines the implications of macroeconomic, ownership structure,
as well as comprehensive institutional framework changes for Chinese enterprises’
survival and R&D activities.
I study the impact of both microeconomic factors and the macro economy on
the financial distress of Chinese listed companies over a period of massive economic
transition, 1995 to 2006. Using hazard regression analysis, I find substantial effects of
firm level covariates (age, size, cash flow and gearing) on financial distress, but also
significant roles for macroeconomic stability and institution effect. Business exits in
my data on Chinese quoted firms are vanishingly rare, arguably because of active state
protection for the failing firms. I investigate the firms’ innovation activity and efficiency of different ownership
sectors. Ownership influence on R&D investment and efficiency is estimated, using
productivity frontier function, for a sample of large and medium size Chinese industrial
enterprises from 2000-2007. I found that the presence of state ownership is positively
related to R&D investment, but negatively related to R&D performance. Foreign firms
are technical leaders in Chinese industries and have advantage in R&D efficiency. My
results also show significant cross industries differences in R&D effort and technical
level. These point out that firms possessing more innovation resources and government
support are not the ones performing better technically.
I extend my study into a more general mixed duopoly model in which a welfare maximizing public firm competes with profit maximizing private firm in R&D. I
assume that different operation strategy influence firms’ tolerance of R&D spillover
which plays a key role in their R&D investment mount and technology efficiency. I
prove that a public firm is more likely to share its R&D fruit and its higher R&D invest-
ment is accompanied by lower efficiency.
Overall, macroeconomy on firm survival and ownership structure on firm innovation activities are channels to understand Chinese economy reform. Because conditions in China were similar in many ways to other transition economies, these results
provide important information about the process of economic transformation more
generally.
2012-11-30T00:00:00ZHan, JieOver the past 30 years, the Chinese economy has been going through complex
transformation from a centrally planned towards a market economy. The reform of the
enterprises has played an important part in this transformation. This is in addition to
macro economy reforms, as well as changes in the institutional framework.
The thesis examines the implications of macroeconomic, ownership structure,
as well as comprehensive institutional framework changes for Chinese enterprises’
survival and R&D activities.
I study the impact of both microeconomic factors and the macro economy on
the financial distress of Chinese listed companies over a period of massive economic
transition, 1995 to 2006. Using hazard regression analysis, I find substantial effects of
firm level covariates (age, size, cash flow and gearing) on financial distress, but also
significant roles for macroeconomic stability and institution effect. Business exits in
my data on Chinese quoted firms are vanishingly rare, arguably because of active state
protection for the failing firms. I investigate the firms’ innovation activity and efficiency of different ownership
sectors. Ownership influence on R&D investment and efficiency is estimated, using
productivity frontier function, for a sample of large and medium size Chinese industrial
enterprises from 2000-2007. I found that the presence of state ownership is positively
related to R&D investment, but negatively related to R&D performance. Foreign firms
are technical leaders in Chinese industries and have advantage in R&D efficiency. My
results also show significant cross industries differences in R&D effort and technical
level. These point out that firms possessing more innovation resources and government
support are not the ones performing better technically.
I extend my study into a more general mixed duopoly model in which a welfare maximizing public firm competes with profit maximizing private firm in R&D. I
assume that different operation strategy influence firms’ tolerance of R&D spillover
which plays a key role in their R&D investment mount and technology efficiency. I
prove that a public firm is more likely to share its R&D fruit and its higher R&D invest-
ment is accompanied by lower efficiency.
Overall, macroeconomy on firm survival and ownership structure on firm innovation activities are channels to understand Chinese economy reform. Because conditions in China were similar in many ways to other transition economies, these results
provide important information about the process of economic transformation more
generally.On taxes, labour market distortions and product market imperfectionsBokan, Nikolahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/30532019-03-29T15:53:29Z2010-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis aims to provide new and useful insights into the effects that various
tax, labour and product market reforms have on the overall economic performance.
Additionally, it aims also to provide insights about the optimal monetary
and fiscal policy behaviour within the economy characterized with various real
labour market frictions.
We analyze the benefits of tax reforms and their effectiveness relative to product
or other labour market reforms. A general equilibrium model with imperfect
competition, wage bargaining and different forms of tax distortions is applied in
order to analyze these issues. We find that structural reforms imply short run costs
but long run gains; that the long run gains outweigh the short run costs; and that
the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. We also find that
the effectiveness of various reform instruments depends on the policy maker's ultimate
objective. More precisely, tax reforms are more effective for welfare gains,
but market liberalization is more valuable for generating employment.
In order to advance our understanding of the tax and product market reform
processes, we then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which
incorporates search-matching frictions, costly ring and endogenous job destruction
decisions, as well as a distortionary progressive wage and a at payroll tax.
We confirm the negative effects of marginal tax distortions on the overall economic
performance. We also find a positive effect of an increase in the wage tax progressivity
and product market liberalization on employment, output and consumption.
Following a positive technology shock, the volatility of employment, output and
consumption turns out to be lower in the reformed economy, whereas the impact
effect on inflation is more pronounced. Following a positive government spending
shock the volatility of employment, output and consumption is again lower in the
reformed economy, but the inflation response is stronger over the whole adjustment
path. We also find detrimental effects on employment and output of a tax reform
which keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged by partially offsetting a decrease
in the payroll tax by an increase in the wage tax rate. If this reform is anticipated
one period in advance the negative effects remain all over the transition path.
We investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policy implication of the
New-Keynesian setup enriched with search-matching frictions. We show that the optimal policy features deviation from strict price stability, and that the Ramsey
planner uses both inflation and taxes in order to fully exploit the benefits of the
productivity increase following a positive productivity shock. We also find that the
optimal tax rate and government liabilities inherit the time series properties of the
underlying shocks. Moreover, we identify a certain degree of overshooting in inflation and tax rates following a positive productivity shock, and a certain degree
of undershooting following a positive government spending shock as a consequence
of the assumed commitment of policy maker.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZBokan, NikolaThis thesis aims to provide new and useful insights into the effects that various
tax, labour and product market reforms have on the overall economic performance.
Additionally, it aims also to provide insights about the optimal monetary
and fiscal policy behaviour within the economy characterized with various real
labour market frictions.
We analyze the benefits of tax reforms and their effectiveness relative to product
or other labour market reforms. A general equilibrium model with imperfect
competition, wage bargaining and different forms of tax distortions is applied in
order to analyze these issues. We find that structural reforms imply short run costs
but long run gains; that the long run gains outweigh the short run costs; and that
the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. We also find that
the effectiveness of various reform instruments depends on the policy maker's ultimate
objective. More precisely, tax reforms are more effective for welfare gains,
but market liberalization is more valuable for generating employment.
In order to advance our understanding of the tax and product market reform
processes, we then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which
incorporates search-matching frictions, costly ring and endogenous job destruction
decisions, as well as a distortionary progressive wage and a at payroll tax.
We confirm the negative effects of marginal tax distortions on the overall economic
performance. We also find a positive effect of an increase in the wage tax progressivity
and product market liberalization on employment, output and consumption.
Following a positive technology shock, the volatility of employment, output and
consumption turns out to be lower in the reformed economy, whereas the impact
effect on inflation is more pronounced. Following a positive government spending
shock the volatility of employment, output and consumption is again lower in the
reformed economy, but the inflation response is stronger over the whole adjustment
path. We also find detrimental effects on employment and output of a tax reform
which keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged by partially offsetting a decrease
in the payroll tax by an increase in the wage tax rate. If this reform is anticipated
one period in advance the negative effects remain all over the transition path.
We investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policy implication of the
New-Keynesian setup enriched with search-matching frictions. We show that the optimal policy features deviation from strict price stability, and that the Ramsey
planner uses both inflation and taxes in order to fully exploit the benefits of the
productivity increase following a positive productivity shock. We also find that the
optimal tax rate and government liabilities inherit the time series properties of the
underlying shocks. Moreover, we identify a certain degree of overshooting in inflation and tax rates following a positive productivity shock, and a certain degree
of undershooting following a positive government spending shock as a consequence
of the assumed commitment of policy maker.An economic and business strategy analysis of joint ventures between Greek enterprises and enterprises in the Balkan countries and Russia : from the Greek parent company perspectiveIoannis-Dionysios, Salavrakoshttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/29632019-03-29T15:50:01Z1997-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis analyses joint ventures which have been established
between Greek enterprises and enterprises from Albania, Bulgaria, Romania
and Russia. An international joint venture (IJV) is an enterprise established
between two or more companies, one of which exercises its entrepreneurial
activities in a foreign country.
The core set of questions that this thesis addresses consist of motives
for the establishment of joint ventures, partner selection criteria, control and
conflict inside a joint venture, stability and performance. Another issue
addressed is that of the problems which joint venturers face, as identified by
Greek businessmen and academics.
This framework is deployed upon an extensive body of primary source
data gathered in 1994 by field work methods, using an administrated
questionnaire largely within the Greek parent companies. Our research
relates to evidence on 44 Greek enterprises, groups of companies, or
individuals who established joint ventures with Eastern European partners
after 1989. The questionnaire design is based on the notion that the
expansion of the domestic boundaries of the firm abroad, and its decision to
establish an IJV are the outcomes of strategic, financial and country specific
motives.
The key results of the thesis are that successful joint ventures in
Eastern Europe have the following characteristics:
1. Dominant control by the Greek partner over the IJV, when the Eastern
European partner is a bureaucrat.
2. Low perceived conflict as regards intensity and frequency over dimensions
like transfer of knowledge.
3. High stability as measured by the percentage increase in share capital held
by the Greek partner and by resistance to transformation to wholly owned
subsidiary status of the IJV.
4. Good perceived financial performance.
5. Evolution of the IJV such that the Eastern European partner increasingly
takes on a managerial role and becomes attuned to managerial modes of
behaviour.
6. Shared decision making between partners to the IJV beyond the infant
stage.
1997-01-01T00:00:00ZIoannis-Dionysios, SalavrakosThis thesis analyses joint ventures which have been established
between Greek enterprises and enterprises from Albania, Bulgaria, Romania
and Russia. An international joint venture (IJV) is an enterprise established
between two or more companies, one of which exercises its entrepreneurial
activities in a foreign country.
The core set of questions that this thesis addresses consist of motives
for the establishment of joint ventures, partner selection criteria, control and
conflict inside a joint venture, stability and performance. Another issue
addressed is that of the problems which joint venturers face, as identified by
Greek businessmen and academics.
This framework is deployed upon an extensive body of primary source
data gathered in 1994 by field work methods, using an administrated
questionnaire largely within the Greek parent companies. Our research
relates to evidence on 44 Greek enterprises, groups of companies, or
individuals who established joint ventures with Eastern European partners
after 1989. The questionnaire design is based on the notion that the
expansion of the domestic boundaries of the firm abroad, and its decision to
establish an IJV are the outcomes of strategic, financial and country specific
motives.
The key results of the thesis are that successful joint ventures in
Eastern Europe have the following characteristics:
1. Dominant control by the Greek partner over the IJV, when the Eastern
European partner is a bureaucrat.
2. Low perceived conflict as regards intensity and frequency over dimensions
like transfer of knowledge.
3. High stability as measured by the percentage increase in share capital held
by the Greek partner and by resistance to transformation to wholly owned
subsidiary status of the IJV.
4. Good perceived financial performance.
5. Evolution of the IJV such that the Eastern European partner increasingly
takes on a managerial role and becomes attuned to managerial modes of
behaviour.
6. Shared decision making between partners to the IJV beyond the infant
stage.The impact of industrialization on adult mortality in Eastern Scotland, c. 1810-1861Ball, Emmahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/29172019-03-29T15:50:03Z1996-01-01T00:00:00ZThis study investigates the links between economic and demographic variables by
examining the impact of industrialization on adult mortality in eastern Scotland, c. 1810-61.
Using the concept of the urban hierarchy, sixteen parishes in the counties of Angus and
Fife were selected to represent different degrees of industrialization. Patterns of adult
mortality in these parishes between 1810 and 1854 are then examined using data on burials
from the parish registers. The results are checked by comparing them with the results
obtained from an analysis of vital registration data on deaths for the period 1855-61. Thus
overall trends in adult mortality are identified and then disaggregated by age, sex, cause of
death and occupation.
The results show that adult mortality was generally higher in the most industrialized
areas. Furthermore, rates in these parishes generally increased over the period whilst in the
less industrialized areas they fell. Overall most people died from infectious diseases but
deaths from these causes (including tuberculosis) fell over the period. The increase in
mortality appears to be in part due to a rise in deaths from respiratory diseases (especially
amongst textile workers in the main industrial centres) and food- and water-borne illnesses.
This suggests that industrialization had a negative impact on adult mortality rates, causing a
short-term rise in mortality in the early to mid-nineteenth century. This was in part due to
the direct effect industrialization had, with the shift towards textile employment probably
leading to increased mortality from respiratory diseases especially amongst factory
workers. The impact of industrialization also appears to have operated indirectly via the
impetus it gave to urbanization and changes in the spatial distribution of the population that
resulted in worsening sanitary conditions and increased exposure to infection.
1996-01-01T00:00:00ZBall, EmmaThis study investigates the links between economic and demographic variables by
examining the impact of industrialization on adult mortality in eastern Scotland, c. 1810-61.
Using the concept of the urban hierarchy, sixteen parishes in the counties of Angus and
Fife were selected to represent different degrees of industrialization. Patterns of adult
mortality in these parishes between 1810 and 1854 are then examined using data on burials
from the parish registers. The results are checked by comparing them with the results
obtained from an analysis of vital registration data on deaths for the period 1855-61. Thus
overall trends in adult mortality are identified and then disaggregated by age, sex, cause of
death and occupation.
The results show that adult mortality was generally higher in the most industrialized
areas. Furthermore, rates in these parishes generally increased over the period whilst in the
less industrialized areas they fell. Overall most people died from infectious diseases but
deaths from these causes (including tuberculosis) fell over the period. The increase in
mortality appears to be in part due to a rise in deaths from respiratory diseases (especially
amongst textile workers in the main industrial centres) and food- and water-borne illnesses.
This suggests that industrialization had a negative impact on adult mortality rates, causing a
short-term rise in mortality in the early to mid-nineteenth century. This was in part due to
the direct effect industrialization had, with the shift towards textile employment probably
leading to increased mortality from respiratory diseases especially amongst factory
workers. The impact of industrialization also appears to have operated indirectly via the
impetus it gave to urbanization and changes in the spatial distribution of the population that
resulted in worsening sanitary conditions and increased exposure to infection.Measures of solvency in the regulation of the UK life assurance industryGully, Benjamin R.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/28922019-03-29T15:49:45Z1999-01-01T00:00:00ZThe problem of designing appropriate solvency regulations is addressed with respect
to the U. K. life assurance industry using various theoretical and methodological
techniques. These alternative approaches to the measurement of insurer solvency
are explored in order to provide a framework for assessing regulations. Reviews of
the current insurance regulatory environment as well as an extensive statistical and
economic analysis of the life assurance industry provide a practical backdrop to
subsequent model building.
Building on these reviews, a 'Monte-Carlo' simulation model of an insurer portfolio
is constructed to demonstrate additional considerations relevant to solvency
regulation. The hypothetical insurance company is assumed to maximise the
expected utility of 'ultimate surplus', which is taken as an indicator of end-of-period
wealth. Five asset classes are used and liabilities are assumed fixed. The simulated
run-off performance of the portfolio is evaluated in terms of the probability of
insolvency demonstrating a 'U' shaped relationship between the risk preference of
the insurer and the insolvency probability.
Implications for the design of regulatory constraints are also assessed with respect to
the simulations. In particular, the contrast between ex ante and ex post measures of
insurer solvency are highlighted with the conclusion taken that current regulations
might gain further insight into the underlying solvency performance of insurance
companies if they were to use ex ante solvency measures. This subsequent policy
prescription is qualified by two factors: first, that the value of simulations and
forecasting as an ex ante measure of performance is only as good as the models used
to forecast ex ante; and second, that any proposed regulatory shift must be assessed
within a cost-benefit analysis. Overall, the simulation analysis suggests that current
regulations provide an incomplete picture of the solvency performance of the U. K.
life assurance industry.
1999-01-01T00:00:00ZGully, Benjamin R.The problem of designing appropriate solvency regulations is addressed with respect
to the U. K. life assurance industry using various theoretical and methodological
techniques. These alternative approaches to the measurement of insurer solvency
are explored in order to provide a framework for assessing regulations. Reviews of
the current insurance regulatory environment as well as an extensive statistical and
economic analysis of the life assurance industry provide a practical backdrop to
subsequent model building.
Building on these reviews, a 'Monte-Carlo' simulation model of an insurer portfolio
is constructed to demonstrate additional considerations relevant to solvency
regulation. The hypothetical insurance company is assumed to maximise the
expected utility of 'ultimate surplus', which is taken as an indicator of end-of-period
wealth. Five asset classes are used and liabilities are assumed fixed. The simulated
run-off performance of the portfolio is evaluated in terms of the probability of
insolvency demonstrating a 'U' shaped relationship between the risk preference of
the insurer and the insolvency probability.
Implications for the design of regulatory constraints are also assessed with respect to
the simulations. In particular, the contrast between ex ante and ex post measures of
insurer solvency are highlighted with the conclusion taken that current regulations
might gain further insight into the underlying solvency performance of insurance
companies if they were to use ex ante solvency measures. This subsequent policy
prescription is qualified by two factors: first, that the value of simulations and
forecasting as an ex ante measure of performance is only as good as the models used
to forecast ex ante; and second, that any proposed regulatory shift must be assessed
within a cost-benefit analysis. Overall, the simulation analysis suggests that current
regulations provide an incomplete picture of the solvency performance of the U. K.
life assurance industry.The determinants of competitive advantage: a critical appraisalAllan, Andrew C.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/28872019-03-29T15:53:28Z1991-01-01T00:00:00ZThe thesis deals with the means whereby a firm can gain
a competitive advantage over its rivals. After considering
how this issue is dealt with in the management literature,
the thesis focuses on two possible routes to competitive
advantage. The first is largely internal to the firm, and
concerns the design of managerial contracts to provide
managers with the incentives to act in the best interests of
shareholders. The second route is external, involving
strategic market moves in relation to rival firms. These two
possible routes to competitive advantage are appraised in
light of recent theoretical developments in 1principal-agent
analysis the internal route, and the new industrial
economics the external route. The final section of the
thesis is empirical and deals with the share price
experience of the top 100 U. K. companies since 1970. The
econometric notion of cointegration is employed to test for
the existence of sustained competitive advantage. The
tentative conclusion reached is that while companies may be
able to achieve a sustained competitive advantage, the
compensation contracts employed have not been a successful
means of obtaining such advantage. The suggestion is that
external routes to competitive advantage might be more
effective.
1991-01-01T00:00:00ZAllan, Andrew C.The thesis deals with the means whereby a firm can gain
a competitive advantage over its rivals. After considering
how this issue is dealt with in the management literature,
the thesis focuses on two possible routes to competitive
advantage. The first is largely internal to the firm, and
concerns the design of managerial contracts to provide
managers with the incentives to act in the best interests of
shareholders. The second route is external, involving
strategic market moves in relation to rival firms. These two
possible routes to competitive advantage are appraised in
light of recent theoretical developments in 1principal-agent
analysis the internal route, and the new industrial
economics the external route. The final section of the
thesis is empirical and deals with the share price
experience of the top 100 U. K. companies since 1970. The
econometric notion of cointegration is employed to test for
the existence of sustained competitive advantage. The
tentative conclusion reached is that while companies may be
able to achieve a sustained competitive advantage, the
compensation contracts employed have not been a successful
means of obtaining such advantage. The suggestion is that
external routes to competitive advantage might be more
effective.The political economy of discrimination and underdevelopment in Rhodesia, with special reference to African workers, 1940-73Clarke, Duncan Godfreyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/28122019-07-01T10:16:44Z1975-01-01T00:00:00ZThe study
begins by
examining
the orthodox theory
of
discrimination as a possible model with which
to
evaluate
the
socio-economic
basis
of race relations
in Rhodesia.
It is argued that it is inadequate because the theory is not
grounded
in the
settler-colonial system,
its historiography
and
the peripheral capitalist social
formation in Rhodesia
in which a complex articulation
between
modes of production
is found.
A critique
is then undertaken of the principal
theories
hitherto used to
explain the course of Rhodesian economic
development
- namely, dualism and
those termed neo-marxist.
It is
argued
that Barber's modification of
the dualistic model
of W. A. Lewis is deficient
particularly
because of the
absence of a
theory of
'primitive
accumulation' and also
the lack
of an analysis of the political economy of the
'labour transfer', the basis
of peripheral capitalist
development. Arrighi's 'neo-maraist'
analysis of Rhodesian
development is
also criticized for its inadequate theory
of
'primitive
accumulation' and the lack
of attention paid
to
the labour mobilization process. An analytical alternative
is proposed,
based
on an explanation of
'primitive
capital
accumulation' and the
specific
forms of-labour utilization
found in Rhodesia in
association with particular modes of
production existent
during the
period under review. An
attempt is
made to
specify
these
modes and the
social
relations related thereto.
The labour
structures
found in the
economic system are
then
examined
in the
context of the income distribution
pattern, the
class structure of the
social
formation
and
the
primary
'dynamic'
of Rhodesian postwar
development
- industrialization. It is
suggested that changes
in labour
policy
in various modes of production were essentially
concerned with ensuring
the maintenance of a system of cheap
labour
whereby employers acquired
labour-power below
the cost of its
own reproduction. The development of
peripheral capitalism under conditions of settler colonialism
required changes to labour policy. These modifications
left the basic
structures of
the
socio-economic system
intact,
although
they
gave rise to
substantial pressures
for change,
e. g. from unions and African nationalism.
The State has
been particularly significant
in
containing
these
socio-economic and political pressures, especially
in the field of
labour
policy.
An
attempt
is
made to identify the
changes
in labour
mobilization that have taken
place,
to
assess
their impact
on
the nature of discrimination
and underdevelopment, and to
point out some of the
more
important features of
the class
formation process that have resulted from the development
of capitalism
in Rhodesia.
1975-01-01T00:00:00ZClarke, Duncan GodfreyThe study
begins by
examining
the orthodox theory
of
discrimination as a possible model with which
to
evaluate
the
socio-economic
basis
of race relations
in Rhodesia.
It is argued that it is inadequate because the theory is not
grounded
in the
settler-colonial system,
its historiography
and
the peripheral capitalist social
formation in Rhodesia
in which a complex articulation
between
modes of production
is found.
A critique
is then undertaken of the principal
theories
hitherto used to
explain the course of Rhodesian economic
development
- namely, dualism and
those termed neo-marxist.
It is
argued
that Barber's modification of
the dualistic model
of W. A. Lewis is deficient
particularly
because of the
absence of a
theory of
'primitive
accumulation' and also
the lack
of an analysis of the political economy of the
'labour transfer', the basis
of peripheral capitalist
development. Arrighi's 'neo-maraist'
analysis of Rhodesian
development is
also criticized for its inadequate theory
of
'primitive
accumulation' and the lack
of attention paid
to
the labour mobilization process. An analytical alternative
is proposed,
based
on an explanation of
'primitive
capital
accumulation' and the
specific
forms of-labour utilization
found in Rhodesia in
association with particular modes of
production existent
during the
period under review. An
attempt is
made to
specify
these
modes and the
social
relations related thereto.
The labour
structures
found in the
economic system are
then
examined
in the
context of the income distribution
pattern, the
class structure of the
social
formation
and
the
primary
'dynamic'
of Rhodesian postwar
development
- industrialization. It is
suggested that changes
in labour
policy
in various modes of production were essentially
concerned with ensuring
the maintenance of a system of cheap
labour
whereby employers acquired
labour-power below
the cost of its
own reproduction. The development of
peripheral capitalism under conditions of settler colonialism
required changes to labour policy. These modifications
left the basic
structures of
the
socio-economic system
intact,
although
they
gave rise to
substantial pressures
for change,
e. g. from unions and African nationalism.
The State has
been particularly significant
in
containing
these
socio-economic and political pressures, especially
in the field of
labour
policy.
An
attempt
is
made to identify the
changes
in labour
mobilization that have taken
place,
to
assess
their impact
on
the nature of discrimination
and underdevelopment, and to
point out some of the
more
important features of
the class
formation process that have resulted from the development
of capitalism
in Rhodesia.Foreign aid, economic development and the indebtedness problem, with special reference to the SudanAbuel Nour, Abuel Gasim Mohamedhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/26302019-07-01T10:16:06Z1981-01-01T00:00:00ZIn the task of promoting both economic growth and development
of the developing countries, both theory and development experience
suggest that international co-operation in a broad sense has a vital
role to play. For most developing countries, foreign trade is, and is
likely to remain, the most important ingredient of such co-operation,
although in the absence of a so-called new international economic
order, its benefits may be smaller than most developing countries
think to be equitable. But despite the overwhelming importance of
trade, resource transfers from the more advanced and rich countries
have a significant and in many cases, a decisive role as well to play
in augmenting economic development. Resource transfers include
foreign investment, financial aid and technical assistance.
The present study principally examines the role of foreign aid -
including both financial and technical assistance - in economic
development with particular reference to the Sudan. This focus on aid
is not intended to under-rate the significance of other forms of
co-operation between advanced and developing countries in promoting
the latter's development. This study falls into three main parts which
together cover most of the principal issues related to foreign aid, and
examine the situation in the Sudan.
Part I is a critical review of the theoretical literature on aid
and of the controversies that have arisen in the light of the different
empirical investigations which have been attempted to establish its
impact upon recipient economies. It also examines the rationale
behind the provision of aid and the requirements which are to be
satisfied if it is to be used effectively.
Part II is an attempt to apply the conceptual framework of the
previous part to an elucidation of the role of aid in the Sudan's economic
development. It begins with a brief description of the structure of the
Sudanese economy and a survey of the trends in available resources.
In the light of this analysis, a number of key issues are examined:
in particular the source, composition and end-use of aid funds; the
significance of Arab capital; the structure of aid management, and the
role of technical assistance in supplementing domestic skills. Apart
from these largely qualitative appraisals, the study also attempts to
apply Weisskopf's behavioural model to evaluate the contribution of
foreign aid to the Sudanese economy. Part II includes an examination
of the limitations of such econometric studies.
Part III examines the so-called debt problem of developing
countries and its extent. Since foreign aid is not wholly provided in
grant form, its inflow into developing countries has been accompanied
by a growing debt. Part III contains a critical appraisal of the
indebtedness issue of developing countries in the light of recent debates.
Its prime concern is, however, to identify the causes and to
demonstrate the immediate as well as the long-term implications of
debt difficulties. This is followed by a scrutiny of the debt position
of the Sudan, using for this purpose both published and unpublished
data.
Finally, a concluding section summarizes some of the most
important propositions arrived at in the dissertation.
1981-01-01T00:00:00ZAbuel Nour, Abuel Gasim MohamedIn the task of promoting both economic growth and development
of the developing countries, both theory and development experience
suggest that international co-operation in a broad sense has a vital
role to play. For most developing countries, foreign trade is, and is
likely to remain, the most important ingredient of such co-operation,
although in the absence of a so-called new international economic
order, its benefits may be smaller than most developing countries
think to be equitable. But despite the overwhelming importance of
trade, resource transfers from the more advanced and rich countries
have a significant and in many cases, a decisive role as well to play
in augmenting economic development. Resource transfers include
foreign investment, financial aid and technical assistance.
The present study principally examines the role of foreign aid -
including both financial and technical assistance - in economic
development with particular reference to the Sudan. This focus on aid
is not intended to under-rate the significance of other forms of
co-operation between advanced and developing countries in promoting
the latter's development. This study falls into three main parts which
together cover most of the principal issues related to foreign aid, and
examine the situation in the Sudan.
Part I is a critical review of the theoretical literature on aid
and of the controversies that have arisen in the light of the different
empirical investigations which have been attempted to establish its
impact upon recipient economies. It also examines the rationale
behind the provision of aid and the requirements which are to be
satisfied if it is to be used effectively.
Part II is an attempt to apply the conceptual framework of the
previous part to an elucidation of the role of aid in the Sudan's economic
development. It begins with a brief description of the structure of the
Sudanese economy and a survey of the trends in available resources.
In the light of this analysis, a number of key issues are examined:
in particular the source, composition and end-use of aid funds; the
significance of Arab capital; the structure of aid management, and the
role of technical assistance in supplementing domestic skills. Apart
from these largely qualitative appraisals, the study also attempts to
apply Weisskopf's behavioural model to evaluate the contribution of
foreign aid to the Sudanese economy. Part II includes an examination
of the limitations of such econometric studies.
Part III examines the so-called debt problem of developing
countries and its extent. Since foreign aid is not wholly provided in
grant form, its inflow into developing countries has been accompanied
by a growing debt. Part III contains a critical appraisal of the
indebtedness issue of developing countries in the light of recent debates.
Its prime concern is, however, to identify the causes and to
demonstrate the immediate as well as the long-term implications of
debt difficulties. This is followed by a scrutiny of the debt position
of the Sudan, using for this purpose both published and unpublished
data.
Finally, a concluding section summarizes some of the most
important propositions arrived at in the dissertation.Sequential action and beliefs under partially observable DSGE environmentsKim, Seong-Hoonhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/25992023-04-18T09:45:15Z2012-01-01T00:00:00ZThis paper introduces a classification of DSGEs from a Markovian perspective, and positions the class of POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) to the center of a generalization of linear rational expectations models. The analysis of the POMDP class builds on the previous development in dynamic controls for linear system, and derives a solution algorithm by formulating an equilibrium as a fixed point of an operator that maps what we observe into what we believe.
2012-01-01T00:00:00ZKim, Seong-HoonThis paper introduces a classification of DSGEs from a Markovian perspective, and positions the class of POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) to the center of a generalization of linear rational expectations models. The analysis of the POMDP class builds on the previous development in dynamic controls for linear system, and derives a solution algorithm by formulating an equilibrium as a fixed point of an operator that maps what we observe into what we believe.Calibration of the chaotic interest rate modelTsujimoto, Tsunehirohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/25682019-03-29T15:50:02Z2010-11-30T00:00:00ZIn this thesis we establish a relationship between the Potential Approach to interest rates and the Market Models. This relationship allows us to derive the dynamics of forward LIBOR rates and forward swap rates by modelling the state price density. It means that we are able to secure the arbitrage-free condition and positive interest rate feature when we model the volatility drifts of those dynamics.
On the other hand, we develop the Potential Approach, particularly the Hughston-Rafailidis Chaotic Interest Rate Model. The early argument enables us to infer that the Chaos Models belong to the Stochastic Volatility Market Models.
In particular, we propose One-variable Chaos Models with the application of exponential polynomials. This maintains the generality of the Chaos Models and performs well for yield curves comparing with the Nelson-Siegel Form and the Svensson Form. Moreover, we calibrate the One-variable Chaos Model to European Caplets and European Swaptions. We show that the One-variable Chaos Models can reproduce the humped shape of the term structure of caplet volatility and also the volatility smile/skew curve. The calibration errors are small compared with the Lognormal Forward LIBOR Model, the SABR Model, traditional Short Rate Models, and other models under the Potential Approach. After the calibration, we introduce some new interest rate models under the Potential Approach. In particular, we suggest a new framework where the volatility drifts can be indirectly modelled from the short rate via the state price density.
2010-11-30T00:00:00ZTsujimoto, TsunehiroIn this thesis we establish a relationship between the Potential Approach to interest rates and the Market Models. This relationship allows us to derive the dynamics of forward LIBOR rates and forward swap rates by modelling the state price density. It means that we are able to secure the arbitrage-free condition and positive interest rate feature when we model the volatility drifts of those dynamics.
On the other hand, we develop the Potential Approach, particularly the Hughston-Rafailidis Chaotic Interest Rate Model. The early argument enables us to infer that the Chaos Models belong to the Stochastic Volatility Market Models.
In particular, we propose One-variable Chaos Models with the application of exponential polynomials. This maintains the generality of the Chaos Models and performs well for yield curves comparing with the Nelson-Siegel Form and the Svensson Form. Moreover, we calibrate the One-variable Chaos Model to European Caplets and European Swaptions. We show that the One-variable Chaos Models can reproduce the humped shape of the term structure of caplet volatility and also the volatility smile/skew curve. The calibration errors are small compared with the Lognormal Forward LIBOR Model, the SABR Model, traditional Short Rate Models, and other models under the Potential Approach. After the calibration, we introduce some new interest rate models under the Potential Approach. In particular, we suggest a new framework where the volatility drifts can be indirectly modelled from the short rate via the state price density.Essays on responsible investment, research output analyses and investment performance evaluationHoepner, Andreas G. F.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/21302016-09-02T13:17:57Z2010-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis includes four essays, of which each comprises two original contributions. Based
on this thesis’ eight contributions, we add knowledge or understanding to the literatures on
responsible investment, research output analyses and investment performance evaluation.
First, we develop the first generic, reliable approach to benchmark research area output (e.g.
journal articles or books), which we expect to appeal to governments’ increasing interest in
monitoring their research funding investments. Second, we apply this approach to the research
area of responsible investment, which is currently backed by an about $ 7 trillion industry. We
find that the (quality weighted) quantity of responsible investment’s research output is
statistically significantly under-proportional compared with peer research areas. One of
several explanations for this result lies in the intransparency of the current responsible
investment literature. Third, we develop an approach to research synthesis, which improves a
research area’s transparency without experiencing many weaknesses of conventional literature
reviews. We title this approach Influential Literature Analysis (ILA). Fourth, we apply ILA to
the relatively intransparent responsible investment literature. One of our many findings is that
responsible assets with their ceteris paribus under-proportional total risk might appear
artificially unattractive when assessed by the most common investment performance measure,
the Sharpe ratio, which is biased in favour of high risk assets due to its currently unsolved
negative excess return problem. Fifth, we develop a generic, reliable and robust solution to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, which investors can customise according to their specific
increasing incremental disutility of risk functions. Six, we generalise our solution to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, which allows us to solve the negative (excess) return problems
of over twenty other investment performance measures. Seventh, we develop independent,
statistically sophisticated tests of the sufficiency and quality of suggested solutions to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, since all existing tests a-priori assume the superiority of a
specific solution. In contrast, our tests are only based on the Sharpe ratio itself and two basic
axioms of investment theory. Hence, they are conceptually unrelated to our solutions. Eighth,
we apply these tests using two different data samples to all existing solutions to the negative
Sharpe ratio problem. We find that investors are best advised to use our solutions, the H⁶-, H⁷- or H⁸-measure, in their evaluation of investment performance from a Sharpe ratio like
perspective.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZHoepner, Andreas G. F.This thesis includes four essays, of which each comprises two original contributions. Based
on this thesis’ eight contributions, we add knowledge or understanding to the literatures on
responsible investment, research output analyses and investment performance evaluation.
First, we develop the first generic, reliable approach to benchmark research area output (e.g.
journal articles or books), which we expect to appeal to governments’ increasing interest in
monitoring their research funding investments. Second, we apply this approach to the research
area of responsible investment, which is currently backed by an about $ 7 trillion industry. We
find that the (quality weighted) quantity of responsible investment’s research output is
statistically significantly under-proportional compared with peer research areas. One of
several explanations for this result lies in the intransparency of the current responsible
investment literature. Third, we develop an approach to research synthesis, which improves a
research area’s transparency without experiencing many weaknesses of conventional literature
reviews. We title this approach Influential Literature Analysis (ILA). Fourth, we apply ILA to
the relatively intransparent responsible investment literature. One of our many findings is that
responsible assets with their ceteris paribus under-proportional total risk might appear
artificially unattractive when assessed by the most common investment performance measure,
the Sharpe ratio, which is biased in favour of high risk assets due to its currently unsolved
negative excess return problem. Fifth, we develop a generic, reliable and robust solution to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, which investors can customise according to their specific
increasing incremental disutility of risk functions. Six, we generalise our solution to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, which allows us to solve the negative (excess) return problems
of over twenty other investment performance measures. Seventh, we develop independent,
statistically sophisticated tests of the sufficiency and quality of suggested solutions to the
negative Sharpe ratio problem, since all existing tests a-priori assume the superiority of a
specific solution. In contrast, our tests are only based on the Sharpe ratio itself and two basic
axioms of investment theory. Hence, they are conceptually unrelated to our solutions. Eighth,
we apply these tests using two different data samples to all existing solutions to the negative
Sharpe ratio problem. We find that investors are best advised to use our solutions, the H⁶-, H⁷- or H⁸-measure, in their evaluation of investment performance from a Sharpe ratio like
perspective.Three empirical essays on determinants of industry and investment location patterns in the context of economic transition and regional integration : the evidence from Central and Eastern European countriesŠerić, Adnanhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/20982019-03-29T15:49:46Z2011-06-01T00:00:00ZThe factor determinants of industry and investment location patterns in transition
economies can be expected to differ from those frequently observed in developed
countries. Historically, centrally planned economies have suffered from inefficient
industrial policies that are generally assumed to have had distortive effects on spatial
location of industry. The process of economic transition and regional integration that
followed the demise of socialist structures is assumed to have subsequently affected the
geographical distribution of economic activities within and between countries of the
region. Given the above this thesis capitalises on the quasi-natural experiment setting to
further explore industry and investment location decisions in transition economies.
In particular, the research presented here follows three main objectives. First, it intends to
provide a comprehensive picture of changes in industry location patterns over time.
Second, it aims to contribute to the debate on factor determinants of industry location at
various levels of spatial aggregation. Third, it seeks to explore location determinants of
foreign direct investors in particular, given their pivotal role for economic development
of transition economies. In all instances, the research is geared towards a better
understanding of the role of institutional factors, such as reforms and policies, in affecting
distribution of economic activity across space. Thus, the work conducted qualifies as a
further contribution to the analysis of structural changes that have affected the economies
under examination. In broad terms, the findings presented here point towards significant
changes in spatial location patterns of industry and investments that are leading to
increased polarisation of economic landscape over time. Nonetheless, we find evidence
that certain institutional factors qualify as viable policy levers, thereby providing ample
scope for policy makers to impact existing location patterns of economic activity.
2011-06-01T00:00:00ZŠerić, AdnanThe factor determinants of industry and investment location patterns in transition
economies can be expected to differ from those frequently observed in developed
countries. Historically, centrally planned economies have suffered from inefficient
industrial policies that are generally assumed to have had distortive effects on spatial
location of industry. The process of economic transition and regional integration that
followed the demise of socialist structures is assumed to have subsequently affected the
geographical distribution of economic activities within and between countries of the
region. Given the above this thesis capitalises on the quasi-natural experiment setting to
further explore industry and investment location decisions in transition economies.
In particular, the research presented here follows three main objectives. First, it intends to
provide a comprehensive picture of changes in industry location patterns over time.
Second, it aims to contribute to the debate on factor determinants of industry location at
various levels of spatial aggregation. Third, it seeks to explore location determinants of
foreign direct investors in particular, given their pivotal role for economic development
of transition economies. In all instances, the research is geared towards a better
understanding of the role of institutional factors, such as reforms and policies, in affecting
distribution of economic activity across space. Thus, the work conducted qualifies as a
further contribution to the analysis of structural changes that have affected the economies
under examination. In broad terms, the findings presented here point towards significant
changes in spatial location patterns of industry and investments that are leading to
increased polarisation of economic landscape over time. Nonetheless, we find evidence
that certain institutional factors qualify as viable policy levers, thereby providing ample
scope for policy makers to impact existing location patterns of economic activity.Empirical market microstructure of the FTSEurofirst index futuresFaciane, Kirbyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/19752019-09-30T09:08:13Z2010-05-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is among the first market microstructure studies of an index futures market
with designated market makers in the academic literature. The purpose of this thesis is to
investigate intraday patterns of key variables, the relative size of the components of the quoted
bid-ask spread, and the order decisions of uninformed traders, in a continuous dealer market for
index futures with market makers. Overall, our findings aim to contribute to a better
understanding of the roles of market makers and public customers in price formation. Intraday
patterns of financial market variables such as trade price, volume, trade size, quoted spreads,
depth, and volatility separately for designated market makers and public customers are
examined.
The lack of relevant and appropriate data in futures markets, as evidenced by Hasbrouck
(2003) and Kurov (2005), has inhibited the growth of market microstructure in futures markets.
Individual orders, quotes, trader identification, and transactions from June 2003 to December
2004, for FTSEurofirst 80 and 100 index futures are used in the study. Inclusion of the parties to
order execution distinguishes this data set from most other futures microstructure sources. As
this thesis is the first known academic study of the extant market microstructure of the
FTSEurofirst index futures, the institutional aspects of the trading process for the FTSEurofirst
index futures are also explored. An alternative method for estimating three cost components as a
proportion of the bid-ask spread is developed. A framework is developed for the order decision
process of an uninformed trader for the first time in a futures market with market makers. The
results of this thesis may have implications for other financial markets and the field of market
microstructure.
2010-05-01T00:00:00ZFaciane, KirbyThis thesis is among the first market microstructure studies of an index futures market
with designated market makers in the academic literature. The purpose of this thesis is to
investigate intraday patterns of key variables, the relative size of the components of the quoted
bid-ask spread, and the order decisions of uninformed traders, in a continuous dealer market for
index futures with market makers. Overall, our findings aim to contribute to a better
understanding of the roles of market makers and public customers in price formation. Intraday
patterns of financial market variables such as trade price, volume, trade size, quoted spreads,
depth, and volatility separately for designated market makers and public customers are
examined.
The lack of relevant and appropriate data in futures markets, as evidenced by Hasbrouck
(2003) and Kurov (2005), has inhibited the growth of market microstructure in futures markets.
Individual orders, quotes, trader identification, and transactions from June 2003 to December
2004, for FTSEurofirst 80 and 100 index futures are used in the study. Inclusion of the parties to
order execution distinguishes this data set from most other futures microstructure sources. As
this thesis is the first known academic study of the extant market microstructure of the
FTSEurofirst index futures, the institutional aspects of the trading process for the FTSEurofirst
index futures are also explored. An alternative method for estimating three cost components as a
proportion of the bid-ask spread is developed. A framework is developed for the order decision
process of an uninformed trader for the first time in a futures market with market makers. The
results of this thesis may have implications for other financial markets and the field of market
microstructure.Lower inflation : ways and incentives for central banksGeissler, Johanneshttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/17192019-03-29T15:49:48Z2011-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is a technical inquiry into remedies for high inflation. In its center there
is the usual tradeoff between inflation aversion on the one hand and some benefit
from inflation via Phillips curve effects on the other hand. Most remarkable and
pioneering work for us is the famous Barro-Gordon model - see (Barro & Gordon
1983a) respectively (Barro & Gordon 1983b). Parts of this model form the basis of
our work here. Though being well known the discretionary equilibrium is suboptimal
the question arises how to overcome this. We will introduce four different models,
each of them giving a different perspective and way of thinking. Each model shows
a (sometimes slightly) different way a central banker might deliver lower inflation
than the one shot Barro-Gordon game at a first glance would suggest. To cut a long
story short we provide a number of reasons for believing that the purely discretionary
equilibrium may be rarely observed in real life.
Further the thesis provides new insights for derivative pricing theories. In particular, the potential role of financial markets and instruments will be a major focus.
We investigate how such instruments can be used for monetary policy. On the contrary these financial securities have strong influence on the behavior of the central
bank. Taking this into account in chapters 3 and 4 we come up with a new method of
pricing inflation linked derivatives. The latter to the best of our knowledge has never been done before - (Persson, Persson & Svenson 2006), as one of very view economic
works taking into account financial markets, is purely focused on the social planer's
problem.
A purely game theoretic approach is done in chapter 2 to change the original
Barro-Gordon. Here we deviate from a purely rational and purely one period wise
thinking. Finally in chapter 5 we model an asymmetric information situation where
the central banker faces a trade off between his current objective on the one hand
and benefit arising from not perfectly informed agents on the other hand. In that
sense the central bank is also concerned about its reputation.
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZGeissler, JohannesThis thesis is a technical inquiry into remedies for high inflation. In its center there
is the usual tradeoff between inflation aversion on the one hand and some benefit
from inflation via Phillips curve effects on the other hand. Most remarkable and
pioneering work for us is the famous Barro-Gordon model - see (Barro & Gordon
1983a) respectively (Barro & Gordon 1983b). Parts of this model form the basis of
our work here. Though being well known the discretionary equilibrium is suboptimal
the question arises how to overcome this. We will introduce four different models,
each of them giving a different perspective and way of thinking. Each model shows
a (sometimes slightly) different way a central banker might deliver lower inflation
than the one shot Barro-Gordon game at a first glance would suggest. To cut a long
story short we provide a number of reasons for believing that the purely discretionary
equilibrium may be rarely observed in real life.
Further the thesis provides new insights for derivative pricing theories. In particular, the potential role of financial markets and instruments will be a major focus.
We investigate how such instruments can be used for monetary policy. On the contrary these financial securities have strong influence on the behavior of the central
bank. Taking this into account in chapters 3 and 4 we come up with a new method of
pricing inflation linked derivatives. The latter to the best of our knowledge has never been done before - (Persson, Persson & Svenson 2006), as one of very view economic
works taking into account financial markets, is purely focused on the social planer's
problem.
A purely game theoretic approach is done in chapter 2 to change the original
Barro-Gordon. Here we deviate from a purely rational and purely one period wise
thinking. Finally in chapter 5 we model an asymmetric information situation where
the central banker faces a trade off between his current objective on the one hand
and benefit arising from not perfectly informed agents on the other hand. In that
sense the central bank is also concerned about its reputation.The economics of trade secrets : evidence from the Economic Espionage ActSearle, Nicola C.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/16322019-07-01T10:18:06Z2010-11-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis reports on the economic analysis of trade secrets via data collected from prosecutions under the U.S. Economic Espionage Act (EEA.) Ratified in 1996, the EEA increases protection for trade secrets by criminalizing the theft of trade secrets. The empirical basis of the thesis is a unique database constructed using EEA prosecutions from 1996 to 2008. A critical and empirical analysis of these cases provides insight into the use of trade secrets.
The increase in the criminal culpability of trade secret theft has important impacts on the use of trade secrets and the incentives for would-be thieves. A statistical analysis of the EEA data suggest that trade secrets are used primarily in manufacturing and construction. A cluster analysis suggests three broad categories of EEA cases based on the type of trade secret and the sector of the owner. A series of illustrative case studies demonstrates these clusters.
A critical analysis of the damages valuations methods in trade secrets cases demonstrates the highly variable estimates of trade secrets. Given the criminal context of EEA cases, these valuation methods play an important role in sentencing and affect the incentives of the owners of trade secrets. The analysis of the lognormal distribution of the observed values is furthered by a statistical analysis of the EEA valuations, which suggests that the methods can result in very different estimates for the same trade secret.
A regression analysis examines the determinants of trade secret intensity at the firm level. This econometric analysis suggests that trade secret intensity is negatively related to firm size. Collectively, this thesis presents an empirical analysis of trade secrets.
2010-11-01T00:00:00ZSearle, Nicola C.This thesis reports on the economic analysis of trade secrets via data collected from prosecutions under the U.S. Economic Espionage Act (EEA.) Ratified in 1996, the EEA increases protection for trade secrets by criminalizing the theft of trade secrets. The empirical basis of the thesis is a unique database constructed using EEA prosecutions from 1996 to 2008. A critical and empirical analysis of these cases provides insight into the use of trade secrets.
The increase in the criminal culpability of trade secret theft has important impacts on the use of trade secrets and the incentives for would-be thieves. A statistical analysis of the EEA data suggest that trade secrets are used primarily in manufacturing and construction. A cluster analysis suggests three broad categories of EEA cases based on the type of trade secret and the sector of the owner. A series of illustrative case studies demonstrates these clusters.
A critical analysis of the damages valuations methods in trade secrets cases demonstrates the highly variable estimates of trade secrets. Given the criminal context of EEA cases, these valuation methods play an important role in sentencing and affect the incentives of the owners of trade secrets. The analysis of the lognormal distribution of the observed values is furthered by a statistical analysis of the EEA valuations, which suggests that the methods can result in very different estimates for the same trade secret.
A regression analysis examines the determinants of trade secret intensity at the firm level. This econometric analysis suggests that trade secret intensity is negatively related to firm size. Collectively, this thesis presents an empirical analysis of trade secrets.Explaining medium run swings in unemployment : shocks, monetary policy and labour market frictionsRannenberg, Ansgarhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/9742019-03-29T15:53:38Z2010-01-01T00:00:00ZThe literature trying to link the increase in unemployment in many western European countries since the middle of the 1970s to an increase in labour market rigidity has
run into a number of problems. In particular, changes in labour market institutions do
not seem to be able to explain the evolution of unemployment across time.
We conclude that a new theory of medium run unemployment swings should explain
the increase in unemployment in many European countries and the lack thereof in the
United States. Furthermore, it should also help to explain the high degree of endogenous
unemployment persistence in the many European countries and findings suggesting a
link between disinflationary monetary policy and subsequent increases in the NAIRU.
To address these issues, we first develop an endogenous growth sticky price model.
We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario
akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinflation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a
Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment
is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. The model also partly explains cross country differences in the unemployment evolution by drawing on differences in the size of the disinflation, the monetary policy
reaction function and wage setting.
We then draw some conclusions about optimal monetary policy in the presence of
endogenous growth and find that optimal policy is substantially less hawkish than in
an identical economy without endogenous growth.
The second model introduces duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed
into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008).
If the central bank responds only to inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold
level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither
interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy
if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment
guarantees determinacy.
Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse
technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZRannenberg, AnsgarThe literature trying to link the increase in unemployment in many western European countries since the middle of the 1970s to an increase in labour market rigidity has
run into a number of problems. In particular, changes in labour market institutions do
not seem to be able to explain the evolution of unemployment across time.
We conclude that a new theory of medium run unemployment swings should explain
the increase in unemployment in many European countries and the lack thereof in the
United States. Furthermore, it should also help to explain the high degree of endogenous
unemployment persistence in the many European countries and findings suggesting a
link between disinflationary monetary policy and subsequent increases in the NAIRU.
To address these issues, we first develop an endogenous growth sticky price model.
We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario
akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinflation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a
Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment
is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. The model also partly explains cross country differences in the unemployment evolution by drawing on differences in the size of the disinflation, the monetary policy
reaction function and wage setting.
We then draw some conclusions about optimal monetary policy in the presence of
endogenous growth and find that optimal policy is substantially less hawkish than in
an identical economy without endogenous growth.
The second model introduces duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed
into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008).
If the central bank responds only to inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold
level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither
interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy
if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment
guarantees determinacy.
Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse
technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.Determinacy and learning stability of economic policy in asymmetric monetary union modelsBoumediene, Farid Jimmyhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/9722019-03-29T15:53:33Z2010-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous
or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from
the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing
asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases.
We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more
likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest
rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more
likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary
policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy
and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization
of output and inflation.
A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a
shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and
E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both
fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union
output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy.
A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the
Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when
monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce
determinacy.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZBoumediene, Farid JimmyThis thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous
or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from
the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing
asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases.
We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more
likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest
rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more
likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary
policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy
and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization
of output and inflation.
A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a
shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and
E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both
fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union
output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy.
A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the
Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when
monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce
determinacy.Four essays in dynamic macroeconomicsSun, Qihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/9412019-03-29T15:49:46Z2010-06-25T00:00:00ZThe dissertation contains essays concerning the linkages between macroeconomy and financial market or the conduct of monetary policy via DSGE modelling. The dissertation contributes to the questions of fitting macroeconomic models to the data, and so contributes to our understanding of the driving forces of fluctuations in macroeconomic and financial variables.
Chapter one offers an introduction to my thesis and outlines in detail the main results and methodologies.
In Chapter two I introduce a statistical measure for model evaluation and selection based on the full information of sample second moments in data. A model is said to outperform its counterpart if it produces closer similarity in simulated data variance-covariance matrix when compared with the actual data. The "distance method" is generally feasible and simple to conduct. A flexible price two-sector open economy model is studied to match the observed puzzles of international finance data. The statistical distance approach favours a model with dominant role played by the expectational errors in foreign exchange market which breaks the international interest rate parity.
Chapter three applies the distance approach to a New Keynesian model augmented with habit formation and backward-looking component of pricing behaviour. A macro-finance model of yield curve is developed to showcase the dynamics of implied forward yields. This exercise, with the distance approach, reiterate the inability of macro model in explaining yield curve dynamics. The method also reveals remarkable interconnection between real quantity and bond yield slope.
In Chapter four I study a general equilibrium business cycle model with sticky prices and labour market rigidities. With costly matching on labour market, output responds in a hump-shaped and persistent manner to monetary shocks and the resulting Phillips curve seems to radically change the scope for monetary policy because (i) there are speed limit effects for policy and (ii) there is a cost channel for monetary policy. Labour reforms such as in mid-1980s UK can trigger more effective monetary policy. Research on monetary policy shall pay greater attention to output when labour market adjustments are persistent.
Chapter five analyzes the link between money and financial spread, which is oft missed in specification of monetary policy making analysis. When liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for money from the real economy, money may contain information of future output and inflation due to its impact on financial spreads. I use a sign-restriction Bayesian VAR estimation to separate the liquidity provision impact from money market equilibrium. The decomposition exercise shows supply shocks dominate the money-price nexus in the short to medium term. It also uncovers distinctive policy stance of two central banks.
Finally Chapter six concludes, providing a brief summary of the research work as well as a discussion of potential limitations and possible directions for future research.
2010-06-25T00:00:00ZSun, QiThe dissertation contains essays concerning the linkages between macroeconomy and financial market or the conduct of monetary policy via DSGE modelling. The dissertation contributes to the questions of fitting macroeconomic models to the data, and so contributes to our understanding of the driving forces of fluctuations in macroeconomic and financial variables.
Chapter one offers an introduction to my thesis and outlines in detail the main results and methodologies.
In Chapter two I introduce a statistical measure for model evaluation and selection based on the full information of sample second moments in data. A model is said to outperform its counterpart if it produces closer similarity in simulated data variance-covariance matrix when compared with the actual data. The "distance method" is generally feasible and simple to conduct. A flexible price two-sector open economy model is studied to match the observed puzzles of international finance data. The statistical distance approach favours a model with dominant role played by the expectational errors in foreign exchange market which breaks the international interest rate parity.
Chapter three applies the distance approach to a New Keynesian model augmented with habit formation and backward-looking component of pricing behaviour. A macro-finance model of yield curve is developed to showcase the dynamics of implied forward yields. This exercise, with the distance approach, reiterate the inability of macro model in explaining yield curve dynamics. The method also reveals remarkable interconnection between real quantity and bond yield slope.
In Chapter four I study a general equilibrium business cycle model with sticky prices and labour market rigidities. With costly matching on labour market, output responds in a hump-shaped and persistent manner to monetary shocks and the resulting Phillips curve seems to radically change the scope for monetary policy because (i) there are speed limit effects for policy and (ii) there is a cost channel for monetary policy. Labour reforms such as in mid-1980s UK can trigger more effective monetary policy. Research on monetary policy shall pay greater attention to output when labour market adjustments are persistent.
Chapter five analyzes the link between money and financial spread, which is oft missed in specification of monetary policy making analysis. When liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for money from the real economy, money may contain information of future output and inflation due to its impact on financial spreads. I use a sign-restriction Bayesian VAR estimation to separate the liquidity provision impact from money market equilibrium. The decomposition exercise shows supply shocks dominate the money-price nexus in the short to medium term. It also uncovers distinctive policy stance of two central banks.
Finally Chapter six concludes, providing a brief summary of the research work as well as a discussion of potential limitations and possible directions for future research.The determinants of corporate growthRosique, Franciscohttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/9182019-03-29T15:53:37Z2010-06-23T00:00:00ZCorporate growth is a concept that has been widely treated in a specific way or as part of strategy theories, in definition and in econometric models and has also been studied in many different aspects and approaches. The author describes in depth the main variables affecting corporate growth and the underlying business processes.
This empirical research has focused on sales, profit-cash flow, risk, created shareholder value, market value and overall performance econometric models. These panel data models are based on the 500 Companies of the Standard & Poor’s 500. The methodology used has been very strict in identifying exogenous variables, walking through the different alternative econometric models, discussing results, and, in the end, describing the practical implications in today’s business corporate management.
We basically assume that the functions/departments act independently in the same company, many times with different objectives, and in this situation clear processes are key to clarify the situations, roles and responsibilities. We also assume that growth implies interactions among the different functions in a company and the CEO acts to lead and coach his immediate Directors as a referee of the key conflicts through his operating mechanism.
The objective of this PhD dissertation is to clarify the business priorities and identify the most relevant variables in every process leading to the highest efficiency in reaching a sustainable and profitable growth. It covers the lack of academic studies on the nature and specific driving factors of corporate growth and provides a working framework for entrepreneurs and management leading to the company’s success.
2010-06-23T00:00:00ZRosique, FranciscoCorporate growth is a concept that has been widely treated in a specific way or as part of strategy theories, in definition and in econometric models and has also been studied in many different aspects and approaches. The author describes in depth the main variables affecting corporate growth and the underlying business processes.
This empirical research has focused on sales, profit-cash flow, risk, created shareholder value, market value and overall performance econometric models. These panel data models are based on the 500 Companies of the Standard & Poor’s 500. The methodology used has been very strict in identifying exogenous variables, walking through the different alternative econometric models, discussing results, and, in the end, describing the practical implications in today’s business corporate management.
We basically assume that the functions/departments act independently in the same company, many times with different objectives, and in this situation clear processes are key to clarify the situations, roles and responsibilities. We also assume that growth implies interactions among the different functions in a company and the CEO acts to lead and coach his immediate Directors as a referee of the key conflicts through his operating mechanism.
The objective of this PhD dissertation is to clarify the business priorities and identify the most relevant variables in every process leading to the highest efficiency in reaching a sustainable and profitable growth. It covers the lack of academic studies on the nature and specific driving factors of corporate growth and provides a working framework for entrepreneurs and management leading to the company’s success.Endogenous Price Flexibility and Optimal Monetary PolicySutherland, AlanSenay, Ozgehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/9052019-03-29T15:48:53Z2010-01-01T00:00:00ZMuch of the literature on optimal monetary policy uses models in which the degree of nominal price flexibility is exogenous. There are, however, good reasons to suppose that the degree of price flexibility adjusts endogenously to changes in monetary conditions. This paper extends the standard New Keynesian model to incorporate an endogenous degree of price flexibility. The model shows that endogenising the degree of price flexibility tends to shift optimal monetary policy towards complete inflation stabilisation, even when shocks take the form of cost-push distur¬bances. This contrasts with the standard result obtained in models with exogenous price flexibility, which show that optimal monetary policy should allow some degree of inflation volatility in order to stabilise the welfare-relevant output gap.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZSutherland, AlanSenay, OzgeMuch of the literature on optimal monetary policy uses models in which the degree of nominal price flexibility is exogenous. There are, however, good reasons to suppose that the degree of price flexibility adjusts endogenously to changes in monetary conditions. This paper extends the standard New Keynesian model to incorporate an endogenous degree of price flexibility. The model shows that endogenising the degree of price flexibility tends to shift optimal monetary policy towards complete inflation stabilisation, even when shocks take the form of cost-push distur¬bances. This contrasts with the standard result obtained in models with exogenous price flexibility, which show that optimal monetary policy should allow some degree of inflation volatility in order to stabilise the welfare-relevant output gap.Market segmentation and dual-listed stock price premium - an empirical investigation of the Chinese stock marketLiang, Jinghttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/8942019-03-29T15:53:17Z2009-12-08T00:00:00ZThis thesis comprises, firstly, a careful and detailed description of the institutional workings of the Chinese stock market; secondly, a literature review of the Chinese segmented markets and dual-listed shares price premium; and thirdly, three evidence-based contributions designed to cast new light on the Chinese A-shares premium puzzle. Publicly-listed firms in China, under certain criteria, can issue two different types of shares, namely A-shares and B-shares, to local and foreign investors respectively. These shares carry the same rights and obligations, but are however priced differently due to market segmentation. After a review of the literature on determinants of the premium, the first contribution offers a complementary explanation. I propose that the premium reflects the difference in valuation preferences between the local and foreign investors, i.e., local investors pay more attention to stock liquidity, while foreign investors pay more attention to firm’s intrinsic value, and so firms having more favorable fundamentals tend to have lower premia. The second contribution involves the examination of a controversial question that which investor group is better informed about local assets, by testing the direction of information flows between the A- and B-shares markets. Both time series methods, and panel data techniques which are used for the first time in this context, are employed, in order to get a distinct and more insightful picture against the current literature. The third contribution compares and contrasts institutional settings of China, Singapore and Thailand which have similar market segmentation and dual-listing systems; examines whether or not the premia in the three countries are caused by same factors; and tries to answer why foreign investors in China pay less, rather than more, as commonly observed in other segmented markets, for identical assets. It provides the first cross-country comparison evidence after 1999 with updated data.
2009-12-08T00:00:00ZLiang, JingThis thesis comprises, firstly, a careful and detailed description of the institutional workings of the Chinese stock market; secondly, a literature review of the Chinese segmented markets and dual-listed shares price premium; and thirdly, three evidence-based contributions designed to cast new light on the Chinese A-shares premium puzzle. Publicly-listed firms in China, under certain criteria, can issue two different types of shares, namely A-shares and B-shares, to local and foreign investors respectively. These shares carry the same rights and obligations, but are however priced differently due to market segmentation. After a review of the literature on determinants of the premium, the first contribution offers a complementary explanation. I propose that the premium reflects the difference in valuation preferences between the local and foreign investors, i.e., local investors pay more attention to stock liquidity, while foreign investors pay more attention to firm’s intrinsic value, and so firms having more favorable fundamentals tend to have lower premia. The second contribution involves the examination of a controversial question that which investor group is better informed about local assets, by testing the direction of information flows between the A- and B-shares markets. Both time series methods, and panel data techniques which are used for the first time in this context, are employed, in order to get a distinct and more insightful picture against the current literature. The third contribution compares and contrasts institutional settings of China, Singapore and Thailand which have similar market segmentation and dual-listing systems; examines whether or not the premia in the three countries are caused by same factors; and tries to answer why foreign investors in China pay less, rather than more, as commonly observed in other segmented markets, for identical assets. It provides the first cross-country comparison evidence after 1999 with updated data.Application of stochastic differential games and real option theory in environmental economicsWang, Wen-Kaihttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/8932019-07-01T10:10:50Z2009-12-23T00:00:00ZThis thesis presents several problems based on papers written jointly by the author and Dr. Christian-Oliver Ewald. Firstly, the author extends the model presented by Fershtman and Nitzan (1991), which studies a deterministic differential public good game. Two types of volatility are considered. In the first case the volatility of the diffusion term is dependent on the current level of public good, while in the second case the volatility is dependent on the current rate of public good provision by the agents. The result in the latter case is qualitatively different from the first one. These results are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples. Secondly, two existing lines of research in game theoretic studies of fisheries are combined and extended. The first line of research is the inclusion of the aspect of predation and the consideration of multi-species fisheries within classical game theoretic fishery models. The second line of research includes continuous time and uncertainty. This thesis considers a two species fishery game and compares the results of this with several cases. Thirdly, a model of a fishery is developed in which the dynamic of the unharvested fish population is given by the stochastic logistic growth equation and it is assumed that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. Explicit formulas for optimal fishing effort are derived in problems considered and the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts are investigated. Fourthly, a Dixit and Pindyck type irreversible investment problem in continuous time is solved, using the assumption that the project value follows a Cox-Ingersoll- Ross process. This solution differs from the two classical cases of geometric Brownian motion and geometric mean reversion and these differences are examined. The aim is to find the optimal stopping time, which can be applied to the problem of extracting resources.
2009-12-23T00:00:00ZWang, Wen-KaiThis thesis presents several problems based on papers written jointly by the author and Dr. Christian-Oliver Ewald. Firstly, the author extends the model presented by Fershtman and Nitzan (1991), which studies a deterministic differential public good game. Two types of volatility are considered. In the first case the volatility of the diffusion term is dependent on the current level of public good, while in the second case the volatility is dependent on the current rate of public good provision by the agents. The result in the latter case is qualitatively different from the first one. These results are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples. Secondly, two existing lines of research in game theoretic studies of fisheries are combined and extended. The first line of research is the inclusion of the aspect of predation and the consideration of multi-species fisheries within classical game theoretic fishery models. The second line of research includes continuous time and uncertainty. This thesis considers a two species fishery game and compares the results of this with several cases. Thirdly, a model of a fishery is developed in which the dynamic of the unharvested fish population is given by the stochastic logistic growth equation and it is assumed that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. Explicit formulas for optimal fishing effort are derived in problems considered and the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts are investigated. Fourthly, a Dixit and Pindyck type irreversible investment problem in continuous time is solved, using the assumption that the project value follows a Cox-Ingersoll- Ross process. This solution differs from the two classical cases of geometric Brownian motion and geometric mean reversion and these differences are examined. The aim is to find the optimal stopping time, which can be applied to the problem of extracting resources.Economics of entry into marriageBowmaker, Simon W.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/7212019-07-01T10:05:33Z2009-06-26T00:00:00ZThis thesis contains three studies on the economics of entry into marriage; a life event that has been shown to have significant implications for the well-being (economic and otherwise) of men, women and their children.
The first study examines the effect of family background on the timing of first marriage of 7,853 individuals born in 1970 in Great Britain. Hazard model analysis reveals that high levels of parental resources serve to delay entry into marriage for both males and females, although this effect fades as a young adult ages. Consistent with theories of “resource dilution”, a greater number of siblings present in the household during adolescence is associated with early marriage for both sexes. It is also found that the presence of a younger sibling in the household hastens marriage for males, while the presence of a younger brother is associated with early marriage for both sexes.
The second study investigates how changes in abortion policy in Eastern Europe during the late-eighties and early-nineties may have affected female first-marriage rates. Previous studies have suggested that more liberal abortion laws should lead to a decrease in marriage rates among young women as ‘shotgun weddings’ are no longer necessary. Empirical evidence from the United States lends support to that hypothesis. This study presents an alternative theory of abortion access and marriage based on the cost of search that suggests that more liberal abortion laws may actually promote young marriage. An empirical examination of marriage data from Eastern Europe shows that countries that liberalized their abortion laws during the late-eighties and early-nineties saw an increase in marriage rates among non-teenage women.
The third study uses a unique and comprehensive panel of 2441 U.S. counties spanning from 1970 to 1999 to examine the relationship between the cost of owner-occupied housing and entry into marriage. It is found that the burden of housing costs negatively affects the marriage rate. Further, it is reported that the greater the difference between the annual cost of owning a house and the annual cost of renting, the lower the marriage rate. These are important findings since they imply that government policies designed to reduce the cost of housing (such as tax advantages to owner-occupiers) have the potential to encourage entry into marriage.
2009-06-26T00:00:00ZBowmaker, Simon W.This thesis contains three studies on the economics of entry into marriage; a life event that has been shown to have significant implications for the well-being (economic and otherwise) of men, women and their children.
The first study examines the effect of family background on the timing of first marriage of 7,853 individuals born in 1970 in Great Britain. Hazard model analysis reveals that high levels of parental resources serve to delay entry into marriage for both males and females, although this effect fades as a young adult ages. Consistent with theories of “resource dilution”, a greater number of siblings present in the household during adolescence is associated with early marriage for both sexes. It is also found that the presence of a younger sibling in the household hastens marriage for males, while the presence of a younger brother is associated with early marriage for both sexes.
The second study investigates how changes in abortion policy in Eastern Europe during the late-eighties and early-nineties may have affected female first-marriage rates. Previous studies have suggested that more liberal abortion laws should lead to a decrease in marriage rates among young women as ‘shotgun weddings’ are no longer necessary. Empirical evidence from the United States lends support to that hypothesis. This study presents an alternative theory of abortion access and marriage based on the cost of search that suggests that more liberal abortion laws may actually promote young marriage. An empirical examination of marriage data from Eastern Europe shows that countries that liberalized their abortion laws during the late-eighties and early-nineties saw an increase in marriage rates among non-teenage women.
The third study uses a unique and comprehensive panel of 2441 U.S. counties spanning from 1970 to 1999 to examine the relationship between the cost of owner-occupied housing and entry into marriage. It is found that the burden of housing costs negatively affects the marriage rate. Further, it is reported that the greater the difference between the annual cost of owning a house and the annual cost of renting, the lower the marriage rate. These are important findings since they imply that government policies designed to reduce the cost of housing (such as tax advantages to owner-occupiers) have the potential to encourage entry into marriage.Welfare, growth and environment: a sceptical review of the skeptical environmentalist (Bjørn Lomborg, Cambridge University Press, 2001)FitzRoy, FelixSmith, Ianhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/6592019-03-29T15:49:33Z2002-01-01T00:00:00ZIn his wide ranging attempt to review the literature on economic development and welfare in
relation to the environment, Lomborg claims balance and objectivity, but actually presents a
thoroughly misleading picture of environmental prospects and research, global economic
development, and the real determinants of human welfare. Statistician Lomborg blatantly
distorts the evidence by systematically selecting statistics to support his claims that global
welfare is generally improving and environmental policy is unnecessary, while denying
catastrophic risks such as prolonged drought in major food growing areas (though such
events cannot be ruled out by climate models). In spite of its numerous errors and biases,
"the Lomborg scam" (as leading biologist E.O.Wilson aptly calls it) has been welcomed by
gullible or like-minded journalists and politicians.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000052/; March 2002. Forthcoming as a review article in the Scottish Journal of Political Economy
2002-01-01T00:00:00ZFitzRoy, FelixSmith, IanIn his wide ranging attempt to review the literature on economic development and welfare in
relation to the environment, Lomborg claims balance and objectivity, but actually presents a
thoroughly misleading picture of environmental prospects and research, global economic
development, and the real determinants of human welfare. Statistician Lomborg blatantly
distorts the evidence by systematically selecting statistics to support his claims that global
welfare is generally improving and environmental policy is unnecessary, while denying
catastrophic risks such as prolonged drought in major food growing areas (though such
events cannot be ruled out by climate models). In spite of its numerous errors and biases,
"the Lomborg scam" (as leading biologist E.O.Wilson aptly calls it) has been welcomed by
gullible or like-minded journalists and politicians.Universities and fundamental research: reflections on the growth of university-industry partnershipPoyago-Theotoky, JoannaBeath, JohnSiegel, Donald S.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/6582019-03-29T15:48:49Z2002-01-01T00:00:00ZThe recent rise in university-industry partnerships has stimulated an
important public policy debate regarding how these relationships affect
fundamental research. In this paper, we examine the antecedents and
consequences of policies to promote university-industry alliances. Although the
preliminary evidence appears to suggest that these partnerships have not had a
deleterious effect on the quantity and quality of basic research, some legitimate
concerns have been raised about these activities that require additional analysis.
We conclude that additional research is needed to provide a more accurate
assessment of the optimal level of commercialisation.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000053/; [Originally] November 2001. This version January 2002. Forthcoming in Oxford review of economic policy
2002-01-01T00:00:00ZPoyago-Theotoky, JoannaBeath, JohnSiegel, Donald S.The recent rise in university-industry partnerships has stimulated an
important public policy debate regarding how these relationships affect
fundamental research. In this paper, we examine the antecedents and
consequences of policies to promote university-industry alliances. Although the
preliminary evidence appears to suggest that these partnerships have not had a
deleterious effect on the quantity and quality of basic research, some legitimate
concerns have been raised about these activities that require additional analysis.
We conclude that additional research is needed to provide a more accurate
assessment of the optimal level of commercialisation.The cost of political intervention in monetary policyCobham, DavidPapadopoulos, AthanasiosZis, Georgehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/6572019-03-29T15:49:33Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZData from a unique monetary ‘experiment’ conducted in the UK during the period
1994-97 are used to investigate the cost of political intervention in monetary policy.
The paper finds that the difference between government bond yields in Germany (but
not the US) and the UK was systematically related to an index of the credibility of
monetary policy constructed on the basis of the frequency of agreements/
disagreements between the Minister of Finance who took the decisions on interest
rates and the Bank of England, whose recommendations were published with a lag,
with disagreements causing an increase in the yield differential.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000055/; Revised November 2001
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZCobham, DavidPapadopoulos, AthanasiosZis, GeorgeData from a unique monetary ‘experiment’ conducted in the UK during the period
1994-97 are used to investigate the cost of political intervention in monetary policy.
The paper finds that the difference between government bond yields in Germany (but
not the US) and the UK was systematically related to an index of the credibility of
monetary policy constructed on the basis of the frequency of agreements/
disagreements between the Minister of Finance who took the decisions on interest
rates and the Bank of England, whose recommendations were published with a lag,
with disagreements causing an increase in the yield differential.Taxation, unemployment and working time in models of economic growthFitzRoy, FelixFunke, MichaelNolan, Michael A.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/6562019-03-29T15:48:50Z2001-08-01T00:00:00ZThis paper combines collective bargaining over wages and working time with models of
endogenous and neoclassical growth. Public expenditure is funded by taxes on capital and labour
supplied by infinitely-lived households in a closed economy. Taxes on labour are generally
inefficient in both growth models, there is a “dynamic Laffer Curve”, and employment is increased
by a reduction of working hours below the collective bargaining level – except in the case of a
monopoly union. Although growth is maximised by competitive (efficient) hours, welfare-optimal
working time is below the collective bargain when union are ‘too weak’, and vice-versa.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000056/; Revised August 2001
2001-08-01T00:00:00ZFitzRoy, FelixFunke, MichaelNolan, Michael A.This paper combines collective bargaining over wages and working time with models of
endogenous and neoclassical growth. Public expenditure is funded by taxes on capital and labour
supplied by infinitely-lived households in a closed economy. Taxes on labour are generally
inefficient in both growth models, there is a “dynamic Laffer Curve”, and employment is increased
by a reduction of working hours below the collective bargaining level – except in the case of a
monopoly union. Although growth is maximised by competitive (efficient) hours, welfare-optimal
working time is below the collective bargain when union are ‘too weak’, and vice-versa.Heterogeneous beliefs and instabilityLasselle, LaurenceSvizzero, SergeTisdell, Clemhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/6552019-03-29T15:49:14Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZWhile Rational Expectations have dominated the paradigm of expectations formation,
they have been more recently challenged on the empirical ground such as, for
instance, in the dynamics of the exchange rate. This challenge has led to the
introduction of heterogeneous expectations in economic modeling. More specifically,
the forecasts of the market participants have been drawn from competing views. Two
behaviours are usually considered: agents are either fundamentalist or chartist.
Moreover, the possibility of switching from one behaviour to the other one is also
assumed.
In a simple cobweb model, we study the dynamics associated with different
endogenous switching process based on the path of prices. We provide an example
with an asymmetric endogenous switching process built on the dynamics of past
prices. This example confirms the widespread belief that fundamentalist market
behaviour as compared with that of chartist tends to promote market stability.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000057/
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZLasselle, LaurenceSvizzero, SergeTisdell, ClemWhile Rational Expectations have dominated the paradigm of expectations formation,
they have been more recently challenged on the empirical ground such as, for
instance, in the dynamics of the exchange rate. This challenge has led to the
introduction of heterogeneous expectations in economic modeling. More specifically,
the forecasts of the market participants have been drawn from competing views. Two
behaviours are usually considered: agents are either fundamentalist or chartist.
Moreover, the possibility of switching from one behaviour to the other one is also
assumed.
In a simple cobweb model, we study the dynamics associated with different
endogenous switching process based on the path of prices. We provide an example
with an asymmetric endogenous switching process built on the dynamics of past
prices. This example confirms the widespread belief that fundamentalist market
behaviour as compared with that of chartist tends to promote market stability.Renormalization method and its economic applicationsBriec, WalterLasselle, Laurencehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/6542019-03-29T15:49:41Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZThe purpose of this paper is to give new insights of the method of Helleman (1980) in the
context of macrodynamics. This method explains how a difference equation can be
locally studied from the Feigenbaum equation in the case of a constant Jacobian matrix.
First we introduce this technique. Second we apply it in two models: the model of
Matsuyama (1999) and the model of Kaldor (1957). Finally we present an extension of
the technique in the case of non constant (linear) Jacobian matrix and apply this extension
in the model of Médio (1992).
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000059/
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZBriec, WalterLasselle, LaurenceThe purpose of this paper is to give new insights of the method of Helleman (1980) in the
context of macrodynamics. This method explains how a difference equation can be
locally studied from the Feigenbaum equation in the case of a constant Jacobian matrix.
First we introduce this technique. Second we apply it in two models: the model of
Matsuyama (1999) and the model of Kaldor (1957). Finally we present an extension of
the technique in the case of non constant (linear) Jacobian matrix and apply this extension
in the model of Médio (1992).Growing through subsidiesAloi, MartaLasselle, Laurencehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/6532019-03-29T15:48:57Z2001-01-01T00:00:00ZWe consider an overlapping generation model based on Matsuyama (1999)
and show that, whenever actual capital accumulation falls below its balanced
growth path, subsidising innovators by taxing consumers has stabilising effects
and increases welfare. Further, if the steady state is unstable under
laissez faire, the introduction of the subsidy can make the steady state stable.
Such a policy has positive welfare effects as it fosters output growth
along the transitional adjustment path. Therefore, fast growing economies,
in which high factor accumulation plays a crucial role alongside innovative
sectors that enjoy temporary monopoly rents, should follow an unorthodox
approach to stabilisation. Namely, taxing the consumers and reallocate resources
to the innovative sectors.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000060/
2001-01-01T00:00:00ZAloi, MartaLasselle, LaurenceWe consider an overlapping generation model based on Matsuyama (1999)
and show that, whenever actual capital accumulation falls below its balanced
growth path, subsidising innovators by taxing consumers has stabilising effects
and increases welfare. Further, if the steady state is unstable under
laissez faire, the introduction of the subsidy can make the steady state stable.
Such a policy has positive welfare effects as it fosters output growth
along the transitional adjustment path. Therefore, fast growing economies,
in which high factor accumulation plays a crucial role alongside innovative
sectors that enjoy temporary monopoly rents, should follow an unorthodox
approach to stabilisation. Namely, taxing the consumers and reallocate resources
to the innovative sectors.On the persistence of output fluctuations in high technology sectorsLasselle, LaurenceAloi, MartaMcMillan, David G.https://hdl.handle.net/10023/6522019-03-29T15:48:53Z2000-01-01T00:00:00ZFatás (2000) argues that in a cross-section analysis of countries there exists a positive
correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations.
The current paper extends this line of research by examining manufacturing sectors of an
economy which can be characterised by two levels of technology; a low level and a high
level. Analysis of the data reveals a positive correlation between long-term growth rates
and the persistence of output fluctuations in ‘high-tech’ sectors. This empirical analysis is
further supported by reformulating the model of Matsuyama (1999b) in a stochastic
environment. Within this framework the model is able to capture the two main theories of
growth, namely; the Solow model and the Romer model. The stochastic nature of the
long run output trend is endogenous and based on technological shocks. Despite the
cyclical nature of the shocks we are able to show that output fluctuations are more
persistent in ‘high-tech’ sectors.
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000061/
2000-01-01T00:00:00ZLasselle, LaurenceAloi, MartaMcMillan, David G.Fatás (2000) argues that in a cross-section analysis of countries there exists a positive
correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations.
The current paper extends this line of research by examining manufacturing sectors of an
economy which can be characterised by two levels of technology; a low level and a high
level. Analysis of the data reveals a positive correlation between long-term growth rates
and the persistence of output fluctuations in ‘high-tech’ sectors. This empirical analysis is
further supported by reformulating the model of Matsuyama (1999b) in a stochastic
environment. Within this framework the model is able to capture the two main theories of
growth, namely; the Solow model and the Romer model. The stochastic nature of the
long run output trend is endogenous and based on technological shocks. Despite the
cyclical nature of the shocks we are able to show that output fluctuations are more
persistent in ‘high-tech’ sectors.On the determinants of initial public offering underpricingQiao, Yongyuanhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/5752019-07-01T10:15:53Z2008-11-27T00:00:00ZThe initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon has frequently been noticed and generally is accepted as a puzzle in financial economics. Some of the new theories, such as behavioural finance, take the underpricing puzzle as one important form of evidence. However, some aspects of IPO underpricing have not yet been fully documented and discussed in the existing literature. This thesis tries to contribute in the following three specific areas.
First, we focus on the time series properties of the level of underpricing of IPO shares and document the IPO market in the Hong Kong market from 1999 to 2005. In the data sample, strong autocorrelation within the level of underpricing has been discovered. Evidence suggests the initial selling volume plays an important role in the relationship. The links between underpricing and clustering of IPOs within different industries are weak, suggesting the reasons for underpricing are related to the market liquidity rather than to the industry-specific risk characteristics.
Second, we investigate the underwriting networks to explore the relationship between underwriting business and IPO related puzzles. We find that in repeated IPOs, underwriters build up reputation and accumulate knowledge of their underwriting services. One of the great advantages of the top ranked underwriters is their relationship networks with other underwriters and institutional investors. We perform a careful examination of the underwriter syndicate and investigate the relationship of the structure of the syndicate in respect of IPO performance. Moreover, the pattern of distribution in the size of syndicates is identified and is found to be significantly related to the IPO performance. The research shows that the perspective from the underwriter syndicate is not only interesting, also necessary to understand IPOs.
Third, we analyse the coordination problem in the IPO. In the research, we consider the auction method as a one-stage selling and the bookbuilding method as a two-stage selling method. The model suggests that the relationship between the underpricing level and the quality of IPO shares is non-monotone. This implication is consistent with empirical observations. In addition, regarding the issuers' proceeds in the IPOs, the auction method is better than the bookbuilding method in both noisy and noisy vanishing equilibria. The bookbuilding method may be helpful in other ways, such as maintaining liquidity or price support in secondary market.
By studying liquidity, business networks and the coordination problem, the thesis does not only complement the existing research by providing unique explanations for the IPO underpricing and other related puzzles, but also opens some interesting venues for future research.
2008-11-27T00:00:00ZQiao, YongyuanThe initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon has frequently been noticed and generally is accepted as a puzzle in financial economics. Some of the new theories, such as behavioural finance, take the underpricing puzzle as one important form of evidence. However, some aspects of IPO underpricing have not yet been fully documented and discussed in the existing literature. This thesis tries to contribute in the following three specific areas.
First, we focus on the time series properties of the level of underpricing of IPO shares and document the IPO market in the Hong Kong market from 1999 to 2005. In the data sample, strong autocorrelation within the level of underpricing has been discovered. Evidence suggests the initial selling volume plays an important role in the relationship. The links between underpricing and clustering of IPOs within different industries are weak, suggesting the reasons for underpricing are related to the market liquidity rather than to the industry-specific risk characteristics.
Second, we investigate the underwriting networks to explore the relationship between underwriting business and IPO related puzzles. We find that in repeated IPOs, underwriters build up reputation and accumulate knowledge of their underwriting services. One of the great advantages of the top ranked underwriters is their relationship networks with other underwriters and institutional investors. We perform a careful examination of the underwriter syndicate and investigate the relationship of the structure of the syndicate in respect of IPO performance. Moreover, the pattern of distribution in the size of syndicates is identified and is found to be significantly related to the IPO performance. The research shows that the perspective from the underwriter syndicate is not only interesting, also necessary to understand IPOs.
Third, we analyse the coordination problem in the IPO. In the research, we consider the auction method as a one-stage selling and the bookbuilding method as a two-stage selling method. The model suggests that the relationship between the underpricing level and the quality of IPO shares is non-monotone. This implication is consistent with empirical observations. In addition, regarding the issuers' proceeds in the IPOs, the auction method is better than the bookbuilding method in both noisy and noisy vanishing equilibria. The bookbuilding method may be helpful in other ways, such as maintaining liquidity or price support in secondary market.
By studying liquidity, business networks and the coordination problem, the thesis does not only complement the existing research by providing unique explanations for the IPO underpricing and other related puzzles, but also opens some interesting venues for future research.Sustainable monetary policy : lessons and evidence from the bank suspension period, 1797-1821Newby, Elisa Maria Susannahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/5552019-07-01T10:12:17Z2008-07-25T00:00:00ZThis thesis re-examines the suspension of the gold standard rule in Britain between 1797 and 1821 within the framework of the theory of credible and time consistent monetary policy. By combining both historical and theoretical analysis the thesis challenges the prevailing theory in which the gold standard is considered as a contingent rule and the suspension as an exogenously credible regime.
Firstly, the thesis analyses what made the suspension credible in the absence of the gold standard rule. It is proposed that the suspension was a credible regime, because the resumption of the gold standard at the old par value in the future was a sustainable plan. It is shown that monetary policy during the bad state -- such as war -- can still be time consistent in the absence of the formal commitment rule, if the policy maker's plan is to resume the original commitment rule when the economy returns to the good state. The equilibrium is based on trigger strategies where private agents retaliate if a policy maker deviates from its policy plan to resume the gold standard rule.
Secondly, the thesis aims to establish why the gold standard rule was suspended for twenty-four years. Both historical analysis and a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrate that the gold standard was a shock amplifier when the shocks became persistent in the 1790s, and suspension was used to restore monetary stability during the French Wars. As the suspension of cash payments was a credible regime, it maintained the value and circulation of paper currency that in turn stabilised production and consumption. Suspension increased the degree of flexibility in the economic policy as the monetary authority had an opportunity to stimulate the economy by issuing fiat money during the war, on the understanding that the fiat money so issued would be withdrawn from circulation before the gold standard resumed.
Finally, it is explained why the gold standard was resumed after the relatively successful Suspension Period. The gold standard was seen as a solution to the problem that arose from the Bank of England's ambiguous role as a public and private institution. Rules were considered to be better than discretion, and the gold convertibility was a transparent principle, which maximised the long-run welfare of the society. The thesis demonstrates how already in the eighteenth century commitment to the gold standard rule had increased the efficiency of capital markets and enabled Britain to finance its eighteenth-century wars by using deficit finance. Maintaining these abilities through the gold standard was desirable.
2008-07-25T00:00:00ZNewby, Elisa Maria SusannaThis thesis re-examines the suspension of the gold standard rule in Britain between 1797 and 1821 within the framework of the theory of credible and time consistent monetary policy. By combining both historical and theoretical analysis the thesis challenges the prevailing theory in which the gold standard is considered as a contingent rule and the suspension as an exogenously credible regime.
Firstly, the thesis analyses what made the suspension credible in the absence of the gold standard rule. It is proposed that the suspension was a credible regime, because the resumption of the gold standard at the old par value in the future was a sustainable plan. It is shown that monetary policy during the bad state -- such as war -- can still be time consistent in the absence of the formal commitment rule, if the policy maker's plan is to resume the original commitment rule when the economy returns to the good state. The equilibrium is based on trigger strategies where private agents retaliate if a policy maker deviates from its policy plan to resume the gold standard rule.
Secondly, the thesis aims to establish why the gold standard rule was suspended for twenty-four years. Both historical analysis and a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrate that the gold standard was a shock amplifier when the shocks became persistent in the 1790s, and suspension was used to restore monetary stability during the French Wars. As the suspension of cash payments was a credible regime, it maintained the value and circulation of paper currency that in turn stabilised production and consumption. Suspension increased the degree of flexibility in the economic policy as the monetary authority had an opportunity to stimulate the economy by issuing fiat money during the war, on the understanding that the fiat money so issued would be withdrawn from circulation before the gold standard resumed.
Finally, it is explained why the gold standard was resumed after the relatively successful Suspension Period. The gold standard was seen as a solution to the problem that arose from the Bank of England's ambiguous role as a public and private institution. Rules were considered to be better than discretion, and the gold convertibility was a transparent principle, which maximised the long-run welfare of the society. The thesis demonstrates how already in the eighteenth century commitment to the gold standard rule had increased the efficiency of capital markets and enabled Britain to finance its eighteenth-century wars by using deficit finance. Maintaining these abilities through the gold standard was desirable.High technology firm performance, innovation, and networks : an empirical analysis of firms in Scottish high technology clustersUjjual, Vandanahttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/5392019-07-01T10:10:19Z2008-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis is an empirical analysis of the performance, innovation and networks of high
technology firms. It is conducted at the micro-economic level, based on new empirical
evidence by fieldwork methods, from the primary source data on firms in the five Scottish
hi-tech clusters. The questionnaire design is cross-sectional, to which was added a time
series element, and involves many unique features. It enabled the gathering of rich
quantitative and qualitative data on all stages of the dynamic innovation process. The
database was used in cross-sectional analysis of many key hypotheses in the hi-tech
context, by robust econometric models of export, innovation (e.g. Schumpeterian
hypothesis), and growth (e.g. Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect) performances. The hi-
tech firm’s networks, internationalisation and embeddeddness, are analysed using novel
measures.
A structural simultaneous equations model is developed to explain the relationship between
networks, innovation and performance, by establishing a link between the innovation input,
the innovation output, and performance, based on the empirical knowledge production
function model. The 2-stage, 4 equations model, (using Heckman’s procedure) deals with
both simultaneity and sample selection bias. Robust estimation techniques (I3SLS, Tobit)
are used for estimation.
The results highlight the simultaneity and selectivity issue. The hi-tech firms with
aggressive innovation strategies, international markets and global products, still find it vital
to be embedded in local networks, which in turn raise their performance. Technology-push
factors, research networks, knowledge spillovers from markets, and a firm’s radical
innovation attempts determine its innovation input intensity. Firms are unable to attain
innovation success through innovation investments alone; integration of internal and
external resources is important. The innovation sales intensity are not determined by
innovation input, but by the demand-pull factors like customer networks, exporting, and
market expansion strategies. This also applies to their export intensity. Lack of internal
resources, capabilities, and government support are the major obstacles to
commercialisation of innovation.
2008-01-01T00:00:00ZUjjual, VandanaThis thesis is an empirical analysis of the performance, innovation and networks of high
technology firms. It is conducted at the micro-economic level, based on new empirical
evidence by fieldwork methods, from the primary source data on firms in the five Scottish
hi-tech clusters. The questionnaire design is cross-sectional, to which was added a time
series element, and involves many unique features. It enabled the gathering of rich
quantitative and qualitative data on all stages of the dynamic innovation process. The
database was used in cross-sectional analysis of many key hypotheses in the hi-tech
context, by robust econometric models of export, innovation (e.g. Schumpeterian
hypothesis), and growth (e.g. Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect) performances. The hi-
tech firm’s networks, internationalisation and embeddeddness, are analysed using novel
measures.
A structural simultaneous equations model is developed to explain the relationship between
networks, innovation and performance, by establishing a link between the innovation input,
the innovation output, and performance, based on the empirical knowledge production
function model. The 2-stage, 4 equations model, (using Heckman’s procedure) deals with
both simultaneity and sample selection bias. Robust estimation techniques (I3SLS, Tobit)
are used for estimation.
The results highlight the simultaneity and selectivity issue. The hi-tech firms with
aggressive innovation strategies, international markets and global products, still find it vital
to be embedded in local networks, which in turn raise their performance. Technology-push
factors, research networks, knowledge spillovers from markets, and a firm’s radical
innovation attempts determine its innovation input intensity. Firms are unable to attain
innovation success through innovation investments alone; integration of internal and
external resources is important. The innovation sales intensity are not determined by
innovation input, but by the demand-pull factors like customer networks, exporting, and
market expansion strategies. This also applies to their export intensity. Lack of internal
resources, capabilities, and government support are the major obstacles to
commercialisation of innovation.Monetary frameworks in developing countries : central bank independence and exchange rate arrangementsMaziad, Samarhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/4762019-03-29T15:49:42Z2008-06-01T00:00:00ZThe objective of the thesis was to study monetary policy frameworks in developing
countries. The thesis focused on three aspects of the monetary framework; the
degree of central bank independence, the monetary policy strategy and the exchange rate regime. The research applied quantitative empirical analysis and in-depth
case studies on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.
The empirical research investigated three areas: 1) the phenomenon of ‘fear of
floating’ and the correlation between exchange rate and macroeconomic volatility;
2) the degree of monetary policy independence in developing countries in the
context of their increased integration into the global economic system; and 3) the
degree of central bank independence and how it impacts both ‘fear of floating’ and
monetary policy independence. The case studies allowed for an in-depth
understanding of the process of setting monetary policy and the constraints under
which it is formulated in developing countries.
The results that emerged from the quantitative analysis highlight the impact of central bank independence in influencing the other aspects of the monetary framework, as it can mitigate fear of floating and contribute to increased monetary policy independence of world interest rates in developing countries.
The case studies detailed the evolution of monetary frameworks in three countries
with varying degrees of central bank independence. The degree of central bank
independence increased in Egypt and Jordan as a result of severe currency crises in
each country, while Lebanon provides a very different example of a developing
country with an independent central bank since its inception.
The conclusions that emerged from the cases suggest that central bank independence is critical in achieving exchange rate and price stability; however, developing countries should avoid focusing on exchange rate stability at the expense of other considerations for extended periods of time. In that, the results point to the benefits of proactively and pre-emptively managing the exchange rate regime. The cases also highlight the importance of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as conditions of fiscal profligacy can undermine even the
most independent central bank.
2008-06-01T00:00:00ZMaziad, SamarThe objective of the thesis was to study monetary policy frameworks in developing
countries. The thesis focused on three aspects of the monetary framework; the
degree of central bank independence, the monetary policy strategy and the exchange rate regime. The research applied quantitative empirical analysis and in-depth
case studies on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.
The empirical research investigated three areas: 1) the phenomenon of ‘fear of
floating’ and the correlation between exchange rate and macroeconomic volatility;
2) the degree of monetary policy independence in developing countries in the
context of their increased integration into the global economic system; and 3) the
degree of central bank independence and how it impacts both ‘fear of floating’ and
monetary policy independence. The case studies allowed for an in-depth
understanding of the process of setting monetary policy and the constraints under
which it is formulated in developing countries.
The results that emerged from the quantitative analysis highlight the impact of central bank independence in influencing the other aspects of the monetary framework, as it can mitigate fear of floating and contribute to increased monetary policy independence of world interest rates in developing countries.
The case studies detailed the evolution of monetary frameworks in three countries
with varying degrees of central bank independence. The degree of central bank
independence increased in Egypt and Jordan as a result of severe currency crises in
each country, while Lebanon provides a very different example of a developing
country with an independent central bank since its inception.
The conclusions that emerged from the cases suggest that central bank independence is critical in achieving exchange rate and price stability; however, developing countries should avoid focusing on exchange rate stability at the expense of other considerations for extended periods of time. In that, the results point to the benefits of proactively and pre-emptively managing the exchange rate regime. The cases also highlight the importance of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as conditions of fiscal profligacy can undermine even the
most independent central bank.Macroeconomic variables and the stock market : an empirical comparison of the US and JapanHumpe, Andreashttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/4642019-07-01T10:14:14Z2008-06-25T00:00:00ZIn this thesis, extensive research regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is carried out. For this purpose the two largest stock markets in the world, namely the US and Japan, are chosen. As a proxy for the US stock market we use the S&P500 and for Japan the Nikkei225. Although there are many empirical investigations of the US stock market, Japan has lagged behind. Especially the severe boom and bust sequence in Japan is unique in the developed world in recent economic history and it is important to shed more light on the causes of this development. First, we investigate the long-run relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and the stock market in a cointegration framework. As expected, we can support existing findings in the US, whereas Japan does not follow the same relationships as the US. Further econometric analysis reveals a structural break in Japan in the early 1990s. Before that break, the long-run relationship is comparable to the US, whereas after the break this relationship breaks down. We believe that a liquidity trap in a deflationary environment might have caused the normal relationship to break down. Secondly, we increase the variable set and apply a non-linear estimation technique to investigate non-linear behaviour between macroeconomic variables and the stock market. We find the non-linear models to have better in and out of sample performance than the appropriate linear models. Thirdly, we test a particular non-linear model of noise traders that interact with arbitrage traders in the dividend yield for the US and Japanese stock market. A two-regime switching model is supported with an inner random or momentum regime and an outer mean reversion regime. Overall, we recommend investors and policymakers to be aware that a liquidity trap in a deflationary environment could also cause severe downturn in the US if appropriate measures are not implemented accordingly.
2008-06-25T00:00:00ZHumpe, AndreasIn this thesis, extensive research regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is carried out. For this purpose the two largest stock markets in the world, namely the US and Japan, are chosen. As a proxy for the US stock market we use the S&P500 and for Japan the Nikkei225. Although there are many empirical investigations of the US stock market, Japan has lagged behind. Especially the severe boom and bust sequence in Japan is unique in the developed world in recent economic history and it is important to shed more light on the causes of this development. First, we investigate the long-run relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and the stock market in a cointegration framework. As expected, we can support existing findings in the US, whereas Japan does not follow the same relationships as the US. Further econometric analysis reveals a structural break in Japan in the early 1990s. Before that break, the long-run relationship is comparable to the US, whereas after the break this relationship breaks down. We believe that a liquidity trap in a deflationary environment might have caused the normal relationship to break down. Secondly, we increase the variable set and apply a non-linear estimation technique to investigate non-linear behaviour between macroeconomic variables and the stock market. We find the non-linear models to have better in and out of sample performance than the appropriate linear models. Thirdly, we test a particular non-linear model of noise traders that interact with arbitrage traders in the dividend yield for the US and Japanese stock market. A two-regime switching model is supported with an inner random or momentum regime and an outer mean reversion regime. Overall, we recommend investors and policymakers to be aware that a liquidity trap in a deflationary environment could also cause severe downturn in the US if appropriate measures are not implemented accordingly.Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in economies with multiple distortionsHorvath, Michalhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/4382019-03-29T15:53:15Z2008-01-01T00:00:00ZThis thesis aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the optimal coordination of monetary and fiscal policy in complex economic environments.
We analyze the characteristics of optimal dynamics in an economy in which neither prices nor wages adjust instantaneously and lump-sum taxes are unavailable as a source of government finance. We then propose that monetary and fiscal policy should be coordinated to satisfy a pair of simple `specific targeting rules', a rule for inflation and a rule for the growth of real wages. We show that such simple rule-based conduct of policy can do remarkably well in replicating the dynamics of the economy under optimal policy following a given shock.
We study optimal policy coordination in the context of an economy where a constant proportion of agents lacks access to the asset market. We find that the optimal economy moves along an analogue of a conventional inflation-output variance frontier in response to a government spending shock, as the population share of non-Ricardian agents rises. The optimal output response rises, while inflation volatility subsides. There is little evidence that increased government spending would crowd in private consumption in the optimal economy.
We investigate the optimal properties and wider implications of a macroeconomic policy framework aimed at meeting an unconditional debt target. We show that the best stationary policy in terms of an unconditional welfare measure is characterized by highly persistent debt dynamics, less history-dependence in the conduct of policy, less reliance on debt finance and more short-term volatility following a government spending shock compared with the non-stationary `timelessly optimal' plan.
2008-01-01T00:00:00ZHorvath, MichalThis thesis aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the optimal coordination of monetary and fiscal policy in complex economic environments.
We analyze the characteristics of optimal dynamics in an economy in which neither prices nor wages adjust instantaneously and lump-sum taxes are unavailable as a source of government finance. We then propose that monetary and fiscal policy should be coordinated to satisfy a pair of simple `specific targeting rules', a rule for inflation and a rule for the growth of real wages. We show that such simple rule-based conduct of policy can do remarkably well in replicating the dynamics of the economy under optimal policy following a given shock.
We study optimal policy coordination in the context of an economy where a constant proportion of agents lacks access to the asset market. We find that the optimal economy moves along an analogue of a conventional inflation-output variance frontier in response to a government spending shock, as the population share of non-Ricardian agents rises. The optimal output response rises, while inflation volatility subsides. There is little evidence that increased government spending would crowd in private consumption in the optimal economy.
We investigate the optimal properties and wider implications of a macroeconomic policy framework aimed at meeting an unconditional debt target. We show that the best stationary policy in terms of an unconditional welfare measure is characterized by highly persistent debt dynamics, less history-dependence in the conduct of policy, less reliance on debt finance and more short-term volatility following a government spending shock compared with the non-stationary `timelessly optimal' plan.Sunk cost accounting and entrapment in corporate acquisitions and financial markets : an experimental analysisKelly, Benjaminhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/4272019-03-29T15:50:08Z2008-06-01T00:00:00ZSunk cost accounting refers to the empirical finding that individuals tend to let their
decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time in such a way that they are
more risk seeking than they would be had they not incurred these costs. Such
behaviour violates the axioms of economic theory which states individuals should
only consider incremental costs and benefits when executing investments. This
dissertation is concerned whether the pervasive sunk cost phenomenon extends to
corporate acquisitions and financial markets. 122 students from the University of St
Andrews participated in three experiments exploring the use of sunk costs in
interactive negotiation contexts and financial markets. Experiment I elucidates that
subjects value the sunk cost issue higher than other issues in a multi-issue negotiation.
Experiment II illustrates that bidders are influenced by the sunk costs of competing
bidders in a first price, sealed-bid, common-value auction. In financial markets their
exists an analogous concept to sunk cost accounting known as the disposition effect.
This explains the tendency of investors to sell “winning” stocks and hold “losing”
stocks. Experiment III demonstrates that trading strategies in an experimental equity
market are influenced by a pre-trading brokerage cost. Not only are subjects
influenced in the direction that reduces the disposition effect but also trading is
diminished. Without the brokerage cost there was a significant disposition effect.
JEL-Classifications
C70, C90, D44, D80, D81, G11
2008-06-01T00:00:00ZKelly, BenjaminSunk cost accounting refers to the empirical finding that individuals tend to let their
decisions be influenced by costs made at an earlier time in such a way that they are
more risk seeking than they would be had they not incurred these costs. Such
behaviour violates the axioms of economic theory which states individuals should
only consider incremental costs and benefits when executing investments. This
dissertation is concerned whether the pervasive sunk cost phenomenon extends to
corporate acquisitions and financial markets. 122 students from the University of St
Andrews participated in three experiments exploring the use of sunk costs in
interactive negotiation contexts and financial markets. Experiment I elucidates that
subjects value the sunk cost issue higher than other issues in a multi-issue negotiation.
Experiment II illustrates that bidders are influenced by the sunk costs of competing
bidders in a first price, sealed-bid, common-value auction. In financial markets their
exists an analogous concept to sunk cost accounting known as the disposition effect.
This explains the tendency of investors to sell “winning” stocks and hold “losing”
stocks. Experiment III demonstrates that trading strategies in an experimental equity
market are influenced by a pre-trading brokerage cost. Not only are subjects
influenced in the direction that reduces the disposition effect but also trading is
diminished. Without the brokerage cost there was a significant disposition effect.
JEL-Classifications
C70, C90, D44, D80, D81, G11Factors which affect the dynamics of privately-owned Chinese firms: an interdisciplinary empirical evaluationXu, Zhibinhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/3722019-07-01T10:15:38Z2007-11-30T00:00:00ZThe thesis focuses on those factors which affect firm growth in the setting of the Chinese transition economy, such as size, age, entrepreneurship, resources, and environment. As regards the complexity of the business expansion mechanism, an interdisciplinary approach combining the fields of economics and management is adopted. Using fieldwork methods, new data were gathered in face-to-face interviews with 83 owner-managers of the Chinese privately owned firms in P. R. China in 2004, as well as in follow-up telephone interviews in 2006. The unique body of qualitative and quantitative data in terms of firm operation, human resources management, finance, technology and innovation, enterprise culture and competitive environment, were collected by a specially designed survey instrument, and enabled a number of new hypotheses to be tested in both economic and managerial aspects.
With respect to the modern developments of Gibrat’s Law (1931) and Jovanovic’s Learning Theory (1982) in economics, the effects of two “stylized factors”, namely size and age, along with a vector of firm-specific, environmental and selection bias variables, on firm growth, were examined in Heckman’s (1979) two-step selection model with the correction for sample selection bias and heteroscedasticity. The results indicated that the “stylized facts” that smaller and younger firms grew faster were also valid in the setting of China.
This thesis also explored managerial factors contributing to firm growth – viz. entrepreneurship theory, resource-based view in strategic management, and contingency theory in organizational behaviour. A variety of statistical methods were utilized to operationalize entrepreneurial orientation (EO), intangible assets (IA), and contingency factors (e.g. structure, environment, strategy, etc), and econometric models were estimated to examine their relationship with firm dynamics. The evidence suggested that IA might be more capable of facilitating firm growth than EO. However, when both were disaggregated into a lower level of attributes, the influences on growth may vary. Further, contingency theory, originally proposed for the case of larger firms in the west, was also validated in this study on the Chinese sampled firm. The combination of organizational forms and contingency configurations presented a higher power to explain business expansion. It implied that “the good fit” of contingency factors influenced firm dynamics only in a moderate way, whereas “the badness of fit” in configuration could engender either the highest or lowest firm growth, subject to their organizational structures.
2007-11-30T00:00:00ZXu, ZhibinThe thesis focuses on those factors which affect firm growth in the setting of the Chinese transition economy, such as size, age, entrepreneurship, resources, and environment. As regards the complexity of the business expansion mechanism, an interdisciplinary approach combining the fields of economics and management is adopted. Using fieldwork methods, new data were gathered in face-to-face interviews with 83 owner-managers of the Chinese privately owned firms in P. R. China in 2004, as well as in follow-up telephone interviews in 2006. The unique body of qualitative and quantitative data in terms of firm operation, human resources management, finance, technology and innovation, enterprise culture and competitive environment, were collected by a specially designed survey instrument, and enabled a number of new hypotheses to be tested in both economic and managerial aspects.
With respect to the modern developments of Gibrat’s Law (1931) and Jovanovic’s Learning Theory (1982) in economics, the effects of two “stylized factors”, namely size and age, along with a vector of firm-specific, environmental and selection bias variables, on firm growth, were examined in Heckman’s (1979) two-step selection model with the correction for sample selection bias and heteroscedasticity. The results indicated that the “stylized facts” that smaller and younger firms grew faster were also valid in the setting of China.
This thesis also explored managerial factors contributing to firm growth – viz. entrepreneurship theory, resource-based view in strategic management, and contingency theory in organizational behaviour. A variety of statistical methods were utilized to operationalize entrepreneurial orientation (EO), intangible assets (IA), and contingency factors (e.g. structure, environment, strategy, etc), and econometric models were estimated to examine their relationship with firm dynamics. The evidence suggested that IA might be more capable of facilitating firm growth than EO. However, when both were disaggregated into a lower level of attributes, the influences on growth may vary. Further, contingency theory, originally proposed for the case of larger firms in the west, was also validated in this study on the Chinese sampled firm. The combination of organizational forms and contingency configurations presented a higher power to explain business expansion. It implied that “the good fit” of contingency factors influenced firm dynamics only in a moderate way, whereas “the badness of fit” in configuration could engender either the highest or lowest firm growth, subject to their organizational structures.Productivity trends in the Thai manufacturing sector: the pre- and post-crisis evidence relating to the 1997 economic crisisArunsawadiwong, Suwanneehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/3692019-07-01T10:15:52Z2007-07-13T00:00:00ZThe principal aim of this thesis is to examine the validity of the claim that low productivity led to a decline in Thailand’s competitiveness, and hence, to the 1997 economic crisis. For a decade from 1985 to 1995, Thailand was one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with an average real annual GDP growth of 8.4 percent. However, such growth was criticized as being simply the result of large inward investment and rapid accumulation of capital, leading to very little productivity growth, and therefore, being unsustainable in the long run. Worse still, the later surges of capital inflows came in mainly as speculative stashes, instead of as foreign direct investments in production and businesses. Hence, as predicted, the boom finally came to a sudden end in 1997. The economic growth statistics recorded severe contraction, financial market collapsed, the currency was battered, domestic demand slumped, severe excess capacity was experienced, employment deteriorated, personal and corporate income diminished, inflation and the cost of living mounted, and finally, poverty surged.
This thesis utilizes a stochastic production frontier approach to verify the claim that low productivity lessened Thailand’s competitiveness. This approach, unlike the standard econometric approach, allows the existence of technical inefficiency in the production process. It also, unlike other non-parametric approaches, recognizes that such inefficiency can sometimes occur as a result of external factors that are out of the firms’ direct control, such as statistical errors and random shocks. The period covered in this thesis is from 1990 to 2002. This is divided into 2 sub-periods, i.e. the pre-crisis period (1990 – 1996) and the post-crisis period (1997 – 2002). The estimation results indicate a structural shift in the Thai manufacturing sector, from being labour intensive in the pre-crisis period to being capital intensive in the post-crisis period. The productivity level also improved post-crisis, as compared to the pre-crisis level, and is shown to follow an increasing trend. The low productive investment level in the pre-crisis period is identified as having led to the decline in the manufacturing sector’s efficiency. The thesis concludes that this low productivity level did indeed lead to the decline in Thailand’s competitiveness, and hence, to the decline of export growth, which was at that time the main source of Thailand’s economic growth; in turn, playing an important role in precipitating the 1997 economic crisis.
2007-07-13T00:00:00ZArunsawadiwong, SuwanneeThe principal aim of this thesis is to examine the validity of the claim that low productivity led to a decline in Thailand’s competitiveness, and hence, to the 1997 economic crisis. For a decade from 1985 to 1995, Thailand was one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with an average real annual GDP growth of 8.4 percent. However, such growth was criticized as being simply the result of large inward investment and rapid accumulation of capital, leading to very little productivity growth, and therefore, being unsustainable in the long run. Worse still, the later surges of capital inflows came in mainly as speculative stashes, instead of as foreign direct investments in production and businesses. Hence, as predicted, the boom finally came to a sudden end in 1997. The economic growth statistics recorded severe contraction, financial market collapsed, the currency was battered, domestic demand slumped, severe excess capacity was experienced, employment deteriorated, personal and corporate income diminished, inflation and the cost of living mounted, and finally, poverty surged.
This thesis utilizes a stochastic production frontier approach to verify the claim that low productivity lessened Thailand’s competitiveness. This approach, unlike the standard econometric approach, allows the existence of technical inefficiency in the production process. It also, unlike other non-parametric approaches, recognizes that such inefficiency can sometimes occur as a result of external factors that are out of the firms’ direct control, such as statistical errors and random shocks. The period covered in this thesis is from 1990 to 2002. This is divided into 2 sub-periods, i.e. the pre-crisis period (1990 – 1996) and the post-crisis period (1997 – 2002). The estimation results indicate a structural shift in the Thai manufacturing sector, from being labour intensive in the pre-crisis period to being capital intensive in the post-crisis period. The productivity level also improved post-crisis, as compared to the pre-crisis level, and is shown to follow an increasing trend. The low productive investment level in the pre-crisis period is identified as having led to the decline in the manufacturing sector’s efficiency. The thesis concludes that this low productivity level did indeed lead to the decline in Thailand’s competitiveness, and hence, to the decline of export growth, which was at that time the main source of Thailand’s economic growth; in turn, playing an important role in precipitating the 1997 economic crisis.Towards the microfoundations of finance and growthTrew, Alexhttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/3312019-07-01T10:17:55Z2007-06-20T00:00:00ZWe take a critical view of the standard approach to finance and growth. The mapping between the theory and empirics is shown to be poorly understood, and this is traced to deficiencies in our understanding of the microeconomics at play. By looking at both primary and secondary historical evidence we argue that issues of aggregation are critical, and that spatial factors are also prevalent. Further, we suggest that these disaggregated elements can change over the course of an industrial revolution. A model in the spirit of standard finance and growth theories is extended to consider these further effects, and we calibrate the model to data on historical growth paths.
In order to advance our understanding of the microeconomic factors that cause the observed phenomena in the finance-growth nexus, we develop a general equilibrium theory of financial intermediation in which exchange costs are endogenously determined by technologies, endowments and preferences. We suggest that incomplete contracts might be central to these phenomena. We link this framework to an understanding of power and political economy in a setting with heterogeneous agents. We develop these results numerically, showing a number of interesting interactions between markets, exchange costs and institutions in economies with different levels of wealth.
The model of endogenous exchange costs can be thought of in terms of the findings coming out of our historical analysis. We outline in some detail the further steps that need to be taken before we can speak of the microfoundations of finance and growth with any confidence. First, a fully dynamic model of markets and coalitions must be embedded within a story of economic growth that can match the dynamic observations. Second, we must develop our conception of incomplete contracting and the link with institutions and political economy. The thesis thus opens a number of interesting avenues for future research.
2007-06-20T00:00:00ZTrew, AlexWe take a critical view of the standard approach to finance and growth. The mapping between the theory and empirics is shown to be poorly understood, and this is traced to deficiencies in our understanding of the microeconomics at play. By looking at both primary and secondary historical evidence we argue that issues of aggregation are critical, and that spatial factors are also prevalent. Further, we suggest that these disaggregated elements can change over the course of an industrial revolution. A model in the spirit of standard finance and growth theories is extended to consider these further effects, and we calibrate the model to data on historical growth paths.
In order to advance our understanding of the microeconomic factors that cause the observed phenomena in the finance-growth nexus, we develop a general equilibrium theory of financial intermediation in which exchange costs are endogenously determined by technologies, endowments and preferences. We suggest that incomplete contracts might be central to these phenomena. We link this framework to an understanding of power and political economy in a setting with heterogeneous agents. We develop these results numerically, showing a number of interesting interactions between markets, exchange costs and institutions in economies with different levels of wealth.
The model of endogenous exchange costs can be thought of in terms of the findings coming out of our historical analysis. We outline in some detail the further steps that need to be taken before we can speak of the microfoundations of finance and growth with any confidence. First, a fully dynamic model of markets and coalitions must be embedded within a story of economic growth that can match the dynamic observations. Second, we must develop our conception of incomplete contracting and the link with institutions and political economy. The thesis thus opens a number of interesting avenues for future research.Environment and health in Central Asia: quantifying the determinants of child survivalFranz, Jennifer Suehttps://hdl.handle.net/10023/3302019-07-01T10:12:12Z2007-06-20T00:00:00ZThe impact of environmental degradation on well-being is largely ignored in terms of economic costs of development. Due in large part to measurement difficulties, the environment in the daily welfare of the world's poorest remains inadequately accounted for in development policies. The aim of this work is, therefore, to advance our understanding of the relationship between the environment and human health. Anthropogenic activities in Central Asia have severely disrupted the natural environment. The poorest, most vulnerable members of society are at an increased risk of mortality and a life-time of illness associated with worsening ecological conditions in the region. The work is by nature inter-disciplinary and pulls from many social sciences in an attempt to provide new insight into the role of long term environmental degradation and the impact on social welfare.
There are three main original contributions of this work. Firstly, the research demonstrates the traditional emphasis in the literature on socioeconomic factors in explaining high rates of child mortality in Central Asia is inadequate. Secondly, for the first time in an international cross-section examining the determinants of child survival, the macro-level environment is put forth as a key determinant of excess child mortality in Central Asia. An improved measure of income is used for the first time in such a study to control for important distributional effects within and between countries. The results confirm the hypothesis that traditional determinants do not account for endemically high rates of mortality in the region. Secondly, using administrative (oblast) data from Uzbekistan, Chapter 6 presents the first study of its kind to incorporate important geographic as well as socioeconomic information in explaining variation in infant mortality due likely to ecological degradation. Ultimately, the findings demonstrate the environment must be adequately considered in all policy making aimed at improving health outcomes in the region.
2007-06-20T00:00:00ZFranz, Jennifer SueThe impact of environmental degradation on well-being is largely ignored in terms of economic costs of development. Due in large part to measurement difficulties, the environment in the daily welfare of the world's poorest remains inadequately accounted for in development policies. The aim of this work is, therefore, to advance our understanding of the relationship between the environment and human health. Anthropogenic activities in Central Asia have severely disrupted the natural environment. The poorest, most vulnerable members of society are at an increased risk of mortality and a life-time of illness associated with worsening ecological conditions in the region. The work is by nature inter-disciplinary and pulls from many social sciences in an attempt to provide new insight into the role of long term environmental degradation and the impact on social welfare.
There are three main original contributions of this work. Firstly, the research demonstrates the traditional emphasis in the literature on socioeconomic factors in explaining high rates of child mortality in Central Asia is inadequate. Secondly, for the first time in an international cross-section examining the determinants of child survival, the macro-level environment is put forth as a key determinant of excess child mortality in Central Asia. An improved measure of income is used for the first time in such a study to control for important distributional effects within and between countries. The results confirm the hypothesis that traditional determinants do not account for endemically high rates of mortality in the region. Secondly, using administrative (oblast) data from Uzbekistan, Chapter 6 presents the first study of its kind to incorporate important geographic as well as socioeconomic information in explaining variation in infant mortality due likely to ecological degradation. Ultimately, the findings demonstrate the environment must be adequately considered in all policy making aimed at improving health outcomes in the region.