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Estimating animal population density using passive acoustics

Marques, Tiago A. — Wed, 01 May 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Reliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds, amphibians, and insects, especially in situations where inferences are required over long periods of time. There is considerable work ahead, with several potentially fruitful research areas, including the development of (i) hardware and software for data acquisition, (ii) efficient, calibrated, automated detection and classification systems, and (iii) statistical approaches optimized for this application. Further, survey design will need to be developed, and research is needed on the acoustic behaviour of target species. Fundamental research on vocalization rates and group sizes, and the relation between these and other factors such as season or behaviour state, is critical. Evaluation of the methods under known density scenarios will be important for empirically validating the approaches presented here

Estimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information

King, Ruth — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Injecting drug users (IDUs) have a direct social and economic effect yet can typically be regarded as a hidden population within a community. We estimate the size of the IDU population across the nine different Government Office regions of England in 2005–2006 by using capture–recapture methods with age (ranging from 15 to 64 years) and gender as covariate information. We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach using log-linear models, where we can include explicit prior information within the analysis in relation to the total IDU population (elicited from the number of drug-related deaths and injectors’ drug-related death rates). Estimation at the regional level allows for regional heterogeneity with these regional estimates aggregated to obtain a posterior mean estimate for the number of England's IDUs of 195840 with 95% credible interval (181700, 210480). There is significant variation in the estimated regional prevalence of current IDUs per million of population aged 15–64 years, and in injecting drug-related death rates across the gender × age cross-classifications. The propensity of an IDU to be seen by at least one source also exhibits strong regional variability with London having the lowest propensity of being observed (posterior mean probability 0.21) and the South West the highest propensity (posterior mean 0.46).

Estimating whale abundance using sparse hydrophone arrays

Harris, Danielle V. — Wed, 20 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Passive acoustic monitoring has been used to investigate many aspects of marine mammal ecology, although methods to estimate absolute abundance and density using acoustic data have only been developed in recent years. The instrument configuration in an acoustic survey determines which abundance estimation methods can be used. Sparsely distributed arrays of instruments are useful because wide geographic areas can be covered. However, instrument spacing in sparse arrays is such that the same vocalisation will not be detected on multiple instruments, excluding the use of some abundance estimation methods. The aim of this thesis was to explore cetacean abundance and density estimation using novel sparse array datasets, applying existing methods where possible, or developing new approaches. The wealth of data collected by sparse arrays was demonstrated by analysing a 10-year dataset collected by the U.S. Navy’s Sound Surveillance System in the north-east Atlantic. Spatial and temporal patterns of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) vocal activity were investigated using generalised additive models. Distance sampling-based methods were applied to fin whale calls recorded by an array of Ocean Bottom Seismometers in the north-east Atlantic. Estimated call density was 993 calls/1000 km².hr⁻¹ (CV: 0.39). Animal density could not be estimated because the call rate was unknown. Further development of the call localisation method is required so the current density estimate may be biased. Furthermore, analysing a single day of data resulted in a high variance estimate. Finally, a new simulation-based method developed to estimate density from single hydrophones was applied to blue whale calls recorded in the northern Indian Ocean. Estimated call density was 3 calls/1000 km².hr⁻¹ (CV: 0.17). Again, density of whales could not be estimated as the vocalisation rate was unknown. Lack of biological knowledge poses the greatest limitation to abundance and density estimation using acoustic data.

Competing conservation objectives for predators and prey : estimating killer whale prey requirements for Chinook salmon

Williams, Robert — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada–US) ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years) implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of conflict between conservation objectives for threatened or protected wildlife where the interaction between affected species can be quantified.

Quantifying biodiversity trends in time and space

Studeny, Angelika C. — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The global loss of biodiversity calls for robust large-scale diversity assessment. Biological diversity is a multi-faceted concept; defined as the “variety of life”, answering questions such as “How much is there?” or more precisely “Have we succeeded in reducing the rate of its decline?” is not straightforward. While various aspects of biodiversity give rise to numerous ways of quantification, we focus on temporal (and spatial) trends and their changes in species diversity. Traditional diversity indices summarise information contained in the species abundance distribution, i.e. each species' proportional contribution to total abundance. Estimated from data, these indices can be biased if variation in detection probability is ignored. We discuss differences between diversity indices and demonstrate possible adjustments for detectability. Additionally, most indices focus on the most abundant species in ecological communities. We introduce a new set of diversity measures, based on a family of goodness-of-fit statistics. A function of a free parameter, this family allows us to vary the sensitivity of these measures to dominance and rarity of species. Their performance is studied by assessing temporal trends in diversity for five communities of British breeding birds based on 14 years of survey data, where they are applied alongside the current headline index, a geometric mean of relative abundances. Revealing the contributions of both rare and common species to biodiversity trends, these "goodness-of-fit" measures provide novel insights into how ecological communities change over time. Biodiversity is not only subject to temporal changes, but it also varies across space. We take first steps towards estimating spatial diversity trends. Finally, processes maintaining biodiversity act locally, at specific spatial scales. Contrary to abundance-based summary statistics, spatial characteristics of ecological communities may distinguish these processes. We suggest a generalisation to a spatial summary, the cross-pair overlap distribution, to render it more flexible to spatial scale.

Fitting complex ecological point process models with integrated nested Laplace approximation

Illian, Janine Baerbel — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Summary 1. We highlight an emerging statistical method, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), which is ideally suited for fitting complex models to many of the rich spatial data sets that ecologists wish to analyse. 2. INLA is an approximation method that nevertheless provides very exact estimates. In this article, we describe the INLA methodology highlighting where it offers opportunities for drawing inference from (spatial) ecological data that would previously have been too complex to make practical model fitting feasible. 3. We use INLA to fit a complex joint model to the spatial pattern formed by a plant species, Thymus carnosus, as well as to the health status of each individual. 4. The key ecological result revealed by our spatial analysis of these data, relates to the distance-to-water covariate. We find that T. carnosus plants are generally healthier when they are further away from the water. 5. We suggest that this may be the result of a combination of (1) plants having alternative rooting strategies depending on how close to water they grow and (2) the rooting strategy determining how well the plants were able to tolerate an unusually dry summer. 6. We anticipate INLA becoming widely used within spatial ecological analysis over the next decade and suggest that both ecologists and statisticians will benefit greatly from working collaboratively to further develop and apply these emerging statistical methods.

A family of spatial biodiversity measures based on graphs

Rajala, T — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: While much research in ecology has focused on spatially explicit modelling as well as on measures of biodiversity, the concept of spatial (or local) biodiversity has been discussed very little. This paper generalises existing measures of spatial biodiversity and introduces a family of spatial biodiversity measures by flexibly defining the notion of the individuals’ neighbourhood within the framework of graphs associated to a spatial point pattern. We consider two non-independent aspects of spatial biodiversity, scattering, i.e. the spatial arrangement of the individuals in the study area and exposure, the local diversity in an individual’s neighbourhood. A simulation study reveals that measures based on the most commonly used neigh-bourhood defined by the geometric graph do not distinguish well between scattering and exposure. This problem is much less pronounced when other graphs are used. In an analysis of the spatial diversity in a rainforest, the results based on the geometric graph have been shown to spuriously indicate a decrease in spatial biodiversity when no such trend was detected by the other types of neighbourhoods. We also show that the choice neighbourhood markedly impacts on the classification of species according to how strongly and in what way different species spatially structure species diversity. Clearly, in an analysis of spatial or local diversity an appropriate choice of local neighbourhood is crucial in particular in terms of the biological interpretation of the results. Due to its general definition, the approach discussed here offers the necessary flexibility that allows suitable and varying neighbourhood structures to be chosen.

Evolution of ancient functions in the vertebrate insulin-like growth factor system uncovered by study of duplicated salmonid fish genomes

MacQueen, Daniel John — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Whole genome duplication (WGD) was experienced twice by the vertebrate ancestor (2 rounds; 2R), again by the teleost fish ancestor (3R) and most recently in certain teleost lineages (4R). Consequently, vertebrate gene families are often expanded in 3R and 4R genomes. Arguably, many types of ‘functional divergence’ present across 2R gene families will exceed that between 3R/4R paralogues of genes comprising 2R families. Accordingly, 4R offers a form of replication of 2R. Examining if this concept has implications for molecular evolutionary research, we studied insulin-like growth factor (IGF) binding proteins (IGFBPs), whose six 2R family members carry IGF hormones and regulate interactions between IGFs and IGF1-receptors (IGF1Rs). Using phylogenomic approaches, we resolved the complete IGFBP repertoire of 4R-derived salmonid fishes (nineteen genes; thirteen more than human) and established evolutionary relationships/nomenclature with respect to WGDs. Traits central to IGFBP action were determined for all genes, including atomic interactions in IGFBP-IGF1/IGF2 complexes regulating IGF-IGF1R binding. Using statistical methods, we demonstrate that attributes of these protein interfaces are overwhelming a product of 2R IGFBP family membership, explain 49-68% of variation in IGFBP mRNA concentration in several different tissues and strongly predict the strength and direction of IGFBP transcriptional regulation under differing nutritional-states. The results support a model where vertebrate IGFBP family members evolved divergent structural attributes to provide distinct competition for IGFs with IGF1Rs, pre-disposing different functions in the regulation of IGF-signaling. Evolution of gene expression acted to ensure the appropriate physiological production of IGFBPs according to their structural specializations, leading to optimal IGF-signaling according to nutritional-status and the endocrine/local mode of action. This study demonstrates that relatively recent gene family expansion can facilitate inference of functional evolution within ancient genetic systems. Description: This work was supported by the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland pooling initiative, funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant number HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Development temperature has persistent effects on muscle growth responses in gilthead sea bream

Garcia de la Serrana Castillo, Daniel — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Initially we characterised growth responses to altered nutritional input at the transcriptional and tissue levels in the fast skeletal muscle of juvenile gilthead sea bream. Fish reared at 21–22°C (range) were fed a commercial diet at 3% body mass d−1 (non-satiation feeding, NSF) for 4 weeks, fasted for 4d (F) and then fed to satiation (SF) for 21d. 13 out of 34 genes investigated showed consistent patterns of regulation between nutritional states. Fasting was associated with a 20-fold increase in MAFbx, and a 5-fold increase in Six1 and WASp expression, which returned to NSF levels within 16h of SF. Refeeding to satiation was associated with a rapid (<24 h) 12 to 17-fold increase in UNC45, Hsp70 and Hsp90α transcripts coding for molecular chaperones associated with unfolded protein response pathways. The growth factors FGF6 and IGF1 increased 6.0 and 4.5-fold within 16 h and 24 h of refeeding respectively. The average growth in diameter of fast muscle fibres was checked with fasting and significant fibre hypertrophy was only observed after 13d and 21d SF. To investigate developmental plasticity in growth responses we used the same experimental protocol with fish reared at either 17.5–18.5°C (range) (LT) or 21–22°C (range) (HT) to metamorphosis and then transferred to 21–22°C. There were persistent effects of development temperature on muscle growth patterns with 20% more fibres of lower average diameter in LT than HT group of similar body size. Altering the nutritional input to the muscle to stimulate growth revealed cryptic changes in the expression of UNC45 and Hsp90α with higher transcript abundance in the LT than HT groups, whereas there were no differences in the expression of MAFbx and Six1. It was concluded that myogenesis and gene expression patterns during growth are not fixed, but can be modified by temperature during the early stages of the life cycle.

Variation in female grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) reproductive performance correlates to proactive-reactive behavioural types

Twiss, Sean D — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Consistent individual differences (CIDs) in behaviour, indicative of behavioural types or personalities, have been shown in taxa ranging from Cnidaria to Mammalia. However, despite numerous theoretical explanations there remains limited empirical evidence for selective mechanisms that maintain such variation within natural populations. We examined behavioural types and fitness proxies in wild female grey seals at the North Rona breeding colony. Experiments in 2009 and 2010 employed a remotely-controlled vehicle to deliver a novel auditory stimulus to females to elicit changes in pup-checking behaviour. Mothers tested twice during lactation exhibited highly repeatable individual pup-checking rates within and across breeding seasons. Observations of undisturbed mothers (i.e. experiencing no disturbance from conspecifics or experimental test) also revealed CIDs in pup-checking behaviour. However, there was no correlation between an individuals’ pup-checking rate during undisturbed observations with the rate in response to the auditory test, indicating plasticity across situations. The extent to which individuals changed rates of pup-checking from undisturbed to disturbed conditions revealed a continuum of behavioural types from proactive females, who maintained a similar rate throughout, to reactive females, who increased pup-checking markedly in response to the test. Variation in maternal expenditure (daily mass loss rate) was greater among more reactive mothers than proactive mothers. Consequently pups of more reactive mothers had more varied growth rates centred around the long-term population mean. These patterns could not be accounted for by other measured covariates as behavioural type was unrelated to a mother’s prior experience, degree of inter-annual site fidelity, physical characteristics of their pupping habitat, pup sex or pup activity. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that variation in behavioural types is maintained by spatial and temporal environmental variation combined with limits to phenotype-environment matching.

What is biodiversity?

Magurran, Anne E. — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 00:00:00 GMT

The geometric mean of relative abundance indices : a biodiversity measure with a difference

Buckland, Stephen Terrence — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The 2010 Biodiversity Target of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), set in 2002, which stated that there should be ‘a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss' by 2010, highlighted the need for informative and tractable metrics that can be used to evaluate change in biological diversity. While the subsequent Aichi 2020 targets are more wide-ranging, they also seek to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss. The geometric mean of relative abundance indices, G, is increasingly being used to examine trends in biological diversity and to assess whether biodiversity targets are being met. Here, we explore the mathematical and statistical properties of G that make it useful for judging temporal change in biological diversity, and we discuss its advantages and limitations relative to other measures. We demonstrate that the index reflects trends in both abundance and evenness, and that it is not prone to bias when detectability of individuals varies by species. We note that it allows data from different surveys to be combined to generate a composite index. However, the index exhibits high variance and unstable behaviour when rarely-recorded species are included in the analyses. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES11-00186.1

Local and regional rarity in a diverse tropical fish assemblage

Hercos, A — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Because most species in an ecological assemblage are rare, much of the species richness we value is due to taxa with few individuals or a restricted distribution. It has been apparent since the time of ecological pioneers such as Bates and Darwin that tropical systems have disproportionately large numbers of rare species, yet the distribution and abundance patterns of these species remain largely unknown. Here, we examine the diversity of freshwater fish in a series of lakes in the Amazonian várzea, and relate relative abundance, both as numbers of individuals and as biomass, to the occurrence of species in space and time. We find a bimodal relationship of occurrence that distinguishes temporally and spatially persistent species from those that are infrequent in both space and time. Logistic regression reveals that information on occurrence helps distinguish those species that are rare in this locality but abundant elsewhere, from those that are rare throughout the region. These results form a link between different approaches used to evaluate commonness and rarity. In doing so, they provide a tool for identifying species of high conservation priority in poorly documented but species rich localities.

Using INLA to fit a complex point process model with temporally varying effects – a case study

Illian, Janine Baerbel — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) provides a fast and yet quite exact approach to fitting complex latent Gaussian models which comprise many statistical models in a Bayesian context, including log Gaussian Cox processes. This paper discusses how a joint log Gaussian Cox process model may be fitted to independent replicated point patterns. We illustrate the approach by fitting a model to data on the locations of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) herds in Zackenberg valley, Northeast Greenland and by detailing how this model is specified within the R-interface R-INLA. The paper strongly focuses on practical problems involved in the modelling process, including issues of spatial scale, edge effects and prior choices, and finishes with a discussion on models with varying boundary conditions.

Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity : challenges and opportunities

Dornelas, Maria — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series—lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality—that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.

Reasons for the invasive success of a guppy (Poecilia reticulata) population in Trinidad

Sievers, Caya — Thu, 31 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The introduction of non-native species into new habitats poses a major threat to native populations. Of particular interest, though often overlooked, are introductions of populations that are not fully reproductively isolated from native individuals and can hybridize with them. To address this important topic we used different approaches in a multi-pronged study, combining the effects of mate choice, shoaling behaviour and genetics. Here we present evidence that behavioural traits such as shoaling and mate choice can promote population mixing if individuals do not distinguish between native and foreign conspecifics. We examined this in the context of two guppy (Poecilia reticulata) populations that have been subject to an introduction and subsequent population mixing event in Trinidad. The introduction of Guanapo River guppies into the Turure River more than 50 years ago led to a marked reduction of the original genotype. In our experiments, female guppies did not distinguish between shoaling partners when given the choice between native and foreign individuals. Introduced fish are therefore likely to benefit from the protection of a shoal and will improve their survival chances as a result. The additional finding that male guppies do not discriminate between females on the basis of origin will further increase the process of population mixing, especially if males encounter mixed shoals. In a mesocosm experiment, in which the native and foreign populations were allowed to mate freely, we found, as expected on the basis of these behavioural interactions, that the distribution of offspring genotypes could be predicted from the proportions of the two types of founding fish. This result suggests that stochastic and environmental processes have reinforced the biological ones to bring about the genetic dominance of the invading population in the Turure River. Re-sampling the Turure for genetic analysis using SNP markers confirmed the population mixing process and showed that it is an on-going process in this river and has led to the nearly complete disappearance of the original genotype.

Evolution of the multifaceted eukaryotic akirin gene family

Macqueen, Daniel J. — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Background: Akirins are nuclear proteins that form part of an innate immune response pathway conserved in Drosophila and mice. This studies aim was to characterise the evolution of akirin gene structure and protein function in the eukaryotes. Results: akirin genes are present throughout the metazoa and arose before the separation of animal, plant and fungi lineages. Using comprehensive phylogenetic analysis, coupled with comparisons of conserved synteny and genomic organisation, we show that the intron-exon structure of metazoan akirin genes was established prior to the bilateria and that a single proto-orthologue duplicated in the vertebrates, before the gnathostome-agnathan separation, producing akirin1 and akirin2. Phylogenetic analyses of seven vertebrate gene families with members in chromosomal proximity to both akirin1 and akirin2 were compatible with a common duplication event affecting the genomic neighbourhood of the akirin proto-orthologue. A further duplication of akirins occurred in the teleost lineage and was followed by lineage-specific patterns of paralogue loss. Remarkably, akirins have been independently characterised by five research groups under different aliases and a comparison of the available literature revealed diverse functions, generally in regulating gene expression. For example, akirin was characterised in arthropods as subolesin, an important growth factor and in Drosophila as bhringi, which has an essential myogenic role. In vertebrates, akirin1 was named mighty in mice and was shown to regulate myogenesis, whereas akirin2 was characterised as FB11 in rats and promoted carcinogenesis, acting as a transcriptional repressor when bound to a 14-3-3 protein. Both vertebrate Akirins have evolved under comparably strict constraints of purifying selection, although a likelihood ratio test predicted that functional divergence has occurred between paralogues. Bayesian and maximum likelihood tests identified amino-acid positions where the rate of evolution had shifted significantly between paralogues. Interestingly, the highest scoring position was within a conserved, validated binding-site for 14-3-3 proteins. Conclusion: This work offers an evolutionary framework to facilitate future studies of eukaryotic akirins and provides insight into their multifaceted and conserved biochemical functions.

A non-technical overview of spatially explicit capture-recapture models

Borchers, David — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Most capture-recapture studies are inherently spatial in nature, with capture probabilities depending on the location of traps relative to animals. The spatial component of the studies has until recently, however, not been incorporated in statistical capture-recapture models. This paper reviews capture-recapture models that do include an explicit spatial component. This is done in a non-technical way, omitting much of the algebraic detail and focussing on the model formulation rather than on the estimation methods (which include inverse prediction, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods). One can view spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models as an endpoint of a series of spatial sampling models, starting with circular plot survey models and moving through conventional distance sampling models, with and without measurement errors, through mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) models. This paper attempts a synthesis of these models in what I hope is a style accessible to non-specialists, placing SECR models in the context of other spatial sampling models.

Fitness consequences of female multiple mating : A direct test of indirect benefits

Barbosa, Miguel — Sat, 15 Sep 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Background The observation that females mate multiply when males provide nothing but sperm - which sexual selection theory suggests is unlikely to be limiting - continues to puzzle evolutionary biologists. Here we test the hypothesis that multiple mating is prevalent under such circumstances because it enhances female fitness. We do this by allowing female Trinidadian guppies to mate with either a single male or with multiple males, and then tracking the consequences of these matings across two generations. Results Overall, multiply mated females produced 67% more F2 grand-offspring than singly mated females. These offspring, however, did not grow or mature faster, nor were they larger at birth, than F2 grand-offspring of singly mated females. Our results, however, show that multiple mating yields benefits to females in the form of an increase in the production of F1. The higher fecundity among multiply mated mothers was driven by greater production of sons but not daughters. However, contrary to expectation, individually, the offspring of multiply mated females do not grow at different rates than offspring of singly mated females, nor do any indirect fitness benefits or costs accrue to second-generation offspring. Conclusions The study provides strong evidence that multiple mating is advantageous to females, even when males contribute only sperm. This benefit is achieved through an increase in fecundity in the first generation, rather than through other fitness correlates such as size at birth, growth rate, time to sexual maturation and survival. Considered alongside previous work that female guppies can choose to mate with multiple partners, our results provide compelling evidence that direct fitness benefits underpin these mating decisions.

Workshop on new developments in cetacean survey methods

Borchers, David Louis — Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: This report contains the slides from a workshop on New Developments in Cetacean Survey Methods held on 27th November 2011 at the 19th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, Tampa, Florida. Review talks were given on Passive Acoustic Density Estimation (Len Thomas); Dealing with g(0)<1: Perception Bias (Stephen Buckland); Dealing with g(0)<1: Availability Bias (Hans Skaug); Dealing with Measurement Error (David Borchers); and Density Surface Modelling (Jay Barlow). The sessions were followed by a discussion, and this is summarized at the end of the report.

Spatial variation in foraging behaviour of a marine top predator (Phoca vitulina) determined by a large-scale satellite tagging program

Sharples, Ruth Jemma — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is a widespread marine predator in Northern Hemisphere waters. British populations have been subject to rapid declines in recent years. Food supply or inter-specific competition may be implicated but basic ecological data are lacking and there are few studies of harbour seal foraging distribution and habits. In this study, satellite tagging conducted at the major seal haul outs around the British Isles showed both that seal movements were highly variable among individuals and that foraging strategy appears to be specialized within particular regions. We investigated whether these apparent differences could be explained by individual level factors: by modelling measures of trip duration and distance travelled as a function of size, sex and body condition. However, these were not found to be good predictors of foraging trip duration or distance, which instead was best predicted by tagging region, time of year and inter-trip duration. Therefore, we propose that local habitat conditions and the constraints they impose are the major determinants of foraging movements. Specifically the distance to profitable feeding grounds from suitable haul-out locations may dictate foraging strategy and behaviour. Accounting for proximity to productive foraging resources is likely to be an important component of understanding population processes. Despite more extensive offshore movements than expected, there was also marked fidelity to the local haul-out region with limited connectivity between study regions. These empirical observations of regional exchange at short time scales demonstrates the value of large scale electronic tagging programs for robust characterization of at-sea foraging behaviour at a wide spatial scale.

Global coverage of cetacean line-transect surveys : status quo, data gaps and future challenges

Kaschner, Kristin — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Knowledge of abundance, trends and distribution of cetacean populations is needed to inform marine conservation efforts, ecosystem models and spatial planning. We compiled a geo-spatial database of published data on cetacean abundance from dedicated visual line-transect surveys and encoded >1100 abundance estimates for 47 species from 430 surveys conducted worldwide from 1975-2005. Our subsequent analyses revealed large spatial, temporal and taxonomic variability and gaps in survey coverage. With the exception of Antarctic waters, survey coverage was biased toward the northern hemisphere, especially US and northern European waters. Overall, <25% of the world’s ocean surface was surveyed and only 6% had been covered frequently enough (≥ 5 times) to allow trend estimation. Almost half the global survey effort, defined as total area (km2) covered by all survey study areas across time, was concentrated in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Neither the number of surveys conducted nor the survey effort had increased in recent years. Across species, an average of 10% of a species’ predicted range had been covered by at least one survey, but there was considerable variation among species. With the exception of three delphinid species, <1% of all species’ ranges had been covered frequently enough for trend analysis. We use a data-rich species, sperm whale, as an example to illustrate the challenges of using available data from line-transect surveys for the detection of trends or for spatial planning. Finally, we propose and contrast several field and analytical methods to fill in data gaps to improve future cetacean conservation management efforts.

Fast skeletal muscle transcriptome of the Gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) determined by next generation sequencing

Garcia de la Serrana Castillo, Daniel — Fri, 11 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Background: The gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.) occurs around the Mediterranean and along Eastern Atlantic coasts from Great Britain to Senegal. It is tolerant of a wide range of temperatures and salinities and is often found in brackish coastal lagoons and estuarine areas, particularly early in its life cycle. Gilthead sea bream are extensively cultivated in the Mediterranean with an annual production of 125,000 metric tonnes. Here we present a de novo assembly of the fast skeletal muscle transcriptome of gilthead sea bream using 454 reads and identify gene paralogues, splice variants and microsatellite repeats. An annotated transcriptome of the skeletal muscle will facilitate understanding of the genetic and molecular basis of traits linked to production in this economically important species. Results: Around 2.7 million reads of mRNA sequence data were generated from the fast myotomal of adult fish (~2 kg) and juvenile fish (~0.09 kg) that had been either fed to satiation, fasted for 3-5d or transferred to low (11°C) or high (33°C) temperatures for 3-5d. Newbler v2.5 assembly resulted in 43,461 isotigs >100 bp. The number of sequences annotated by searching protein and gene ontology databases was 10,465. The average coverage of the annotated isotigs was x40 containing 5655 unique gene IDs and 785 full-length cDNAs coding for proteins containing 58–1536 amino acids. The v2.5 assembly was found to be of good quality based on validation using 200 full-length cDNAs from GenBank. Annotated isotigs from the reference transcriptome were attributable to 344 KEGG pathway maps. We identified 26 gene paralogues (20 of them teleost-specific) and 43 splice variants, of which 12 had functional domains missing that were likely to affect their biological function. Many key transcription factors, signaling molecules and structural proteins necessary for myogenesis and muscle growth have been identified. Physiological status affected the number of reads that mapped to isotigs, reflecting changes in gene expression between treatments. Conclusions: We have produced a comprehensive fast skeletal muscle transcriptome for the gilthead sea bream, which will provide a resource for SNP discovery in genes with a large effect on production traits of commercial interest and for expression studies of growth and adaptation.

How selection structures species abundance distributions

Magurran, Anne E. — Sat, 22 Sep 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: How do species divide resources to produce the characteristic species abundance distributions seen in nature? One way to resolve this problem is to examine how the biomass (or capacity) of the spatial guilds that combine to produce an abundance distribution is allocated among species. Here we argue that selection on body size varies across guilds occupying spatially distinct habitats. Using an exceptionally well-characterized estuarine fish community, we show that biomass is concentrated in large bodied species in guilds where habitat structure provides protection from predators, but not in those guilds associated with open habitats and where safety in numbers is a mechanism for reducing predation risk. We further demonstrate that while there is temporal turnover in the abundances and identities of species that comprise these guilds, guild rank order is conserved across our 30-year time series. These results demonstrate that ecological communities are not randomly assembled but can be decomposed into guilds where capacity is predictably allocated among species.

How reproductive ecology contributes to the spread of a globally invasive fish

Deacon, Amy E. — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Invasive freshwater fish represent a major threat to biodiversity. Here, we first demonstrate the dramatic, human-mediated range expansion of the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), an invasive fish with a reputation for negatively impacting native freshwater communities. Next, we explore possible mechanisms that might explain successful global establishment of this species. Guppies, along with some other notable invasive fish species such as mosquitofish (Gambusia spp.), have reproductive adaptations to ephemeral habitats that may enable introductions of very small numbers of founders to succeed. The remarkable ability of single pregnant guppies to routinely establish viable populations is demonstrated using a replicated mesocosm set up. In 86% of cases, these populations persisted for two years (the duration of the experiment). Establishment success was independent of founder origin (high and low predation habitats), and there was no loss of behavioural performance amongst mesocosm juveniles. Behavioural "signatures" of the founding locality were, however, evident in mesocosm fish. Our results demonstrate that introductions consisting of a single individual can lead to thriving populations of this invasive fish and suggest that particular caution should be exercised when introducing this species, or other livebearers, to natural water bodies. Description: The work was funded by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (UK) and the European Research Council.

Global analysis of cetacean line-transect surveys : detecting trends in cetacean density

Jewell, Rebecca Lucy — Mon, 07 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Measuring the effect of anthropogenic change on cetacean populations is hampered by our lack of understanding about population status and a lack of power in the available data to detect trends in abundance. Often long-term data from repeated surveys are lacking, and alternative approaches to trend detection must be considered. We utilised an existing database of line transect survey records to determine whether temporal trends could be detected when survey effort from around the world was combined. We extracted density estimates for 25 species and fitted generalised additive models (GAMs) to investigate whether taxonomic, spatial or methodological differences among systematic line-transect surveys affect estimates of density and whether we can identify temporal trends in the data once these factors are accounted for. The selected GAM consisted of 2 parts: an intercept term that was a complex interaction of taxonomic, spatial and methodological factors and a smooth temporal term with trends varying by family and ocean basin. We discuss the trends found and assess the suitability of published density estimates for detecting temporal trends using retrospective power analysis. In conclusion, increasing sample size through combining survey effort across a global scale does not necessarily result in sufficient power to detect trends because of the extent of variability across surveys, species and oceans. Instead, results from repeated dedicated surveys designed specifically for the species and geographical region of interest should be used to inform conservation and management.

A general discrete-time modeling framework for animal movement using multi-state random walks

McClintock, Brett Thomas — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Recent developments in animal tracking technology have permitted the collection of detailed data on the movement paths of individuals from many species. However, analysis methods for these data have not developed at a similar pace, largely due to a lack of suitable candidate models, coupled with the technical difficulties of fitting such models to data. To facilitate a general modeling framework, we propose that complex movement paths can be conceived as a series of movement strategies among which animals transition as they are affected by changes in their internal and external environment. We synthesize previously existing and novel methodologies to develop a general suite of mechanistic models based on biased and correlated random walks that allow different behavioral states for directed (e.g., migration), exploratory (e.g., dispersal), area-restricted (e.g., foraging), and other types of movement. Using this “tool-box” of nested model components, multi-state movement models may be custom-built for a wide variety of species and applications. As a unified state-space modeling framework, it allows the simultaneous investigation of numerous hypotheses about animal movement from imperfectly observed data, including time allocations to different movement behavior states, transitions between states, the use of memory or navigation, and strengths of attraction (or repulsion) to specific locations. The inclusion of covariate information permits further investigation of specific hypotheses related to factors driving different types of movement behavior. Using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to facilitate Bayesian model selection and multi-model inference, we apply the proposed methodology to real data by adapting it to the natural history of the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) in the North Sea. Although previous grey seal studies tended to focus on correlated movements, we found overwhelming evidence that bias towards haul-out or foraging locations better explained seal movement than simple or correlated random walks. Posterior model probabilities also provided evidence that seals transition among directed, area-restricted, and exploratory movements associated with haul-out, foraging, and other behaviors. With this intuitive framework for modeling and interpreting animal movement, we believe the development and application of bespoke movement models will become more accessible to ecologists and non-statisticians.

Status assessment of the Critically Endangered Azores Bullfinch Pyrrhula murina

Ceia, Ricardo S. — Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The Azores Bullfinch is endemic to the island of São Miguel (Azores, Portugal). Its status was uplisted to Critically Endangered in 2005 on the basis of an extremely small and declining population that was considered to be restricted to a very small mountain range (43 km2), in a single location, within which the spread of invasive plants constituted a threat to habitat quality. Nevertheless, information was mostly inferred, or the product of, non-systematic studies. In order to carry out a complete assessment of the conservation status we analysed: (i) population trend, calculated from annual monitoring 1991–2008, (ii) population size, and (iii) range size, obtaining estimates in a single morning study in 2008 involving the simultaneous participation of 48 observers. Contrary to previous inferences, the population is no longer decreasing, although quality of laurel forest habitat continues to decline due to the persistent threat of invasive species. Population size (mean ± SE) was estimated at 1,064 ± 304 individuals using distance sampling methods, although the estimate was very sensitive to the survey method used. Range size estimates (extent of occurrence and area of occupancy) were 144 km2 and 83 km2 respectively. Given the present information, we propose the downlisting of Azores Bullfinch to Endangered on the IUCN Red List.

Temporal turnover and the maintenance of diversity in ecological assemblages

Magurran, Anne E. — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Temporal variation in species abundances occurs in all ecological communities. Here, we explore the role that this temporal turnover plays in maintaining assemblage diversity. We investigate a three-decade time series of estuarine fishes and show that the abundances of the individual species fluctuate asynchronously around their mean levels. We then use a time-series modelling approach to examine the consequences of different patterns of turnover, by asking how the correlation between the abundance of a species in a given year and its abundance in the previous year influences the structure of the overall assemblage. Classical diversity measures that ignore species identities reveal that the observed assemblage structure will persist under all but the most extreme conditions. However, metrics that track species identities indicate a narrower set of turnover scenarios under which the predicted assemblage resembles the natural one. Our study suggests that species diversity metrics are insensitive to change and that measures that track species ranks may provide better early warning that an assemblage is being perturbed. It also highlights the need to incorporate temporal turnover in investigations of assemblage structure and function.

A critical review of the literature on population modelling

Cabrelli, Abigail — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The 2005 report of the National Research Council’s ‘Committee on Characterizing Biologically Significant Marine Mammal Behavior’ proposed a framework, which they called PCAD - Population Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance, that uses a series of transfer functions to link behavioural responses to sound with life functions, vital rates, and population change. The Committee suggested that the best understood transfer functions are those linking vital rates to population change. One of the main aims of this report is to document that understanding. However, we also show how the existing frameworks for modelling the dynamics of marine mammal populations can be extended to include the effects of behavioural responses on vital rates. In Chapter 1 we introduce the central concept of the rate of increase (lambda) of a population, which we believe is the most useful measure of the effects of behavioural responses on the dynamics of a population. If the value of lambda exceeds one, then thepopulation will increase over time; if it is less than one it will decrease. We show how changes in lambda provide a measure of the impact of human activities (such as exploitation, conservation, or disturbance) on a population. We also introduce structured population models, which take account of the fact that all individuals in a population are not identical, and show how the dynamics of different parts of a population can be modelled using a population projection matrix. The mathematical properties of this projection matrix can be used to determine the sensitivity of lambda to small changes in vital rates. Finally, we provide a very brief introduction to the concept of stochasticity, and the use of lambda to predict when (and if) a population might be driven to extinction. Chapter 2 describes how lambda also provides a measure of the Darwinian fitness of the individual members of a population. An individual’s fitness, the contribution it will make to future generations, depends to a large extent on its body condition and on the risks of mortality to which it is exposed. Both of these could be affected by behaviour responses to sound. We also explain current theories about the relationship between an individual’s feeding behaviour and the abundance and distribution of prey, and how this can affect body condition. Chapter 3 provides a more detailed description of how elasticity analysis can be used to investigate the impact of changes in vital rates on lambda . Elasticity analysis is a useful tool for detecting which vital rates are most important in determining the dynamics of a population. However, its value is limited because it does not take account of random variations (stochasticity) and, in theory, it can only predict the effect of small changes in vital rates. Chapter 4 describes the fundamental concept of density dependence: the way in which vital rates change with population size or the availability of resources, such as prey. Not only is density dependence an essential prerequisite for population stability and sustainable use, but the form it takes will also determine how a population responds to behavioural changes. This is because behaviour, and particularly the effect of behavioural change on body condition, plays a central role in many of the mechanistic models of density dependence. Chapters 5 and 6 explore the way in which additional complexities, such as social structure and the way in which populations are distributed in space, can affect the dynamics of populations. Models that account for these complexities behave in a much less predictable way than the relatively simple structured models that form the core of Chapters 1-4. So far, the models of population dynamics that we have reviewed have been deterministic. That is, they have assumed that the only way in which vital rates can vary is in response to a change in abundance, via density dependent mechanisms. In Chapters 7 and 8 we investigate the effect of random variation (stochasticity) on population dynamics. We distinguish the effects of demographic stochasticity, chance variations in the number of animals that die or give birth in a time interval that occur even if vital rates do not vary over time, and environmental stochasticity, which is the result of variations in vital rates across years. Variation in abundance may also occur as a result of environmental change and changes in the ecological community of which a population is a part. The effect of all these sources of variation is to reduce the realised growth rate of a population, and therefore its risk of extinction. In Chapter 9 we consider how the basic population modelling framework described in Chapters 1-8 might be extended to take account of the life functions identified by the NRC Committee. We suggest that these life functions are useful for defining the context in which behavioural responses might affect vital rates, but that they do not need to be modelled explicitly. Removing vital functions from the PCAD framework results in a much simpler structure, which is compatible with existing population modelling frameworks. However, these will have to be extended to allow population states, like body condition, that vary continuously to be modelled. Chapter 10 describes how changes in lambda can be detected. The simple analytical frameworks that are available for this are all vulnerable to the effects of variability that we introduced in Chapter 7. However, there is a framework (state-space and hidden Markov process modelling) that can account for the effects of this variability, and we recommend its use for detecting trends. The additional benefit of this approach is that its use results in a detailed model of the dynamics of the population that is under investigation. Chapter 11 reviews the different model structures that can be used to describe the dynamics of a population, and explains when different forms of population models (e.g. discrete vs. continuous time, deterministic vs. stochastic) are most appropriate. We also discuss how these different frameworks can be extended to account for continuous population states, as recommended in Chapter 8. The final focus is on how state-space models can be fitted to time series of abundance estimates and information on vital rates. Chapter 12 looks at the relevance of the different modelling approaches described in the previous chapters for analysing the potential effects of behavioural responses to sound on population dynamics, particularly the kinds of sounds that may be generated by the oil and gas industry. We conclude that lambda , the population rate of increase, and its variation provides a useful measure of these effects. We also believe that the models used for this purpose will certainly have to account for the effects of variability and density dependence. They will probably also have to account for the effects of social structure and the way in which populations use space. The state-space modelling framework outlined in Chapter 11 can, in principle, be extended to capture all of these features although work on this is still in its infancy. Description: Final Report to the Joint Industry Project of the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers on contract JIP22 07_20

Universal scaling rules predict evolutionary patterns of myogenesis in species with indeterminate growth

Johnston, Ian Alistair — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Intraspecific phenotypic variation is ubiquitous and often associated with resource exploitation in emerging habitats. For example, reduced body size has evolved repeatedly in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.) and threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) across post-glacial habitats of the Northern Hemisphere. Exploiting these models, we examined how body size and myogenesis evolve with respect to the 'optimum fibre size hypothesis', which predicts that selection acts to minimize energetic costs associated with ionic homeostasis by optimizing muscle fibre production during development. In eight dwarf Icelandic Arctic charr populations, the ultimate production of fast-twitch muscle fibres (FN(max)) was only 39.5 and 15.5 per cent of that in large-bodied natural and aquaculture populations, respectively. Consequently, average fibre diameter (FD) scaled with a mass exponent of 0.19, paralleling the relaxation of diffusional constraints associated with mass-specific metabolic rate scaling. Similar reductions in FN(max) were observed for stickleback, including a small-bodied Alaskan population derived from a larger-bodied oceanic stock over a decadal timescale. The results suggest that in species showing indeterminate growth, body size evolution is accompanied by strong selection for fibre size optimization, theoretically allowing resources saved from ionic homeostasis to be allocated to other traits affecting fitness, including reproduction. Gene flow between small- and large-bodied populations residing in sympatry may counteract the evolution of this trait.

An update to the methods in Endangered Species Research 2011 paper "Estimating North Pacific right whale Eubalaena japonica density using passive acoustic cue counting"

Marques, Tiago A. — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

A toolbox for fitting complex spatial point process models using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)

Illian, Janine Baerbel — Sat, 01 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by considering constructed covariates. This enables us to use integrated nested Laplace approximation and to considerably speed up the inferential task. In addition, methods for model comparison and model assessment facilitate the modelling process. The performance of the approach is assessed in a simulation study. To demonstrate the versatility of the approach, models are tted to two rather dierent examples, a large rainforest data set with covariates and a point pattern with multiple marks.

Selection of reference genes for expression studies with fish myogenic cell cultures

Bower, Neil I. — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Background: Relatively few studies have used cell culture systems to investigate gene expression and the regulation of myogenesis in fish. To produce robust data from quantitative real-time PCR mRNA levels need to be normalised using internal reference genes which have stable expression across all experimental samples. We have investigated the expression of eight candidate genes to identify suitable reference genes for use in primary myogenic cell cultures from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The software analysis packages geNorm, Normfinder and Best keeper were used to rank genes according to their stability across 42 samples during the course of myogenic differentiation. Results: Initial results showed several of the candidate genes exhibited stable expression throughout myogenic culture while Sdha was identified as the least stable gene. Further analysis with geNorm, Normfinder and Bestkeeper identified Ef1 alpha, Hprt1, Ppia and RNApolII as stably expressed. Comparison of data normalised with the geometric average obtained from combinations of any three of these genes showed no significant differences, indicating that any combination of these genes is valid. Conclusion: The geometric average of any three of Hprt1, Ef1 a, Ppia and RNApolII is suitable for normalisation of gene expression data in primary myogenic cultures from Atlantic salmon.

Targeted rapid amplification of cDNA ends (T-RACE)-an improved RACE reaction through degradation of non-target sequences

Bower, Neil I. — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Amplification of the 5' ends of cDNA, although simple in theory, can often be difficult to achieve. We describe a novel method for the specific amplification of cDNA ends. An oligo-dT adapter incorporating a dUTP-containing PCR primer primes first-strand cDNA synthesis incorporating dUTP. Using the Cap finder approach, another distinct dUTP containing adapter is added to the 3' end of the newly synthesized cDNA. Second-strand synthesis incorporating dUTP is achieved by PCR, using dUTP-containing primers complimentary to the adapter sequences incorporated in the cDNA ends. The double-stranded cDNA-containing dUTP serves as a universal template for the specific amplification of the 3' or 5' end of any gene. To amplify the ends of cDNA, asymmetric PCR is performed using a single gene-specific primer and standard dNTPs. The asymmetric PCR product is purified and non-target transcripts containing dUTP degraded by Uracil DNA glycosylase, leaving only those transcripts produced during the asymmetric PCR. Subsequent PCR using a nested gene-specific primer and the 3' or 5' T-RACE primer results in specific amplification of cDNA ends. This method can be used to specifically amplify the 3' and 5' ends of numerous cDNAs from a single cDNA synthesis reaction.

Complex Region Spatial Smoother (CReSS)

Scott Hayward, Lindesay Alexandra Sarah — Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Conventional smoothing over complicated coastal and island regions may result in errors across boundaries, due to the use of Euclidean distances to represent inter-point similarity. The new Complex Region Spatial Smoother (CReSS) method presented here, uses estimated geodesic distances, model averaging and a local radial basis function to provide improved smoothing over complex domains. CReSS is compared, via simulation, to recent related smoothing techniques, Thin Plate Splines (TPS, Harder and Desmarais, 1972), geodesic low rank TPS [Wang and Ranalli, 2007] and the Soap film smoother [Wood et al., 2008]. The GLTPS method cannot be used in areas with islands and SOAP can be hard to parameterize. CReSS is comparable with, if not better than, all considered methods on a range of simulations. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Comparing pre- and post-construction distributions of long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis in and around the Nysted offshore wind farm, Denmark : a quasi-designed experiment accounting for imperfect detection, local surface features and autocorrelation

Petersen, Ib Krag — Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: We report a novel technique to model abundance patterns of wintering seaducks in relation to the construction of an offshore wind farm (OWF) based on seven years of aerial survey transect data. Distance sampling was used to estimate seaduck densities adjusted for covariates affecting detection probabilities. A generalized additive model (GAM) generated seaduck densities in sampling units in relation to spatially explicit covariates, using bootstrapping to account for uncertainties in both processes. Generalized estimating equations generated precision measures for the GAM robust to spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Comparison of pre- and post-construction model generated surfaces showed significant reductions in long-tailed duck numbers only within the OWF (despite the fact that the model was uninformed about the OWF location), although the absolute numbers involved were trivial in a flyway population context. This method provides quantification of distributional effects on organisms over a gradient in space and time that offers an alternative to Before-After/Control-Impact designs in environmental impact assessment.

A first survey of the global population size and distribution of the Scottish Crossbill Loxia scotica

Summers, Ron W — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: A survey of Scottish Crossbills Loxia scotica was carried out in 3,506 km2 of conifer woodland in northern Scotland during January to April 2008 to provide the first estimate of the global population size for this endemic bird. Population estimates were also made for Common Crossbills L. curvirostra and Parrot Crossbills L. pytyopsittacus within this range. Crossbills were lured to systematically selected survey points for counting, sexing and recording their calls for later call-type (species) identification from sonograms. Crossbills were located at 451 of the 852 survey points, and adequate tape-recordings made at 387 of these. The Scottish Crossbill had a disjunct distribution, occurring largely within the eastern part of the study area, but also in the northwest. Common Crossbills had a mainly westerly distribution. The population size of postjuvenile Scottish Crossbills was estimated as 13,600 (95%C.I. 8,130–22,700), which will approximate to 6,800 (4,065–11,350) pairs. Common Crossbills were more abundant within this range (27,100, 95% C.I. 14,700–38,400) and Parrot Crossbills rare (about 100). The sex ratio was not significantly different from parity for Scottish Crossbills. The modal number at survey points was two but numbers were larger in January than later in the survey. The numbers and distribution of all crossbill species are likely to vary between years, depending upon the size of the cone crops of the different conifers: all were coning in 2008. Common Crossbill and Parrot Crossbill numbers will also be affected by irruptions from continental Europe. A monitoring scheme is required to detect any population trend, and further work on their habitat requirement (e.g. conifer selection at different seasons) is needed to inform habitat management of native and planted conifer forests to ensure a secure future for this endemic bird.

Double-observer line transect methods : levels of independence

Buckland, Stephen T. — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Double-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.

Density estimation implications of increasing ambient noise on beaked whale click detection and classification

Marques, Tiago Andre Lamas Oliveira — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Acoustic based density estimates are being increasingly used. Usually density estimation methods require one to evaluate the eﬀective survey area of the acoustic sensors, or equivalently estimate the mean detection probability of detecting the animals or cues of interest. This is often done based on an estimated detection function, the probability of detecting an object of interest as a function of covariates, usually distance and additional covariates. If the actual survey data and the data used to estimate a detection function are not collected simultaneously, as in Marques et al. (2009), the estimated detection function might not correspond to the detection process that generated the survey data. This would lead to biaseddensity estimates. Here we evaluate the inﬂuence of ambient noise in the detection and classiﬁcation of beaked whale clicks at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) hydrophones, to assess if the density estimates reported in Marques et al. (2009) might have been biased. To do so we contaminated a data set with increasing levels of ambient noise, and then estimated the detection function accounting for the noise level as an additional covariate. The results obtained suggest that for the particular results obtained at AUTEC’s deep water hydrophones the inﬂuence of ambient noise on the beaked whale’s click detection probability might have been minor, and hence unlikely to have had an impact on density estimates. However, we do not exclude the possibility that the results could be diﬀerent under other scenarios.

Estimating gopher tortoise abundance through design-based and model-based methods

Bal, Payal — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Gopher tortoises are a small land tortoise that inhabit south-eastern United States and are listed as threatened due to habitat loss. They are rather hard to survey, since they occur at low density. This project was based on extensive data from systematic line transect surveys for gopher tortoises at Fort Gordon and Ichauway in Georgia, USA, collected by the Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Centre. Despite excellent survey designs and field methods, the resulting estimates of abundance have shown high variance. Alternate methods for abundance and variance estimation that could lower the variance were explored. Both, design-based and model-based approaches to abundance estimation were attempted. For the design-based approach, abundance and associated variance estimates were obtained using the CDS/MCDS analysis engines in DISTANCE (Version 6.0). The cluster size estimation technique to scale burrow to tortoise abundance was used. Variance of the encounter rate component, that usually dominates the overall variance estimate for line transect data was originally calculated using the R2 estimator (used in DISTANCE 6.0 as the default) that is suited for random line placement. This was compared against encounter rate variance estimators developed for systematic designs (Fewster et al. 2009). As expected, the latter produced substantially lower variance estimates. For the model-based approach, abundance as well as occupancy was modelled by specifying GAMs using environmental covariates (where available) for the study sites. Resulting predictions were subjected to non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping for variance estimation. Parametric bootstrap suited to the model-based approach did not perform well because the underlying GAMs specified for burrow occupancy were found to be inaccurate. Due to the excellent design of the survey and the lack of sufficient information to model burrow occupancy accurately, design-based methods appeared to do better than the model-based methods for the data. The final estimates for both the study sites and the surface maps (only for Ichauway) produced need to be reviewed and must be considered in conjunction with the accompanying uncertainty.

Bayesian modelling of integrated data and its application to seabird populations

Reynolds, Toby J. — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Integrated data analyses are becoming increasingly popular in studies of wild animal populations where two or more separate sources of data contain information about common parameters. Here we develop an integrated population model using abundance and demographic data from a study of common guillemots (Uria aalge) on the Isle of May, southeast Scotland. A state-space model for the count data is supplemented by three demographic time series (productivity and two mark-recapture-recovery (MRR)), enabling the estimation of prebreeder emigration rate - a parameter for which there is no direct observational data, and which is unidentifiable in the separate analysis of MRR data. A Bayesian approach using MCMC provides a flexible and powerful analysis framework. This model is extended to provide predictions of future population trajectories. Adopting random effects models for the survival and productivity parameters, we implement the MCMC algorithm to obtain a posterior sample of the underlying process means and variances (and population sizes) within the study period. Given this sample, we predict future demographic parameters, which in turn allows us to predict future population sizes and obtain the corresponding posterior distribution. Under the assumption that recent, unfavourable conditions persist in the future, we obtain a posterior probability of 70% that there is a population decline of >25% over a 10-year period. Lastly, using MRR data we test for spatial, temporal and age-related correlations in guillemot survival among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in nonbreeding distribution. We show that survival is highly correlated over time for colonies/age classes sharing wintering areas, and essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving multi-population dynamics of the species.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

Thomas, Len — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: 1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial pre-requisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modelling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: CDS (conventional distance sampling), which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; MCDS (multiple covariate distance sampling), which allows covariates in addition to distance; and MRDS (mark-recapture distance sampling), which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the DSM (density surface modelling) analysis engine for spatial and habitat modelling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of-the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Comparison of aerial survey methods for estimating abundance of common scoters

Rexstad, Eric — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: During the month of March, four survey methods were applied to the SPA at Camarthen Bay. WWT staff carried out visual aerial surveys using distance sampling methodology (Camphuysen et al. 2004). Visual shore-based counts were also conducted. Distance measures were not consistently taken by these observers, nor was survey effort equal among the four surveys. Because they are intended to be complete counts without replication within a day, it is not possible to estimate precision of these counts, or assess bias, making comparison with other survey results difficult. Digital still data were collected and processed by APEM Ltd. Digital video imagery were captured and processed by HiDef. This report revision includes 29 March survey data from HiDef not available at the time of the release of our 17 July report.

The importance of analysis method for breeding bird survey population trend estimates

Thomas, Len — Mon, 01 Jan 1996 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Population trends from the Breeding Bird Survey are widely used to focus conservation efforts on species thought to be in decline and to test preliminary hypotheses regarding the causes of these declines. A number of statistical methods have been used to estimate population trends, but there is no consensus us to which is the most reliable. We quantified differences in trend estimates or different analysis methods applied to the same subset of Breeding Bird Survey data. We estimated trends for 115 species in British Columbia using three analysis methods: U.S. National Biological Service route regression, Canadian Wildlife Service route regression, and nonparametric rank-trends analysis. Overall, the number of species estimated to be declining was similar among the three methods, but the number of statistically significant declines was not similar (15, 8, and 29 respectively). In addition, many differences existed among methods in the trend estimates assigned to individual species. Comparing the two route regression methods, Canadian Wildlife Service estimates had a greater absolute magnitude on average than those of the U.S. National Biological Service method. U.S. National Biological Service estimates were on average more positive than the Canadian Wildlife Service estimates when the respective agency's data selection criteria were applied separately. These results imply that our ability to detect population declines and to prioritize species of conservation concern depend strongly upon the analysis method used. This highlights the need for further research to determine how best to accurately estimate trends from the data. We suggest a method for evaluating the performance of the analysis methods by using simulated Breeding Bird Survey data.

Retrospective power analysis

Thomas, Len — Wed, 01 Jan 1997 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Many papers have appeared in the recent biological literature encouraging us to incorporate statistical power analysis into our hypothesis testing protocol (Peterman 1990; Fairweather 1991; Muller & Benignus 1992; Taylor & Gerrodette 1993; Searcy-Bernal 1994; Thomas & Juanes 1996). The importance of doing a power analysis before beginning a study (prospective power analysis) is universally accepted: such analyses help us to decide how many samples are required to have a good chance of getting unambiguous results. In contrast, the role of power analysis after the data are collected and analyzed (retrospective power analysis) is controversial, as is evidenced by the papers of Reed and Blaustein (1995) and Hayes and Steidl (1997). The controversy is over the use of information from the sample data in retrospective power calculations. As I will show, the type of information used has fundamental implications for the value of such analyses. I compare the approaches to calculating retrospective power, noting the strengths and weaknesses of each, and make general recommendations as to how and when retrospective power analyses should be conducted. Description: The pdf contains the article; the ASCII file contains SAS code to calculate power and confidence limits for simple linear regression, as detailed in the article appendix.

A unified framework for modelling wildlife population dynamics

Thomas, Len — Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state–space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British Grey Seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model. Description: The pdf document contains the full article text; program code (in S-PLUS 6.1) for the example analysis is in the three text files; data is available from the Sea Mammal Research Unit (http://www.smru.st-and.ac.uk)

WinBUGS for population ecologists: Bayesian modeling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.

Giminez, O — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The computer package WinBUGS is introduced. We first give a brief introduction to Bayesian theory and its implementation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. We then present three case studies showing how WinBUGS can be used when classical theory is difficult to implement. The first example uses data on white storks from Baden Württemberg, Germany, to demonstrate the use of mark-recapture models to estimate survival, and also how to cope with unexplained variance through random effects. Recent advances in methodology and also the WinBUGS software allow us to introduce (i) a flexible way of incorporating covariates using spline smoothing and (ii) a method to deal with missing values in covariates. The second example shows how to estimate population density while accounting for detectability, using distance sampling methods applied to a test dataset collected on a known population of wooden stakes. Finally, the third case study involves the use of state-space models of wildlife population dynamics to make inferences about density dependence in a North American duck species. Reversible Jump MCMC is used to calculate the probability of various candidate models. For all examples, data and WinBUGS code are provided. Description: This paper was presented at the EURING 2007 Technical Meeting, January 14-21, Dunedin, New Zealand. It has been submitted for publication in the conference proceedings, which will appear as a special issue of Environmental and Ecological Statistics.; The zip file contains accompanying code in WinBUGS

Designing a shipboard line transect survey to estimate cetacean abundance off the Azores Archipelago, Portugal

Faustino, Cláudia Estevinho Santos — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Management schemes dedicated to the conservation of wildlife populations rely on the effective monitoring of population size, and this requires the accurate and precise estimation of abundance. The accuracy and precision of estimates are determined to a large extent by the survey design. Line transect surveys are commonly applied to wildlife population assessments in which the primary purpose of a survey design is to ensure that the critical distance sampling assumptions are met. Little information is available regarding cetacean abundance in the Archipelago of the Azores (Portugal). This study aims to design a line transect shipboard survey that allows the collection of data required to provide abundance estimates for such species. Several aspects must be taken into consideration when designing a survey to estimate cetacean abundance. This is an iterative process, and there is a constant trade off between the logistic constraints and the desired statistical robustness. Information on this process is provided to aid policy makers and environmental managers, such as the criteria used for the choices made when defining the elements of a survey design. Three survey effort scenarios are provided to illustrate the range of possibilities between statistical robustness and logistic/ management restrictions. A survey is designed for the more economical scenario (L=5000Km), although the second scenario is the one recommended to be implemented (L=17,600Km) given it provides robust estimates of abundance (CV<=0.2). Description: Revised version November 2008. MRes in Marine Mammal Science

Behavioural changes of a long-ranging diver in response to oceanographic conditions

Photopoulos, Theoni — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: The development of an animal-borne instrument that can record oceanographic measurements (CTD-SRDL) has enabled the collection of oceanographic data at a scale relevant to the counterpart behavioural data, both in time and 3-dimensional space. This has advanced the potential for studies of the behaviour of deep-diving marine animals and the way in which they respond to their environment, yet the nature of the data delivered by CTD-SRDLs presents substantial analytical challenges and places constraints on its biological interpretation. Behavioural and environmental data, collected using CTD-SRDLs deployed on southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from the South Georgia subpopulation in 2004 and 2005, are analysed for 13 females and 4 males (21,015 dives). Compressed dive profiles are used to classify individual dives into six distinct types based on their 2-dimensional time-depth characteristics using random forest classification. The relationship between dive type and environmental variables, derived from oceanographic data recorded on board the animals, is investigated in the context of regression analysis, employing a multinomial model, as well as independently fitted Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM) for each dive type. Regression is not found to be an appropriate method for analysing abstracted behavioural dive data, and other methods are suggested. We show that functional specializations can be manifested within a dive type, using square bottom dives (SQ) as an example. The usefulness of dive classification is discussed in the context of behavioural interpretation, and validity of the ecological functions attached to each class. Preliminary analyses are important drivers of further research into improving the interpretability of abstracted behavioural data, and developing efficient, standardized methods for widespread application to this type of data, which is obtained in abundance via satellite telemetry. Description: BL 5019 Research project. MRes Environmental Biology

Estimating the distribution of demersal fishing effort from VMS data using hidden Markov models.

Borchers, David L. — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000461/

Incorporating Model Uncertainty into the Sequential Importance Sampling Framework using a Model Averaging Approach, or Trans-Dimensional Sequential Importance Sampling.

Lynam, Christopher — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: A sequential Bayesian Monte Carlo approach is proposed in which model space can be explored during the Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS, a.k.a. Particle Filtering) fitting process. The algorithm allows model space to be explored while filtering forwards through time and takes a similar approach to Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) strategies, whereby parameters jump into and out of the model structure. Possible efficiency gains of the new Trans-Dimensional SIS routine are discussed and the approach is considered most beneficial when the exploration of large model space in the SIS framework is desired. Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000463/

Accommodating availability bias on line transect surveys using hidden Markov models.

Borchers, David L. — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Maximum likelihood methods are developed which accommodate intermittent animal availability of animals on line transect surveys. Existing 'availability bias' correction methods are shown to be inadequate in general. The new method is applied to an aerial survey of whales, using a hidden Markov model to characterise the availability process. Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000458/

Investigation of towed hydrophone monitoring power for harbour porpoise on the SCANS II survey.

Borchers, David L. — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: We investigate the power of harbour porpoise monitoring programmes which use an index of relative abundance to detect change. Power depends on the variability in the constant of proportionality relating the index to absolute abundance, as well as on the variability in the index given this constant. We estimate both from the SCANS II data and from European Seabirds at Sea (ESAS) data. Estimates of the coefficient of variation of the constant of proportionality are large and this results in very low power. Because these estimates may be unrealistically large for well-designed monitoring programs, we feel it is inappropriate to draw strong conclusions about the power of future monitoring programmes based on them. ESAS surveys are found to be more efficient in terms of effort required to achieve given power, than the SCANS II passive acoustic surveys. However, the comparison may not be a fair one, for the following reason. The estimated CV of the constant of proportionality is obtained from the ratio of the index of density and the corresponding SCANS II absolute density estimate; the ESAS index is likely to be more highly correlated with the SCANS II estimate than the acoustic index, because like the SCANS II estimate, it is based on visual detections. In addition, standardization of the passive acoustic survey methods could yield substantially higher efficiency. We provide a table giving power as a function of the CV of the constant of proportionality and the CV of the index, given this constant - this can be used to compare methods if reliable estimates of these CVs are available. Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000457/

Methods for estimating sperm whale abundance from passive acoustic line transect surveys.

Borchers, David L. — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000456/

Point and interval estimates of abundance using multiple covariate distance sampling: an example using great bustards.

Rexstad, Eric — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Description of computations to produce sex-specific estimates of density from a multiple-covariate distance sampling analysis. Program Distance 5.0 has limited capacity to bootstrap certain types of analytical situations (e.g., cluster size as a covariate). Herein I describe steps and code to perform an analysis of this sort. Possible ways to adapt this code for similar analyses are described. Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000447/; The pdf file contains the tech report, the ASCII (.R) file contains the accompanying R code.

Non-uniform coverage estimators for distance sampling.

Rexstad, Eric — Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Allocation of sampling effort in the context of distance sampling is considered. Specifically, allocation of effort in proportion to portions of the survey region that likely contain high concentrations of animals are explored. The probability of a portion of the survey region being included in the sample is proportional to the estimated number of animals in that portion. These estimated numbers of animals may be derived from a density surface model. This results in unequal coverage probability, and a Horvitz- Thompson like estimator can be used to estimate population abundance. The properties of this estimator is explored here via simulation. The benefits, measured in terms of increased precision over traditional equal coverage probability estimators, are meagre, and largely manifested when the underlying population distribution is a smooth gradient. Description: Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000445/

Acoustic and ecological investigations into predator-prey interactions between Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and seal and bird predators

Cox, Martin James — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: 1. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) form aggregations known as swarms that vary greatly in size and density. Six acoustic surveys were conducted as part of multidisciplinary studies at two study sites, the western and eastern core boxes (WCB and ECB), during the 1997, 1998 and 1999 austral summers, at South Georgia. A quantitative, automated, image processing algorithm was used to identify swarms, and calculate swarm descriptors, or metrics. In contrast to acoustic surveys of aggregations of other pelagic species, a strong correlation (r = 0.88, p = 0.02, 95% C.I.= 0.24 to 0.99) between the number of krill swarms and the mean areal krill density [rho.hat] was found. Multivariate analysis was used to partition swarms into three types, based on contrasting morphological and internal krill density parameters. Swarm types were distributed differently between inter-surveys and between on and off-shelf regions. This swarm type variation has implications for krill predators, by causing spatial heterogeneity in swarm detectability, suggesting that for optimal foraging to occur, predators must engage in some sort of adaptive foraging strategy. 2. Krill predator-prey interactions were found to occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales, in a nested, or hierarchical structure. At the largest inter-survey scale, an index of variability, I, was developed to compare variation in survey-scale predator sightings, sea temperature and [rho.hat]. Using I and a two-way ANOVA, core box, rather than year, was found to be a more important factor in determining species distribution. The absence of Blue-petrels (Halobaena caerulea) and the elevated number of Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) suggest that 1998 was a characterised by colder than average water surrounding South Georgia, and a high [rho.hat] in the ECB. At the smaller, intra-survey scales (<80 km, <5 day), the characteristic scale (distances in which predator group size, or krill density were similar, L_s) were determined. For krill and predators L_s varied by survey and the L_s of krill also varied by depth within a survey. Overlap in L_s were stronger between predator species than between a predator species and krill, indicating predators were taking foraging cues from the activity of predators, rather than from the underlying krill distribution. No relationship was found between swarm characteristics and predator activity, suggesting either there is no relationship between krill swarms and predators, or that the predator and acoustic observation techniques may not be appropriate to detect such a relationship. 3. To overcome the 2-D sampling limitations of conventional echosounders, a multibeam echosounder (MBE) observed entire swarms in three-dimensions. Swarms found in the nearshore environment of Livingston Island situated in the South Shetland Islands, exhibited only a narrow range of surface area to volume ratios or roughnesses (R = 3.3, CV = 0.23), suggesting that krill adopt a consistent group behaviour to maintain swarm shape. Generalized additive models (GAM) suggested that the presence of air-breathing predators influenced the shape of a krill swarm (R decreased in the presence of predators: the swarm became more spherical). A 2D distance sampling framework was used to estimate the abundance, N, and associated variance of krill swarms. This technique took into account angular and range detectability (half-normal, [sigma_r.hat] = 365.00 m, CV = 0.16) and determined the vertical distribution of krill swarms to be best approximated by a beta-distribution ([alpha.hat] = 2.62, [CV.hat] = 0.19; [beta.hat] = 2.41, [CV.hat] = 0.15), giving the abundance of swarms in survey region as [N.hat] = 5,062 ([CV.hat] = 0.35). This research represents a substantial contribution to developing estimation of pelagic biomass using MBEs. 4. When using a single- or split-beam missing pings occur when the transmit or receive cycles are interrupted, often by aeration of the water column, under the echosounder transducer during rough weather. A thin-plate regression spline based approach was used to model the missing krill data, with knots chosen using a branch and bound algorithm. This method performs well for acoustic observations of krill swarms where data are tightly clustered and change rapidly. For these data the technique outperformed the standard MGCV GAM, and the technique is applicable for estimating acoustically derived biomass from line transect surveys.

Incorporating measurement error and density gradients in distance sampling surveys

Marques, Tiago Andre Lamas Oliveira — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Distance sampling is one of the most commonly used methods for estimating density and abundance. Conventional methods are based on the distances of detected animals from the center of point transects or the center line of line transects. These distances are used to model a detection function: the probability of detecting an animal, given its distance from the line or point. The probability of detecting an animal in the covered area is given by the mean value of the detection function with respect to the available distances to be detected. Given this probability, a Horvitz-Thompson- like estimator of abundance for the covered area follows, hence using a model-based framework. Inferences for the wider survey region are justified using the survey design. Conventional distance sampling methods are based on a set of assumptions. In this thesis I present results that extend distance sampling on two fronts. Firstly, estimators are derived for situations in which there is measurement error in the distances. These estimators use information about the measurement error in two ways: (1) a biased estimator based on the contaminated distances is multiplied by an appropriate correction factor, which is a function of the errors (PDF approach), and (2) cast into a likelihood framework that allows parameter estimation in the presence of measurement error (likelihood approach). Secondly, methods are developed that relax the conventional assumption that the distribution of animals is independent of distance from the lines or points (usually guaranteed by appropriate survey design). In particular, the new methods deal with the case where animal density gradients are caused by the use of non-random sampler allocation, for example transects placed along linear features such as roads or streams. This is dealt with separately for line and point transects, and at a later stage an approach for combining the two is presented. A considerable number of simulations and example analysis illustrate the performance of the proposed methods.

A Bayesian approach to modelling field data on multi-species predator prey-interactions

Asseburg, Christian — Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:00:00 GMT

Abstract: Multi-species functional response models are required to model the predation of generalist preda- tors, which consume more than one prey species. In chapter 2, a new model for the multi-species functional response is presented. This model can describe generalist predators that exhibit func- tional responses of Holling type II to some of their prey and of type III to other prey. In chapter 3, I review some of the theoretical distinctions between Bayesian and frequentist statistics and show how Bayesian statistics are particularly well-suited for the fitting of functional response models because uncertainty can be represented comprehensively. In chapters 4 and 5, the multi- species functional response model is fitted to field data on two generalist predators: the hen harrier Circus cyaneus and the harp seal Phoca groenlandica. I am not aware of any previous Bayesian model of the multi-species functional response that has been fitted to field data. The hen harrier's functional response fitted in chapter 4 is strongly sigmoidal to the densities of red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, but no type III shape was detected in the response to the two main prey species, field vole Microtus agrestis and meadow pipit Anthus pratensis. The impact of using Bayesian or frequentist models on the resulting functional response is discussed. In chapter 5, no functional response could be fitted to the data on harp seal predation. Possible reasons are discussed, including poor data quality or a lack of relevance of the available data for informing a behavioural functional response model. I conclude with a comparison of the role that functional responses play in behavioural, population and community ecology and emphasise the need for further research into unifying these different approaches to understanding predation with particular reference to predator movement. In an appendix, I evaluate the possibility of using a functional response for inferring the abun- dances of prey species from performance indicators of generalist predators feeding on these prey. I argue that this approach may be futile in general, because a generalist predator's energy intake does not depend on the density of any single of its prey, so that the possibly unknown densities of all prey need to be taken into account.