Mathematics & Statistics Research
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/859
2017-05-27T17:27:20ZBombs and flares at the surface and lower atmosphere of the Sun
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10741
A spectacular manifestation of solar activity is the appearance of transient brightenings in the far wings of the Hα line, known as Ellerman bombs (EBs). Recent observations obtained by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph have revealed another type of plasma "bombs" (UV bursts) with high temperatures of perhaps up to 8 ×104 K within the cooler lower solar atmosphere. Realistic numerical modeling showing such events is needed to explain their nature. Here, we report on 3D radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetic flux emergence in the solar atmosphere. We find that ubiquitous reconnection between emerging bipolar magnetic fields can trigger EBs in the photosphere, UV bursts in the mid/low chromosphere and small (nano-/micro-) flares (106 K) in the upper chromosphere. These results provide new insights into the emergence and build up of the coronal magnetic field and the dynamics and heating of the solar surface and lower atmosphere.
This research was supported by the Research Council of Norway and by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC Grant agreement no. 291058.
2017-04-10T00:00:00ZHansteen, V. H.Archontis, V.Pereira, T. M. D.Carlsson, M.Rouppe van der Voort, L.Leenaarts, J.A spectacular manifestation of solar activity is the appearance of transient brightenings in the far wings of the Hα line, known as Ellerman bombs (EBs). Recent observations obtained by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph have revealed another type of plasma "bombs" (UV bursts) with high temperatures of perhaps up to 8 ×104 K within the cooler lower solar atmosphere. Realistic numerical modeling showing such events is needed to explain their nature. Here, we report on 3D radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetic flux emergence in the solar atmosphere. We find that ubiquitous reconnection between emerging bipolar magnetic fields can trigger EBs in the photosphere, UV bursts in the mid/low chromosphere and small (nano-/micro-) flares (106 K) in the upper chromosphere. These results provide new insights into the emergence and build up of the coronal magnetic field and the dynamics and heating of the solar surface and lower atmosphere.Foraging behaviour, swimming performance and malformations of early stages of commercially important fishes under ocean acidification and warming
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10703
Early life stages of many marine organisms are being challenged by climate change, but little is known about their capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions. Here we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses of larvae of two commercially important teleost fishes, Sparus aurata (gilthead seabream) and Argyrosomus regius (meagre), after exposure to future predictions of ocean warming (+4 °C) and acidification (ΔpH = 0.5). The combined effect of warming and hypercapnia elicited a decrease in the hatching success (by 26.4 and 14.3 % for S. aurata and A. regius, respectively) and larval survival (by half) in both species. The length for newly-hatched larvae was not significantly affected, but a significant effect of hypercapnia was found on larval growth. However, while S. aurata growth was reduced (24.8–36.4 % lower), A. regius growth slightly increased (3.2–12.9 % higher) under such condition. Under acidification, larvae of both species spent less time swimming, and displayed reduced attack and capture rates of prey. The impact of warming on these behavioural traits was opposite but less evident. While not studied in A. regius, the incidence of body malformations in S. aurata larvae increased significantly (more than tripled) under warmer and hypercapnic conditions. These morphological impairments and behavioural changes are expected to affect larval performance and recruitment success, and further influence the abundance of fish stocks and the population structure of these commercially important fish species. However, given the pace of ocean climate change, it is important not to forget that species may have the opportunity to acclimate and adapt.
The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) supported this study through doctoral grants to M.S.P. and G.D. (SFRH/BD/81928/2011 and SFRH/BD/73205/2010, respectively), a post-doc grant to F.F. (SFRH/BPD/79038/2011), and project grants to P.P.F. (AQUACOR-PROMAR31-03-05FEP-003) and R.R. (PTDC/MAR/0908066/2008 and PTDC/AAGGLO/3342/2012).
2016-08-01T00:00:00ZPimentel, Marta S.Faleiro, FilipaMarques, TiagoBispo, ReginaDionísio, GiselaFaria, Ana M.Machado, JorgePeck, Myron A.Pörtner, HansPousão-Ferreira, PedroGonçalves, Emanuel J.Rosa, RuiEarly life stages of many marine organisms are being challenged by climate change, but little is known about their capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions. Here we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses of larvae of two commercially important teleost fishes, Sparus aurata (gilthead seabream) and Argyrosomus regius (meagre), after exposure to future predictions of ocean warming (+4 °C) and acidification (ΔpH = 0.5). The combined effect of warming and hypercapnia elicited a decrease in the hatching success (by 26.4 and 14.3 % for S. aurata and A. regius, respectively) and larval survival (by half) in both species. The length for newly-hatched larvae was not significantly affected, but a significant effect of hypercapnia was found on larval growth. However, while S. aurata growth was reduced (24.8–36.4 % lower), A. regius growth slightly increased (3.2–12.9 % higher) under such condition. Under acidification, larvae of both species spent less time swimming, and displayed reduced attack and capture rates of prey. The impact of warming on these behavioural traits was opposite but less evident. While not studied in A. regius, the incidence of body malformations in S. aurata larvae increased significantly (more than tripled) under warmer and hypercapnic conditions. These morphological impairments and behavioural changes are expected to affect larval performance and recruitment success, and further influence the abundance of fish stocks and the population structure of these commercially important fish species. However, given the pace of ocean climate change, it is important not to forget that species may have the opportunity to acclimate and adapt.Elongation of flare ribbons
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10686
We present an analysis of the apparent elongation motion of flare ribbons along the polarity inversion line (PIL), as well as the shear of flare loops in several two-ribbon flares. Flare ribbons and loops spread along the PIL at a speed ranging from a few to a hundred km s-1. The shear measured from conjugate footpoints is consistent with the measurement from flare loops, and both show the decrease of shear toward a potential field as a flare evolves and ribbons and loops spread along the PIL. Flares exhibiting fast bidirectional elongation appear to have a strong shear, which may indicate a large magnetic guide field relative to the reconnection field in the coronal current sheet. We discuss how the analysis of ribbon motion could help infer properties in the corona where reconnection takes place.
J.Q., D.W.L., and P.A.C. gratefully acknowledge support by NSF SHINE collaborative grant AGS-1460059.
2017-03-20T00:00:00ZQiu, JiongLongcope, Dana W.Cassak, Paul A.Priest, Eric R.We present an analysis of the apparent elongation motion of flare ribbons along the polarity inversion line (PIL), as well as the shear of flare loops in several two-ribbon flares. Flare ribbons and loops spread along the PIL at a speed ranging from a few to a hundred km s-1. The shear measured from conjugate footpoints is consistent with the measurement from flare loops, and both show the decrease of shear toward a potential field as a flare evolves and ribbons and loops spread along the PIL. Flares exhibiting fast bidirectional elongation appear to have a strong shear, which may indicate a large magnetic guide field relative to the reconnection field in the coronal current sheet. We discuss how the analysis of ribbon motion could help infer properties in the corona where reconnection takes place.Extrapolating cetacean densities to quantitatively assess human impacts on populations in the high seas
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10682
As human activities expand beyond national jurisdictions to the high seas, there is increasing need to consider anthropogenic impacts to species that inhabit these waters. The current scarcity of scientific observations of cetaceans in the high seas impedes the assessment of population-level impacts of these activities. This study is directed towards an important management need in the high seas—the development of plausible density estimates to facilitate a quantitative assessment of anthropogenic impacts on cetacean populations in these waters. Our study region extends from a well-surveyed region within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone into a large region of the western North Atlantic sparsely surveyed for cetaceans. We modeled densities of 15 cetacean taxa using available line transect survey data and habitat covariates and extrapolated predictions to sparsely surveyed regions. We formulated models carefully to reduce the extent of extrapolation beyond covariate ranges, and constrained them to model simple and generalizable relationships. To evaluate confidence in the predictions, we performed several qualitative assessments, such as mapping where predictions were made outside sampled covariate ranges, and comparing them with maps of sightings from a variety of sources that could not be integrated into our models. Our study revealed a range of confidence levels for the model results depending on the taxon and geographic area, and highlights the need for additional surveying in environmentally distinct areas. Combined with their explicit confidence levels and necessary caution, our density estimates can inform a variety of management needs in the high seas, such as the quantification of potential cetacean interactions with military training exercises, shipping, fisheries, deep-sea mining, as well as delineation of areas of special biological significance in international waters. Our approach is generally applicable to other marine taxa and geographic regions for which management will be implemented but data are sparse.
Funding for this study came from the U.S. Fleet Forces Command (Cooperative Agreement N62470-13-2-8008), NASA (NNX08AK73G) and NOAA/NMFS (EE-133F-14-SE-3558).
2017-04-28T00:00:00ZMannocci, LauraRoberts, Jason J.Miller, David L.Halpin, Patrick N.As human activities expand beyond national jurisdictions to the high seas, there is increasing need to consider anthropogenic impacts to species that inhabit these waters. The current scarcity of scientific observations of cetaceans in the high seas impedes the assessment of population-level impacts of these activities. This study is directed towards an important management need in the high seas—the development of plausible density estimates to facilitate a quantitative assessment of anthropogenic impacts on cetacean populations in these waters. Our study region extends from a well-surveyed region within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone into a large region of the western North Atlantic sparsely surveyed for cetaceans. We modeled densities of 15 cetacean taxa using available line transect survey data and habitat covariates and extrapolated predictions to sparsely surveyed regions. We formulated models carefully to reduce the extent of extrapolation beyond covariate ranges, and constrained them to model simple and generalizable relationships. To evaluate confidence in the predictions, we performed several qualitative assessments, such as mapping where predictions were made outside sampled covariate ranges, and comparing them with maps of sightings from a variety of sources that could not be integrated into our models. Our study revealed a range of confidence levels for the model results depending on the taxon and geographic area, and highlights the need for additional surveying in environmentally distinct areas. Combined with their explicit confidence levels and necessary caution, our density estimates can inform a variety of management needs in the high seas, such as the quantification of potential cetacean interactions with military training exercises, shipping, fisheries, deep-sea mining, as well as delineation of areas of special biological significance in international waters. Our approach is generally applicable to other marine taxa and geographic regions for which management will be implemented but data are sparse.Estimating Key Largo woodrat abundance using spatially explicit capture–recapture and trapping point transects
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10625
The Key Largo woodrat (Neotoma floridana smalli) is an endangered rodent with a restricted geographic range and small population size. Establishing an efficient monitoring program of its abundance has been problematic; previous trapping designs have not worked well because the species is sparsely distributed. We compared Key Largo woodrat abundance estimates in Key Largo, Florida, USA, obtained using trapping point transects (TPT) and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) based on statistical properties, survey effort, practicality, and cost. Both methods combine aspects of distance sampling with capture–recapture, but TPT relies on radiotracking individuals to estimate detectability and SECR relies on repeat capture information to estimate densities of home ranges. Abundance estimates using TPT in the spring of 2007 and 2008 were 333 woodrats (CV = 0.46) and 696 (CV = 0.43), respectively. Abundance estimates using SECR in the spring, summer, and winter of 2007 were 97 (CV = 0.31), 334 (CV = 0.26), and 433 (CV = 0.20) animals, respectively. Trapping point transects used approximately 960 person-hours and 1,010 trap-nights/season. Spatially explicit capture–recapture used approximately 500 person-hours and 6,468 trap-nights/season. Significant time was saved in the SECR survey by setting large numbers of traps close together, minimizing time walking between traps. Trapping point transects were practical to implement in the field, and valuable auxiliary information on Key Largo woodrat behavior was obtained via radiocollaring. In this particular study, detectability of the woodrat using TPT was very low and consequently the SECR method was more efficient. Both methods require a substantial investment in survey effort to detect any change in abundance because of large uncertainty in estimates.
JMP was funded by Disney's Animal Programs, the US Fish and Wildlife Service and University of St Andrews.
2016-04-17T00:00:00ZPotts, Joanne MarieBuckland, Stephen TerrenceThomas, LenSavage, AnneThe Key Largo woodrat (Neotoma floridana smalli) is an endangered rodent with a restricted geographic range and small population size. Establishing an efficient monitoring program of its abundance has been problematic; previous trapping designs have not worked well because the species is sparsely distributed. We compared Key Largo woodrat abundance estimates in Key Largo, Florida, USA, obtained using trapping point transects (TPT) and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) based on statistical properties, survey effort, practicality, and cost. Both methods combine aspects of distance sampling with capture–recapture, but TPT relies on radiotracking individuals to estimate detectability and SECR relies on repeat capture information to estimate densities of home ranges. Abundance estimates using TPT in the spring of 2007 and 2008 were 333 woodrats (CV = 0.46) and 696 (CV = 0.43), respectively. Abundance estimates using SECR in the spring, summer, and winter of 2007 were 97 (CV = 0.31), 334 (CV = 0.26), and 433 (CV = 0.20) animals, respectively. Trapping point transects used approximately 960 person-hours and 1,010 trap-nights/season. Spatially explicit capture–recapture used approximately 500 person-hours and 6,468 trap-nights/season. Significant time was saved in the SECR survey by setting large numbers of traps close together, minimizing time walking between traps. Trapping point transects were practical to implement in the field, and valuable auxiliary information on Key Largo woodrat behavior was obtained via radiocollaring. In this particular study, detectability of the woodrat using TPT was very low and consequently the SECR method was more efficient. Both methods require a substantial investment in survey effort to detect any change in abundance because of large uncertainty in estimates.Late summer distribution and abundance of ice-associated whales in the Norwegian High Arctic
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10595
The Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, and resultant sea ice losses represent a serious threat to ice-associated species in the region. This study explored the distribution and abundance of the 3 Arctic resident whale species: narwhals, bowhead and white whales, in the marginal ice zone and into the sea ice north of the Svalbard Archipelago. Line-transect surveys were conducted using a combination of helicopter-based and ship-based efforts in August 2015. Twenty-six sightings, involving 27 bowhead whales and 58 narwhals, occurred along the helicopter transects, while no whales were recorded along ship transects. No white whales were observed during these surveys. After correcting for surface availability, distance sampling produced abundance estimates of 343 (CV = 0.488) bowhead whales and 837 (CV = 0.501) narwhals within the 52 919 km(2) study area. Bowhead whales were predominantly seen close to the ice-edge, whereas narwhals were located deeper into the ice. To contextualize these results within the broader Svalbard cetacean community, all whale sightings from the Norwegian Polar Institute's Svalbard Marine Mammal Sighting Data Base, from the period of the survey, were mapped to compare general distributions. These opportunistic sightings included numerous cetacean species, especially seasonally occurring ones. However, white whales dominated in terms of the numbers of individuals reported. Our results suggest little spatial overlap between seasonally occurring whales and the 3 Arctic resident whales. Bowhead whales and narwhals were tightly associated with sea ice, and white whales were tightly coastal. In contrast, the seasonally occurring species were found over the shelf and along its edges.
This study was financed by the Norwegian Research Council ICE whales grant (No. 244488/E10), The Foreign Ministry of Norway (Norwegian-Russian programme), WWF Sweden and the Norwegian Polar Institute. T.A.M. was supported in part by CEAUL (funded by FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UID/MAT/00006/2013).
2017-02-07T00:00:00ZVacquié-Garcia, JadeLydersen, ChristianMarques, Tiago A.Aars, JonAhonen, HeidiSkern-Mauritzen, MetteØien, NilsKovacs, Kit M.The Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, and resultant sea ice losses represent a serious threat to ice-associated species in the region. This study explored the distribution and abundance of the 3 Arctic resident whale species: narwhals, bowhead and white whales, in the marginal ice zone and into the sea ice north of the Svalbard Archipelago. Line-transect surveys were conducted using a combination of helicopter-based and ship-based efforts in August 2015. Twenty-six sightings, involving 27 bowhead whales and 58 narwhals, occurred along the helicopter transects, while no whales were recorded along ship transects. No white whales were observed during these surveys. After correcting for surface availability, distance sampling produced abundance estimates of 343 (CV = 0.488) bowhead whales and 837 (CV = 0.501) narwhals within the 52 919 km(2) study area. Bowhead whales were predominantly seen close to the ice-edge, whereas narwhals were located deeper into the ice. To contextualize these results within the broader Svalbard cetacean community, all whale sightings from the Norwegian Polar Institute's Svalbard Marine Mammal Sighting Data Base, from the period of the survey, were mapped to compare general distributions. These opportunistic sightings included numerous cetacean species, especially seasonally occurring ones. However, white whales dominated in terms of the numbers of individuals reported. Our results suggest little spatial overlap between seasonally occurring whales and the 3 Arctic resident whales. Bowhead whales and narwhals were tightly associated with sea ice, and white whales were tightly coastal. In contrast, the seasonally occurring species were found over the shelf and along its edges.Assigning stranded bottlenose dolphins to source stocks using stable isotope ratios following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10588
The potential for stranded dolphins to serve as a tool for monitoring free-ranging populations would be enhanced if their stocks of origin were known. We used stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur from skin to assign stranded bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus to different habitats, as a proxy for stocks (demographically independent populations), following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Model results from biopsy samples collected from dolphins from known habitats (n = 205) resulted in an 80.5% probability of correct assignment. These results were applied to data from stranded dolphins (n = 217), resulting in predicted assignment probabilities of 0.473, 0.172, and 0.355 to Estuarine, Barrier Island (BI), and Coastal stocks, respectively. Differences were found west and east of the Mississippi River, with more Coastal dolphins stranding in western Louisiana and more Estuarine dolphins stranding in Mississippi. Within the Estuarine East Stock, 2 groups were identified, one predominantly associated with Mississippi and Alabama estuaries and another with western Florida. δ15N values were higher in stranded samples for both Estuarine and BI stocks, potentially indicating nutritional stress. High probabilities of correct assignment of the biopsy samples indicate predictable variation in stable isotopes and fidelity to habitat. The power of δ34S to discriminate habitats relative to salinity was essential. Stable isotopes may provide guidance regarding where additional testing is warranted to confirm demographic independence and aid in determining the source habitat of stranded dolphins, thus increasing the value of biological data collected from stranded individuals.
2017-01-31T00:00:00ZHohn, A. A.Thomas, L.Carmichael, R. H.Litz, J.Clemons-Chevis, C.Shippee, S. F.Sinclair, C.Smith, S.Speakman, T. R.Tumlin, M. C.Zolman, E. S.The potential for stranded dolphins to serve as a tool for monitoring free-ranging populations would be enhanced if their stocks of origin were known. We used stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur from skin to assign stranded bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus to different habitats, as a proxy for stocks (demographically independent populations), following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Model results from biopsy samples collected from dolphins from known habitats (n = 205) resulted in an 80.5% probability of correct assignment. These results were applied to data from stranded dolphins (n = 217), resulting in predicted assignment probabilities of 0.473, 0.172, and 0.355 to Estuarine, Barrier Island (BI), and Coastal stocks, respectively. Differences were found west and east of the Mississippi River, with more Coastal dolphins stranding in western Louisiana and more Estuarine dolphins stranding in Mississippi. Within the Estuarine East Stock, 2 groups were identified, one predominantly associated with Mississippi and Alabama estuaries and another with western Florida. δ15N values were higher in stranded samples for both Estuarine and BI stocks, potentially indicating nutritional stress. High probabilities of correct assignment of the biopsy samples indicate predictable variation in stable isotopes and fidelity to habitat. The power of δ34S to discriminate habitats relative to salinity was essential. Stable isotopes may provide guidance regarding where additional testing is warranted to confirm demographic independence and aid in determining the source habitat of stranded dolphins, thus increasing the value of biological data collected from stranded individuals.Quantifying injury to common bottlenose dolphins from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using an age-, sex- and class-structured population model
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10587
Field studies documented increased mortality, adverse health effects, and reproductive failure in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. In order to determine the appropriate type and amount of restoration needed to compensate for losses, the overall extent of injuries to dolphins had to be quantified. Simply counting dead individuals does not consider long-term impacts to populations, such as the loss of future reproductive potential from mortality of females, or the chronic health effects that continue to compromise survival long after acute effects subside. Therefore, we constructed a sex- and agestructured model of population growth and included additional class structure to represent dolphins exposed and unexposed to DWH oil. The model was applied for multiple stocks to predict injured population trajectories using estimates of post-spill survival and reproductive rates. Injured trajectories were compared to baseline trajectories that were expected had the DWH incident not occurred. Two principal measures of injury were computed: (1) lost cetacean years (LCY); the difference between baseline and injured population size, summed over the modeled time period, and (2) time to recovery; the number of years for the stock to recover to within 95% of baseline. For the dolphin stock in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, the estimated LCY was substantial: 30 347 LCY (95% CI: 11 511 to 89 746). Estimated time to recovery was 39 yr (95% CI: 24 to 80). Similar recovery timelines were predicted for stocks in the Mississippi River Delta, Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay and the Northern Coastal Stock.
2017-01-31T00:00:00ZSchwacke, Lori H.Thomas, LenWells, Randall S.McFee, Wayne E.Hohn, Aleta A.Mullin, Keith D.Zolman, Eric S.Quigley, Brian M.Rowles, Teri K.Schwacke, John H.Field studies documented increased mortality, adverse health effects, and reproductive failure in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. In order to determine the appropriate type and amount of restoration needed to compensate for losses, the overall extent of injuries to dolphins had to be quantified. Simply counting dead individuals does not consider long-term impacts to populations, such as the loss of future reproductive potential from mortality of females, or the chronic health effects that continue to compromise survival long after acute effects subside. Therefore, we constructed a sex- and agestructured model of population growth and included additional class structure to represent dolphins exposed and unexposed to DWH oil. The model was applied for multiple stocks to predict injured population trajectories using estimates of post-spill survival and reproductive rates. Injured trajectories were compared to baseline trajectories that were expected had the DWH incident not occurred. Two principal measures of injury were computed: (1) lost cetacean years (LCY); the difference between baseline and injured population size, summed over the modeled time period, and (2) time to recovery; the number of years for the stock to recover to within 95% of baseline. For the dolphin stock in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, the estimated LCY was substantial: 30 347 LCY (95% CI: 11 511 to 89 746). Estimated time to recovery was 39 yr (95% CI: 24 to 80). Similar recovery timelines were predicted for stocks in the Mississippi River Delta, Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay and the Northern Coastal Stock.Where were they from? Modelling the source stock of dolphins stranded after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using genetic and stable isotope data
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10586
Understanding the source stock of common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus that stranded in the northern Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill was essential to accurately quantify injury and apportion individuals to the appropriate stock. The aim of this study, part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA), was to estimate the proportion of the 932 recorded strandings between May 2010 and June 2014 that came from coastal versus bay, sound and estuary (BSE) stocks. Four sources of relevant information were available on overlapping subsets totaling 336 (39%) of the strandings: genetic stock assignment, stable isotope ratios, photo-ID and individual genetic-ID. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model for combining these sources that weighted each data source for each stranding according to a measure of estimated precision: the effective sample size (ESS). The photo- and genetic-ID data were limited and considered to potentially introduce biases, so these data sources were excluded from analyses used in the NRDA. Estimates were calculated separately in 3 regions: East (of the Mississippi outflow), West (of the Mississippi outflow through Vermilion Bay, Louisiana) and Western Louisiana (west of Vermilion Bay to the Texas-Louisiana border); the estimated proportions of coastal strandings were, respectively 0.215 (95% CI: 0.169-0.263), 0.016 (0.036-0.099) and 0.622 (0.487-0.803). This method represents a general approach for integrating multiple sources of information that have differing uncertainties.
2017-01-31T00:00:00ZThomas, L.Booth, C. G.Rosel, P. E.Hohn, A.Litz, J.Schwacke, L. H.Understanding the source stock of common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus that stranded in the northern Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill was essential to accurately quantify injury and apportion individuals to the appropriate stock. The aim of this study, part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA), was to estimate the proportion of the 932 recorded strandings between May 2010 and June 2014 that came from coastal versus bay, sound and estuary (BSE) stocks. Four sources of relevant information were available on overlapping subsets totaling 336 (39%) of the strandings: genetic stock assignment, stable isotope ratios, photo-ID and individual genetic-ID. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model for combining these sources that weighted each data source for each stranding according to a measure of estimated precision: the effective sample size (ESS). The photo- and genetic-ID data were limited and considered to potentially introduce biases, so these data sources were excluded from analyses used in the NRDA. Estimates were calculated separately in 3 regions: East (of the Mississippi outflow), West (of the Mississippi outflow through Vermilion Bay, Louisiana) and Western Louisiana (west of Vermilion Bay to the Texas-Louisiana border); the estimated proportions of coastal strandings were, respectively 0.215 (95% CI: 0.169-0.263), 0.016 (0.036-0.099) and 0.622 (0.487-0.803). This method represents a general approach for integrating multiple sources of information that have differing uncertainties.Survival, density, and abundance of common bottlenose dolphins in Barataria Bay (USA) following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10580
To assess potential impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, we conducted boat-based photo-identification surveys for common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA (~230 km2, located 167 km WNW of the spill center). Crews logged 838 h of survey effort along pre-defined routes on 10 occasions between late June 2010 and early May 2014. We applied a previously unpublished spatial version of the robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival and density. This model used photo locations to estimate density in the absence of study area boundaries and to separate mortality from permanent emigration. To estimate abundance, we applied density estimates to saltwater (salinity > ~8 ppt) areas of the bay where telemetry data suggested that dolphins reside. Annual dolphin survival varied between 0.80 and 0.85 (95% CIs varied from 0.77 to 0.90) over 3 yr following the Deepwater Horizon spill. In 2 non-oiled bays (in Florida and North Carolina), historic survival averages approximately 0.95. From June to November 2010, abundance increased from 1300 (95% CI ± ~130) to 3100 (95% CI ± ~400), then declined and remained between ~1600 and ~2400 individuals until spring 2013. In fall 2013 and spring 2014, abundance increased again to approximately 3100 individuals. Dolphin abundance prior to the spill was unknown, but we hypothesize that some dolphins moved out of the sampled area, probably northward into marshes, prior to initiation of our surveys in late June 2010, and later immigrated back into the sampled area.
2017-01-31T00:00:00ZMcDonald, Trent L.Hornsby, Fawn E.Speakman, Todd R.Zolman, Eric S.Mullin, Keith D.Sinclair, CarrieRosel, Patricia E.Thomas, LenSchwacke, Lori H.To assess potential impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, we conducted boat-based photo-identification surveys for common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA (~230 km2, located 167 km WNW of the spill center). Crews logged 838 h of survey effort along pre-defined routes on 10 occasions between late June 2010 and early May 2014. We applied a previously unpublished spatial version of the robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival and density. This model used photo locations to estimate density in the absence of study area boundaries and to separate mortality from permanent emigration. To estimate abundance, we applied density estimates to saltwater (salinity > ~8 ppt) areas of the bay where telemetry data suggested that dolphins reside. Annual dolphin survival varied between 0.80 and 0.85 (95% CIs varied from 0.77 to 0.90) over 3 yr following the Deepwater Horizon spill. In 2 non-oiled bays (in Florida and North Carolina), historic survival averages approximately 0.95. From June to November 2010, abundance increased from 1300 (95% CI ± ~130) to 3100 (95% CI ± ~400), then declined and remained between ~1600 and ~2400 individuals until spring 2013. In fall 2013 and spring 2014, abundance increased again to approximately 3100 individuals. Dolphin abundance prior to the spill was unknown, but we hypothesize that some dolphins moved out of the sampled area, probably northward into marshes, prior to initiation of our surveys in late June 2010, and later immigrated back into the sampled area.Markov-switching generalized additive models
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10578
We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain. Building on the powerful hidden Markov model machinery and the methods for penalized B-splines routinely used in regression analyses, we develop a framework for nonparametrically estimating the functional form of the effect of the covariates in such a regression model, assuming an additive structure of the predictor. The resulting class of Markov-switching generalized additive models is immensely flexible, and contains as special cases the common parametric Markov-switching regression models and also generalized additive and generalized linear models. The feasibility of the suggested maximum penalized likelihood approach is demonstrated by simulation. We further illustrate the approach using two real data applications, modelling (i) how sales data depend on advertising spending and (ii) how energy price in Spain depends on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate.
2017-01-01T00:00:00ZLangrock, RolandKneib, ThomasGlennie, RichardMichelot, ThéoWe consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain. Building on the powerful hidden Markov model machinery and the methods for penalized B-splines routinely used in regression analyses, we develop a framework for nonparametrically estimating the functional form of the effect of the covariates in such a regression model, assuming an additive structure of the predictor. The resulting class of Markov-switching generalized additive models is immensely flexible, and contains as special cases the common parametric Markov-switching regression models and also generalized additive and generalized linear models. The feasibility of the suggested maximum penalized likelihood approach is demonstrated by simulation. We further illustrate the approach using two real data applications, modelling (i) how sales data depend on advertising spending and (ii) how energy price in Spain depends on the Euro/Dollar exchange rate.Particle acceleration due to coronal non-null magnetic reconnection
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10551
Various topological features, for example magnetic null-points and separators, have been inferred as likely sites of magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration in the solar atmosphere. In fact, magnetic reconnection is not constrained to solely take place at or near such topological features and may also take place in the absence of such features. Studies of particle acceleration using non-topological reconnection experiments embedded in the solar atmosphere are uncommon. We aim to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a model of magnetic reconnection which causes an arcade of solar coronal magnetic field to twist and form an erupting flux rope, crucially in the absence of any common topological features where reconnection is often thought to occur. We use a numerical scheme which evolves the gyro-averaged orbit equations of single electrons and protons in time and space, and simulate the gyromotion of particles in a fully analytical global field model. We observe and discuss how the magnetic and electric fields of the model and the initial conditions of each orbit may lead to acceleration of protons and electrons up to 2 MeV in energy (depending on model parameters). We describe the morphology of time-dependent acceleration and impact sites for each particle species and compare our findings to those recovered by topologically based studies of three-dimensional (3D) reconnection and particle acceleration. We also broadly compare aspects of our findings to general observational features typically seen during two-ribbon flare events.
2017-03-01T00:00:00ZThrelfall, James WilliamNeukirch, ThomasParnell, Clare ElizabethVarious topological features, for example magnetic null-points and separators, have been inferred as likely sites of magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration in the solar atmosphere. In fact, magnetic reconnection is not constrained to solely take place at or near such topological features and may also take place in the absence of such features. Studies of particle acceleration using non-topological reconnection experiments embedded in the solar atmosphere are uncommon. We aim to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a model of magnetic reconnection which causes an arcade of solar coronal magnetic field to twist and form an erupting flux rope, crucially in the absence of any common topological features where reconnection is often thought to occur. We use a numerical scheme which evolves the gyro-averaged orbit equations of single electrons and protons in time and space, and simulate the gyromotion of particles in a fully analytical global field model. We observe and discuss how the magnetic and electric fields of the model and the initial conditions of each orbit may lead to acceleration of protons and electrons up to 2 MeV in energy (depending on model parameters). We describe the morphology of time-dependent acceleration and impact sites for each particle species and compare our findings to those recovered by topologically based studies of three-dimensional (3D) reconnection and particle acceleration. We also broadly compare aspects of our findings to general observational features typically seen during two-ribbon flare events.Contribution of mode-coupling and phase-mixing of Alfvén waves to coronal heating
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10517
Context. Phase-mixing of Alfvén waves in the solar corona has been identified as one possible candidate to explain coronal heating. While this scenario is supported by observations of ubiquitous oscillations in the corona carrying sufficient wave energy and by theoretical models that have described the concentration of energy in small-scale structures, it is still unclear whether this wave energy can be converted into thermal energy in order to maintain the million-degree hot solar corona. Aims. The aim of this work is to assess how much energy can be converted into thermal energy by a phase-mixing process triggered by the propagation of Alfvénic waves in a cylindric coronal structure, such as a coronal loop, and to estimate the impact of this conversion on the coronal heating and thermal structure of the solar corona. Methods. To this end, we ran 3D MHD simulations of a magnetised cylinder where the Alfvén speed varies through a boundary shell, and a footpoint driver is set to trigger kink modes that mode couple to torsional Alfvén modes in the boundary shell. These Alfvén waves are expected to phase-mix, and the system allows us to study the subsequent thermal energy deposition. We ran a reference simulation to explain the main process and then we varied the simulation parameters, such as the size of the boundary shell, its structure, and the persistence of the driver. Results. When we take high values of magnetic resistivity and strong footpoint drivers into consideration, we find that i) phase-mixing leads to a temperature increase of the order of 105 K or less, depending on the structure of the boundary shell, ii) this energy is able to balance the radiative losses only in the localised region involved in the heating, and iii) we can determine the influence of the boundary layer and the persistence of the driver on the thermal structure of the system. Conclusions. Our conclusion is that as a result of the extreme physical parameters we adopted and the moderate impact on the heating of the system, it is unlikely that phase-mixing can contribute on a global scale to the heating of the solar corona.
2017-03-14T00:00:00ZPagano, PaoloDe Moortel, InekeContext. Phase-mixing of Alfvén waves in the solar corona has been identified as one possible candidate to explain coronal heating. While this scenario is supported by observations of ubiquitous oscillations in the corona carrying sufficient wave energy and by theoretical models that have described the concentration of energy in small-scale structures, it is still unclear whether this wave energy can be converted into thermal energy in order to maintain the million-degree hot solar corona. Aims. The aim of this work is to assess how much energy can be converted into thermal energy by a phase-mixing process triggered by the propagation of Alfvénic waves in a cylindric coronal structure, such as a coronal loop, and to estimate the impact of this conversion on the coronal heating and thermal structure of the solar corona. Methods. To this end, we ran 3D MHD simulations of a magnetised cylinder where the Alfvén speed varies through a boundary shell, and a footpoint driver is set to trigger kink modes that mode couple to torsional Alfvén modes in the boundary shell. These Alfvén waves are expected to phase-mix, and the system allows us to study the subsequent thermal energy deposition. We ran a reference simulation to explain the main process and then we varied the simulation parameters, such as the size of the boundary shell, its structure, and the persistence of the driver. Results. When we take high values of magnetic resistivity and strong footpoint drivers into consideration, we find that i) phase-mixing leads to a temperature increase of the order of 105 K or less, depending on the structure of the boundary shell, ii) this energy is able to balance the radiative losses only in the localised region involved in the heating, and iii) we can determine the influence of the boundary layer and the persistence of the driver on the thermal structure of the system. Conclusions. Our conclusion is that as a result of the extreme physical parameters we adopted and the moderate impact on the heating of the system, it is unlikely that phase-mixing can contribute on a global scale to the heating of the solar corona.Delphinid echolocation click detection probability on near-seafloor sensors
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10512
The probability of detecting echolocating delphinids on a near-seafloor sensor was estimated using two Monte Carlo simulation methods. One method estimated the probability of detecting a single click (cue counting); the other estimated the probability of detecting a group of delphinids (group counting). Echolocation click beam pattern and source level assumptions strongly influenced detectability predictions by the cue counting model. Group detectability was also influenced by assumptions about group behaviors. Model results were compared to in situ recordings of encounters with Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus) and presumed pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) from a near-seafloor four-channel tracking sensor deployed in the Gulf of Mexico (25.537°N 84.632°W, depth 1220 m). Horizontal detection range, received level and estimated source level distributions from localized encounters were compared with the model predictions. Agreement between in situ results and model predictions suggests that simulations can be used to estimate detection probabilities when direct distance estimation is not available.
Funding for HARP data collection and analysis was provided by the Natural Resource Damage Assessment partners (20105138) and the Center for the Integrated Modeling and Analysis of the Gulf Ecosystem (C-IMAGE) Consortium of the BP/Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (SA 12-10/GoMRI-007). The analyses and opinions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funding entities. This research was made possible by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative/C-IMAGE II.
2016-09-01T00:00:00ZFrasier, Kaitlin E.Wiggins, Sean M.Harris, DanielleMarques, Tiago A.Thomas, LenHildebrand, John A.The probability of detecting echolocating delphinids on a near-seafloor sensor was estimated using two Monte Carlo simulation methods. One method estimated the probability of detecting a single click (cue counting); the other estimated the probability of detecting a group of delphinids (group counting). Echolocation click beam pattern and source level assumptions strongly influenced detectability predictions by the cue counting model. Group detectability was also influenced by assumptions about group behaviors. Model results were compared to in situ recordings of encounters with Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus) and presumed pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) from a near-seafloor four-channel tracking sensor deployed in the Gulf of Mexico (25.537°N 84.632°W, depth 1220 m). Horizontal detection range, received level and estimated source level distributions from localized encounters were compared with the model predictions. Agreement between in situ results and model predictions suggests that simulations can be used to estimate detection probabilities when direct distance estimation is not available.Imaging observations of magnetic reconnection in a solar eruptive flare
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10486
Solar flares are among the most energetic events in the solar atmosphere. It is widely accepted that flares are powered by magnetic reconnection in the corona. An eruptive flare is usually accompanied by a coronal mass ejection, both of which are probably driven by the eruption of a magnetic flux rope (MFR). Here we report an eruptive flare on 2016 March 23 observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations exhibit the clear rise and eruption of an MFR. In particular, the observations reveal solid evidence of magnetic reconnection from both the corona and chromosphere during the flare. Moreover, weak reconnection is observed before the start of the flare. We find that the preflare weak reconnection is of tether-cutting type and helps the MFR to rise slowly. Induced by a further rise of the MFR, strong reconnection occurs in the rise phases of the flare, which is temporally related to the MFR eruption. We also find that the magnetic reconnection is more of 3D-type in the early phase, as manifested in a strong-to-weak shear transition in flare loops, and becomes more 2D-like in the later phase, as shown by the apparent rising motion of an arcade of flare loops.
2017-01-31T00:00:00ZLi, Y.Sun, X.Ding, M. D.Qiu, J.Priest, E. R.Solar flares are among the most energetic events in the solar atmosphere. It is widely accepted that flares are powered by magnetic reconnection in the corona. An eruptive flare is usually accompanied by a coronal mass ejection, both of which are probably driven by the eruption of a magnetic flux rope (MFR). Here we report an eruptive flare on 2016 March 23 observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations exhibit the clear rise and eruption of an MFR. In particular, the observations reveal solid evidence of magnetic reconnection from both the corona and chromosphere during the flare. Moreover, weak reconnection is observed before the start of the flare. We find that the preflare weak reconnection is of tether-cutting type and helps the MFR to rise slowly. Induced by a further rise of the MFR, strong reconnection occurs in the rise phases of the flare, which is temporally related to the MFR eruption. We also find that the magnetic reconnection is more of 3D-type in the early phase, as manifested in a strong-to-weak shear transition in flare loops, and becomes more 2D-like in the later phase, as shown by the apparent rising motion of an arcade of flare loops.The effects of resistivity and viscosity on the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in oscillating coronal loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10450
Aims. Investigate the effects of resistivity and viscosity on the onset and growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) in an oscillating coronal loop. Methods. We modelled a standing kink wave in a density-enhanced loop with the three dimensional (3-D), resistive magnetohydrodynamics code, Lare3d. We conducted a parameter study on the viscosity and resistivity coefficients to examine the effects of dissipation on the KHI. Results. Enhancing the viscosity (nu) and resistivity (eta) acts to suppress the KHI. Larger values of eta and nu delay the formation of the instability and, in some cases, prevent the onset completely. This leads to the earlier onset of heating for smaller values of the transport coefficients. We note that viscosity has a greater effect on the development of the KHI than resistivity. Furthermore, when using anomalous resistivity, the Ohmic heating rate associated with the KHI may be greater than that associated with the phase mixing that occurs in an instability-suppressed regime (using uniform resistivity). Conclusions. From our study, it is clear that the heating rate crucially depends on the formation of small length scales (influenced by the numerical resolution) as well as the values of resistivity and viscosity. As larger values of the transport coefficients suppress the KHI, the onset of heating is delayed but the heating rate is larger. As increased numerical resolution allows smaller length scales to develop, the heating rate will be higher even for the same values of eta and nu.
2017-03-03T00:00:00ZHowson, Thomas AlexanderDe Moortel, InekeAntolin, PatrickAims. Investigate the effects of resistivity and viscosity on the onset and growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) in an oscillating coronal loop. Methods. We modelled a standing kink wave in a density-enhanced loop with the three dimensional (3-D), resistive magnetohydrodynamics code, Lare3d. We conducted a parameter study on the viscosity and resistivity coefficients to examine the effects of dissipation on the KHI. Results. Enhancing the viscosity (nu) and resistivity (eta) acts to suppress the KHI. Larger values of eta and nu delay the formation of the instability and, in some cases, prevent the onset completely. This leads to the earlier onset of heating for smaller values of the transport coefficients. We note that viscosity has a greater effect on the development of the KHI than resistivity. Furthermore, when using anomalous resistivity, the Ohmic heating rate associated with the KHI may be greater than that associated with the phase mixing that occurs in an instability-suppressed regime (using uniform resistivity). Conclusions. From our study, it is clear that the heating rate crucially depends on the formation of small length scales (influenced by the numerical resolution) as well as the values of resistivity and viscosity. As larger values of the transport coefficients suppress the KHI, the onset of heating is delayed but the heating rate is larger. As increased numerical resolution allows smaller length scales to develop, the heating rate will be higher even for the same values of eta and nu.Low tortoise abundances in pine forest plantations in forest-shrubland transition areas
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10435
In the transition between Mediterranean forest and the arid subtropical shrublands of the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, humans have transformed habitat since ancient times. Understanding the role of the original mosaic landscapes in wildlife species and the effects of the current changes as pine forest plantations, performed even outside the forest ecological boundaries, are important conservation issues. We studied variation in the density of the endangered spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) in three areas that include the four most common land types within the species’ range (pine forests, natural shrubs, dryland crop fields, and abandoned crop fields). Tortoise densities were estimated using a two-stage modeling approach with line transect distance sampling. Densities in dryland crop fields, abandoned crop fields and natural shrubs were higher (>6 individuals/ha) than in pine forests (1.25 individuals/ha). We also found large variation in density in the pine forests. Recent pine plantations showed higher densities than mature pine forests where shrub and herbaceous cover was taller and thicker. We hypothesize that mature pine forest might constrain tortoise activity by acting as partial barriers to movements. This issue is relevant for management purposes given that large areas in the tortoise’s range have recently been converted to pine plantations.
The Spanish Ministry of Science and European Regional Development Fund funded this work through Projects CGL2012-33536 and CGL2015- 64144; MINECIO/FEDER. Regional Government of the Community of Valencia supported R.R-C. by a postgraduate grant (ACIF/2010/133) and E.G. by a postdoctoral grant (APOSTD/2015/048).
2017-03-08T00:00:00ZRodríguez-Caro, Roberto C.Oedekoven, Cornelia S.Graciá, EvaAnadón, José D.Buckland, Stephen T.Esteve-Selma, Miguel A.Martinez, JuliaGiménez, AndrésIn the transition between Mediterranean forest and the arid subtropical shrublands of the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, humans have transformed habitat since ancient times. Understanding the role of the original mosaic landscapes in wildlife species and the effects of the current changes as pine forest plantations, performed even outside the forest ecological boundaries, are important conservation issues. We studied variation in the density of the endangered spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) in three areas that include the four most common land types within the species’ range (pine forests, natural shrubs, dryland crop fields, and abandoned crop fields). Tortoise densities were estimated using a two-stage modeling approach with line transect distance sampling. Densities in dryland crop fields, abandoned crop fields and natural shrubs were higher (>6 individuals/ha) than in pine forests (1.25 individuals/ha). We also found large variation in density in the pine forests. Recent pine plantations showed higher densities than mature pine forests where shrub and herbaceous cover was taller and thicker. We hypothesize that mature pine forest might constrain tortoise activity by acting as partial barriers to movements. This issue is relevant for management purposes given that large areas in the tortoise’s range have recently been converted to pine plantations.A simulation approach to assessing environmental risk of sound exposure to marine mammals
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10382
Intense underwater sounds caused by military sonar, seismic surveys, and pile driving can harm acoustically sensitive marine mammals. Many jurisdictions require such activities to undergo marine mammal impact assessments to guide mitigation. However, the ability to assess impacts in a rigorous, quantitative way is hindered by large knowledge gaps concerning hearing ability, sensitivity, and behavioral responses to noise exposure. We describe a simulation-based framework, called SAFESIMM (Statistical Algorithms For Estimating the Sonar Influence on Marine Megafauna), that can be used to calculate the numbers of agents (animals) likely to be affected by intense underwater sounds. We illustrate the simulation framework using two species that are likely to be affected by marine renewable energy developments in UK waters: gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). We investigate three sources of uncertainty: How sound energy is perceived by agents with differing hearing abilities; how agents move in response to noise (i.e., the strength and directionality of their evasive movements); and the way in which these responses may interact with longer term constraints on agent movement. The estimate of received sound exposure level (SEL) is influenced most strongly by the weighting function used to account for the specie's presumed hearing ability. Strongly directional movement away from the sound source can cause modest reductions (~5 dB) in SEL over the short term (periods of less than 10 days). Beyond 10 days, the way in which agents respond to noise exposure has little or no effect on SEL, unless their movements are constrained by natural boundaries. Most experimental studies of noise impacts have been short-term. However, data are needed on long-term effects because uncertainty about predicted SELs accumulates over time. Synthesis and applications. Simulation frameworks offer a powerful way to explore, understand, and estimate effects of cumulative sound exposure on marine mammals and to quantify associated levels of uncertainty. However, they can often require subjective decisions that have important consequences for management recommendations, and the basis for these decisions must be clearly described.
2017-04-01T00:00:00ZDonovan, Carl R.Harris, Catriona M.Milazzo, LorenzoHarwood, JohnMarshall, LauraWilliams, RobIntense underwater sounds caused by military sonar, seismic surveys, and pile driving can harm acoustically sensitive marine mammals. Many jurisdictions require such activities to undergo marine mammal impact assessments to guide mitigation. However, the ability to assess impacts in a rigorous, quantitative way is hindered by large knowledge gaps concerning hearing ability, sensitivity, and behavioral responses to noise exposure. We describe a simulation-based framework, called SAFESIMM (Statistical Algorithms For Estimating the Sonar Influence on Marine Megafauna), that can be used to calculate the numbers of agents (animals) likely to be affected by intense underwater sounds. We illustrate the simulation framework using two species that are likely to be affected by marine renewable energy developments in UK waters: gray seal (Halichoerus grypus) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). We investigate three sources of uncertainty: How sound energy is perceived by agents with differing hearing abilities; how agents move in response to noise (i.e., the strength and directionality of their evasive movements); and the way in which these responses may interact with longer term constraints on agent movement. The estimate of received sound exposure level (SEL) is influenced most strongly by the weighting function used to account for the specie's presumed hearing ability. Strongly directional movement away from the sound source can cause modest reductions (~5 dB) in SEL over the short term (periods of less than 10 days). Beyond 10 days, the way in which agents respond to noise exposure has little or no effect on SEL, unless their movements are constrained by natural boundaries. Most experimental studies of noise impacts have been short-term. However, data are needed on long-term effects because uncertainty about predicted SELs accumulates over time. Synthesis and applications. Simulation frameworks offer a powerful way to explore, understand, and estimate effects of cumulative sound exposure on marine mammals and to quantify associated levels of uncertainty. However, they can often require subjective decisions that have important consequences for management recommendations, and the basis for these decisions must be clearly described.Bayesian P-splines and advanced computing in R for a changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10323
This work presents advanced computational aspects of a new method for changepoint detection on spatio-temporal point process data. We summarize the methodology, based on building a Bayesian hierarchical model for the data and declaring prior conjectures on the number and positions of the changepoints, and show how to take decisions regarding the acceptance of potential changepoints. The focus of this work is about choosing an approach that detects the correct changepoint and delivers smooth reliable estimates in a feasible computational time; we propose Bayesian P-splines as a suitable tool for managing spatial variation, both under a computational and a model fitting performance perspective. The main computational challenges are outlined and a solution involving parallel computing in R is proposed and tested on a simulation study. An application is also presented on a data set of seismic events in Italy over the last 20 years.
As regards authors Linda Altieri and Fedele Greco, the research work underlying this paper was partially funded by an FIRB 2012 [grant number RBFR12URQJ]; title: Statistical modelling of environmental phenomena: pollution, meteorology, health and their interactions) for research projects by the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZAltieri, L.Cocchi, D.Greco, F.Illian, J. B.Scott, E. M.This work presents advanced computational aspects of a new method for changepoint detection on spatio-temporal point process data. We summarize the methodology, based on building a Bayesian hierarchical model for the data and declaring prior conjectures on the number and positions of the changepoints, and show how to take decisions regarding the acceptance of potential changepoints. The focus of this work is about choosing an approach that detects the correct changepoint and delivers smooth reliable estimates in a feasible computational time; we propose Bayesian P-splines as a suitable tool for managing spatial variation, both under a computational and a model fitting performance perspective. The main computational challenges are outlined and a solution involving parallel computing in R is proposed and tested on a simulation study. An application is also presented on a data set of seismic events in Italy over the last 20 years.A combined theory for magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure and magnetic shear
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10305
We present a new approach to the theory of magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure, magnetic shear and translational/rotational invariance. This approach involves combining two existing formalisms in order to eliminate their individual weaknesses. The theoretical aspects of the method are explored in detail along with numerical solutions which make use of the method. Eventually, this method could be applied to model various plasma systems, such as planetary magnetospheres.
Grant numbers: Science and Technology Facilities Council via Doctoral Training Grant [ST/K502327/1], Consolidated Grant [ST/K000950/1] and Consolidated Grant [ST/N000609/1].
2017-03-10T00:00:00ZHodgson, Jonathan David BrockieNeukirch, ThomasWe present a new approach to the theory of magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure, magnetic shear and translational/rotational invariance. This approach involves combining two existing formalisms in order to eliminate their individual weaknesses. The theoretical aspects of the method are explored in detail along with numerical solutions which make use of the method. Eventually, this method could be applied to model various plasma systems, such as planetary magnetospheres.Randomized low-rank Dynamic Mode Decomposition for motion detection
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10273
This paper introduces a fast algorithm for randomized computation of a low-rank Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of a matrix. Here we consider this matrix to represent the development of a spatial grid through time e.g. data from a static video source. DMD was originally introduced in the fluid mechanics community, but is also suitable for motion detection in video streams and its use for background subtraction has received little previous investigation. In this study we present a comprehensive evaluation of background subtraction, using the randomized DMD and compare the results with leading robust principal component analysis algorithms. The results are convincing and show the random DMD is an efficient and powerful approach for background modeling, allowing processing of high resolution videos in real-time. Supplementary materials include implementations of the algorithms in Python.
N. Benjamin Erichson acknowledges support from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).
2016-02-12T00:00:00ZErichson, Nils BenjaminDonovan, Carl RobertThis paper introduces a fast algorithm for randomized computation of a low-rank Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of a matrix. Here we consider this matrix to represent the development of a spatial grid through time e.g. data from a static video source. DMD was originally introduced in the fluid mechanics community, but is also suitable for motion detection in video streams and its use for background subtraction has received little previous investigation. In this study we present a comprehensive evaluation of background subtraction, using the randomized DMD and compare the results with leading robust principal component analysis algorithms. The results are convincing and show the random DMD is an efficient and powerful approach for background modeling, allowing processing of high resolution videos in real-time. Supplementary materials include implementations of the algorithms in Python.Observational signatures of transverse magnetohydrodynamic waves and associated dynamic instabilities in coronal flux tubes
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10256
MHD waves permeate the solar atmosphere and constitute potential coronal heating agents. Yet, the waves detected so far may be but a small subset of the true existing wave power. Detection is limited by instrumental constraints, but also by wave processes that localise the wave power in undetectable spatial scales. In this study we conduct 3D MHD simulations and forward modelling of standing transverse MHD waves in coronal loops with uniform and non-uniform temperature variation in the perpendicular cross-section. The observed signatures are largely dominated by the combination of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), resonant absorption and phase mixing. In the presence of a cross-loop temperature gradient we find that emission lines sensitive to the loop core catch different signatures than those more sensitive to the loop boundary and the surrounding corona, leading to an out-of-phase intensity modulation produced by the KHI mixing. Common signatures to all considered models include an intensity and loop width modulation at half the kink period, fine strand-like structure, a characteristic arrow-shaped structure in the Doppler maps, overall line broadening in time but particularly at the loop edges. For our model, most of these features can be captured with a spatial resolution of 0.33″ and spectral resolution of 25 km s-1, although severe over-estimation of the line width is obtained. Resonant absorption leads to a significant decrease of the observed kinetic energy from Doppler motions over time, which is not recovered by a corresponding increase in the line width from phase mixing and the KHI motions. We estimate this hidden wave energy to be a factor of 5-10 of the observed value.
This research has received funding from the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council and the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 647214), and also from JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 25220703 (PI: S. Tsuneta) and 15H03640 (PI: T. Yokoyama). T.V.D. was supported by FWO Vlaanderen’s Odysseus programme, GOA-2015-014 (KU Leuven) and the IAP P7/08 CHARM (Belspo).
2017-02-22T00:00:00ZAntolin, PatrickMoortel, Ineke DeDoorsselaere, Tom VanYokoyama, TakaakiMHD waves permeate the solar atmosphere and constitute potential coronal heating agents. Yet, the waves detected so far may be but a small subset of the true existing wave power. Detection is limited by instrumental constraints, but also by wave processes that localise the wave power in undetectable spatial scales. In this study we conduct 3D MHD simulations and forward modelling of standing transverse MHD waves in coronal loops with uniform and non-uniform temperature variation in the perpendicular cross-section. The observed signatures are largely dominated by the combination of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), resonant absorption and phase mixing. In the presence of a cross-loop temperature gradient we find that emission lines sensitive to the loop core catch different signatures than those more sensitive to the loop boundary and the surrounding corona, leading to an out-of-phase intensity modulation produced by the KHI mixing. Common signatures to all considered models include an intensity and loop width modulation at half the kink period, fine strand-like structure, a characteristic arrow-shaped structure in the Doppler maps, overall line broadening in time but particularly at the loop edges. For our model, most of these features can be captured with a spatial resolution of 0.33″ and spectral resolution of 25 km s-1, although severe over-estimation of the line width is obtained. Resonant absorption leads to a significant decrease of the observed kinetic energy from Doppler motions over time, which is not recovered by a corresponding increase in the line width from phase mixing and the KHI motions. We estimate this hidden wave energy to be a factor of 5-10 of the observed value.Going off grid : computationally efficient inference for log-Gaussian Cox processes
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10232
This paper introduces a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood is approximated directly by making use of a continuously specified Gaussian random field. We show that for sufficiently smooth Gaussian random field prior distributions, the approximation can converge with arbitrarily high order, whereas an approximation based on a counting process on a partition of the domain achieves only first-order convergence. The results improve upon the general theory of convergence for stochastic partial differential equation models introduced by Lindgren et al. (2011). The new method is demonstrated on a standard point pattern dataset, and two interesting extensions to the classical log-Gaussian Cox process framework are discussed. The first extension considers variable sampling effort throughout the observation window and implements the method of Chakraborty et al. (2011). The second extension constructs a log-Gaussian Cox process on the world's oceans. The analysis is performed using integrated nested Laplace approximation for fast approximate inference.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZSimpson, DanielIllian, Janine BaerbelLindgren, FinnSørbye, Sigrunn H.Rue, HaavardThis paper introduces a new method for performing computational inference on log-Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood is approximated directly by making use of a continuously specified Gaussian random field. We show that for sufficiently smooth Gaussian random field prior distributions, the approximation can converge with arbitrarily high order, whereas an approximation based on a counting process on a partition of the domain achieves only first-order convergence. The results improve upon the general theory of convergence for stochastic partial differential equation models introduced by Lindgren et al. (2011). The new method is demonstrated on a standard point pattern dataset, and two interesting extensions to the classical log-Gaussian Cox process framework are discussed. The first extension considers variable sampling effort throughout the observation window and implements the method of Chakraborty et al. (2011). The second extension constructs a log-Gaussian Cox process on the world's oceans. The analysis is performed using integrated nested Laplace approximation for fast approximate inference.Balanced solutions for an ellipsoidal vortex in a rotating stratified flow
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10227
We consider the motion of a single ellipsoidal vortex with uniform potential vorticity in a rotating stratified fluid at finite Rossby number . Building on previous solutions obtained under the quasi-geostrophic approximation (at first order in ), we obtain analytical solutions for the balanced part of the flow at . These solutions capture important ageostrophic effects giving rise to an asymmetry in the evolution of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. Previous work has shown that, if the velocity field induced by an ellipsoidal vortex only depends linearly on spatial coordinates inside the vortex, i.e. , then the dynamics reduces markedly to a simple matrix equation. The instantaneous vortex shape and orientation are encapsulated in a symmetric matrix , which is acted upon by the flow matrix to provide the vortex evolution. Under the quasi-geostrophic approximation, the flow matrix is determined by inverting the potential vorticity to obtain the streamfunction via Poisson's equation, which has a known analytical solution depending on elliptic integrals. Here we show that higher-order balanced solutions, up to second order in the Rossby number, can also be calculated analytically. However, in this case there is a vector potential that requires the solution of three Poisson equations for each of its components. The source terms for these equations are independent of spatial coordinates within the ellipsoid, depending only on the elliptic integrals solved at the leading, quasi-geostrophic order. Unlike the quasi-geostrophic case, these source terms do not in general vanish outside the ellipsoid and have an inordinately complicated dependence on spatial coordinates. In the special case of an ellipsoid whose axes are aligned with the coordinate axes, we are able to derive these source terms and obtain the full analytical solution to the three Poisson equations. However, if one considers the homogeneous case, whereby the outer source terms are neglected, one can obtain an approximate solution having a compact matrix form analogous to the leading-order quasi-geostrophic case. This approximate solution proves to be highly accurate for the general case of an arbitrarily oriented ellipsoid, as verified through comparisons of the solutions with solutions obtained from numerical simulations of an ellipsoid using an accurate nonlinear balance model, even at moderate Rossby numbers.
Support for this research has come from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant number EP/H001794/1).
2016-09-01T00:00:00ZMckiver, William J.Dritschel, David G.We consider the motion of a single ellipsoidal vortex with uniform potential vorticity in a rotating stratified fluid at finite Rossby number . Building on previous solutions obtained under the quasi-geostrophic approximation (at first order in ), we obtain analytical solutions for the balanced part of the flow at . These solutions capture important ageostrophic effects giving rise to an asymmetry in the evolution of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. Previous work has shown that, if the velocity field induced by an ellipsoidal vortex only depends linearly on spatial coordinates inside the vortex, i.e. , then the dynamics reduces markedly to a simple matrix equation. The instantaneous vortex shape and orientation are encapsulated in a symmetric matrix , which is acted upon by the flow matrix to provide the vortex evolution. Under the quasi-geostrophic approximation, the flow matrix is determined by inverting the potential vorticity to obtain the streamfunction via Poisson's equation, which has a known analytical solution depending on elliptic integrals. Here we show that higher-order balanced solutions, up to second order in the Rossby number, can also be calculated analytically. However, in this case there is a vector potential that requires the solution of three Poisson equations for each of its components. The source terms for these equations are independent of spatial coordinates within the ellipsoid, depending only on the elliptic integrals solved at the leading, quasi-geostrophic order. Unlike the quasi-geostrophic case, these source terms do not in general vanish outside the ellipsoid and have an inordinately complicated dependence on spatial coordinates. In the special case of an ellipsoid whose axes are aligned with the coordinate axes, we are able to derive these source terms and obtain the full analytical solution to the three Poisson equations. However, if one considers the homogeneous case, whereby the outer source terms are neglected, one can obtain an approximate solution having a compact matrix form analogous to the leading-order quasi-geostrophic case. This approximate solution proves to be highly accurate for the general case of an arbitrarily oriented ellipsoid, as verified through comparisons of the solutions with solutions obtained from numerical simulations of an ellipsoid using an accurate nonlinear balance model, even at moderate Rossby numbers.An experiment of the impact of a neonicotinoid pesticide on honeybees : the value of a formal analysis of the data
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10159
Background: We assess the analysis of the data resulting from a field experiment conducted by Pilling et al. (2013) on the potential effects of thiamethoxam on honey bees. The experiment had low levels of replication, so Pilling et al. concluded that formal statistical analysis would be misleading. This would be true if such an analysis merely comprised tests of statistical significance and if the investigators concluded that lack of significance meant little or no effect. However, an analysis that includes estimation of the size of any effects—with confidence limits—allows one to reach conclusions that are not misleading and that produce useful insights. Main Body: For the data of Pilling et al. we use straightforward statistical analysis to show that the confidence limits are generally so wide that any effects of thiamethoxam could have been large without being statistically significant. Instead of formal analysis, Pilling et al. simply inspected the data and concluded that they provided no evidence of detrimental effects and from this that thiamethoxam poses a “low risk” to bees. Conclusions: Conclusions derived from inspection of the data were not just misleading in this case but are unacceptable in principle, for if data are inadequate for a formal analysis (or only good enough to provide estimates with wide confidence intervals) then they are bound to be inadequate as a basis for reaching any sound conclusions. Given that the data in this case are largely uninformative with respect to the treatment effect, any conclusions reached from such informal approaches can do little more than reflect the prior beliefs of those involved.
This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.
2017-01-23T00:00:00ZSchick, Robert S.Greenwood, Jeremy J. D.Buckland, Stephen T.Background: We assess the analysis of the data resulting from a field experiment conducted by Pilling et al. (2013) on the potential effects of thiamethoxam on honey bees. The experiment had low levels of replication, so Pilling et al. concluded that formal statistical analysis would be misleading. This would be true if such an analysis merely comprised tests of statistical significance and if the investigators concluded that lack of significance meant little or no effect. However, an analysis that includes estimation of the size of any effects—with confidence limits—allows one to reach conclusions that are not misleading and that produce useful insights. Main Body: For the data of Pilling et al. we use straightforward statistical analysis to show that the confidence limits are generally so wide that any effects of thiamethoxam could have been large without being statistically significant. Instead of formal analysis, Pilling et al. simply inspected the data and concluded that they provided no evidence of detrimental effects and from this that thiamethoxam poses a “low risk” to bees. Conclusions: Conclusions derived from inspection of the data were not just misleading in this case but are unacceptable in principle, for if data are inadequate for a formal analysis (or only good enough to provide estimates with wide confidence intervals) then they are bound to be inadequate as a basis for reaching any sound conclusions. Given that the data in this case are largely uninformative with respect to the treatment effect, any conclusions reached from such informal approaches can do little more than reflect the prior beliefs of those involved.From distance sampling to spatial capture-recapture
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10116
Distance sampling and capture–recapture are the two most widely used wildlife abundance estimation methods. capture–recapture methods have only recently incorporated models for spatial distribution and there is an increasing tendency for distance sampling methods to incorporated spatial models rather than to rely on partly design-based spatial inference. In this overview we show how spatial models are central to modern distance sampling and that spatial capture–recapture models arise as an extension of distance sampling methods. Depending on the type of data recorded, they can be viewed as particular kinds of hierarchical binary regression, Poisson regression, survival or time-to-event models, with individuals’ locations as latent variables and a spatial model as the latent variable distribution. Incorporation of spatial models in these two methods provides new opportunities for drawing explicitly spatial inferences. Areas of likely future development include more sophisticated spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of individuals’ locations and movements, new methods for integrating spatial capture–recapture and other kinds of ecological survey data, and methods for dealing with the recapture uncertainty that often arise when “capture” consists of detection by a remote device like a camera trap or microphone.
TAM thanks support by CEAUL (funded by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Project UID/MAT/00006/2013).
2017-01-10T00:00:00ZBorchers, David L.Marques, Tiago A.Distance sampling and capture–recapture are the two most widely used wildlife abundance estimation methods. capture–recapture methods have only recently incorporated models for spatial distribution and there is an increasing tendency for distance sampling methods to incorporated spatial models rather than to rely on partly design-based spatial inference. In this overview we show how spatial models are central to modern distance sampling and that spatial capture–recapture models arise as an extension of distance sampling methods. Depending on the type of data recorded, they can be viewed as particular kinds of hierarchical binary regression, Poisson regression, survival or time-to-event models, with individuals’ locations as latent variables and a spatial model as the latent variable distribution. Incorporation of spatial models in these two methods provides new opportunities for drawing explicitly spatial inferences. Areas of likely future development include more sophisticated spatial and spatio-temporal modelling of individuals’ locations and movements, new methods for integrating spatial capture–recapture and other kinds of ecological survey data, and methods for dealing with the recapture uncertainty that often arise when “capture” consists of detection by a remote device like a camera trap or microphone.An assessment of the population of cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) and their habitat in Colombia
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10100
Numerous animals have declining populations due to habitat loss, illegal wildlife trade, and climate change. The cotton-top tamarin (Saguinus oedipus) is a Critically Endangered primate species, endemic to northwest Colombia, threatened by deforestation and illegal trade. In order to assess the current state of this species, we analyzed changes in the population of cotton-top tamarins and its habitat from 2005 to 2012. We used a tailor-made "lure strip transect" method to survey 43 accessible forest parcels that represent 30% of the species' range. Estimated population size in the surveyed region was approximately 2,050 in 2005 and 1,900 in 2012, with a coefficient of variation of approximately 10%. The estimated population change between surveys was -7% (a decline of approximately 1.3% per year) suggesting a relatively stable population. If densities of inaccessible forest parcels are similar to those of surveyed samples, the estimated population of cotton-top tamarins in the wild in 2012 was 6,946 individuals. We also recorded little change in the amount of suitable habitat for cotton-top tamarins between sample periods: in 2005, 18% of surveyed forest was preferred habitat for cotton-top tamarins, while in 2012, 17% percent was preferred. We attribute the relatively stable population of this Critically Endangered species to increased conservation efforts of Proyecto Tití, conservation NGOs, and the Colombian government. Due to continued threats to cotton-top tamarins and their habitat such as agriculture and urban expansion, ongoing conservation efforts are needed to ensure the long-term survival of cotton-top tamarins in Colombia.
2016-12-28T00:00:00ZSavage, AnneThomas, LenFeilen, Katie L.Kidney, DarrenSoto, Luis H.Pearson, MackenzieMedina, Felix S.Emeris, GermanGuillen, Rosamira R.Numerous animals have declining populations due to habitat loss, illegal wildlife trade, and climate change. The cotton-top tamarin (Saguinus oedipus) is a Critically Endangered primate species, endemic to northwest Colombia, threatened by deforestation and illegal trade. In order to assess the current state of this species, we analyzed changes in the population of cotton-top tamarins and its habitat from 2005 to 2012. We used a tailor-made "lure strip transect" method to survey 43 accessible forest parcels that represent 30% of the species' range. Estimated population size in the surveyed region was approximately 2,050 in 2005 and 1,900 in 2012, with a coefficient of variation of approximately 10%. The estimated population change between surveys was -7% (a decline of approximately 1.3% per year) suggesting a relatively stable population. If densities of inaccessible forest parcels are similar to those of surveyed samples, the estimated population of cotton-top tamarins in the wild in 2012 was 6,946 individuals. We also recorded little change in the amount of suitable habitat for cotton-top tamarins between sample periods: in 2005, 18% of surveyed forest was preferred habitat for cotton-top tamarins, while in 2012, 17% percent was preferred. We attribute the relatively stable population of this Critically Endangered species to increased conservation efforts of Proyecto Tití, conservation NGOs, and the Colombian government. Due to continued threats to cotton-top tamarins and their habitat such as agriculture and urban expansion, ongoing conservation efforts are needed to ensure the long-term survival of cotton-top tamarins in Colombia.Inference of heating properties from "hot" non-flaring plasmas in active region cores. II. Nanoflare trains
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10097
Despite its prediction over two decades ago, the detection of faint, high-temperature ("hot") emission due to nanoflare heating in non-flaring active region cores has proved challenging. Using an efficient two-fluid hydrodynamic model, this paper investigates the properties of the emission expected from repeating nanoflares (a nanoflare train) of varying frequency as well as the separate heating of electrons and ions. If the emission measure distribution (EM(T)) peaks at T = Tm, we find that EM(Tm) is independent of details of the nanoflare train, and EM(T) above and below Tm reflects different aspects of the heating. Below Tm, the main influence is the relationship of the waiting time between successive nanoflares to the nanoflare energy. Above Tm, power-law nanoflare distributions lead to an extensive plasma population not present in a mono-energetic train. Furthermore, in some cases, characteristic features are present in EM(T). Such details may be detectable given adequate spectral resolution and a good knowledge of the relevant atomic physics. In the absence of such resolution we propose some metrics that can be used to infer the presence of "hot" plasma.
This work was supported in part by the Big-Data Private-Cloud Research Cyberinfrastructure MRI-award funded by NSF under grant CNS-1338099 and by Rice University.
2016-12-20T00:00:00ZBarnes, W. T.Cargill, P. J.Bradshaw, S. J.Despite its prediction over two decades ago, the detection of faint, high-temperature ("hot") emission due to nanoflare heating in non-flaring active region cores has proved challenging. Using an efficient two-fluid hydrodynamic model, this paper investigates the properties of the emission expected from repeating nanoflares (a nanoflare train) of varying frequency as well as the separate heating of electrons and ions. If the emission measure distribution (EM(T)) peaks at T = Tm, we find that EM(Tm) is independent of details of the nanoflare train, and EM(T) above and below Tm reflects different aspects of the heating. Below Tm, the main influence is the relationship of the waiting time between successive nanoflares to the nanoflare energy. Above Tm, power-law nanoflare distributions lead to an extensive plasma population not present in a mono-energetic train. Furthermore, in some cases, characteristic features are present in EM(T). Such details may be detectable given adequate spectral resolution and a good knowledge of the relevant atomic physics. In the absence of such resolution we propose some metrics that can be used to infer the presence of "hot" plasma.Magneto-static modeling from SUNRISE/IMaX : application to an active region observed with SUNRISE II
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10083
Magneto-static models may overcome some of the issues facing force-free magnetic field extrapolations. So far they have seen limited use and have faced problems when applied to quiet-Sun data. Here we present a first application to an active region. We use solar vector magnetic field measurements gathered by the IMaX polarimeter during the flight of the \sunrise{} balloon-borne solar observatory in June 2013 as boundary condition for a magneto-static model of the higher solar atmosphere above an active region. The IMaX data are embedded in active region vector magnetograms observed with SDO/HMI. This work continues our magneto-static extrapolation approach, which has been applied earlier ({\it Paper I}) to a quiet Sun region observed with \sunrise{} I. In an active region the signal-to-noise-ratio in the measured Stokes parameters is considerably higher than in the quiet Sun and consequently the IMaX measurements of the horizontal photospheric magnetic field allow us to specify the free parameters of the model in a special class of linear magneto-static equilibria. The high spatial resolution of IMaX (110-130 km, pixel size 40 km) enables us to model the non-force-free layer between the photosphere and the mid chromosphere vertically by about 50 grid points. In our approach we can incorporate some aspects of the mixed beta layer of photosphere and chromosphere, e.g., taking a finite Lorentz force into account, which was not possible with lower resolution photospheric measurements in the past. The linear model does not, however, permit to model intrinsic nonlinear structures like strongly localized electric currents.
2017-03-22T00:00:00ZWiegelmann, T.Neukirch, ThomasNickeler, D. H.Solanki, S. K.Barthol, P.Gandorfer, A.Gizon, L.Hirzberger, J.Riethmüller, T. L.Noort, M. vanRodríguez, J. BlancoDel Toro Iniesta, J. C.Suárez, D. OrozcoSchmidt, W.Pillet, V. MartínezKnölker, M.Magneto-static models may overcome some of the issues facing force-free magnetic field extrapolations. So far they have seen limited use and have faced problems when applied to quiet-Sun data. Here we present a first application to an active region. We use solar vector magnetic field measurements gathered by the IMaX polarimeter during the flight of the \sunrise{} balloon-borne solar observatory in June 2013 as boundary condition for a magneto-static model of the higher solar atmosphere above an active region. The IMaX data are embedded in active region vector magnetograms observed with SDO/HMI. This work continues our magneto-static extrapolation approach, which has been applied earlier ({\it Paper I}) to a quiet Sun region observed with \sunrise{} I. In an active region the signal-to-noise-ratio in the measured Stokes parameters is considerably higher than in the quiet Sun and consequently the IMaX measurements of the horizontal photospheric magnetic field allow us to specify the free parameters of the model in a special class of linear magneto-static equilibria. The high spatial resolution of IMaX (110-130 km, pixel size 40 km) enables us to model the non-force-free layer between the photosphere and the mid chromosphere vertically by about 50 grid points. In our approach we can incorporate some aspects of the mixed beta layer of photosphere and chromosphere, e.g., taking a finite Lorentz force into account, which was not possible with lower resolution photospheric measurements in the past. The linear model does not, however, permit to model intrinsic nonlinear structures like strongly localized electric currents.A new approach for modelling chromospheric evaporation in response to enhanced coronal heating. I. The method
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10063
We present a new computational approach that addresses the difficulty of obtaining the correct interaction between the solar corona and the transition region in response to rapid heating events. In the coupled corona, transition region and chromosphere system, an enhanced downward conductive flux results in an upflow (chromospheric evaporation).However, obtaining the correct upflow generally requires high spatial resolution in order to resolve the transition region. With an unresolved transition region, artificially low coronal densities are obtained because the downward heat flux ‘jumps’ across the unresolved region to the chromosphere, underestimating the upflows. Here, we treat the lower transition region as a discontinuity that responds to changing coronal conditions through the imposition of a jump condition that is derived from an integrated form of energy conservation. To illustrate and benchmark this approach against a fully resolved one-dimensional model, we present field-aligned simulations of coronal loops in response to a range of impulsive (spatially uniform) heating events. We show that our approach leads to a significant improvement in the coronal density evolution than just when using coarse spatial resolutions insufficient to resolve the lower transition region. Our approach compensates for the jumping of the heat flux by imposing a velocity correction that ensures that the energy from the heat flux goes into driving the transition region dynamics, rather than being lost through radiation. Hence, it is possible to obtain improved coronal densities. The advantages of using this approach in both one-dimensional hydrodynamic and three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations are discussed.
C.D.J. acknowledges the financial support of the Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland. This project has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) through the consolidated grant ST/N000609/1 and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No 647214).
2017-01-01T00:00:00ZJohnston, Craig DavidHood, Alan WilliamCargill, PeterDe Moortel, InekeWe present a new computational approach that addresses the difficulty of obtaining the correct interaction between the solar corona and the transition region in response to rapid heating events. In the coupled corona, transition region and chromosphere system, an enhanced downward conductive flux results in an upflow (chromospheric evaporation).However, obtaining the correct upflow generally requires high spatial resolution in order to resolve the transition region. With an unresolved transition region, artificially low coronal densities are obtained because the downward heat flux ‘jumps’ across the unresolved region to the chromosphere, underestimating the upflows. Here, we treat the lower transition region as a discontinuity that responds to changing coronal conditions through the imposition of a jump condition that is derived from an integrated form of energy conservation. To illustrate and benchmark this approach against a fully resolved one-dimensional model, we present field-aligned simulations of coronal loops in response to a range of impulsive (spatially uniform) heating events. We show that our approach leads to a significant improvement in the coronal density evolution than just when using coarse spatial resolutions insufficient to resolve the lower transition region. Our approach compensates for the jumping of the heat flux by imposing a velocity correction that ensures that the energy from the heat flux goes into driving the transition region dynamics, rather than being lost through radiation. Hence, it is possible to obtain improved coronal densities. The advantages of using this approach in both one-dimensional hydrodynamic and three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations are discussed.Using hierarchical centering to facilitate a reversible jump MCMC algorithm for random effects models
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10035
Hierarchical centering has been described as a reparameterisation method applicable to random effects models. It has been shown to improve mixing of models in the context of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A hierarchical centering approach is proposed for reversible jump MCMC (RJMCMC) chains which builds upon the hierarchical centering methods for MCMC chains and uses them to reparameterize models in an RJMCMC algorithm. Although these methods may be applicable to models with other error distributions, the case is described for a log-linear Poisson model where the expected value λλ includes fixed effect covariates and a random effect for which normality is assumed with a zero-mean and unknown standard deviation. For the proposed RJMCMC algorithm including hierarchical centering, the models are reparameterized by modelling the mean of the random effect coefficients as a function of the intercept of the λλ model and one or more of the available fixed effect covariates depending on the model. The method is appropriate when fixed-effect covariates are constant within random effect groups. This has an effect on the dynamics of the RJMCMC algorithm and improves model mixing. The methods are applied to a case study of point transects of indigo buntings where, without hierarchical centering, the RJMCMC algorithm had poor mixing and the estimated posterior distribution depended on the starting model. With hierarchical centering on the other hand, the chain moved freely over model and parameter space. These results are confirmed with a simulation study. Hence, the proposed methods should be considered as a regular strategy for implementing models with random effects in RJMCMC algorithms; they facilitate convergence of these algorithms and help avoid false inference on model parameters.
The first author was supported by a studentship jointly funded by the University of St Andrews and EPSRC, through the National Centre for Statistical Ecology (EPSRC grant EP/C522702/1), with subsequent funding from EPSRC/NERC grant EP/I000917/1.
2016-06-01T00:00:00ZOedekoven, Cornelia SabrinaKing, R.Buckland, Stephen TerrenceMacKenzie, Monique LeaEvans, K. O.Burger Jr., L. WHierarchical centering has been described as a reparameterisation method applicable to random effects models. It has been shown to improve mixing of models in the context of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A hierarchical centering approach is proposed for reversible jump MCMC (RJMCMC) chains which builds upon the hierarchical centering methods for MCMC chains and uses them to reparameterize models in an RJMCMC algorithm. Although these methods may be applicable to models with other error distributions, the case is described for a log-linear Poisson model where the expected value λλ includes fixed effect covariates and a random effect for which normality is assumed with a zero-mean and unknown standard deviation. For the proposed RJMCMC algorithm including hierarchical centering, the models are reparameterized by modelling the mean of the random effect coefficients as a function of the intercept of the λλ model and one or more of the available fixed effect covariates depending on the model. The method is appropriate when fixed-effect covariates are constant within random effect groups. This has an effect on the dynamics of the RJMCMC algorithm and improves model mixing. The methods are applied to a case study of point transects of indigo buntings where, without hierarchical centering, the RJMCMC algorithm had poor mixing and the estimated posterior distribution depended on the starting model. With hierarchical centering on the other hand, the chain moved freely over model and parameter space. These results are confirmed with a simulation study. Hence, the proposed methods should be considered as a regular strategy for implementing models with random effects in RJMCMC algorithms; they facilitate convergence of these algorithms and help avoid false inference on model parameters.Compressed dynamic mode decomposition for background modeling
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9981
We introduce the method of compressed dynamic mode decomposition (cDMD) for background modeling. The dynamic mode decomposition is a regression technique that integrates two of the leading data analysis methods in use today: Fourier transforms and singular value decomposition. Borrowing ideas from compressed sensing and matrix sketching, cDMD eases the computational workload of high-resolution video processing. The key principal of cDMD is to obtain the decomposition on a (small) compressed matrix representation of the video feed. Hence, the cDMD algorithm scales with the intrinsic rank of the matrix, rather than the size of the actual video (data) matrix. Selection of the optimal modes characterizing the background is formulated as a sparsity-constrained sparse coding problem. Our results show that the quality of the resulting background model is competitive, quantified by the F-measure, recall and precision. A graphics processing unit accelerated implementation is also presented which further boosts the computational performance of the algorithm.
JNK acknowledges support from Air Force Office of Scientific Research (FA9500-15-C-0039). SLB acknowledges support from the Department of Energy under award DE-EE0006785. NBE acknowledges support from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/L505079/1).
2016-11-29T00:00:00ZErichson, N. BenjaminBrunton, Steven L.Kutz, J. NathanWe introduce the method of compressed dynamic mode decomposition (cDMD) for background modeling. The dynamic mode decomposition is a regression technique that integrates two of the leading data analysis methods in use today: Fourier transforms and singular value decomposition. Borrowing ideas from compressed sensing and matrix sketching, cDMD eases the computational workload of high-resolution video processing. The key principal of cDMD is to obtain the decomposition on a (small) compressed matrix representation of the video feed. Hence, the cDMD algorithm scales with the intrinsic rank of the matrix, rather than the size of the actual video (data) matrix. Selection of the optimal modes characterizing the background is formulated as a sparsity-constrained sparse coding problem. Our results show that the quality of the resulting background model is competitive, quantified by the F-measure, recall and precision. A graphics processing unit accelerated implementation is also presented which further boosts the computational performance of the algorithm.Free monoids are coherent
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9979
A monoid S is said to be right coherent if every finitely generated subact of every finitely presented right S-act is finitely presented. Left coherency is defined dually and S is coherent if it is both right and left coherent. These notions are analogous to those for a ring R (where, of course, S-acts are replaced by R-modules). Choo, Lam and Luft have shown that free rings are coherent. In this note we prove that, correspondingly, any free monoid is coherent, thus answering a question posed by the first author in 1992.
2017-02-01T00:00:00ZGould, VHartmann, MRuskuc, NikA monoid S is said to be right coherent if every finitely generated subact of every finitely presented right S-act is finitely presented. Left coherency is defined dually and S is coherent if it is both right and left coherent. These notions are analogous to those for a ring R (where, of course, S-acts are replaced by R-modules). Choo, Lam and Luft have shown that free rings are coherent. In this note we prove that, correspondingly, any free monoid is coherent, thus answering a question posed by the first author in 1992.Extinction is imminent for Mexico’s endemic porpoise unless fishery bycatch is eliminated
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9938
The number of Mexico’s endemic porpoise, the vaquita (Phocoena sinus), is collapsing primarily due to bycatch in illegal gillnets set for totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), an endangered fish whose swim bladders are exported to China. Previous research estimated that vaquitas declined from about 567 to 245 individuals between 1997 and 2008. Acoustic monitoring between 2011 and 2015 showed a decline of 34%/year. Here, we combine visual line transect and passive acoustic data collected simultaneously in a robust spatial analysis to estimate that only 59 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval [CRI] 22 – 145) vaquita remained as of autumn 2015, a decrease since 1997 of 92% (95% CRI 80%-97%). Risk analysis suggests that if the current, temporary gillnet ban is maintained and effectively enforced, vaquitas could recover to 2008 population levels by 2050. Otherwise, the species is likely to be extinct within a decade.
Primary funding was by Secretaria del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (Secretario R. Pacchiano). Mexican support was from SEMARNAT, CONABIO, CONANP, PROFEPA, SEMAR, and WWF-Mexico. US support from NOAA-Fisheries-SWFSC and The Marine Mammal Center.
2016-12-05T00:00:00ZTaylor, Barbara L.Rojas-Bracho, LorenzoMoore, JeffreyJaramillo-Legorreta, ArmandoVer Hoef, Jay M.Cardenas-Hinojosa, GustavoNieto-Garcia, EdwynaBarlow, JayGerrodette, TimTregenza, NicholasThomas, LenHammond, Philip S.The number of Mexico’s endemic porpoise, the vaquita (Phocoena sinus), is collapsing primarily due to bycatch in illegal gillnets set for totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), an endangered fish whose swim bladders are exported to China. Previous research estimated that vaquitas declined from about 567 to 245 individuals between 1997 and 2008. Acoustic monitoring between 2011 and 2015 showed a decline of 34%/year. Here, we combine visual line transect and passive acoustic data collected simultaneously in a robust spatial analysis to estimate that only 59 (95% Bayesian Credible Interval [CRI] 22 – 145) vaquita remained as of autumn 2015, a decrease since 1997 of 92% (95% CRI 80%-97%). Risk analysis suggests that if the current, temporary gillnet ban is maintained and effectively enforced, vaquitas could recover to 2008 population levels by 2050. Otherwise, the species is likely to be extinct within a decade.Passive acoustic monitoring of the decline of Mexico's critically endangered vaquita
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9937
The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is the world's most endangered marine mammal with ≈245 individuals remaining in 2008. This species of porpoise is endemic to the northern Gulf of California, Mexico, and has historically suffered population declines from unsustainable bycatch in gillnets. An illegal gillnet fishery for an endangered fish, the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), has recently resurged throughout the vaquita's range. The secretive but lucrative wildlife trade with China for totoaba swim bladders has probably increased vaquita bycatch mortality, but by an unknown amount. Precise population monitoring by visual surveys is difficult because vaquitas are inherently hard to see and have now become so rare that sighting rates are very low. However, their echolocation clicks can be identified readily on specialized acoustic detectors. Acoustic detections on an array of 46 moored detectors indicate that vaquita acoustic activity declined by 80% between 2011 and 2015 in the central part of the species’ range. Statistical models estimate an annual rate of decline of 34% (95% Bayesian Credible Interval -48% to -21%). Based on preliminary acoustic monitoring results from 2011–2014 the Government of Mexico enacted and is enforcing an emergency 2-year ban of gillnets throughout the species’ range to prevent extinction, at a cost of $74 million USD to compensate fishers. Developing precise acoustic monitoring methods proved critical to exposing the severity of vaquitas’ decline and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring to effectively manage critically endangered species.
Different institutions and agencies have provided funding during the development and implementation of the acoustic monitoring program.
2017-02-01T00:00:00ZJaramillo-Legorreta, ArmandoCardenas-Hinojosa, GustavoNieto-Garcia, EdwynaRojas-Bracho, LorenzoHoef, Jay VerMoore, JeffreyTregenza, NicholasBarlow, JayGerrodette, TimThomas, LenTaylor, BarbaraThe vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is the world's most endangered marine mammal with ≈245 individuals remaining in 2008. This species of porpoise is endemic to the northern Gulf of California, Mexico, and has historically suffered population declines from unsustainable bycatch in gillnets. An illegal gillnet fishery for an endangered fish, the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), has recently resurged throughout the vaquita's range. The secretive but lucrative wildlife trade with China for totoaba swim bladders has probably increased vaquita bycatch mortality, but by an unknown amount. Precise population monitoring by visual surveys is difficult because vaquitas are inherently hard to see and have now become so rare that sighting rates are very low. However, their echolocation clicks can be identified readily on specialized acoustic detectors. Acoustic detections on an array of 46 moored detectors indicate that vaquita acoustic activity declined by 80% between 2011 and 2015 in the central part of the species’ range. Statistical models estimate an annual rate of decline of 34% (95% Bayesian Credible Interval -48% to -21%). Based on preliminary acoustic monitoring results from 2011–2014 the Government of Mexico enacted and is enforcing an emergency 2-year ban of gillnets throughout the species’ range to prevent extinction, at a cost of $74 million USD to compensate fishers. Developing precise acoustic monitoring methods proved critical to exposing the severity of vaquitas’ decline and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring to effectively manage critically endangered species.The challenges of analyzing behavioral response study data : an overview of the MOCHA (Multi-study OCean acoustics Human effects Analysis) project
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9923
This paper describes the MOCHA project which aims to develop novel approaches for the analysis of data collected during Behavioral Response Studies (BRSs). BRSs are experiments aimed at directly quantifying the effects of controlled dosages of natural or anthropogenic stimuli (typically sound) on marine mammal behavior. These experiments typically result in low sample size, relative to variability, and so we are looking at a number of studies in combination to maximize the gain from each one. We describe a suite of analytical tools applied to BRS data on beaked whales, including a simulation study aimed at informing future experimental design.
Date of Acceptance:
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZHarris, Catriona MThomas, LenSadykova, DinaraDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnTyack, Peter LloydSouthall, Brandon L.Read, Andrew J.Miller, PatrickThis paper describes the MOCHA project which aims to develop novel approaches for the analysis of data collected during Behavioral Response Studies (BRSs). BRSs are experiments aimed at directly quantifying the effects of controlled dosages of natural or anthropogenic stimuli (typically sound) on marine mammal behavior. These experiments typically result in low sample size, relative to variability, and so we are looking at a number of studies in combination to maximize the gain from each one. We describe a suite of analytical tools applied to BRS data on beaked whales, including a simulation study aimed at informing future experimental design.Counting chirps : acoustic monitoring of cryptic frogs
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9921
1 . Global amphibian declines have resulted in a vital need for monitoring programmes that follow population trends. Monitoring using advertisement calls is ideal as choruses are undisturbed during data collection. However, methods currently employed by managers frequently rely on trained observers, and/or do not provide density data on which to base trends. 2 . This study explores the utility of monitoring using acoustic spatially explicit capture-recapture (aSECR) with time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) as a quantitative monitoring technique to measure call density of a threatened but visually cryptic anuran, the Cape peninsula moss frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. 3 . The relationships between temporal and environmental variables (date, rainfall, temperature) and A. lightfooti call density at three study sites on the Cape peninsula, South Africa were examined. Acoustic data, collected from an array of six microphones over four months during the winter breeding season, provided a time series of call density estimates. 4 . Model selection indicated that call density was primarily associated with seasonality fitted as a quadratic function. Call density peaked mid-breeding season. At the main study site, the lowest recorded mean call density (0·160 calls m-2 min-1) occurred in May and reached its peak mid-July (1·259 calls m-2 min-1). The sites differed in call density, but also the effective sampling area. 5 . Synthesis and applications.The monitoring technique, acoustic spatially explicit capture–recapture (aSCR), quantitatively estimates call density without disturbing the calling animals or their environment, while time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) significantly add to the accuracy of call localisation, which in turn increases precision of call density estimates without the need for specialist field staff. This technique appears ideally suited to aid the monitoring of visually cryptic, acoustically active species.
Funding for the frog survey was received from the National Geographic Society/Waitt Grants Program (No. W184-11). The EPSRC and NERC helped to fund this research through a PhD grant (No. EP/1000917/1) to D.L.B. R.A. and G.J.M. acknowledge initiative funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa.
2017-06-01T00:00:00ZMeasey, G. JohnStevenson, Ben C.Scott, TanyaAltwegg, ResBorchers, David L.1 . Global amphibian declines have resulted in a vital need for monitoring programmes that follow population trends. Monitoring using advertisement calls is ideal as choruses are undisturbed during data collection. However, methods currently employed by managers frequently rely on trained observers, and/or do not provide density data on which to base trends. 2 . This study explores the utility of monitoring using acoustic spatially explicit capture-recapture (aSECR) with time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) as a quantitative monitoring technique to measure call density of a threatened but visually cryptic anuran, the Cape peninsula moss frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. 3 . The relationships between temporal and environmental variables (date, rainfall, temperature) and A. lightfooti call density at three study sites on the Cape peninsula, South Africa were examined. Acoustic data, collected from an array of six microphones over four months during the winter breeding season, provided a time series of call density estimates. 4 . Model selection indicated that call density was primarily associated with seasonality fitted as a quadratic function. Call density peaked mid-breeding season. At the main study site, the lowest recorded mean call density (0·160 calls m-2 min-1) occurred in May and reached its peak mid-July (1·259 calls m-2 min-1). The sites differed in call density, but also the effective sampling area. 5 . Synthesis and applications.The monitoring technique, acoustic spatially explicit capture–recapture (aSCR), quantitatively estimates call density without disturbing the calling animals or their environment, while time of arrival (ToA) and signal strength (SS) significantly add to the accuracy of call localisation, which in turn increases precision of call density estimates without the need for specialist field staff. This technique appears ideally suited to aid the monitoring of visually cryptic, acoustically active species.Re-evaluation of individual diameter : height allometric models to improve biomass estimation of tropical trees
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9898
Accurate estimation of tree biomass is necessary to provide realistic values of the carbon stored in the terrestrial biosphere. A recognized source of errors in tree above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation is introduced when individual tree height values (H) are not directly measured but estimated from diameter at breast height (DBH) using allometric equations. In this paper we evaluate the performance of 12 alternative DBH : H equations and compare their effects on AGB estimation for three tropical forests that occur in contrasting climatic and altitudinal zones. We found that fitting a 3-parameter Weibull function using data collected locally generated the lowest errors and bias in H estimation, and that equations fitted to these data were more accurate than equations with parameters derived from the literature. For computing AGB, the introduced error values differed notably among DBH : H allometric equations, and in most cases showed a clear bias that resulted in either over- or under-estimation of AGB. Fitting the three-parameter Weibull function minimized errors in AGB estimates in our study and we recommend its widespread adoption for carbon stock estimation. We conclude that many previous studies are likely to present biased estimates of AGB due to the method of H estimation.
The first author was supported by the European Union under a IEF Marie-Curie Action.
2016-12-01T00:00:00ZLedo, AliciaCornulier, ThomasIllian, Janine B.Iida, YoshikoKassim, Abdul RahmanBurslem, David F. R. P.Accurate estimation of tree biomass is necessary to provide realistic values of the carbon stored in the terrestrial biosphere. A recognized source of errors in tree above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation is introduced when individual tree height values (H) are not directly measured but estimated from diameter at breast height (DBH) using allometric equations. In this paper we evaluate the performance of 12 alternative DBH : H equations and compare their effects on AGB estimation for three tropical forests that occur in contrasting climatic and altitudinal zones. We found that fitting a 3-parameter Weibull function using data collected locally generated the lowest errors and bias in H estimation, and that equations fitted to these data were more accurate than equations with parameters derived from the literature. For computing AGB, the introduced error values differed notably among DBH : H allometric equations, and in most cases showed a clear bias that resulted in either over- or under-estimation of AGB. Fitting the three-parameter Weibull function minimized errors in AGB estimates in our study and we recommend its widespread adoption for carbon stock estimation. We conclude that many previous studies are likely to present biased estimates of AGB due to the method of H estimation.Distance sampling detection functions : 2D or not 2D?
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9885
Conventional distance sampling (CDS) methods assume that animals are uniformly distributed in the vicinity of lines or points. But when animals move in response to observers before detection, or when lines or points are not located randomly, this assumption may fail. By formulating distance sampling models as survival models, we show that using time to first detection in addition to perpendicular distance (line transect surveys) or radial distance (point transect surveys) allows estimation of detection probability, and hence density, when animal distribution in the vicinity of lines or points is not uniform and is unknown. We also show that times to detection can provide information about failure of the CDS assumption that detection probability is 1 at distance zero. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimator of line transect survey detection probability and effective strip half-width using times to detection, and we investigate its properties by simulation in situations where animals are nonuniformly distributed and their distribution is unknown. The estimator is found to perform well when detection probability at distance zero is 1. It allows unbiased estimates of density to be obtained in this case from surveys in which there has been responsive movement prior to animals coming within detectable range. When responsive movement continues within detectable range, estimates may be biased but are likely less biased than estimates from methods that assuming no responsive movement. We illustrate by estimating primate density from a line transect survey in which animals are known to avoid the transect line, and a shipboard survey of dolphins that are attracted to it.
MJC was funded by Australian Research Council grant FS110200057.
2016-10-17T00:00:00ZBorchers, David LouisCox, Martin JamesConventional distance sampling (CDS) methods assume that animals are uniformly distributed in the vicinity of lines or points. But when animals move in response to observers before detection, or when lines or points are not located randomly, this assumption may fail. By formulating distance sampling models as survival models, we show that using time to first detection in addition to perpendicular distance (line transect surveys) or radial distance (point transect surveys) allows estimation of detection probability, and hence density, when animal distribution in the vicinity of lines or points is not uniform and is unknown. We also show that times to detection can provide information about failure of the CDS assumption that detection probability is 1 at distance zero. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimator of line transect survey detection probability and effective strip half-width using times to detection, and we investigate its properties by simulation in situations where animals are nonuniformly distributed and their distribution is unknown. The estimator is found to perform well when detection probability at distance zero is 1. It allows unbiased estimates of density to be obtained in this case from surveys in which there has been responsive movement prior to animals coming within detectable range. When responsive movement continues within detectable range, estimates may be biased but are likely less biased than estimates from methods that assuming no responsive movement. We illustrate by estimating primate density from a line transect survey in which animals are known to avoid the transect line, and a shipboard survey of dolphins that are attracted to it.A comparison of global magnetic field skeletons and active-region upflows
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9875
Plasma upflows have been detected in active regions using Doppler velocity maps. The origin and nature of these upflows is not well known with many of their characteristics determined from the examination of single events. In particular, some studies suggest these upflows occur along open field lines and, hence, are linked to sources of the solar wind. To investigate the relationship these upflows may have with the solar wind, and to probe what may be driving them, this paper considers seven active regions observed on the solar disc using the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer aboard Hinode between August 2011 and September 2012. Plasma upflows are observed in all these active regions. The locations of these upflows are compared to the global potential magnetic field extrapolated from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager daily synoptic magnetogram taken on the day the upflows were observed. The structure of the magnetic field is determined by constructing its magnetic skeleton in order to help identify open-field regions and also sites where magnetic reconnection at global features is likely to occur. As a further comparison, measurements of the temperature, density and composition of the plasma are taken from regions with active-region upflows. In most cases the locations of the upflows in the active regions do not correspond to areas of open field, as predicted by a global coronal potential-field model, and therefore these upflows are not always sources of the slow solar wind. The locations of the upflows are, in general, intersected by separatrix surfaces associated with null points located high in the corona; these could be important sites of reconnection with global consequences.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZEdwards, S. J.Parnell, C. E.Harra, L. K.Culhane, J. L.Brooks, D. H.Plasma upflows have been detected in active regions using Doppler velocity maps. The origin and nature of these upflows is not well known with many of their characteristics determined from the examination of single events. In particular, some studies suggest these upflows occur along open field lines and, hence, are linked to sources of the solar wind. To investigate the relationship these upflows may have with the solar wind, and to probe what may be driving them, this paper considers seven active regions observed on the solar disc using the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer aboard Hinode between August 2011 and September 2012. Plasma upflows are observed in all these active regions. The locations of these upflows are compared to the global potential magnetic field extrapolated from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager daily synoptic magnetogram taken on the day the upflows were observed. The structure of the magnetic field is determined by constructing its magnetic skeleton in order to help identify open-field regions and also sites where magnetic reconnection at global features is likely to occur. As a further comparison, measurements of the temperature, density and composition of the plasma are taken from regions with active-region upflows. In most cases the locations of the upflows in the active regions do not correspond to areas of open field, as predicted by a global coronal potential-field model, and therefore these upflows are not always sources of the slow solar wind. The locations of the upflows are, in general, intersected by separatrix surfaces associated with null points located high in the corona; these could be important sites of reconnection with global consequences.MapMySmoke–a context aware mobile phone application targeted at smoking cessation
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9872
2016-11-22T00:00:00ZSchick, Robert SchillingHumphris, Gerald MichaelKelsey, Thomas WilliamMarston, JohnSampson, KayKinematics of coronal rain in a transversely oscillating loop : ponderomotive force and rain-excited oscillations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9777
Context. Coronal rain are cool dense blobs that form in solar coronal loops and are a manifestation of catastrophic cooling linked to thermal instability. Once formed, rain falls towards the solar surface at sub-ballistic speeds, which is not well-understood. Pressure forces seem to be the prime candidate to explain this. In many observations rain is accompanied by transverse oscillations and the interaction between the two needs to be explored. Aims. Therefore, an alternative kinematic model for coronal rain kinematics in transversely oscillating loops is developed to understand the physical nature of the observed sub-ballistic falling motion of rain. It explicitly explores the role of the ponderomotive force arising from the transverse oscillation on the rain motion as well as the capacity of rain to excite wave motion. Methods. An analytical model is presented that describes a rain blob guided by the coronal magnetic field supporting a one dimensional shear Alfvén wave as a point mass on an oscillating string. The model includes gravity and the ponderomotive force from the oscillation acting on the mass, as well as the inertia of the mass acting on the oscillation. Results. The kinematics of rain in the limit of negligible rain mass are explored and falling and trapped regimes are found, depending on wave amplitude. In the trapped regime for the fundamental mode, the rain blob bounces back and forth around the loop top at a long period inversely proportional to the oscillation amplitude. The model is compared with several observational rain studies, including one in-depth comparison with an observation that shows rain with up-and down bobbing motion. The role of rain inertia in exciting transverse oscillations is explored in inclined loops. Conclusions. It is found that the model requires displacement amplitudes of the transverse oscillation that are typically an order of magnitude larger than observed to explain the measured sub-ballistic motion of the rain. Therefore, it is concluded that the ponderomotive force is not the primary reason for understanding sub-ballistic motion, but it plays a role in cases of large loop oscillations.The appearance of rain causes the excitation of small-amplitude transverse oscillations that may explain observed events and provide a seismological tool to measure rain mass.
E.V. acknowledges support from the Warwick STFC Consolidated Grant ST/L000733/I. P.A. acknowledges support from the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (grant agreement No. 647214). P.K. acknowledges support from a UK STFC PhD studentship. T.N. acknowledges support from the St Andrews STFC Consolidated Grant SN/N000609/1.
2017-02-01T00:00:00ZVerwichte, E.Antolin, P.Rowlands, G.Kohutova, P.Neukirch, T.Context. Coronal rain are cool dense blobs that form in solar coronal loops and are a manifestation of catastrophic cooling linked to thermal instability. Once formed, rain falls towards the solar surface at sub-ballistic speeds, which is not well-understood. Pressure forces seem to be the prime candidate to explain this. In many observations rain is accompanied by transverse oscillations and the interaction between the two needs to be explored. Aims. Therefore, an alternative kinematic model for coronal rain kinematics in transversely oscillating loops is developed to understand the physical nature of the observed sub-ballistic falling motion of rain. It explicitly explores the role of the ponderomotive force arising from the transverse oscillation on the rain motion as well as the capacity of rain to excite wave motion. Methods. An analytical model is presented that describes a rain blob guided by the coronal magnetic field supporting a one dimensional shear Alfvén wave as a point mass on an oscillating string. The model includes gravity and the ponderomotive force from the oscillation acting on the mass, as well as the inertia of the mass acting on the oscillation. Results. The kinematics of rain in the limit of negligible rain mass are explored and falling and trapped regimes are found, depending on wave amplitude. In the trapped regime for the fundamental mode, the rain blob bounces back and forth around the loop top at a long period inversely proportional to the oscillation amplitude. The model is compared with several observational rain studies, including one in-depth comparison with an observation that shows rain with up-and down bobbing motion. The role of rain inertia in exciting transverse oscillations is explored in inclined loops. Conclusions. It is found that the model requires displacement amplitudes of the transverse oscillation that are typically an order of magnitude larger than observed to explain the measured sub-ballistic motion of the rain. Therefore, it is concluded that the ponderomotive force is not the primary reason for understanding sub-ballistic motion, but it plays a role in cases of large loop oscillations.The appearance of rain causes the excitation of small-amplitude transverse oscillations that may explain observed events and provide a seismological tool to measure rain mass.Identifying multispecies synchrony in response to environmental covariates
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9775
The importance of multi-species models for understanding complex ecological processes and interactions is beginning to be realised. Recent developments, such as those by Lahoz-Monfort et al. (2011), have enabled synchrony in demographic parameters across multiple species to be explored. Species in a similar environment would be expected to be subject to similar exogenous factors, although their response to each of these factors may be quite different. The ability to group species together according to how they respond to a particular measured covariate may be of particular interest to ecologists. We fit a multi-species model to two sets of similar species of garden bird monitored under the British Trust for Ornithology’s Garden Bird Feeding Survey. Posterior model probabilities were estimated using the reversible jump algorithm to compare posterior support for competing models with different species sharing different subsets of regression coefficients.There was frequently good agreement between species with small asynchronous random effect components and those with posterior support for models with shared regression coefficients; however, this was not always the case. When groups of species were less correlated, greater uncertainty was found in whether regression coefficients should be shared or not.The methods outlined in this paper can test additional hypotheses about the similarities or synchrony across multiple species that share the same environment. Through the use of posterior model probabilities, estimated using the reversible jump algorithm, we can detect multi-species responses in relation to measured covariates across any combination of species and covariates under consideration. The method can account for synchrony across species in relation to measured covariates, as well as unexplained variation accounted for using random effects. For more flexible, multi-parameter distributions, the support for species-specific parameters can also be measured.
BTS was part funded by EPSRC/NERC grant EP/10009171/1.
2016-12-01T00:00:00ZSwallow, Benjamin ThomasKing, RuthBuckland, Stephen TerrenceToms, Mike P.The importance of multi-species models for understanding complex ecological processes and interactions is beginning to be realised. Recent developments, such as those by Lahoz-Monfort et al. (2011), have enabled synchrony in demographic parameters across multiple species to be explored. Species in a similar environment would be expected to be subject to similar exogenous factors, although their response to each of these factors may be quite different. The ability to group species together according to how they respond to a particular measured covariate may be of particular interest to ecologists. We fit a multi-species model to two sets of similar species of garden bird monitored under the British Trust for Ornithology’s Garden Bird Feeding Survey. Posterior model probabilities were estimated using the reversible jump algorithm to compare posterior support for competing models with different species sharing different subsets of regression coefficients.There was frequently good agreement between species with small asynchronous random effect components and those with posterior support for models with shared regression coefficients; however, this was not always the case. When groups of species were less correlated, greater uncertainty was found in whether regression coefficients should be shared or not.The methods outlined in this paper can test additional hypotheses about the similarities or synchrony across multiple species that share the same environment. Through the use of posterior model probabilities, estimated using the reversible jump algorithm, we can detect multi-species responses in relation to measured covariates across any combination of species and covariates under consideration. The method can account for synchrony across species in relation to measured covariates, as well as unexplained variation accounted for using random effects. For more flexible, multi-parameter distributions, the support for species-specific parameters can also be measured.Purse-seine vessels as platforms for monitoring the population status of dolphin species in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean : the use of fishing vessels as scientific platforms
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9773
In the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) are often found in association with spotted (Stenella attenuata) and spinner (Stenella longirostris) dolphins. Purse-seine vessels use this co-occurrence to locate the tuna by searching for dolphins and associated birds. Data collected by onboard observers since the late 1970s were used to develop indices of relative abundance for dolphins, based on line-transect methodology, when the primary method of detection of dolphin herds was with binoculars. However, trend estimation was subsequently discontinued in 2000 due to concerns about changes in reporting rates of dolphin herd detections with increased use of helicopter and radar search. At present, as a result of a hiatus in fishery-independent surveys since 2006, fisheries observer data are the only source of information with which to monitor the status of eastern tropical Pacific Ocean dolphin populations. In this paper, trend estimation with the onboard observer data is revisited using a sightings-per-unit-effort approach. Despite different assumptions and model structure, the results indicate a lack of independence between the distribution of search effort and the search methods used, and the abundance of dolphin herds associated with tunas, on several spatial and temporal scales. This lack of independence poses a considerable challenge to the development of a reliable index of relative abundance for dolphins with these data. Given these results, alternatives for dolphin abundance estimation are discussed. One alternative is the use of purse-seine vessels for line-transect surveys during fishery closure periods. Another alternative is the use of purse-seine vessels during normal fishing operations as platforms for the collection of mark-recapture data (e.g., passive integrated transponder tags or genetics sampling). Life-history data collection, as a supplement to the collection of other data types, is also discussed. Further research and development is needed to assess whether these alternative methods will be useful.
2016-06-01T00:00:00ZLennert-Cody, Cleridy E.Maunder, Mark N.Fiedler, Paul C.Minami, MihokoGerrodette, TimRusin, JeremyMinte-Vera, Carolina V.Scott, MichaelBuckland, Stephen TerrenceIn the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) are often found in association with spotted (Stenella attenuata) and spinner (Stenella longirostris) dolphins. Purse-seine vessels use this co-occurrence to locate the tuna by searching for dolphins and associated birds. Data collected by onboard observers since the late 1970s were used to develop indices of relative abundance for dolphins, based on line-transect methodology, when the primary method of detection of dolphin herds was with binoculars. However, trend estimation was subsequently discontinued in 2000 due to concerns about changes in reporting rates of dolphin herd detections with increased use of helicopter and radar search. At present, as a result of a hiatus in fishery-independent surveys since 2006, fisheries observer data are the only source of information with which to monitor the status of eastern tropical Pacific Ocean dolphin populations. In this paper, trend estimation with the onboard observer data is revisited using a sightings-per-unit-effort approach. Despite different assumptions and model structure, the results indicate a lack of independence between the distribution of search effort and the search methods used, and the abundance of dolphin herds associated with tunas, on several spatial and temporal scales. This lack of independence poses a considerable challenge to the development of a reliable index of relative abundance for dolphins with these data. Given these results, alternatives for dolphin abundance estimation are discussed. One alternative is the use of purse-seine vessels for line-transect surveys during fishery closure periods. Another alternative is the use of purse-seine vessels during normal fishing operations as platforms for the collection of mark-recapture data (e.g., passive integrated transponder tags or genetics sampling). Life-history data collection, as a supplement to the collection of other data types, is also discussed. Further research and development is needed to assess whether these alternative methods will be useful.A test case for the inviscid shallow-water equations on the sphere
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9761
A numerically converged solution to the inviscid global shallow-water equations for a predefined time interval is documented to provide a convenient benchmark for model validation. The solution is based on the same initial conditions as a previously documented solution for the viscous equations. The solution is computed using two independent numerical schemes, one a pseudospectral scheme based on an expansion in spherical harmonics and the other a finite-volume scheme on a cubed-sphere grid. Flow fields and various integral norms are documented to facilitate model comparison and validation. Attention is drawn to the utility of the potential vorticity supremum as a convenient and sensitive test of numerical convergence, in which the exact value is known a priori over the entire time interval.
Partial support for this work was provided through the National Science Foundation award AGS-1333029.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZScott, R. K.Harris, L. M.Polvani, L. M.A numerically converged solution to the inviscid global shallow-water equations for a predefined time interval is documented to provide a convenient benchmark for model validation. The solution is based on the same initial conditions as a previously documented solution for the viscous equations. The solution is computed using two independent numerical schemes, one a pseudospectral scheme based on an expansion in spherical harmonics and the other a finite-volume scheme on a cubed-sphere grid. Flow fields and various integral norms are documented to facilitate model comparison and validation. Attention is drawn to the utility of the potential vorticity supremum as a convenient and sensitive test of numerical convergence, in which the exact value is known a priori over the entire time interval.Inference of heating properties from "hot" non-flaring plasmas in active region cores. I. Single nanoflares
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9753
The properties that are expected of “hot” non-flaring plasmas due to nanoflare heating in active regions are investigated using hydrodynamic modeling tools, including a two-fluid development of the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops code. Here we study a single nanoflare and show that while simple models predict an emission measure distribution extending well above 10 MK, which is consistent with cooling by thermal conduction, many other effects are likely to limit the existence and detectability of such plasmas. These include: differential heating between electrons and ions, ionization non-equilibrium, and for short nanoflares, the time taken for the coronal density to increase. The most useful temperature range to look for this plasma, often called the “smoking gun” of nanoflare heating, lies between 10 6.6 and 10 7 K. Signatures of the actual heating may be detectable in some instances.
2016-09-20T00:00:00ZBarnes, W. T.Cargill, P. J.Bradshaw, S. J.The properties that are expected of “hot” non-flaring plasmas due to nanoflare heating in active regions are investigated using hydrodynamic modeling tools, including a two-fluid development of the Enthalpy Based Thermal Evolution of Loops code. Here we study a single nanoflare and show that while simple models predict an emission measure distribution extending well above 10 MK, which is consistent with cooling by thermal conduction, many other effects are likely to limit the existence and detectability of such plasmas. These include: differential heating between electrons and ions, ionization non-equilibrium, and for short nanoflares, the time taken for the coronal density to increase. The most useful temperature range to look for this plasma, often called the “smoking gun” of nanoflare heating, lies between 10 6.6 and 10 7 K. Signatures of the actual heating may be detectable in some instances.Spatial models of abundance and habitat preferences of Commerson’s and Peale’s dolphin in southern Patagonian waters
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9740
Commerson’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus c. commersonii) and Peale’s dolphins (Lagenorhynchus australis) are two of the most common species of cetaceans in the coastal waters of southwest South Atlantic Ocean. Both species are listed as Data Deficient by the IUCN, mainly due to the lack of information about population sizes and trends. The goal of this study was to build spatially explicit models for the abundance of both species in relation to environmental variables using data collected during eight scientific cruises along the Patagonian shelf. Spatial models were constructed using generalized additive models. In total, 88 schools (212 individuals) of Commerson’s dolphin and 134 schools (465 individuals) of Peale’s dolphin were recorded in 8,535 km surveyed. Commerson’s dolphin was found less than 60 km from shore; whereas Peale’s dolphins occurred over a wider range of distances from the coast, the number of animals sighted usually being larger near or far from the coast. Fitted models indicate overall abundances of approximately 22,000 Commerson’s dolphins and 20,000 Peale’s dolphins in the total area studied. This work provides the first large-scale abundance estimate for Peale’s dolphin in the Atlantic Ocean and an update of population size for Commerson’s dolphin. Additionally, our results contribute to baseline data on suitable habitat conditions for both species in southern Patagonia, which is essential for the implementation of adequate conservation measures.
This research was possible with the support of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Funding for travel to and accommodation for NAD in Aberdeen, Scotland was provided by CONICET and Cetacean Society International. The work of NAD was part of a postdoctoral fellowship funded by CONICET.
2016-10-26T00:00:00ZDellabianca, Natalia A.Pierce, Graham J.Rey, Andrea RayaScioscia, GabrielaMiller, David L.Torres, Mónica A.Viola, M. Natalia PasoGoodall, R. Natalie PSchiavini, Adrián C MCommerson’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus c. commersonii) and Peale’s dolphins (Lagenorhynchus australis) are two of the most common species of cetaceans in the coastal waters of southwest South Atlantic Ocean. Both species are listed as Data Deficient by the IUCN, mainly due to the lack of information about population sizes and trends. The goal of this study was to build spatially explicit models for the abundance of both species in relation to environmental variables using data collected during eight scientific cruises along the Patagonian shelf. Spatial models were constructed using generalized additive models. In total, 88 schools (212 individuals) of Commerson’s dolphin and 134 schools (465 individuals) of Peale’s dolphin were recorded in 8,535 km surveyed. Commerson’s dolphin was found less than 60 km from shore; whereas Peale’s dolphins occurred over a wider range of distances from the coast, the number of animals sighted usually being larger near or far from the coast. Fitted models indicate overall abundances of approximately 22,000 Commerson’s dolphins and 20,000 Peale’s dolphins in the total area studied. This work provides the first large-scale abundance estimate for Peale’s dolphin in the Atlantic Ocean and an update of population size for Commerson’s dolphin. Additionally, our results contribute to baseline data on suitable habitat conditions for both species in southern Patagonia, which is essential for the implementation of adequate conservation measures.Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9731
Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring
This work received funding from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS pooling initiative).
2015-11-01T00:00:00ZPirotta, EnricoHarwood, JohnThompson, PaulNew, LeslieCheney, BarbaraArso Civil, MonicaHammond, Philip StevenDonovan, Carl RobertLusseau, DavidHuman activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoringFinite presentability and isomorphism of Cayley graphs of monoids
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9711
Two finitely generated monoids are constructed, one finitely presented the other not, whose (directed, unlabelled) Cayley graphs are isomorphic.
2016-10-26T00:00:00ZAwang, Jennifer SylviaPfeiffer, Markus JohannesRuskuc, NikolaTwo finitely generated monoids are constructed, one finitely presented the other not, whose (directed, unlabelled) Cayley graphs are isomorphic.Population scaling in 5 km x 5 km grey and harbour seal usage maps. Note to Scottish Government MMSS/002/15
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9704
2016-10-14T00:00:00ZJones, Esther LaneMorris, ChristopherSmout, Sophie CarolineMcConnell, Bernie JTransverse, propagating velocity perturbations in solar coronal loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9684
As waves and oscillations carry both energy and information, they have enormous potential as a plasma heating mechanism and, through seismology, to provide estimates of local plasma properties which are hard to obtain from direct measurements. Being sufficiently near to allow high-resolution observations, the atmosphere of the Sun forms a natural plasma laboratory. Recent observations have revealed that an abundance of waves and oscillations is present in the solar atmosphere, leading to a renewed interest in wave heating mechanisms. This short review paper gives an overview of recently observed transverse, propagating velocity perturbations in coronal loops. These ubiquitous perturbations are observed to undergo strong damping as they propagate. Using 3D numerical simulations of footpoint-driven transverse waves propagating in a coronal plasma with a cylindrical density structure, in combination with analytical modelling, it is demonstrated that the observed velocity perturbations can be understood in terms of coupling of different wave modes in the inhomogeneous boundaries of the loops. Mode coupling in the inhomogeneous boundary layers of the loops leads to the coupling of the transversal (kink) mode to the azimuthal (Alfven) mode, observed as the decay of the transverse kink oscillations. Both the numerical and analytical results show the spatial profile of the damped wave has a Gaussian shape to begin with, before switching to exponential decay at large heights. In addition, recent analysis of CoMP (Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter) Doppler shift observations of large, off-limb, trans-equatorial loops shows that Fourier power at the apex appears to be higher in the high-frequency part of the spectrum than expected from theoretical models. This excess high-frequency FFT power could be tentative evidence for the onset of a cascade of the low-to-mid frequency waves into (Alfvenic) turbulence.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZDe Moortel, InekePascoe, David JamesWright, Andrew NicholasHood, Alan WilliamAs waves and oscillations carry both energy and information, they have enormous potential as a plasma heating mechanism and, through seismology, to provide estimates of local plasma properties which are hard to obtain from direct measurements. Being sufficiently near to allow high-resolution observations, the atmosphere of the Sun forms a natural plasma laboratory. Recent observations have revealed that an abundance of waves and oscillations is present in the solar atmosphere, leading to a renewed interest in wave heating mechanisms. This short review paper gives an overview of recently observed transverse, propagating velocity perturbations in coronal loops. These ubiquitous perturbations are observed to undergo strong damping as they propagate. Using 3D numerical simulations of footpoint-driven transverse waves propagating in a coronal plasma with a cylindrical density structure, in combination with analytical modelling, it is demonstrated that the observed velocity perturbations can be understood in terms of coupling of different wave modes in the inhomogeneous boundaries of the loops. Mode coupling in the inhomogeneous boundary layers of the loops leads to the coupling of the transversal (kink) mode to the azimuthal (Alfven) mode, observed as the decay of the transverse kink oscillations. Both the numerical and analytical results show the spatial profile of the damped wave has a Gaussian shape to begin with, before switching to exponential decay at large heights. In addition, recent analysis of CoMP (Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter) Doppler shift observations of large, off-limb, trans-equatorial loops shows that Fourier power at the apex appears to be higher in the high-frequency part of the spectrum than expected from theoretical models. This excess high-frequency FFT power could be tentative evidence for the onset of a cascade of the low-to-mid frequency waves into (Alfvenic) turbulence.On the connection between propagating solar coronal disturbances and chromospheric footpoints
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9600
The Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) provides an unparalleled opportunity to explore the (thermal) interface between the chromosphere, transition region, and the coronal plasma observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The SDO/AIA observations of coronal loop footpoints show strong recurring upward propagating signals—“propagating coronal disturbances” (PCDs) with apparent speeds of the order of 100–120 km/s-1. That signal has a clear signature in the slit-jaw images of IRIS in addition to identifiable spectral signatures and diagnostics in the Mg IIh (2803 Å) line. In analyzing the Mg IIh line, we are able to observe the presence of magnetoacoustic shock waves that are also present in the vicinity of the coronal loop footpoints. We see there is enough of a correspondence between the shock propagation in Mg IIh, the evolution of the Si IV line profiles, and the PCD evolution to indicate that these waves are an important ingredient for PCDs. In addition, the strong flows in the jet-like features in the IRIS Si IV slit-jaw images are also associated with PCDs, such that waves and flows both appear to be contributing to the signals observed at the footpoints of PCDs.
2016-09-01T00:00:00ZBryans, PaulMcIntosh, Scott W.De Moortel, InekeDe Pontieu, BartThe Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) provides an unparalleled opportunity to explore the (thermal) interface between the chromosphere, transition region, and the coronal plasma observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The SDO/AIA observations of coronal loop footpoints show strong recurring upward propagating signals—“propagating coronal disturbances” (PCDs) with apparent speeds of the order of 100–120 km/s-1. That signal has a clear signature in the slit-jaw images of IRIS in addition to identifiable spectral signatures and diagnostics in the Mg IIh (2803 Å) line. In analyzing the Mg IIh line, we are able to observe the presence of magnetoacoustic shock waves that are also present in the vicinity of the coronal loop footpoints. We see there is enough of a correspondence between the shock propagation in Mg IIh, the evolution of the Si IV line profiles, and the PCD evolution to indicate that these waves are an important ingredient for PCDs. In addition, the strong flows in the jet-like features in the IRIS Si IV slit-jaw images are also associated with PCDs, such that waves and flows both appear to be contributing to the signals observed at the footpoints of PCDs.Modeling observed decay-less oscillations as resonantly enhanced Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices from transverse MHD waves and their seismological application
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9577
In the highly structured solar corona, resonant absorption is an unavoidable mechanism of energy transfer from global transverse MHD waves to local azimuthal Alfvén waves. Due to its localised nature, a direct detection of this mechanism is extremely difficult. Yet, it is the leading theory explaining the observed fast damping of the global transverse waves. However, at odds with this theoretical prediction, recent observations indicate that in the low amplitude regime such transverse MHD waves can also appear decay-less, a yet unsolved phenomenon. Recent numerical work has shown that Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities (KHI) often accompany transverse MHD waves. In this work, we combine 3D MHD simulations and forward modelling to show that for currently achieved spatial resolution and observed small amplitudes, an apparent decay-less oscillation is obtained. This effect results from the combination of periodic brightenings produced by the KHI and the coherent motion of the KHI vortices amplified by resonant absorption. Such effect is especially clear in emission lines forming at temperatures that capture the boundary dynamics rather than the core, and reflects the low damping character of the local azimuthal Alfvén waves resonantly coupled to the kink mode. Due to phase mixing, the detected period can vary depending on the emission line, with those sensitive to the boundary having shorter periods than those sensitive to the loop core. This allows to estimate the density contrast at the boundary.
2016-10-12T00:00:00ZAntolin, P.De Moortel, InekeVan Doorsselaere, T.Yokoyama, T.In the highly structured solar corona, resonant absorption is an unavoidable mechanism of energy transfer from global transverse MHD waves to local azimuthal Alfvén waves. Due to its localised nature, a direct detection of this mechanism is extremely difficult. Yet, it is the leading theory explaining the observed fast damping of the global transverse waves. However, at odds with this theoretical prediction, recent observations indicate that in the low amplitude regime such transverse MHD waves can also appear decay-less, a yet unsolved phenomenon. Recent numerical work has shown that Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities (KHI) often accompany transverse MHD waves. In this work, we combine 3D MHD simulations and forward modelling to show that for currently achieved spatial resolution and observed small amplitudes, an apparent decay-less oscillation is obtained. This effect results from the combination of periodic brightenings produced by the KHI and the coherent motion of the KHI vortices amplified by resonant absorption. Such effect is especially clear in emission lines forming at temperatures that capture the boundary dynamics rather than the core, and reflects the low damping character of the local azimuthal Alfvén waves resonantly coupled to the kink mode. Due to phase mixing, the detected period can vary depending on the emission line, with those sensitive to the boundary having shorter periods than those sensitive to the loop core. This allows to estimate the density contrast at the boundary.Effects of a scientific echo sounder on the behavior of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus)
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9555
Active echo sounding devices are often employed for commercial or scientific purposes in the foraging habitats of marine mammals. We conducted an experiment off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, USA, to assess whether the behavior of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) changed when exposed to an EK60 scientific echo sounder. We attached digital acoustic recording tags (DTAGs) to nine individuals, five of which were exposed. A hidden Markov model to characterize diving states with and without exposure provided no evidence for a change in foraging behavior. However, generalized estimating equations to model changes in heading variance over the entire tag record under all experimental conditions showed a consistent increase in heading variance during exposure over all values of depth and pitch. This suggests that regardless of behavioral state, the whales changed their heading more frequently when the echo sounder was active. This response could represent increased vigilance in which whales maintained awareness of echo sounder location by increasing their heading variance and provides the first quantitative analysis on reactions of cetaceans to a scientific echo sounder.
This work was supported by award RC-2154 from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and funding from the Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic and NOAA Fisheries, Southeast Region.
2016-09-26T00:00:00ZQuick, NicolaScott-Hayward, LindesaySadykova, DinaraNowacek, DougRead, AndrewActive echo sounding devices are often employed for commercial or scientific purposes in the foraging habitats of marine mammals. We conducted an experiment off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, USA, to assess whether the behavior of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) changed when exposed to an EK60 scientific echo sounder. We attached digital acoustic recording tags (DTAGs) to nine individuals, five of which were exposed. A hidden Markov model to characterize diving states with and without exposure provided no evidence for a change in foraging behavior. However, generalized estimating equations to model changes in heading variance over the entire tag record under all experimental conditions showed a consistent increase in heading variance during exposure over all values of depth and pitch. This suggests that regardless of behavioral state, the whales changed their heading more frequently when the echo sounder was active. This response could represent increased vigilance in which whales maintained awareness of echo sounder location by increasing their heading variance and provides the first quantitative analysis on reactions of cetaceans to a scientific echo sounder.Neutral and non-neutral collisionless plasma equilibria for twisted flux tubes : the Gold-Hoyle model in a background field
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9539
We calculate exact one-dimensional collisionless plasma equilibria for a continuum of flux tube models, for which the total magnetic field is made up of the `force-free' Gold-Hoyle magnetic flux tube embedded in a uniform and anti-parallel background magnetic field. For a sufficiently weak background magnetic field, the axial component of the total magnetic field reverses at some finite radius. The presence of the background magnetic field means that the total system is not exactly force-free, but by reducing its magnitude the departure from force-free can be made as small as desired. The distribution function for each species is a function of the three constants of motion; namely the Hamiltonian and the canonical momenta in the axial and azimuthal directions. Poisson's Equation and Amp ere's Law are solved exactly, and the solution allows either electrically neutral or non-neutral configurations, depending on the values of the bulk ion and electron flows. These equilibria have possible applications in various solar, space and astrophysical contexts, as well as in the laboratory.
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Science and Technology Facilities Council Consolidated Grants ST/K000950/1 and ST/N000609/1, as well as Doctoral Training Grant ST/K502327/1. We also gratefully acknowledge funding from Leverhulme Trust Research Project Grant F/00268/BB.
2016-09-01T00:00:00ZAllanson, Oliver DouglasWilson, FionaNeukirch, ThomasWe calculate exact one-dimensional collisionless plasma equilibria for a continuum of flux tube models, for which the total magnetic field is made up of the `force-free' Gold-Hoyle magnetic flux tube embedded in a uniform and anti-parallel background magnetic field. For a sufficiently weak background magnetic field, the axial component of the total magnetic field reverses at some finite radius. The presence of the background magnetic field means that the total system is not exactly force-free, but by reducing its magnitude the departure from force-free can be made as small as desired. The distribution function for each species is a function of the three constants of motion; namely the Hamiltonian and the canonical momenta in the axial and azimuthal directions. Poisson's Equation and Amp ere's Law are solved exactly, and the solution allows either electrically neutral or non-neutral configurations, depending on the values of the bulk ion and electron flows. These equilibria have possible applications in various solar, space and astrophysical contexts, as well as in the laboratory.Modeling the aggregated exposure and responses of bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus to multiple sources of anthropogenic underwater sound
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9259
Potential responses of marine mammals to anthropogenic underwater sound are usually assessed by researchers and regulators on the basis of exposure to a single, relatively loud sound source. However, marine mammals typically receive sounds from multiple, dynamic sources. We developed a method to aggregate modeled sounds from multiple sources and estimate the sound levels received by individuals. To illustrate the method, we modeled the sound fields of 9 sources associated with oil development and estimated the sound received over 47 d by a population of 10 000 simulated bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus on their annual migration through the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Empirical data were sufficient to parameterize simulations of the distribution of individual whales over time and their range of movement patterns. We ran 2 simulations to estimate the sound exposure history and distances traveled by bowhead whales: one in which they could change their movement paths (avert) in response to set levels of sound and one in which they could not avert. When animals could not avert, about 2% of the simulated population was exposed to root mean square (rms) sound pressure levels (SPL) ≥ 180 dB re 1 mu Pa, a level that regulators in the U.S. often associate with injury. When animals could avert from sound levels that regulators often associate with behavioral disturbance (rms SPL > 160 dB re 1 μPa), <1% of the simulated population was exposed to levels associated with injury. Nevertheless, many simulated bowhead whales received sound levels considerably above ambient throughout their migration. Our method enables estimates of the aggregated level of sound to which populations are exposed over extensive areas and time periods.
This work was supported in part by a contract between BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. and the University of California, Santa Barbara (E.F.), and by the North Slope Borough.
2016-05-02T00:00:00ZEllison, William T.Racca, RobertoClark, Christopher W.Streever, BillFrankel, Adam S.Fleishman, EricaAngliss, RobynBerger, JoelKetten, DarleneGuerra, MelaniaLeu, MatthiasMcKenna, MeganSformo, ToddSouthall, BrandonSuydam, RobertThomas, LenPotential responses of marine mammals to anthropogenic underwater sound are usually assessed by researchers and regulators on the basis of exposure to a single, relatively loud sound source. However, marine mammals typically receive sounds from multiple, dynamic sources. We developed a method to aggregate modeled sounds from multiple sources and estimate the sound levels received by individuals. To illustrate the method, we modeled the sound fields of 9 sources associated with oil development and estimated the sound received over 47 d by a population of 10 000 simulated bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus on their annual migration through the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Empirical data were sufficient to parameterize simulations of the distribution of individual whales over time and their range of movement patterns. We ran 2 simulations to estimate the sound exposure history and distances traveled by bowhead whales: one in which they could change their movement paths (avert) in response to set levels of sound and one in which they could not avert. When animals could not avert, about 2% of the simulated population was exposed to root mean square (rms) sound pressure levels (SPL) ≥ 180 dB re 1 mu Pa, a level that regulators in the U.S. often associate with injury. When animals could avert from sound levels that regulators often associate with behavioral disturbance (rms SPL > 160 dB re 1 μPa), <1% of the simulated population was exposed to levels associated with injury. Nevertheless, many simulated bowhead whales received sound levels considerably above ambient throughout their migration. Our method enables estimates of the aggregated level of sound to which populations are exposed over extensive areas and time periods.Ends of semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9254
We define the notion of the partial order of ends of the Cayley graph of a semigroup. We prove that the structure of the ends of a semigroup is invariant under change of finite generating set and at the same time is inherited by subsemigroups and extensions of finite Rees index. We prove an analogue of Hopf's Theorem, stating that a group has 1, 2 or infinitely many ends, for left cancellative semigroups and that the cardinality of the set of ends is invariant in subsemigroups and extension of finite Green index in left cancellative semigroups.
2016-10-01T00:00:00ZCraik, S.Gray, R.Kilibarda, V.Mitchell, J. D.Ruskuc, N.We define the notion of the partial order of ends of the Cayley graph of a semigroup. We prove that the structure of the ends of a semigroup is invariant under change of finite generating set and at the same time is inherited by subsemigroups and extensions of finite Rees index. We prove an analogue of Hopf's Theorem, stating that a group has 1, 2 or infinitely many ends, for left cancellative semigroups and that the cardinality of the set of ends is invariant in subsemigroups and extension of finite Green index in left cancellative semigroups.Automorphism groups of countable algebraically closed graphs and endomorphisms of the random graph
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9178
We establish links between countable algebraically closed graphs and the endomorphisms of the countable universal graph R. As a consequence we show that, for any countable graph Γ, there are uncountably many maximal subgroups of the endomorphism monoid of R isomorphic to the automorphism group of Γ. Further structural information about End R is established including that Aut Γ arises in uncountably many ways as a Schützenberger group. Similar results are proved for the countable universal directed graph and the countable universal bipartite graph.
2016-05-01T00:00:00ZDolinka, IgorGray, Robert DuncanMcPhee, Jillian DawnMitchell, James DavidQuick, MartynWe establish links between countable algebraically closed graphs and the endomorphisms of the countable universal graph R. As a consequence we show that, for any countable graph Γ, there are uncountably many maximal subgroups of the endomorphism monoid of R isomorphic to the automorphism group of Γ. Further structural information about End R is established including that Aut Γ arises in uncountably many ways as a Schützenberger group. Similar results are proved for the countable universal directed graph and the countable universal bipartite graph.Nest-building males trade off material collection costs with territory value
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9164
Building a structurally robust nest is crucial for reproductive success in many birds. However, we know little about the criteria birds use to select material or where they go to collect it. Here we observed the material collection of male Cape Weavers (Ploceus capensis). Males typically selected long, strong material to build their nests and each male collected material from different locations. Males that built more nests nested in a different area of the colony and flew further to collect nest material than did males that built fewer nests. As these males that flew further to collect material had longer tails and wings and attracted more females to their territories than did males that flew shorter distances, they may have traded off the travel costs of collecting nest materials with benefits gained from holding a territory in a more 'desirable' part of the colony. Nest construction, then, appears to be a multi-dimensional task whereby birds take into account material's structural properties, material proximity to the nest site and territory quality. Males that do this effectively both attract more mates and provide structurally sound nests for their young.
This work was supported by the BBSRC (BB/I019502/1 to SDH and SLM) and Roslin Institute Strategic Grant funding from the BBSRC (SLM).
2016-01-25T00:00:00ZBailey, Ida E.Morgan, Kate V.Oschadleus, H. DieterDeRuiter, Stacy L.Meddle, Simone L.Healy, Susan D.Building a structurally robust nest is crucial for reproductive success in many birds. However, we know little about the criteria birds use to select material or where they go to collect it. Here we observed the material collection of male Cape Weavers (Ploceus capensis). Males typically selected long, strong material to build their nests and each male collected material from different locations. Males that built more nests nested in a different area of the colony and flew further to collect nest material than did males that built fewer nests. As these males that flew further to collect material had longer tails and wings and attracted more females to their territories than did males that flew shorter distances, they may have traded off the travel costs of collecting nest materials with benefits gained from holding a territory in a more 'desirable' part of the colony. Nest construction, then, appears to be a multi-dimensional task whereby birds take into account material's structural properties, material proximity to the nest site and territory quality. Males that do this effectively both attract more mates and provide structurally sound nests for their young.Flexible density surface estimation for spatially explicit capture-recapture surveys
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9147
1. Existing spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) software does not have the ability to fit flexible nonparametric models of animal density. 2. We describe and implement in the R package secrgam, a flexible method for estimating density surfaces from SECR data, using regression splines. 3. Package secrgam is an extension of package secr to implement some models available in the generalised additive model package mvcv. It accommodates density models that are arbitrarily flexible functions of spatially- and temporally-referenced variables. This includes one-dimensional and multi-dimensional smooths of covariates and smooths with interactions. The shape and smoothness of the fitted density surfaces is data-driven and can be determined using AIC or similar criteria. We illustrate use of the package by estimating the density surface from a simulated camera trap survey of leopards. 4. Package secrgam provides a flexible tool for species distribution modelling using SECR data.
2014-07-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, David LouisKidney, Darren1. Existing spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) software does not have the ability to fit flexible nonparametric models of animal density. 2. We describe and implement in the R package secrgam, a flexible method for estimating density surfaces from SECR data, using regression splines. 3. Package secrgam is an extension of package secr to implement some models available in the generalised additive model package mvcv. It accommodates density models that are arbitrarily flexible functions of spatially- and temporally-referenced variables. This includes one-dimensional and multi-dimensional smooths of covariates and smooths with interactions. The shape and smoothness of the fitted density surfaces is data-driven and can be determined using AIC or similar criteria. We illustrate use of the package by estimating the density surface from a simulated camera trap survey of leopards. 4. Package secrgam provides a flexible tool for species distribution modelling using SECR data.On regularity and the word problem for free idempotent generated semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9145
The category of all idempotent generated semigroups with a prescribed structure Ɛ of their idempotents E (called the biordered set) has an initial object called the free idempotent generated semigroup over Ɛ, defined by a presentation over alphabet E, and denoted by IG(Ɛ). Recently, much effort has been put into investigating the structure of semigroups of the form IG(Ɛ), especially regarding their maximal subgroups. In this paper we take these investigations in a new direction by considering the word problem for IG(Ɛ). We prove two principal results, one positive and one negative. We show that, for a finite biordered set E, it is decidable whether a given word w ∈ E∗ represents a regular element; if in addition one assumes that all maximal subgroups of IG(Ɛ) have decidable word problems, then the word problem in IG(Ɛ) restricted to regular words is decidable. On the other hand, we exhibit a biorder Ɛ arising from a finite idempotent semigroup S, such that the word problem for IG(Ɛ) is undecidable, even though all the maximal subgroups have decidable word problems. This is achieved by relating the word problem of IG(Ɛ) to the subgroup membership problem infinitely presented groups.
The research of the first author was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia through the grant No. 174019, and by the grant No. 0851/2015 of the Secretariat of Science and Technological Development of the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. The research of the second author was partially supported by the EPSRC-funded project EP/N033353/1 ‘Special inverse monoids: subgroups, structure, geometry, rewriting systems and the word problem’. The research of the third author was supported by the EPSRC-funded project EP/H011978/1 ‘Automata, Languages, Decidability in Algebra’.
2017-03-03T00:00:00ZDolinka, IgorGray, Robert D.Ruskuc, NikolaThe category of all idempotent generated semigroups with a prescribed structure Ɛ of their idempotents E (called the biordered set) has an initial object called the free idempotent generated semigroup over Ɛ, defined by a presentation over alphabet E, and denoted by IG(Ɛ). Recently, much effort has been put into investigating the structure of semigroups of the form IG(Ɛ), especially regarding their maximal subgroups. In this paper we take these investigations in a new direction by considering the word problem for IG(Ɛ). We prove two principal results, one positive and one negative. We show that, for a finite biordered set E, it is decidable whether a given word w ∈ E∗ represents a regular element; if in addition one assumes that all maximal subgroups of IG(Ɛ) have decidable word problems, then the word problem in IG(Ɛ) restricted to regular words is decidable. On the other hand, we exhibit a biorder Ɛ arising from a finite idempotent semigroup S, such that the word problem for IG(Ɛ) is undecidable, even though all the maximal subgroups have decidable word problems. This is achieved by relating the word problem of IG(Ɛ) to the subgroup membership problem infinitely presented groups.Impact of flux distribution on elementary heating events
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9109
Context. The complex magnetic field on the solar surface has been shown to contain a range of sizes and distributions of magnetic flux structures. The dynamic evolution of this magnetic carpet by photospheric flows provides a continual source of free magnetic energy into the solar atmosphere, that can subsequently be released by magnetic reconnection. Aims. We investigate how the distribution and number of magnetic flux sources impact the energy release and locations of heating through magnetic reconnection driven by slow footpoint motions. Methods. 3D MHD simulations using Lare3D are carried out, where flux-tubes are formed between positive and negative sources placed symmetrically on the lower and upper boundaries of the domain, respectively. The flux-tubes are subjected to rotational driving velocities on the boundaries and are forced to interact and reconnect. Results. Initially, simple flux distributions with two and four sources are compared. In both cases, central current concentrations are formed between the flux-tubes and Ohmic heating occurs. The reconnection and subsequent energy release is delayed in the four source case and is shown to produce more locations of heating, but with smaller magnitudes. Increasing the values of background field between the flux-tubes is shown to delay the onset of reconnection and increases the efficiency of heating in both the two and four source cases. The two flux-tube cases are always more energetic than the corresponding four flux-tube case, however the addition of the background field makes this disparity less significant. A final experiment with a larger number of smaller flux sources is considered and the field evolution and energetics are shown to be remarkably similar to the two source case, indicating the importance of the size and separation of the flux sources relative to the spatial scales of the velocity driver.
This work used the COSMA Data Centric system at Durham University, operated by the Institute for Computational Cosmology on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk. This equipment was funded by a BIS National E-infrastructure capital grant ST/K00042X/1, STFC capital grant ST/K00087X/1, DiRAC Operations grant ST/K003267/1 and Durham University. DiRAC is part of the National E-Infrastructure. I.D.M was funded by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK). The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 647214). J.O was funded by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) by Doctoral Grant [ST/K502327/1].
2016-10-01T00:00:00ZO'Hara, Jennifer PatriciaDe Moortel, InekeContext. The complex magnetic field on the solar surface has been shown to contain a range of sizes and distributions of magnetic flux structures. The dynamic evolution of this magnetic carpet by photospheric flows provides a continual source of free magnetic energy into the solar atmosphere, that can subsequently be released by magnetic reconnection. Aims. We investigate how the distribution and number of magnetic flux sources impact the energy release and locations of heating through magnetic reconnection driven by slow footpoint motions. Methods. 3D MHD simulations using Lare3D are carried out, where flux-tubes are formed between positive and negative sources placed symmetrically on the lower and upper boundaries of the domain, respectively. The flux-tubes are subjected to rotational driving velocities on the boundaries and are forced to interact and reconnect. Results. Initially, simple flux distributions with two and four sources are compared. In both cases, central current concentrations are formed between the flux-tubes and Ohmic heating occurs. The reconnection and subsequent energy release is delayed in the four source case and is shown to produce more locations of heating, but with smaller magnitudes. Increasing the values of background field between the flux-tubes is shown to delay the onset of reconnection and increases the efficiency of heating in both the two and four source cases. The two flux-tube cases are always more energetic than the corresponding four flux-tube case, however the addition of the background field makes this disparity less significant. A final experiment with a larger number of smaller flux sources is considered and the field evolution and energetics are shown to be remarkably similar to the two source case, indicating the importance of the size and separation of the flux sources relative to the spatial scales of the velocity driver.Coronal density structure and its role in wave damping in loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9020
It has long been established that gradients in the Alfvén speed, and in particular the plasma density, are an essential part of the damping of waves in the magnetically closed solar corona by mechanisms such as resonant absorption or phase mixing. While models of wave damping often assume a fixed density gradient, in this paper the self-consistency of such calculations is assessed by examining the temporal evolution of the coronal density. It is shown conceptually that for some coronal structures, density gradients can evolve in a way that the wave damping processes are inhibited. For the case of phase mixing we argue that: (a) wave heating cannot sustain the assumed density structure and (b) inclusion of feedback of the heating on the density gradient can lead to a highly structured density, although on long timescales. In addition, transport coefficients well in excess of classical are required to maintain the observed coronal density. Hence, the heating of closed coronal structures by global oscillations may face problems arising from the assumption of a fixed density gradient and the rapid damping of oscillations may have to be accompanied by a separate (non-wave based) heating mechanism to sustain the required density structuring.
This project has received funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (UK) and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Unionʼs Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No 647214). The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement SOLSPANET (project No. 269299, www.solspanet.eu/about).
2016-05-19T00:00:00ZCargill, PeterDe Moortel, InekeKiddie, GregIt has long been established that gradients in the Alfvén speed, and in particular the plasma density, are an essential part of the damping of waves in the magnetically closed solar corona by mechanisms such as resonant absorption or phase mixing. While models of wave damping often assume a fixed density gradient, in this paper the self-consistency of such calculations is assessed by examining the temporal evolution of the coronal density. It is shown conceptually that for some coronal structures, density gradients can evolve in a way that the wave damping processes are inhibited. For the case of phase mixing we argue that: (a) wave heating cannot sustain the assumed density structure and (b) inclusion of feedback of the heating on the density gradient can lead to a highly structured density, although on long timescales. In addition, transport coefficients well in excess of classical are required to maintain the observed coronal density. Hence, the heating of closed coronal structures by global oscillations may face problems arising from the assumption of a fixed density gradient and the rapid damping of oscillations may have to be accompanied by a separate (non-wave based) heating mechanism to sustain the required density structuring.From one-dimensional fields to Vlasov equilibria : Theory and application of Hermite Polynomials
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8992
We consider the theory and application of a solution method for the inverse problem in collisionless equilibria, namely that of calculating a Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium for a given macroscopic (fluid) equilibrium. Using Jeans' Theorem, the equilibria are expressed as functions of the constants of motion, in the form of a Maxwellian multiplied by an unknown function of the canonical momenta. In this case it is possible to reduce the inverse problem to inverting Weierstrass transforms, which we achieve by using expansions over Hermite Polynomials. Sufficient conditions are found which guarantee the convergence,boundedness and non-negativity of the candidate solution, when satisfied. These conditions are obtained by elementary means, and it is clear how to put them into practice. Illustrative examples of the use of this method with both force-free and non force-free macroscopic equilibria are presented, including the full verification of a recently derived distribution function for the Force-Free Harris Sheet (Allanson et al. (2015)). In the effort to model equilibria with lower values of the plasma beta, solutions for the same macroscopic equilibrium in a new gauge are calculated, with numerical results presented for βpl = 0:05.
2016-06-01T00:00:00ZAllanson, Oliver DouglasNeukirch, ThomasTroscheit, SaschaWilson, FionaWe consider the theory and application of a solution method for the inverse problem in collisionless equilibria, namely that of calculating a Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium for a given macroscopic (fluid) equilibrium. Using Jeans' Theorem, the equilibria are expressed as functions of the constants of motion, in the form of a Maxwellian multiplied by an unknown function of the canonical momenta. In this case it is possible to reduce the inverse problem to inverting Weierstrass transforms, which we achieve by using expansions over Hermite Polynomials. Sufficient conditions are found which guarantee the convergence,boundedness and non-negativity of the candidate solution, when satisfied. These conditions are obtained by elementary means, and it is clear how to put them into practice. Illustrative examples of the use of this method with both force-free and non force-free macroscopic equilibria are presented, including the full verification of a recently derived distribution function for the Force-Free Harris Sheet (Allanson et al. (2015)). In the effort to model equilibria with lower values of the plasma beta, solutions for the same macroscopic equilibrium in a new gauge are calculated, with numerical results presented for βpl = 0:05.Spontaneous reconnection at a separator current layer : 2. Nature of the waves and flows
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8960
Sudden destabilisations of the magnetic field, such as those caused by spontaneous reconnection, will produce waves and/or flows. Here, we investigate the nature of the plasma motions resulting from spontaneous reconnection at a 3D separator. In order to clearly see the perturbations generated by the reconnection, we start from a magnetohydrostatic equilibrium containing two oppositely-signed null points joined by a generic separator along which lies a twisted current layer. The nature of the magnetic reconnection initiated in this equilibrium as a result of an anomalous resistivity is discussed in detail in \cite{Stevenson15_jgra}. The resulting sudden loss of force balance inevitably generates waves that propagate away from the diffusion region carrying the dissipated current. In their wake a twisting stagnation-flow, in planes perpendicular to the separator, feeds flux back into the original diffusion site (the separator) in order to try to regain equilibrium. This flow drives a phase of slow weak impulsive-bursty reconnection that follows on after the initial fast-reconnection phase.
JEHS would like to thank STFC for financial support during her Ph.D and continued support after on the St Andrews SMTG’s STFC consortium grant. CEP also acknowledges support from this same grant.
2015-12-10T00:00:00ZE. H. Stevenson, JulieE. Parnell, ClareSudden destabilisations of the magnetic field, such as those caused by spontaneous reconnection, will produce waves and/or flows. Here, we investigate the nature of the plasma motions resulting from spontaneous reconnection at a 3D separator. In order to clearly see the perturbations generated by the reconnection, we start from a magnetohydrostatic equilibrium containing two oppositely-signed null points joined by a generic separator along which lies a twisted current layer. The nature of the magnetic reconnection initiated in this equilibrium as a result of an anomalous resistivity is discussed in detail in \cite{Stevenson15_jgra}. The resulting sudden loss of force balance inevitably generates waves that propagate away from the diffusion region carrying the dissipated current. In their wake a twisting stagnation-flow, in planes perpendicular to the separator, feeds flux back into the original diffusion site (the separator) in order to try to regain equilibrium. This flow drives a phase of slow weak impulsive-bursty reconnection that follows on after the initial fast-reconnection phase.Spontaneous reconnection at a separator current layer : I. Nature of the reconnection
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8959
Magnetic separators, which lie on the boundary between four topologically-distinct flux domains, are prime locations in three-dimensional magnetic fields for reconnection, especially in the magnetosphere between the planetary and interplanetary magnetic field and also in the solar atmosphere. Little is known about the details of separator reconnection and so the aim of this paper, which is the first of two, is to study the properties of magnetic reconnection at a single separator. Three-dimensional, resistive magnetohydrodynamic numerical experiments are run to study separator reconnection starting from a magnetohydrostatic equilibrium which contains a twisted current layer along a single separator linking a pair of opposite-polarity null points. The resulting reconnection occurs in two phases. The first is short involving rapid-reconnection in which the current at the separator is reduced by a factor of around 2.3. Most ($75\%$) of the magnetic energy is converted during this phase, via Ohmic dissipation, directly into internal energy, with just $0.1\%$ going into kinetic energy. During this phase the reconnection occurs along most of the separator away from its ends (the nulls), but in an asymmetric manner which changes both spatially and temporally over time. The second phase is much longer and involves slow impulsive-bursty reconnection. Again Ohmic heating dominates over viscous damping. Here, the reconnection occurs in small localised bursts at random anywhere along the separator.
2016-01-27T00:00:00ZE. H. Stevenson, JulieE. Parnell, ClareMagnetic separators, which lie on the boundary between four topologically-distinct flux domains, are prime locations in three-dimensional magnetic fields for reconnection, especially in the magnetosphere between the planetary and interplanetary magnetic field and also in the solar atmosphere. Little is known about the details of separator reconnection and so the aim of this paper, which is the first of two, is to study the properties of magnetic reconnection at a single separator. Three-dimensional, resistive magnetohydrodynamic numerical experiments are run to study separator reconnection starting from a magnetohydrostatic equilibrium which contains a twisted current layer along a single separator linking a pair of opposite-polarity null points. The resulting reconnection occurs in two phases. The first is short involving rapid-reconnection in which the current at the separator is reduced by a factor of around 2.3. Most ($75\%$) of the magnetic energy is converted during this phase, via Ohmic dissipation, directly into internal energy, with just $0.1\%$ going into kinetic energy. During this phase the reconnection occurs along most of the separator away from its ends (the nulls), but in an asymmetric manner which changes both spatially and temporally over time. The second phase is much longer and involves slow impulsive-bursty reconnection. Again Ohmic heating dominates over viscous damping. Here, the reconnection occurs in small localised bursts at random anywhere along the separator.A changepoint analysis of spatio-temporal point processes
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8935
This work introduces a Bayesian approach to detecting multiple unknown changepoints over time in the inhomogeneous intensity of a spatio-temporal point process with spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We propose a new method for detecting changes by fitting a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model using the computational efficiency and flexibility of integrated nested Laplace approximation, and by studying the posterior distribution of the potential changepoint positions. In this paper, the context of the problem and the research questions are introduced, then the methodology is presented and discussed in detail. A simulation study assesses the validity and properties of the proposed methods. Lastly, questions are addressed concerning potential unknown changepoints in the intensity of radioactive particles found on Sandside beach, Dounreay, Scotland.
As regards author Linda Altieri, the research work underlying this paper was partially funded by a FIRB 2012 grant (project no. RBFR12URQJ; title: Statistical modeling of environmental phenomena: pollution, meteorology, health and their interactions) for research projects by the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZAltieri, LindaScott, E. MarianCocchi, DanielaIllian, Janine B.This work introduces a Bayesian approach to detecting multiple unknown changepoints over time in the inhomogeneous intensity of a spatio-temporal point process with spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We propose a new method for detecting changes by fitting a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model using the computational efficiency and flexibility of integrated nested Laplace approximation, and by studying the posterior distribution of the potential changepoint positions. In this paper, the context of the problem and the research questions are introduced, then the methodology is presented and discussed in detail. A simulation study assesses the validity and properties of the proposed methods. Lastly, questions are addressed concerning potential unknown changepoints in the intensity of radioactive particles found on Sandside beach, Dounreay, Scotland.PReMiuM : an R package for profile regression mixture models using Dirichlet processes
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8931
PReMiuM is a recently developed R package for Bayesian clustering using a Dirichlet process mixture model. This model is an alternative to regression models, non-parametrically linking a response vector to covariate data through cluster membership (Molitor, Papathomas, Jerrett, and Richardson 2010). The package allows binary, categorical, count and continuous response, as well as continuous and discrete covariates. Additionally, predictions may be made for the response, and missing values for the covariates are handled. Several samplers and label switching moves are implemented along with diagnostic tools to assess convergence. A number of R functions for post-processing of the output are also provided. In addition to tting mixtures, it may additionally be of interest to determine which covariates actively drive the mixture components. This is implemented in the package as variable selection.
2015-03-20T00:00:00ZLiverani, SilviaHastie, DavidAzizi, LamiaePapathomas, MichailRichardson, SylviaPReMiuM is a recently developed R package for Bayesian clustering using a Dirichlet process mixture model. This model is an alternative to regression models, non-parametrically linking a response vector to covariate data through cluster membership (Molitor, Papathomas, Jerrett, and Richardson 2010). The package allows binary, categorical, count and continuous response, as well as continuous and discrete covariates. Additionally, predictions may be made for the response, and missing values for the covariates are handled. Several samplers and label switching moves are implemented along with diagnostic tools to assess convergence. A number of R functions for post-processing of the output are also provided. In addition to tting mixtures, it may additionally be of interest to determine which covariates actively drive the mixture components. This is implemented in the package as variable selection.50-Year Anniversary of Papers by Cormack, Jolly and Seber
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8872
2016-05-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrenceMorgan, Byron J TA conversation with Richard M. Cormack
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8869
Richard Melville Cormack is one of the giants who developed the theory of mark-recapture. Referring to his key paper in 1964, and the papers published back-to-back in 1965 by George Jolly and George Seber, the `Cormack-Jolly-Seber model' is central to the development of mark-recapture methods for estimating survival. Richard was born on 12 March 1935. His father was Principal of Stow College of Engineering in Glasgow. From the age of 7, Richard attended Glasgow Academy, and later entered directly into the second year at Kings College, Cambridge, intending at the time to be a theoretical astronomer. He secured first class honours in Special Mathematics from London as an external student in 1954, and second class honours in Mathematics from Cambridge in 1955. After changing direction, he left Cambridge in 1956 with a Distinction in the Diploma in Mathematical Statistics. Richard's PhD, undertaken while a lecturer at Aberdeen, was completed in 1961. Richard's period at Aberdeen (1956-66) coincided with a golden era for statistics there, and his colleagues included D.J. Finney, Bill Brass, Peter Fisk, David M.G. Wishart, Michael Sampford, Robert Curnow, George Jolly and Andrew Rutherford (the last four being members of the ARC Unit of Statistics). In common with a number of these colleagues, he moved to Edinburgh in 1966, holding a Senior Lectureship there until 1972, when he became the first Professor of Statistics at St Andrews. Richard's groundbreaking contributions to mark-recapture in the early 1960s continued when he addressed the issue of heterogeneity in capture probabilities, publishing a test for heterogeneity in Biometrics in 1966. Then in 1972, in another Biometrics paper, he showed the logic behind capture-recapture estimates, making the methods more accessible and understandable to the user community. In 1981, jointly with Philip North, Richard published important insights into mark-recovery models. His work on log-linear models for mark-recapture led to papers in Biometrika in 1984 (with Ron Sandland) and 1991 (with Peter Jupp), and in Biometrics in 1989, and additionally, to four book chapters. There was also a sequence of Biometrics capture-recapture papers in the 1990s: on modelling covariates (1990), on interval estimation (1992) and on variance estimation (1993). After retirement in 1994, his publications in mark-recapture were mostly as co-author in epidemiology studies. Richard also published on other diverse topics, often with scientists from other disciplines. His 1971 review of classification, read to the Research Committee of RSS and later appearing in JRSS A, is a classic, and while his 1988 exposition on statistical challenges in the environmental sciences (also in JRSS A) has had substantially less impact, it too showed his characteristic incisiveness. His contributions to a wide range of committees, working groups, visiting groups and scientific organisations (including council member for NERC and the Freshwater Biological Association) were substantial. He was elected a member of the ISI in 1962 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1974. He held various offices within the Biometric Society, as Secretary of the British Region 1970-77, Regional President 1990-92 and President of the International Society 1980-81. He served on the Council and various committees of the Royal Statistical Society. Richard married Edith Whittaker on 1st September 1960, at King's College Chapel, Aberdeen. Edith is a plant ecologist, and a past chairperson of the Fife and Kinross Branch of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and of the Friends of St Andrews Botanic Garden: she was also a founding member of the Garden's Education Trust. Their son Andrew is a European Chartered Engineer working for the JANET network, while their daughter Anne is a Marketing Manager. Photography has been a passion of Richard's for many decades. He was lecturer and judge for 40 years for the Scottish Photographic Federation, and was placed on their roll of honour. He has held exhibitions in Dundee (Land of the Berbers), St Andrews (Growth and Form) and Aberdeen (Walking in the North), and has given many talks. Richard firmly established the University of St Andrews as a centre for statistical ecology, a strength that continues today.
2016-05-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrenceRichard Melville Cormack is one of the giants who developed the theory of mark-recapture. Referring to his key paper in 1964, and the papers published back-to-back in 1965 by George Jolly and George Seber, the `Cormack-Jolly-Seber model' is central to the development of mark-recapture methods for estimating survival. Richard was born on 12 March 1935. His father was Principal of Stow College of Engineering in Glasgow. From the age of 7, Richard attended Glasgow Academy, and later entered directly into the second year at Kings College, Cambridge, intending at the time to be a theoretical astronomer. He secured first class honours in Special Mathematics from London as an external student in 1954, and second class honours in Mathematics from Cambridge in 1955. After changing direction, he left Cambridge in 1956 with a Distinction in the Diploma in Mathematical Statistics. Richard's PhD, undertaken while a lecturer at Aberdeen, was completed in 1961. Richard's period at Aberdeen (1956-66) coincided with a golden era for statistics there, and his colleagues included D.J. Finney, Bill Brass, Peter Fisk, David M.G. Wishart, Michael Sampford, Robert Curnow, George Jolly and Andrew Rutherford (the last four being members of the ARC Unit of Statistics). In common with a number of these colleagues, he moved to Edinburgh in 1966, holding a Senior Lectureship there until 1972, when he became the first Professor of Statistics at St Andrews. Richard's groundbreaking contributions to mark-recapture in the early 1960s continued when he addressed the issue of heterogeneity in capture probabilities, publishing a test for heterogeneity in Biometrics in 1966. Then in 1972, in another Biometrics paper, he showed the logic behind capture-recapture estimates, making the methods more accessible and understandable to the user community. In 1981, jointly with Philip North, Richard published important insights into mark-recovery models. His work on log-linear models for mark-recapture led to papers in Biometrika in 1984 (with Ron Sandland) and 1991 (with Peter Jupp), and in Biometrics in 1989, and additionally, to four book chapters. There was also a sequence of Biometrics capture-recapture papers in the 1990s: on modelling covariates (1990), on interval estimation (1992) and on variance estimation (1993). After retirement in 1994, his publications in mark-recapture were mostly as co-author in epidemiology studies. Richard also published on other diverse topics, often with scientists from other disciplines. His 1971 review of classification, read to the Research Committee of RSS and later appearing in JRSS A, is a classic, and while his 1988 exposition on statistical challenges in the environmental sciences (also in JRSS A) has had substantially less impact, it too showed his characteristic incisiveness. His contributions to a wide range of committees, working groups, visiting groups and scientific organisations (including council member for NERC and the Freshwater Biological Association) were substantial. He was elected a member of the ISI in 1962 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1974. He held various offices within the Biometric Society, as Secretary of the British Region 1970-77, Regional President 1990-92 and President of the International Society 1980-81. He served on the Council and various committees of the Royal Statistical Society. Richard married Edith Whittaker on 1st September 1960, at King's College Chapel, Aberdeen. Edith is a plant ecologist, and a past chairperson of the Fife and Kinross Branch of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and of the Friends of St Andrews Botanic Garden: she was also a founding member of the Garden's Education Trust. Their son Andrew is a European Chartered Engineer working for the JANET network, while their daughter Anne is a Marketing Manager. Photography has been a passion of Richard's for many decades. He was lecturer and judge for 40 years for the Scottish Photographic Federation, and was placed on their roll of honour. He has held exhibitions in Dundee (Land of the Berbers), St Andrews (Growth and Form) and Aberdeen (Walking in the North), and has given many talks. Richard firmly established the University of St Andrews as a centre for statistical ecology, a strength that continues today.Avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is limited to pile driving activities
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8856
1. As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts. 2. Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another. 3. Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause. 4. There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p·p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement.
DJFR, GH, VMJ and BM were funded by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) as part of their Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment programme. DT and GH were also funded by NERC/Defra EBAO NE/J004243/1. ELJ was funded under Scottish Government grant MMSS001/01. This work was also supported by National Capability funding from the Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (grant no. SMRU1001). Tags and their deployment in the Thames in 2006 and The Wash were funded by DECC. Tags and their deployment in the Thames in 2012 were commissioned by Zoological Society London, with funding from BBC Wildlife Fund and Sita Trust.
2016-12-01T00:00:00ZRussell, Deborah J. F.Hastie, Gordon D.Thompson, DavidJanik, Vincent M.Hammond, Philip S.Scott-Hayward, Lindesay A. S.Matthiopoulos, JasonJones, Esther L.McConnell, Bernie J.1. As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts. 2. Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another. 3. Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause. 4. There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p·p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement.An efficient acoustic density estimation method with human detectors applied to gibbons in Cambodia
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8842
Some animal species are hard to see but easy to hear. Standard visual methods for estimating population density for such species are often ineffective or inefficient, but methods based on passive acoustics show more promise. We develop spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for territorial vocalising species, in which humans act as an acoustic detector array. We use SECR and estimated bearing data from a single-occasion acoustic survey of a gibbon population in northeastern Cambodia to estimate the density of calling groups. The properties of the estimator are assessed using a simulation study, in which a variety of survey designs are also investigated. We then present a new form of the SECR likelihood for multi-occasion data which accounts for the stochastic availability of animals. In the context of gibbon surveys this allows model-based estimation of the proportion of groups that produce territorial vocalisations on a given day, thereby enabling the density of groups, instead of the density of calling groups, to be estimated. We illustrate the performance of this new estimator by simulation. We show that it is possible to estimate density reliably from human acoustic detections of visually cryptic species using SECR methods. For gibbon surveys we also show that incorporating observers' estimates of bearings to detected groups substantially improves estimator performance. Using the new form of the SECR likelihood we demonstrate that estimates of availability, in addition to population density and detection function parameters, can be obtained from multi-occasion data, and that the detection function parameters are not confounded with the availability parameter. This acoustic SECR method provides a means of obtaining reliable density estimates for territorial vocalising species. It is also efficient in terms of data requirements since it only requires routine survey data. We anticipate that the low-tech field requirements will make this method an attractive option in many situations where populations can be surveyed acoustically by humans.
D. Kidney was supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Doctoral Training Grant studentship (EPSRC grant EP/P505097/1). B. Stevenson was supported by a studentship jointly funded by the University of St Andrews and EPSRC, through the National Centre for Statistical Ecology (EPSRC grant EP/I000917/1).
2016-05-19T00:00:00ZKidney, DarrenRawson, Benjamin M.Borchers, David LouisStevenson, BenMarques, Tiago A.Thomas, LenSome animal species are hard to see but easy to hear. Standard visual methods for estimating population density for such species are often ineffective or inefficient, but methods based on passive acoustics show more promise. We develop spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for territorial vocalising species, in which humans act as an acoustic detector array. We use SECR and estimated bearing data from a single-occasion acoustic survey of a gibbon population in northeastern Cambodia to estimate the density of calling groups. The properties of the estimator are assessed using a simulation study, in which a variety of survey designs are also investigated. We then present a new form of the SECR likelihood for multi-occasion data which accounts for the stochastic availability of animals. In the context of gibbon surveys this allows model-based estimation of the proportion of groups that produce territorial vocalisations on a given day, thereby enabling the density of groups, instead of the density of calling groups, to be estimated. We illustrate the performance of this new estimator by simulation. We show that it is possible to estimate density reliably from human acoustic detections of visually cryptic species using SECR methods. For gibbon surveys we also show that incorporating observers' estimates of bearings to detected groups substantially improves estimator performance. Using the new form of the SECR likelihood we demonstrate that estimates of availability, in addition to population density and detection function parameters, can be obtained from multi-occasion data, and that the detection function parameters are not confounded with the availability parameter. This acoustic SECR method provides a means of obtaining reliable density estimates for territorial vocalising species. It is also efficient in terms of data requirements since it only requires routine survey data. We anticipate that the low-tech field requirements will make this method an attractive option in many situations where populations can be surveyed acoustically by humans.Neonicotinoids target distinct nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and neurons, leading to differential risks to bumblebees
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8793
There is growing concern over the risk to bee populations from neonicotinoid insecticides and the long-term consequences of reduced numbers of insect pollinators to essential ecosystem services and food security. Our knowledge of the risk of neonicotinoids to bees is based on studies of imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and these findings are extrapolated to clothianidin based on its higher potency at nicotinic acetylcholine receptors. This study addresses the specificity and consequences of all three neonicotinoids to determine their relative risk to bumblebees at field-relevant levels (2.5 ppb). We find compound-specific effects at all levels (individual cells, bees and whole colonies in semi-field conditions). Imidacloprid and clothianidin display distinct, overlapping, abilities to stimulate Kenyon cells, indicating the potential to differentially influence bumblebee behavior. Bee immobility was induced only by imidacloprid, and an increased vulnerability to clothianidin toxicity only occurred following chronic exposure to clothianidin or thiamethoxam. At the whole colony level, only thiamethoxam altered the sex ratio (more males present) and only clothianidin increased queen production. Finally, both imidacloprid and thiamethoxam caused deficits in colony strength, while no detrimental effects of clothianidin were observed. Given these findings, neonicotinoid risk needs to be considered independently for each compound and target species.
This research was funded jointly by BBSRC, DEFRA, NERC, the Scottish Government and The Wellcome Trust, under the Insect Pollinators Initiative (UK) grant BB/1000313/1(CNC).
2016-04-28T00:00:00ZMoffat, ChristopherBuckland, Stephen T.Samson, Andrew J.McArthur, RobinChamosa Pino, VictorBollan, Karen A.Huang, Jeffrey T. -J.Connolly, Christopher N.There is growing concern over the risk to bee populations from neonicotinoid insecticides and the long-term consequences of reduced numbers of insect pollinators to essential ecosystem services and food security. Our knowledge of the risk of neonicotinoids to bees is based on studies of imidacloprid and thiamethoxam and these findings are extrapolated to clothianidin based on its higher potency at nicotinic acetylcholine receptors. This study addresses the specificity and consequences of all three neonicotinoids to determine their relative risk to bumblebees at field-relevant levels (2.5 ppb). We find compound-specific effects at all levels (individual cells, bees and whole colonies in semi-field conditions). Imidacloprid and clothianidin display distinct, overlapping, abilities to stimulate Kenyon cells, indicating the potential to differentially influence bumblebee behavior. Bee immobility was induced only by imidacloprid, and an increased vulnerability to clothianidin toxicity only occurred following chronic exposure to clothianidin or thiamethoxam. At the whole colony level, only thiamethoxam altered the sex ratio (more males present) and only clothianidin increased queen production. Finally, both imidacloprid and thiamethoxam caused deficits in colony strength, while no detrimental effects of clothianidin were observed. Given these findings, neonicotinoid risk needs to be considered independently for each compound and target species.Gauging allowable harm limits to cumulative, sub-lethal effects of human activities on wildlife : a case-study approach using two whale populations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8716
As sublethal human pressures on marine wildlife and their habitats increase and interact in complex ways, there is a pressing need for methods to quantify cumulative impacts of these stressors on populations, and policy decisions about allowable harm limits. Few studies quantify population consequences of individual stressors, and fewer quantify synergistic effects. Incorporating all sources of uncertainty can cause predictions to span the range from negligible to catastrophic. Two places were identified to bound this problem through energetic mechanisms that reduce prey available to individuals. First, the US Marine Mammal Protection Act's Potential Biological Removal (PBR) equation was used as a placeholder allowable harm limit to represent the number of animals that can be removed annually without depleting a population below agreed-upon management targets. That rephrased the research question from, “How big could cumulative impacts be?” to “How big would cumulative impacts have to be to exceed an agreed-upon threshold?” Secondly, two data-rich case studies, namely Gulf of Maine humpback and northeast Pacific resident killer whales, were used as examples to parameterize the weakest link, namely between prey availability and demography. Given no additional information, the model predicted that human activities need only reduce prey available to the killer whale population by ~10% to cause a population-level take, through reduced fecundity and/or survival, equivalent to PBR. By contrast, in the humpback population, reduction in prey availability of ~50% was needed to cause a similar, PBR-sized effect. The paper describes an approach – results are merely illustrative. The two case studies differ in prey specialization, life history, and, no doubt, proximity to carrying capacity. This method of inverting the problem refocuses discussions around what the level of prey depletion – via competition with commercial fisheries, displacement from feeding areas through noise-generating activities, or acoustic masking of signals used to detect prey – would have to occur to exceed allowable harm limits set for lethal takes in fisheries or other, more easily quantifiable, human activities.
Rob Williams was supported by a Marie Curie International Incoming Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme (Project CONCEAL, FP7, PIIF-GA-2009-253407).
2016-08-01T00:00:00ZWilliams, RobThomas, LenAshe, ErinClark, Christopher W.Hammond, Philip S.As sublethal human pressures on marine wildlife and their habitats increase and interact in complex ways, there is a pressing need for methods to quantify cumulative impacts of these stressors on populations, and policy decisions about allowable harm limits. Few studies quantify population consequences of individual stressors, and fewer quantify synergistic effects. Incorporating all sources of uncertainty can cause predictions to span the range from negligible to catastrophic. Two places were identified to bound this problem through energetic mechanisms that reduce prey available to individuals. First, the US Marine Mammal Protection Act's Potential Biological Removal (PBR) equation was used as a placeholder allowable harm limit to represent the number of animals that can be removed annually without depleting a population below agreed-upon management targets. That rephrased the research question from, “How big could cumulative impacts be?” to “How big would cumulative impacts have to be to exceed an agreed-upon threshold?” Secondly, two data-rich case studies, namely Gulf of Maine humpback and northeast Pacific resident killer whales, were used as examples to parameterize the weakest link, namely between prey availability and demography. Given no additional information, the model predicted that human activities need only reduce prey available to the killer whale population by ~10% to cause a population-level take, through reduced fecundity and/or survival, equivalent to PBR. By contrast, in the humpback population, reduction in prey availability of ~50% was needed to cause a similar, PBR-sized effect. The paper describes an approach – results are merely illustrative. The two case studies differ in prey specialization, life history, and, no doubt, proximity to carrying capacity. This method of inverting the problem refocuses discussions around what the level of prey depletion – via competition with commercial fisheries, displacement from feeding areas through noise-generating activities, or acoustic masking of signals used to detect prey – would have to occur to exceed allowable harm limits set for lethal takes in fisheries or other, more easily quantifiable, human activities.Capture-recapture abundance estimation using a semi-complete data likelihood approach
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8690
Capture-recapture data are often collected when abundance estimation is of interest. In the presence of unobserved individual heterogeneity, specified on a continuous scale for the capture probabilities, the likelihood is not generally available in closed form, but expressible only as an analytically intractable integral. Model-fitting algorithms to estimate abundance most notably include a numerical approximation for the likelihood or use of a Bayesian data augmentation technique considering the complete data likelihood. We consider a Bayesian hybrid approach, defining a "semi-complete" data likelihood, composed of the product of a complete data likelihood component for individuals seen at least once within the study and a marginal data likelihood component for the individuals not seen within the study, approximated using numerical integration. This approach combines the advantages of the two different approaches, with the semi-complete likelihood component specified as a single integral (over the dimension of the individual heterogeneity component). In addition, the models can be fitted within BUGS/JAGS (commonly used for the Bayesian complete data likelihood approach) but with significantly improved computational efficiency compared to the commonly used super-population data augmentation approaches (between about 10 and 77 times more efficient in the two examples we consider). The semi-complete likelihood approach is flexible and applicable to a range of models, including spatially explicit capture-recapture models. The model-fitting approach is applied to two different datasets corresponding to the closed population model Mh for snowshoe hare data and a spatially explicit capture-recapture model applied to gibbon data.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZKing, RuthT. McClintock, BrettKidney, DarrenBorchers, DavidCapture-recapture data are often collected when abundance estimation is of interest. In the presence of unobserved individual heterogeneity, specified on a continuous scale for the capture probabilities, the likelihood is not generally available in closed form, but expressible only as an analytically intractable integral. Model-fitting algorithms to estimate abundance most notably include a numerical approximation for the likelihood or use of a Bayesian data augmentation technique considering the complete data likelihood. We consider a Bayesian hybrid approach, defining a "semi-complete" data likelihood, composed of the product of a complete data likelihood component for individuals seen at least once within the study and a marginal data likelihood component for the individuals not seen within the study, approximated using numerical integration. This approach combines the advantages of the two different approaches, with the semi-complete likelihood component specified as a single integral (over the dimension of the individual heterogeneity component). In addition, the models can be fitted within BUGS/JAGS (commonly used for the Bayesian complete data likelihood approach) but with significantly improved computational efficiency compared to the commonly used super-population data augmentation approaches (between about 10 and 77 times more efficient in the two examples we consider). The semi-complete likelihood approach is flexible and applicable to a range of models, including spatially explicit capture-recapture models. The model-fitting approach is applied to two different datasets corresponding to the closed population model Mh for snowshoe hare data and a spatially explicit capture-recapture model applied to gibbon data.Consistency in eyewitness reports of aquatic "monsters"
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8676
Little work has been undertaken on the consistency/repeatabilityof reports of natural historical anomalies. Such information is usefulin understanding the reporting process associated with such accountsand distinguishing any underlying biological signal. Here we used intraclasscorrelation as a measure of consistency in descriptions of a variety of quantitative features from a large collection of firsthand accounts of apparentlyunknown aquatic animals (hereafter “monsters”) in each of two differentcases. In the first case, same observer, same encounter (sose), the correlationwas estimated from two different accounts of the same event from thesame witness. In the second case, the correlation was between two differentobservers of the same event (dose). Overall, levels of consistency weresurprisingly high, with length of monster, distance of monster to the witness,and duration of encounter varying between 0.63 and 1. Interestingly,there was no evidence that sose accounts generally had higher consistencythan dose accounts.
2016-03-15T00:00:00ZPaxton, Charles George MackayShine, Adrian J.Little work has been undertaken on the consistency/repeatabilityof reports of natural historical anomalies. Such information is usefulin understanding the reporting process associated with such accountsand distinguishing any underlying biological signal. Here we used intraclasscorrelation as a measure of consistency in descriptions of a variety of quantitative features from a large collection of firsthand accounts of apparentlyunknown aquatic animals (hereafter “monsters”) in each of two differentcases. In the first case, same observer, same encounter (sose), the correlationwas estimated from two different accounts of the same event from thesame witness. In the second case, the correlation was between two differentobservers of the same event (dose). Overall, levels of consistency weresurprisingly high, with length of monster, distance of monster to the witness,and duration of encounter varying between 0.63 and 1. Interestingly,there was no evidence that sose accounts generally had higher consistencythan dose accounts.Recent advances in coronal heating
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8643
The solar corona, the tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, is orders of magnitude hotter than the solar surface. This 'coronal heating problem' requires the identification of a heat source to balance losses due to thermal conduction, radiation and (in some locations) convection. The review papers in this Theo Murphy meeting issue present an overview of recent observational findings, large- and small-scale numerical modelling of physical processes occurring in the solar atmosphere and other aspects which may affect our understanding of the proposed heating mechanisms. At the same time, they also set out the directions and challenges which must be tackled by future research. In this brief introduction, we summarize some of the issues and themes which reoccur throughout this issue.
2015-05-28T00:00:00ZDe Moortel, I.Browning, P.The solar corona, the tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, is orders of magnitude hotter than the solar surface. This 'coronal heating problem' requires the identification of a heat source to balance losses due to thermal conduction, radiation and (in some locations) convection. The review papers in this Theo Murphy meeting issue present an overview of recent observational findings, large- and small-scale numerical modelling of physical processes occurring in the solar atmosphere and other aspects which may affect our understanding of the proposed heating mechanisms. At the same time, they also set out the directions and challenges which must be tackled by future research. In this brief introduction, we summarize some of the issues and themes which reoccur throughout this issue.Is magnetic topology important for heating the solar atmosphere?
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8642
Magnetic fields permeate the entire solar atmosphere weaving an extremely complex pattern on both local and global scales. In order to understand the nature of this tangled web of magnetic fields, its magnetic skeleton, which forms the boundaries between topologically distinct flux domains, may be determined. The magnetic skeleton consists of null points, separatrix surfaces, spines and separators. The skeleton is often used to clearly visualize key elements of the magnetic configuration, but parts of the skeleton are also locations where currents and waves may collect and dissipate. In this review, the nature of the magnetic skeleton on both global and local scales, over solar cycle time scales, is explained. The behaviour of wave pulses in the vicinity of both nulls and separators is discussed and so too is the formation of current layers and reconnection at the same features. Each of these processes leads to heating of the solar atmosphere, but collectively do they provide enough heat, spread over a wide enough area, to explain the energy losses throughout the solar atmosphere? Here, we consider this question for the three different solar regions: active regions, open-field regions and the quiet Sun. We find that the heating of active regions and open-field regions is highly unlikely to be due to reconnection or wave dissipation at topological features, but it is possible that these may play a role in the heating of the quiet Sun. In active regions, the absence of a complex topology may play an important role in allowing large energies to build up and then, subsequently, be explosively released in the form of a solar flare. Additionally, knowledge of the intricate boundaries of open-field regions (which the magnetic skeleton provides) could be very important in determining the main acceleration mechanism(s) of the solar wind.
CEP and JT acknowledge the support of STFC through the St Andrew’s SMTG consolidated grant. JEHS is supported by STFC as a PhD student. SJE is supported STFC through the Durham University Impact Acceleration Account.
2015-05-21T00:00:00ZE. Parnell, C.E. H. Stevenson, J.Threlfall, J.J. Edwards, S.Magnetic fields permeate the entire solar atmosphere weaving an extremely complex pattern on both local and global scales. In order to understand the nature of this tangled web of magnetic fields, its magnetic skeleton, which forms the boundaries between topologically distinct flux domains, may be determined. The magnetic skeleton consists of null points, separatrix surfaces, spines and separators. The skeleton is often used to clearly visualize key elements of the magnetic configuration, but parts of the skeleton are also locations where currents and waves may collect and dissipate. In this review, the nature of the magnetic skeleton on both global and local scales, over solar cycle time scales, is explained. The behaviour of wave pulses in the vicinity of both nulls and separators is discussed and so too is the formation of current layers and reconnection at the same features. Each of these processes leads to heating of the solar atmosphere, but collectively do they provide enough heat, spread over a wide enough area, to explain the energy losses throughout the solar atmosphere? Here, we consider this question for the three different solar regions: active regions, open-field regions and the quiet Sun. We find that the heating of active regions and open-field regions is highly unlikely to be due to reconnection or wave dissipation at topological features, but it is possible that these may play a role in the heating of the quiet Sun. In active regions, the absence of a complex topology may play an important role in allowing large energies to build up and then, subsequently, be explosively released in the form of a solar flare. Additionally, knowledge of the intricate boundaries of open-field regions (which the magnetic skeleton provides) could be very important in determining the main acceleration mechanism(s) of the solar wind.Tracking marine mammals in 3D using electronic tag data
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8591
1. Information about at-depth behaviour of marine mammals is fundamental yet very hard to obtain from direct visual observation. Animal-borne multisensor electronic tags provide a unique window of observation into such behaviours. 2. Electronic tag sensors allow the estimation of the animal's 3-dimensional (3D) orientation, depth and speed. Using tag flow noise level to provide an estimate of animal speed, we extend existing approaches of 3D track reconstruction by allowing the direction of movement to differ from that of the animal's longitudinal axis. 3. Data are processed by a hierarchical Bayesian model that allows processing of multisource data, accounting for measurement errors and testing hypotheses about animal movement by comparing models. 4. We illustrate the approach by reconstructing the 3D track of a 52-min deep dive of a Blainville's beaked whale Mesoplodon densirostris adult male fit with a digital tag (DTAG) in the Bahamas. At depth, the whale alternated regular movements at large speed (>1·5 m s-1) and more complex movements at lower speed (<1·5 m s-1) with diﬀerences between movement and longitudinal axis directions of up to 28°. The reconstructed 3D track agrees closely with independent acoustic-based localizations. 5. The approach is potentially applicable to study the underwater behaviour (e.g. response to anthropogenic disturbances) of a wide variety of species of marine mammals ﬁtted with triaxial magnetometer and accelerometer tags.
Date of Acceptance: 05/03/2015
2015-09-01T00:00:00ZLaplanche, C.Marques, T.A.Thomas, L.1. Information about at-depth behaviour of marine mammals is fundamental yet very hard to obtain from direct visual observation. Animal-borne multisensor electronic tags provide a unique window of observation into such behaviours. 2. Electronic tag sensors allow the estimation of the animal's 3-dimensional (3D) orientation, depth and speed. Using tag flow noise level to provide an estimate of animal speed, we extend existing approaches of 3D track reconstruction by allowing the direction of movement to differ from that of the animal's longitudinal axis. 3. Data are processed by a hierarchical Bayesian model that allows processing of multisource data, accounting for measurement errors and testing hypotheses about animal movement by comparing models. 4. We illustrate the approach by reconstructing the 3D track of a 52-min deep dive of a Blainville's beaked whale Mesoplodon densirostris adult male fit with a digital tag (DTAG) in the Bahamas. At depth, the whale alternated regular movements at large speed (>1·5 m s-1) and more complex movements at lower speed (<1·5 m s-1) with diﬀerences between movement and longitudinal axis directions of up to 28°. The reconstructed 3D track agrees closely with independent acoustic-based localizations. 5. The approach is potentially applicable to study the underwater behaviour (e.g. response to anthropogenic disturbances) of a wide variety of species of marine mammals ﬁtted with triaxial magnetometer and accelerometer tags.Distance sampling with a random scale detection function
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8454
Distance sampling was developed to estimate wildlife abundance from observational surveys with uncertain detection in the search area. We present novel analysis methods for estimating detection probabilities that make use of random effects models to allow for unmodeled heterogeneity in detection. The scale parameter of the half-normal detection function is modeled by means of an intercept plus an error term varying with detections, normally distributed with zero mean and unknown variance. In contrast to conventional distance sampling methods, our approach can deal with long-tailed detection functions without truncation. Compared to a fixed effect covariate approach, we think of the random effect as a covariate with unknown values and integrate over the random effect. We expand the random scale to a mixed scale model by adding fixed effect covariates. We analyzed simulated data with large sample sizes to demonstrate that the code performs correctly for random and mixed effect models. We also generated replicate simulations with more practical sample sizes ((Formula presented.)) and compared the random scale half-normal with the hazard rate detection function. As expected each estimation model was best for different simulation models. We illustrate the mixed effect modeling approach using harbor porpoise vessel survey data where the mixed effect model provided an improved model fit in comparison to a fixed effect model with the same covariates. We propose that a random or mixed effect model of the detection function scale be adopted as one of the standard approaches for fitting detection functions in distance sampling.
Cornelia Oedekoven was supported by a studentship jointly funded by the University of St Andrews and EP-SRC, through the National Centre for Statistical Ecology (EP-SRC Grant EP/C522702/1). Hans Skaug thanks the Center for Stock Assessment Research for facilitating his visit to University of California, Santa Cruz.
2015-12-01T00:00:00ZOedekoven, C.S.Laake, J.L.Skaug, H.J.Distance sampling was developed to estimate wildlife abundance from observational surveys with uncertain detection in the search area. We present novel analysis methods for estimating detection probabilities that make use of random effects models to allow for unmodeled heterogeneity in detection. The scale parameter of the half-normal detection function is modeled by means of an intercept plus an error term varying with detections, normally distributed with zero mean and unknown variance. In contrast to conventional distance sampling methods, our approach can deal with long-tailed detection functions without truncation. Compared to a fixed effect covariate approach, we think of the random effect as a covariate with unknown values and integrate over the random effect. We expand the random scale to a mixed scale model by adding fixed effect covariates. We analyzed simulated data with large sample sizes to demonstrate that the code performs correctly for random and mixed effect models. We also generated replicate simulations with more practical sample sizes ((Formula presented.)) and compared the random scale half-normal with the hazard rate detection function. As expected each estimation model was best for different simulation models. We illustrate the mixed effect modeling approach using harbor porpoise vessel survey data where the mixed effect model provided an improved model fit in comparison to a fixed effect model with the same covariates. We propose that a random or mixed effect model of the detection function scale be adopted as one of the standard approaches for fitting detection functions in distance sampling.Weak collisionless shocks in laser-plasmas
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8442
We obtain a theory describing laminar shock-like structures in a collisionless plasma and examine the parameter limits, in terms of the ion sound Mach number and the electron/ion temperature ratio, within which these structures exist. The essential feature is the inclusion of finite ion temperature with the result that some ions are reflected from a potential ramp. This destroys the symmetry between upstream and downstream regions that would otherwise give the well-known ion solitary wave solution. We have shown earlier (Cairns et al 2014 Phys. Plasmas 21 022112) that such structures may be relevant to problems such as the existence of strong, localized electric fields observed in laser compressed pellets and laser acceleration of ions. Here we present results on the way in which these structures may produce species separation in fusion targets and suggest that it may be possible to use shock ion acceleration for fast ignition.
2015-04-01T00:00:00ZCairns, R. A.Bingham, R.Trines, R. G. M.Norreys, P.We obtain a theory describing laminar shock-like structures in a collisionless plasma and examine the parameter limits, in terms of the ion sound Mach number and the electron/ion temperature ratio, within which these structures exist. The essential feature is the inclusion of finite ion temperature with the result that some ions are reflected from a potential ramp. This destroys the symmetry between upstream and downstream regions that would otherwise give the well-known ion solitary wave solution. We have shown earlier (Cairns et al 2014 Phys. Plasmas 21 022112) that such structures may be relevant to problems such as the existence of strong, localized electric fields observed in laser compressed pellets and laser acceleration of ions. Here we present results on the way in which these structures may produce species separation in fusion targets and suggest that it may be possible to use shock ion acceleration for fast ignition.Particle-in-cell simulations of collisionless magnetic reconnection with a non-uniform guide field
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8386
Results are presented of a first study of collisionless magnetic reconnection starting from a recently found exact nonlinear force-free Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium. The initial state has a Harris sheet magnetic field profile in one direction and a non-uniform guide field in a second direction, resulting in a spatially constant magnetic field strength as well as a constant initial plasma density and plasma pressure. It is found that the reconnection process initially resembles guide field reconnection, but that a gradual transition to anti-parallel reconnection happens as the system evolves. The time evolution of a number of plasma parameters is investigated, and the results are compared with simulations starting from a Harris sheet equilibrium and a Harris sheet plus constant guide field equilibrium.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZWilson, FionaNeukirch, ThomasHesse, MichaelHarrison, Michael G.Stark, Craig R.Results are presented of a first study of collisionless magnetic reconnection starting from a recently found exact nonlinear force-free Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium. The initial state has a Harris sheet magnetic field profile in one direction and a non-uniform guide field in a second direction, resulting in a spatially constant magnetic field strength as well as a constant initial plasma density and plasma pressure. It is found that the reconnection process initially resembles guide field reconnection, but that a gradual transition to anti-parallel reconnection happens as the system evolves. The time evolution of a number of plasma parameters is investigated, and the results are compared with simulations starting from a Harris sheet equilibrium and a Harris sheet plus constant guide field equilibrium.Description and seasonal detection of two potential whale calls recorded in the Indian Ocean
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8382
Unidentified acoustic signals are recorded by hydrophones placed in the world's oceans. Some of these sounds are suspected to originate from marine mammals. In this study, two acoustic signals recorded by two arrays at Diego Garcia in the northern Indian Ocean are described. Data were available between January 2002 and December 2003. Signals were detected manually using long-term spectral average plots. Time and frequency measurements were taken from a sample of both signals. The first unidentified signal [Diego Garcia Downsweep (DGD)] consisted of two main components. The mean frequency range of the entire signal was 19.3-45.0 Hz, with a mean duration of 36.5 s (n = 22). Detections of DGD at the northern array peaked in the austral summer, though detections at the southern array peaked during winter and spring. The second unidentified signal [Diego Garcia Croak (DGC)] consisted of one component with a mean frequency range of 16.9-49.6 Hz. The mean duration of the signal was 13.1 s (n = 10). Detections of DGC did not follow a clear seasonal pattern. These signals followed characteristics of biological sources, suggesting that they could be whale calls. Fin whale calls and possible blue whales D-calls were also identified in the data.
2015-09-01T00:00:00ZSousa, Andreia GHarris, DanielleUnidentified acoustic signals are recorded by hydrophones placed in the world's oceans. Some of these sounds are suspected to originate from marine mammals. In this study, two acoustic signals recorded by two arrays at Diego Garcia in the northern Indian Ocean are described. Data were available between January 2002 and December 2003. Signals were detected manually using long-term spectral average plots. Time and frequency measurements were taken from a sample of both signals. The first unidentified signal [Diego Garcia Downsweep (DGD)] consisted of two main components. The mean frequency range of the entire signal was 19.3-45.0 Hz, with a mean duration of 36.5 s (n = 22). Detections of DGD at the northern array peaked in the austral summer, though detections at the southern array peaked during winter and spring. The second unidentified signal [Diego Garcia Croak (DGC)] consisted of one component with a mean frequency range of 16.9-49.6 Hz. The mean duration of the signal was 13.1 s (n = 10). Detections of DGC did not follow a clear seasonal pattern. These signals followed characteristics of biological sources, suggesting that they could be whale calls. Fin whale calls and possible blue whales D-calls were also identified in the data.Particle dynamics in a non-flaring solar active region model
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8203
The aim of this work is to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a (observationally-driven) 3D MHD model of the solar atmosphere above a slowly evolving, non-flaring active region. We use a relativistic guiding-centre particle code to investigate particle acceleration in a single snapshot of the 3D MHD simulation. Despite the lack of flare-like behaviour in the active region, direct acceleration of electrons and protons to non-thermal energies (≲ 42 MeV) was found, yielding spectra with high-energy tails which conform to a power law. Examples of particle dynamics, including particle trapping caused by local electric rather than magnetic field effects, are observed and discussed, together with implications for future experiments which simulate non-flaring active region heating and reconnection.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZThrelfall, J.-A. Bourdin, Ph.Neukirch, T.E. Parnell, C.The aim of this work is to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a (observationally-driven) 3D MHD model of the solar atmosphere above a slowly evolving, non-flaring active region. We use a relativistic guiding-centre particle code to investigate particle acceleration in a single snapshot of the 3D MHD simulation. Despite the lack of flare-like behaviour in the active region, direct acceleration of electrons and protons to non-thermal energies (≲ 42 MeV) was found, yielding spectra with high-energy tails which conform to a power law. Examples of particle dynamics, including particle trapping caused by local electric rather than magnetic field effects, are observed and discussed, together with implications for future experiments which simulate non-flaring active region heating and reconnection.Magnetohydrostatic modelling of stellar coronae
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8067
We introduce to the stellar physics community a method of modelling stellar coronae that can be considered to be an extension of the potential field. In this approach, the magnetic field is coupled to the background atmosphere. The model is magnetohydrostatic and is a balance between the Lorentz force, the pressure gradient and gravity. Analytical solutions are possible and we consider a particular class of equilibria in this paper. The model contains two free parameters and the effects of these on both the geometry and topology of the coronal magnetic field are investigated. A demonstration of the approach is given using a magnetogram derived from Zeeman–Doppler imaging of the 0.75 M⊙ M-dwarf star GJ 182.
2016-02-11T00:00:00ZMacTaggart, DavidGregory, ScottNeukirch, ThomasDonati, Jean-FrancoisWe introduce to the stellar physics community a method of modelling stellar coronae that can be considered to be an extension of the potential field. In this approach, the magnetic field is coupled to the background atmosphere. The model is magnetohydrostatic and is a balance between the Lorentz force, the pressure gradient and gravity. Analytical solutions are possible and we consider a particular class of equilibria in this paper. The model contains two free parameters and the effects of these on both the geometry and topology of the coronal magnetic field are investigated. A demonstration of the approach is given using a magnetogram derived from Zeeman–Doppler imaging of the 0.75 M⊙ M-dwarf star GJ 182.A single-station method for the detection, classification and location of fin whale calls using ocean-bottom seismic stations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8064
Passive seismic monitoring in the oceans uses long-term deployments of Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs). An OBS usually records the three components of ground motion and pressure, typically at 100Hz. This makes the OBS an ideal tool to investigate fin and blue whales that vocalize at frequencies below 45Hz. Previous applications of OBS data to locate whale calls have relied on single channel analyses that disregard the information that is conveyed by the horizontal seismic channels. Recently, Harris, Matias, Thomas, Harwood, and Geissler [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 3522-3535 (2013)] presented a method that used all four channels recorded by one OBS to derive the range and azimuth of fin whale calls. In this work, the detection, classification, and ranging of calls using this four-channel method were further investigated, focusing on methods to increase the accuracy of range estimates to direct path arrivals. Corrections to account for the influences of the sound speed in the water layer and the velocity structure in the top strata of the seabed were considered. The single station method discussed here is best implemented when OBSs have been deployed in deep water on top of seabed strata with low P-wave velocity. These conditions maximize the ability to detect and estimate ranges to fin whale calls.
2015-07-01T00:00:00ZMatias, L.Harris, D.Passive seismic monitoring in the oceans uses long-term deployments of Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBSs). An OBS usually records the three components of ground motion and pressure, typically at 100Hz. This makes the OBS an ideal tool to investigate fin and blue whales that vocalize at frequencies below 45Hz. Previous applications of OBS data to locate whale calls have relied on single channel analyses that disregard the information that is conveyed by the horizontal seismic channels. Recently, Harris, Matias, Thomas, Harwood, and Geissler [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 134, 3522-3535 (2013)] presented a method that used all four channels recorded by one OBS to derive the range and azimuth of fin whale calls. In this work, the detection, classification, and ranging of calls using this four-channel method were further investigated, focusing on methods to increase the accuracy of range estimates to direct path arrivals. Corrections to account for the influences of the sound speed in the water layer and the velocity structure in the top strata of the seabed were considered. The single station method discussed here is best implemented when OBSs have been deployed in deep water on top of seabed strata with low P-wave velocity. These conditions maximize the ability to detect and estimate ranges to fin whale calls.An MHD avalanche in a multi-threaded coronal loop
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8061
For the first time, we demonstrate how an MHD avalanche might occur in a multi-threaded coronal loop. Considering 23 non-potential magnetic threads within a loop, we use 3D MHD simulations to show that only one thread needs to be unstable in order to start an avalanche even when the others are below marginal stability. This has significant implications for coronal heating in that it provides for energy dissipation with a trigger mechanism. The instability of the unstable thread follows the evolution determined in many earlier investigations. However, once one stable thread is disrupted, it coalesces with a neighbouring thread and this process disrupts other nearby threads. Coalescence with these disrupted threads then occurs leading to the disruption of yet more threads as the avalanche develops. Magnetic energy is released in discrete bursts as the surrounding stable threads are disrupted. The volume integrated heating, as a function of time, shows short spikes suggesting that the temporal form of the heating is more like that of \textit{nanoflares} than of constant heating.
We acknowledge the financial support of STFC through the Consolidated grants to the University of St Andrews and the University of Manchester.
2016-01-18T00:00:00ZHood, Alan WilliamCargill, PeterBrowning, PhilippaTam, KuanFor the first time, we demonstrate how an MHD avalanche might occur in a multi-threaded coronal loop. Considering 23 non-potential magnetic threads within a loop, we use 3D MHD simulations to show that only one thread needs to be unstable in order to start an avalanche even when the others are below marginal stability. This has significant implications for coronal heating in that it provides for energy dissipation with a trigger mechanism. The instability of the unstable thread follows the evolution determined in many earlier investigations. However, once one stable thread is disrupted, it coalesces with a neighbouring thread and this process disrupts other nearby threads. Coalescence with these disrupted threads then occurs leading to the disruption of yet more threads as the avalanche develops. Magnetic energy is released in discrete bursts as the surrounding stable threads are disrupted. The volume integrated heating, as a function of time, shows short spikes suggesting that the temporal form of the heating is more like that of \textit{nanoflares} than of constant heating.Using species proportions to quantify turnover in biodiversity
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8033
Quantifying species turnover is an important aspect of biodiversity monitoring. Turnover measures are usually based on species presence/absence data, reflecting the rate at which species are replaced. However, measures that reflect the rate at which individuals of a species are replaced by individuals of another species are far more sensitive to change. In this paper, we propose families of turnover measures that reflect changes in species proportions. We study the properties of our measures, and use simulation to assess their success in detecting turnover. Using data on the British farmland bird community from the breeding bird survey, we evaluate our measures to quantify temporal turnover and how it varies across the British mainland.
We are very grateful to all the volunteers who have contributed to the BBS. Yuan was funded by EPSRC/NERC grant EP/1000917/1. Harrison was funded by the Scottish Government’s Centre of Expertise ClimateXChange (www.climatexchange.org.uk).
2016-06-01T00:00:00ZYuan, YuanBuckland, Stephen TerrenceHarrison, PhilFoss, SergeyJohnston, AlisonQuantifying species turnover is an important aspect of biodiversity monitoring. Turnover measures are usually based on species presence/absence data, reflecting the rate at which species are replaced. However, measures that reflect the rate at which individuals of a species are replaced by individuals of another species are far more sensitive to change. In this paper, we propose families of turnover measures that reflect changes in species proportions. We study the properties of our measures, and use simulation to assess their success in detecting turnover. Using data on the British farmland bird community from the breeding bird survey, we evaluate our measures to quantify temporal turnover and how it varies across the British mainland.Particle acceleration at reconnecting separator current layers
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8001
The aim of this work is to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a 3D MHD model of a reconnecting magnetic separator. We use a relativistic guiding-centre test-particle code to investigate electron and proton acceleration in snapshots from 3D MHD separator reconnection experiments, and compare the results with findings from an analytical separator reconnection model studied in a previous investigation. The behaviour (and acceleration) of large distributions of particles are examined in detail for both analytical and numerical separator reconnection models. Differences in acceleration sites are recovered and discussed, together with the dependence of final particle energy ranges upon the dimensions of the models and the stage of the (time-dependent) MHD reconnection event. We discuss the implications of these results for observed magnetic separators in the solar corona.
2016-01-01T00:00:00ZThrelfall, J.E. H. Stevenson, J.E. Parnell, C.Neukirch, T.The aim of this work is to investigate and characterise particle behaviour in a 3D MHD model of a reconnecting magnetic separator. We use a relativistic guiding-centre test-particle code to investigate electron and proton acceleration in snapshots from 3D MHD separator reconnection experiments, and compare the results with findings from an analytical separator reconnection model studied in a previous investigation. The behaviour (and acceleration) of large distributions of particles are examined in detail for both analytical and numerical separator reconnection models. Differences in acceleration sites are recovered and discussed, together with the dependence of final particle energy ranges upon the dimensions of the models and the stage of the (time-dependent) MHD reconnection event. We discuss the implications of these results for observed magnetic separators in the solar corona.Well quasi-order in combinatorics : embeddings and homomorphisms
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7963
The notion of well quasi-order (wqo) from the theory of ordered sets often arises naturally in contexts where one deals with infinite collections of structures which can somehow be compared, and it then represents a useful discriminator between ‘tame’ and ‘wild’ such classes. In this article we survey such situations within combinatorics, and attempt to identify promising directions for further research. We argue that these are intimately linked with a more systematic and detailed study of homomorphisms in combinatorics.
2015-07-01T00:00:00ZHuczynska, SophieRuskuc, NikThe notion of well quasi-order (wqo) from the theory of ordered sets often arises naturally in contexts where one deals with infinite collections of structures which can somehow be compared, and it then represents a useful discriminator between ‘tame’ and ‘wild’ such classes. In this article we survey such situations within combinatorics, and attempt to identify promising directions for further research. We argue that these are intimately linked with a more systematic and detailed study of homomorphisms in combinatorics.Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7921
North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.
This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.
2015-11-04T00:00:00ZOedekoven, Cornelia SabrinaFleishman, EricaHamilton, PhilipClark, James S.Schick, Robert SchillingNorth Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.Magneto-static modeling of the mixed plasma Beta solar atmosphere based on SUNRISE/IMaX data
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7887
Our aim is to model the 3D magnetic field structure of the upper solar atmosphere, including regions of non-negligible plasma beta. We use high-resolution photospheric magnetic field measurements from SUNRISE/IMaX as boundary condition for a magneto-static magnetic field model. The high resolution of IMaX allows us to resolve the interface region between photosphere and corona, but modelling this region is challenging for the following reasons. While the coronal magnetic field is thought to be force-free (the Lorentz-force vanishes), this is not the case in the mixed plasma β environment in the photosphere and lower chromosphere. In our model, pressure gradients and gravity forces are taken self-consistently into account and compensate the non-vanishing Lorentz-force. Above a certain height (about 2 Mm) the non-magnetic forces become very weak and consequently the magnetic field becomes almost force-free. Here we apply a linear approach, where the electric current density consists of a superposition of a field-line parallel current and a current perpendicular to the Sun’s gravity field. We illustrate the prospects and limitations of this approach and give an outlook for an extension towards a non-linear model.
TN acknowledges support by the U.K.’s Science and Technology Facilities Council and would like to thank the MPS for its hospitality during a visit in December 2014.
2015-12-01T00:00:00ZWiegelmann, ThomasNeukirch, ThomasNickeler, DieterSolanki, SamiMartinez Pillet, ValentinBorrero, Juan ManuleOur aim is to model the 3D magnetic field structure of the upper solar atmosphere, including regions of non-negligible plasma beta. We use high-resolution photospheric magnetic field measurements from SUNRISE/IMaX as boundary condition for a magneto-static magnetic field model. The high resolution of IMaX allows us to resolve the interface region between photosphere and corona, but modelling this region is challenging for the following reasons. While the coronal magnetic field is thought to be force-free (the Lorentz-force vanishes), this is not the case in the mixed plasma β environment in the photosphere and lower chromosphere. In our model, pressure gradients and gravity forces are taken self-consistently into account and compensate the non-vanishing Lorentz-force. Above a certain height (about 2 Mm) the non-magnetic forces become very weak and consequently the magnetic field becomes almost force-free. Here we apply a linear approach, where the electric current density consists of a superposition of a field-line parallel current and a current perpendicular to the Sun’s gravity field. We illustrate the prospects and limitations of this approach and give an outlook for an extension towards a non-linear model.Acoustic sequences in non-human animals : a tutorial review and prospectus
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7848
Animal acoustic communication often takes the form of complex sequences, made up of multiple distinct acoustic units. Apart from the well-known example of birdsong, other animals such as insects, amphibians,and mammals (including bats, rodents, primates, and cetaceans) also generate complex acoustic sequences. Occasionally, such as with birdsong, the adaptive role of these sequences seems clear (e.g. mate attraction and territorial defence). More often however, researchers have only begun to characterise – let alone understand – the significance and meaning of acoustic sequences. Hypotheses abound, but there is little agreement as to how sequences should be defined and analysed. Our review aims to outline suitable methods for testing these hypotheses, and to describe the major limitations to our current and near-future knowledge on questions of acoustic sequences. This review and prospectus is the result of a collaborative effort between 43 scientists from the fields of animal behaviour, ecology and evolution, signal processing, machine learning,quantitative linguistics, and information theory, who gathered for a 2013 workshop entitled, ‘Analysing vocal sequences in animals’. Our goal is to present not just a review of the state of the art, but to propose a methodological framework that summarises what we suggest are the best practices for research in this field,across taxa and across disciplines. We also provide a tutorial-style introduction to some of the most promising algorithmic approaches for analysing sequences. We divide our review into three sections: identifying the distinct units of an acoustic sequence, describing the different ways that information can be contained within a sequence, and analysing the structure of that sequence. Each of these sections is further subdivided to address the key questions and approaches in that area. We propose a uniform, systematic, and comprehensive approach to studying sequences, with the goal of clarifying research terms used in different fields, and facilitating collaboration and comparative studies. Allowing greater interdisciplinary collaboration will facilitate the investigation of many important questions in the evolution of communication and sociality.
2016-02-01T00:00:00ZKershenbaum, ArikBlumstein, DanRoch, MarieAkçay, ÇaglarBackus, GregoryBee, Mark A.Bohn, KirstenCao, YanCarter, GeraldCäsar, CristianeCoen, MichaelDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnDoyle, LauranceEdelman, ShimonFerrer-i-Cancho, RamonFreeberg, Todd M.Garland, Ellen ClareGustison, MorganHarley, Heidi E.Huetz, ChloéHughes, MelissaBruno, Julia HylandIlany, AmiyaalJin, Dezhe Z.Johnson, MichaelJu, ChenghuiKarnowski, JeremyLohr, BernardManser, MartaMcCowan, BrendaMercado III, EduardoNarins, Peter M.Piel, AlexRice, MeganSalmi, RobertaSasahara, KazutoshiSayigh, LaelaShiu, YuTaylor, CharlesVallejo, Edgar E.Waller, SaraZamora-Gutierrez, VeronicaAnimal acoustic communication often takes the form of complex sequences, made up of multiple distinct acoustic units. Apart from the well-known example of birdsong, other animals such as insects, amphibians,and mammals (including bats, rodents, primates, and cetaceans) also generate complex acoustic sequences. Occasionally, such as with birdsong, the adaptive role of these sequences seems clear (e.g. mate attraction and territorial defence). More often however, researchers have only begun to characterise – let alone understand – the significance and meaning of acoustic sequences. Hypotheses abound, but there is little agreement as to how sequences should be defined and analysed. Our review aims to outline suitable methods for testing these hypotheses, and to describe the major limitations to our current and near-future knowledge on questions of acoustic sequences. This review and prospectus is the result of a collaborative effort between 43 scientists from the fields of animal behaviour, ecology and evolution, signal processing, machine learning,quantitative linguistics, and information theory, who gathered for a 2013 workshop entitled, ‘Analysing vocal sequences in animals’. Our goal is to present not just a review of the state of the art, but to propose a methodological framework that summarises what we suggest are the best practices for research in this field,across taxa and across disciplines. We also provide a tutorial-style introduction to some of the most promising algorithmic approaches for analysing sequences. We divide our review into three sections: identifying the distinct units of an acoustic sequence, describing the different ways that information can be contained within a sequence, and analysing the structure of that sequence. Each of these sections is further subdivided to address the key questions and approaches in that area. We propose a uniform, systematic, and comprehensive approach to studying sequences, with the goal of clarifying research terms used in different fields, and facilitating collaboration and comparative studies. Allowing greater interdisciplinary collaboration will facilitate the investigation of many important questions in the evolution of communication and sociality.Dose response severity functions for acoustic disturbance in cetaceans using recurrent event survival analysis
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7845
Behavioral response studies (BRSs) aim to enhance our understanding of the behavior changes made by animals in response to specific exposure levels of different stimuli, often presented in an increasing dosage. Here, we focus on BRSs that aim to understand behavioral responses of free-ranging whales and dolphins to manmade acoustic signals (although the methods are applicable more generally). One desired outcome of these studies is dose-response functions relevant to different species, signals and contexts. We adapted and applied recurrent event survival analysis (Cox proportional hazard models) to data from the 3S BRS project, where multiple behavioral responses of different severities had been observed per experimental exposure and per individual based upon expert scoring. We included species, signal type, exposure number and behavioral state prior to exposure as potential covariates. The best model included all main effect terms, with the exception of exposure number, as well as two interaction terms. The interactions between signal and behavioral state, and between species and behavioral state highlighted that the sensitivity of animals to different signal types (a 6–7 kHz upsweep sonar signal [MFAS] or a 1–2 kHz upsweep sonar signal [LFAS]) depended on their behavioral state (feeding or nonfeeding), and this differed across species. Of the three species included in this analysis (sperm whale [Physeter macrocephalus], killer whale [Orcinus orca] and long-finned pilot whale [Globicephala melas]), killer whales were consistently the most likely to exhibit behavioral responses to naval sonar exposure. We conclude that recurrent event survival analysis provides an effective framework for fitting dose-response severity functions to data from behavioral response studies. It can provide outputs that can help government and industry to evaluate the potential impacts of anthropogenic sound production in the ocean.
2015-11-20T00:00:00ZHarris, Catriona MSadykova, DinaraDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnTyack, Peter LloydMiller, PatrickKvadsheim, PetterLam, Frans-PeterThomas, LenBehavioral response studies (BRSs) aim to enhance our understanding of the behavior changes made by animals in response to specific exposure levels of different stimuli, often presented in an increasing dosage. Here, we focus on BRSs that aim to understand behavioral responses of free-ranging whales and dolphins to manmade acoustic signals (although the methods are applicable more generally). One desired outcome of these studies is dose-response functions relevant to different species, signals and contexts. We adapted and applied recurrent event survival analysis (Cox proportional hazard models) to data from the 3S BRS project, where multiple behavioral responses of different severities had been observed per experimental exposure and per individual based upon expert scoring. We included species, signal type, exposure number and behavioral state prior to exposure as potential covariates. The best model included all main effect terms, with the exception of exposure number, as well as two interaction terms. The interactions between signal and behavioral state, and between species and behavioral state highlighted that the sensitivity of animals to different signal types (a 6–7 kHz upsweep sonar signal [MFAS] or a 1–2 kHz upsweep sonar signal [LFAS]) depended on their behavioral state (feeding or nonfeeding), and this differed across species. Of the three species included in this analysis (sperm whale [Physeter macrocephalus], killer whale [Orcinus orca] and long-finned pilot whale [Globicephala melas]), killer whales were consistently the most likely to exhibit behavioral responses to naval sonar exposure. We conclude that recurrent event survival analysis provides an effective framework for fitting dose-response severity functions to data from behavioral response studies. It can provide outputs that can help government and industry to evaluate the potential impacts of anthropogenic sound production in the ocean.A general framework for animal density estimation from acoustic detections across a fixed microphone array
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7786
Acoustic monitoring can be an efficient, cheap, non-invasive alternative to physical trapping of individuals. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods have been proposed to estimate calling animal abundance and density from data collected by a fixed array of microphones. However, these methods make some assumptions that are unlikely to hold in many situations, and the consequences of violating these are yet to be investigated. We generalize existing acoustic SECR methodology, enabling these methods to be used in a much wider variety of situations. We incorporate time-of-arrival (TOA) data collected by the microphone array, increasing the precision of calling animal density estimates. We use our method to estimate calling male density of the Cape Peninsula Moss Frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. Our method gives rise to an estimator of calling animal density that has negligible bias, and 95% confidence intervals with appropriate coverage. We show that using TOA information can substantially improve estimate precision. Our analysis of the A. lightfooti data provides the first statistically rigorous estimate of calling male density for an anuran population using a microphone array. This method fills a methodological gap in the monitoring of frog populations and is applicable to acoustic monitoring of other species that call or vocalize.
Funding for the frog survey was received from the National Geographic Society/Waitt Grants Program (No. W184-11). The EPSRC and NERC helped to fund this research through a PhD grant (No. EP/I000917/1).
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZStevenson, B.C.Borchers, D.L.Altwegg, R.Swift, R.J.Gillespie, D.M.Measey, G.J.Acoustic monitoring can be an efficient, cheap, non-invasive alternative to physical trapping of individuals. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods have been proposed to estimate calling animal abundance and density from data collected by a fixed array of microphones. However, these methods make some assumptions that are unlikely to hold in many situations, and the consequences of violating these are yet to be investigated. We generalize existing acoustic SECR methodology, enabling these methods to be used in a much wider variety of situations. We incorporate time-of-arrival (TOA) data collected by the microphone array, increasing the precision of calling animal density estimates. We use our method to estimate calling male density of the Cape Peninsula Moss Frog Arthroleptella lightfooti. Our method gives rise to an estimator of calling animal density that has negligible bias, and 95% confidence intervals with appropriate coverage. We show that using TOA information can substantially improve estimate precision. Our analysis of the A. lightfooti data provides the first statistically rigorous estimate of calling male density for an anuran population using a microphone array. This method fills a methodological gap in the monitoring of frog populations and is applicable to acoustic monitoring of other species that call or vocalize.Passive acoustic monitoring of beaked whale densities in the Gulf of Mexico
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7779
Beaked whales are deep diving elusive animals, difficult to census with conventional visual surveys. Methods are presented for the density estimation of beaked whales, using passive acoustic monitoring data collected at sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from the period during and following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010–2013). Beaked whale species detected include: Gervais’ (Mesoplodon europaeus), Cuvier’s (Ziphius cavirostris), Blainville’s (Mesoplodon densirostris) and an unknown species of Mesoplodon sp. (designated as Beaked Whale Gulf — BWG). For Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales, we estimated weekly animal density using two methods, one based on the number of echolocation clicks, and another based on the detection of animal groups during 5 min time-bins. Density estimates derived from these two methods were in good general agreement. At two sites in the western GOM, Gervais’ beaked whales were present throughout the monitoring period, but Cuvier’s beaked whales were present only seasonally, with periods of low density during the summer and higher density in the winter. At an eastern GOM site, both Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales had a high density throughout the monitoring period.
Funding to support the tag data was also received from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.
2015-11-12T00:00:00ZHildebrand, JohnBaumann-Pickering, SimoneFrasier, KaitlinTrickey, JenniferMerkens, KarlinaWiggins, SeanMcDonald, MarkGarrison, LanceHarris, DanielleMarques, Tiago A.Thomas, LenBeaked whales are deep diving elusive animals, difficult to census with conventional visual surveys. Methods are presented for the density estimation of beaked whales, using passive acoustic monitoring data collected at sites in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from the period during and following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010–2013). Beaked whale species detected include: Gervais’ (Mesoplodon europaeus), Cuvier’s (Ziphius cavirostris), Blainville’s (Mesoplodon densirostris) and an unknown species of Mesoplodon sp. (designated as Beaked Whale Gulf — BWG). For Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales, we estimated weekly animal density using two methods, one based on the number of echolocation clicks, and another based on the detection of animal groups during 5 min time-bins. Density estimates derived from these two methods were in good general agreement. At two sites in the western GOM, Gervais’ beaked whales were present throughout the monitoring period, but Cuvier’s beaked whales were present only seasonally, with periods of low density during the summer and higher density in the winter. At an eastern GOM site, both Gervais’ and Cuvier’s beaked whales had a high density throughout the monitoring period.Occurrence, distribution and abundance of cetaceans in Onslow Bay, North Carolina, USA
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7772
In this paper the occurrence, distribution and abundance of cetaceans in offshore waters of Onslow Bay, North Carolina, USA is described. Between June 2007 and June 2010 monthly aerial and shipboard line-transect surveys were conducted along ten 74km transects placed perpendicular to the shelf break. In total 42,676km of aerial trackline (218 sightings) and 5,209km of vessel trackline (100 sightings) were observed. Seven species of cetaceans were observed, but the fauna was dominated strongly by common bottlenose and Atlantic spotted dolphins. Both species were present year-round in the study area. Using photo-identification techniques, five bottlenose dolphins and one spotted dolphin were resighted during the three-year period. In general, the abundance of cetaceans in Onslow Bay was low and too few sightings were made to estimate monthly abundances for species other than bottlenose and spotted dolphins. Maximum monthly abundances of bottlenose and spotted dolphins were 4,100 (95% CI: 1,300–9,400) in May 2010 and 6,000 (95% CI: 2,500–17,400) in March 2009, respectively. Bottlenose dolphins were found throughout the study area, although they were encountered most frequently just off the shelf break. In contrast, spotted dolphins exhibited a strong preference for waters over the continental shelf and were not encountered beyond the shelf break.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZRead, Andrew, J.Barco, S.Bell, J.Borchers, David LouisBurt, M LouiseCummings, E.W.Dunn, J.Fougeres, J.Hazen, L.Williams-Hodge, L.E.Laura, A-M.McAlarney, R.J.Nilsson, P.Pabst, D.A.Paxton, Charles G. M.Schneider, S.Z.Urian, KimWaples, D.M.McLellan, W.A.In this paper the occurrence, distribution and abundance of cetaceans in offshore waters of Onslow Bay, North Carolina, USA is described. Between June 2007 and June 2010 monthly aerial and shipboard line-transect surveys were conducted along ten 74km transects placed perpendicular to the shelf break. In total 42,676km of aerial trackline (218 sightings) and 5,209km of vessel trackline (100 sightings) were observed. Seven species of cetaceans were observed, but the fauna was dominated strongly by common bottlenose and Atlantic spotted dolphins. Both species were present year-round in the study area. Using photo-identification techniques, five bottlenose dolphins and one spotted dolphin were resighted during the three-year period. In general, the abundance of cetaceans in Onslow Bay was low and too few sightings were made to estimate monthly abundances for species other than bottlenose and spotted dolphins. Maximum monthly abundances of bottlenose and spotted dolphins were 4,100 (95% CI: 1,300–9,400) in May 2010 and 6,000 (95% CI: 2,500–17,400) in March 2009, respectively. Bottlenose dolphins were found throughout the study area, although they were encountered most frequently just off the shelf break. In contrast, spotted dolphins exhibited a strong preference for waters over the continental shelf and were not encountered beyond the shelf break.Observational signatures of waves and flows in the solar corona
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7722
Propagating perturbations have been observed in extended coronal loop structures for a number of years, but the interpretation in terms of slow (propagating) magneto-acoustic waves and/or as quasi-periodic upflows remains unresolved. We used forward-modelling to construct observational signatures associated with a simple slow magneto-acoustic wave or periodic flow model. Observational signatures were computed for the 171 Å Fe ix and the 193 Å Fe xii spectral lines. Although there are many differences between the flow and wave models, we did not find any clear, robust observational characteristics that can be used in isolation (i.e. that do not rely on a comparison between the models). For the waves model, a relatively rapid change of the average line widths as a function of (shallow) line-of-sight angles was found, whereas the ratio of the line width amplitudes to the Doppler velocity amplitudes is relatively high for the flow model. The most robust observational signature found is that the ratio of the mean to the amplitudes of the Doppler velocity is always higher than one for the flow model. This ratio is substantially higher for flows than for waves, and for the flows model used in the study is exactly the same in the 171 Å Fe ix and the 193 Å Fe xii spectral lines. However, these potential observational signatures need to be treated cautiously because they are likely to be model-dependent.
DM acknowledges support of a Royal Society University Research Fellowship and a KU Leuven Research Council senior research fellowship (SF/12/008). The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement SOLSPANET (project No. 269299, www.solspanet.eu/solspanet ). TVD has been sponsored by an Odysseus grant of the FWO Vlaanderen. The research was performed in the context of the IAP P7/08 CHARM (Belspo) and the GOA-2015-014 (KU Leuven). TVD acknowledges the funding from the FP7 ERG grant with number 276808.
2015-02-01T00:00:00ZDe Moortel, I.Antolin, PatrickVan Doorsselaere, T.Propagating perturbations have been observed in extended coronal loop structures for a number of years, but the interpretation in terms of slow (propagating) magneto-acoustic waves and/or as quasi-periodic upflows remains unresolved. We used forward-modelling to construct observational signatures associated with a simple slow magneto-acoustic wave or periodic flow model. Observational signatures were computed for the 171 Å Fe ix and the 193 Å Fe xii spectral lines. Although there are many differences between the flow and wave models, we did not find any clear, robust observational characteristics that can be used in isolation (i.e. that do not rely on a comparison between the models). For the waves model, a relatively rapid change of the average line widths as a function of (shallow) line-of-sight angles was found, whereas the ratio of the line width amplitudes to the Doppler velocity amplitudes is relatively high for the flow model. The most robust observational signature found is that the ratio of the mean to the amplitudes of the Doppler velocity is always higher than one for the flow model. This ratio is substantially higher for flows than for waves, and for the flows model used in the study is exactly the same in the 171 Å Fe ix and the 193 Å Fe xii spectral lines. However, these potential observational signatures need to be treated cautiously because they are likely to be model-dependent.A description of LATTE outputs
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7720
2015-10-30T00:00:00ZMarques, Tiago A.Thomas, LenAn exact collisionless equilibrium for the Force-Free Harris Sheet with low plasma beta
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7691
We present a first discussion and analysis of the physical properties of a new exact collisionless equilibrium for a one-dimensional nonlinear force-free magnetic field, namely, the force-free Harris sheet. The solution allows any value of the plasma beta, and crucially below unity, which previous nonlinear force-free collisionless equilibria could not. The distribution function involves infinite series of Hermite polynomials in the canonical momenta, of which the important mathematical properties of convergence and non-negativity have recently been proven. Plots of the distribution function are presented for the plasma beta modestly below unity, and we compare the shape of the distribution function in two of the velocity directions to a Maxwellian distribution.
Funding: STFC Consolidated Grant [ST/K000950/1] (OA, TN & FW) and a Doctoral Training Grant [ST/K502327/1] (OA). EPSRC Doctoral Training Grant [EP/K503162/1] (ST).
2015-10-01T00:00:00ZAllanson, Oliver DouglasNeukirch, ThomasWilson, FionaTroscheit, SaschaWe present a first discussion and analysis of the physical properties of a new exact collisionless equilibrium for a one-dimensional nonlinear force-free magnetic field, namely, the force-free Harris sheet. The solution allows any value of the plasma beta, and crucially below unity, which previous nonlinear force-free collisionless equilibria could not. The distribution function involves infinite series of Hermite polynomials in the canonical momenta, of which the important mathematical properties of convergence and non-negativity have recently been proven. Plots of the distribution function are presented for the plasma beta modestly below unity, and we compare the shape of the distribution function in two of the velocity directions to a Maxwellian distribution.A spatially explicit capture-recapture estimator for single-catch traps
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7680
1. Single-catch traps are frequently used in live-trapping studies of small mammals. Thus far a likelihood for single-catch traps has proven elusive and usually the likelihood for multi-catch traps is used for spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analyses of such data. Previous work found the multi-catch likelihood to provide a robust estimator of average density. 2. We build on a recently developed continuous-time model for SECR to derive a likelihood for single-catch traps. We use this to develop an estimator based on observed capture times and compare its performance by simulation to that of the multi-catch estimator for various scenarios with non-constant density surfaces. 3. While the multi-catch estimator is found to be a surprisingly robust estimator of average density, its performance deteriorates with high trap saturation and increasing density gradients. Moreover, it is found to be a poor estimator of the height (but not range) of the detection function. By contrast, the single catch estimators of density, distribution and detection function parameters are found to be unbiased or nearly unbiased in all scenarios considered. This gain comes at the cost of higher variance, so that despite the lower bias of the single-catch estimator of the density surface over space, its root mean squared error is similar to that of the multi-catch estimator. 4. If there is no interest in interpreting the detection function parameters themselves, and if density is expected to be fairly constantover the survey region, then the multi-catch estimator performs well with single-catch traps. However if accurate estimation of the detection function is of interest, or if density is expected to vary substantially in space, then there is merit in using the single-catch estimator when trap saturation is above about 60%. The estimator’s performance is improved if care is taken to place traps so as to span the range of variables that affect animal distribution. As a single-catch likelihood with unknown capture times remains intractable for now, researchers using single-catch traps should aim to incorporate timing devices with their traps.
This work was part-funded by EPSRC grant EP/I000917/1.
2015-11-01T00:00:00ZDistiller, GregBorchers, David Louis1. Single-catch traps are frequently used in live-trapping studies of small mammals. Thus far a likelihood for single-catch traps has proven elusive and usually the likelihood for multi-catch traps is used for spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analyses of such data. Previous work found the multi-catch likelihood to provide a robust estimator of average density. 2. We build on a recently developed continuous-time model for SECR to derive a likelihood for single-catch traps. We use this to develop an estimator based on observed capture times and compare its performance by simulation to that of the multi-catch estimator for various scenarios with non-constant density surfaces. 3. While the multi-catch estimator is found to be a surprisingly robust estimator of average density, its performance deteriorates with high trap saturation and increasing density gradients. Moreover, it is found to be a poor estimator of the height (but not range) of the detection function. By contrast, the single catch estimators of density, distribution and detection function parameters are found to be unbiased or nearly unbiased in all scenarios considered. This gain comes at the cost of higher variance, so that despite the lower bias of the single-catch estimator of the density surface over space, its root mean squared error is similar to that of the multi-catch estimator. 4. If there is no interest in interpreting the detection function parameters themselves, and if density is expected to be fairly constantover the survey region, then the multi-catch estimator performs well with single-catch traps. However if accurate estimation of the detection function is of interest, or if density is expected to vary substantially in space, then there is merit in using the single-catch estimator when trap saturation is above about 60%. The estimator’s performance is improved if care is taken to place traps so as to span the range of variables that affect animal distribution. As a single-catch likelihood with unknown capture times remains intractable for now, researchers using single-catch traps should aim to incorporate timing devices with their traps.Homomorphic image orders on combinatorial structures
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7679
Combinatorial structures have been considered under various orders, including substructure order and homomorphism order. In this paper, we investigate the homomorphic image order, corresponding to the existence of a surjective homomorphism between two structures. We distinguish between strong and induced forms of the order and explore how they behave in the context of different common combinatorial structures. We focus on three aspects: antichains and partial well-order, the joint preimage property and the dual amalgamation property. The two latter properties are natural analogues of the well-known joint embedding property and amalgamation property, and are investigated here for the first time.
2015-07-01T00:00:00ZHuczynska, SophieRuskuc, NikCombinatorial structures have been considered under various orders, including substructure order and homomorphism order. In this paper, we investigate the homomorphic image order, corresponding to the existence of a surjective homomorphism between two structures. We distinguish between strong and induced forms of the order and explore how they behave in the context of different common combinatorial structures. We focus on three aspects: antichains and partial well-order, the joint preimage property and the dual amalgamation property. The two latter properties are natural analogues of the well-known joint embedding property and amalgamation property, and are investigated here for the first time.The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7642
In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as 'green' or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.
2015-10-01T00:00:00ZNew, Leslie FrancesHall, Ailsa JaneHarcourt, R.Kaufman, G.Parsons, E.C.M.Pearson, H.C.Cosentino, A.M.Schick, Robert SchillingIn recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as 'green' or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.Genetic censusing identifies an unexpectedly sizeable population of an endangered large mammal in a fragmented forest landscape
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7614
Background: As habitat degradation and fragmentation continue to impact wildlife populations around the world, it is critical to understand the behavioral flexibility of species in these environments. In Uganda, the mostly unprotected forest fragment landscape between the Budongo and Bugoma Forests is a potential corridor for chimpanzees, yet little is known about the status of chimpanzee populations in these fragments. Results: From 2011 through 2013, we noninvasively collected 865 chimpanzee fecal samples across 633 km2 and successfully genotyped 662 (77%) at up to 14 microsatellite loci. These genotypes corresponded to 182 chimpanzees, with a mean of 3.5 captures per individual. We obtained population size estimates of 256 (95% confidence interval 246-321) and 319 (288-357) chimpanzees using capture-with-replacement and spatially explicit capture-recapture models, respectively. The spatial clustering of associated genotypes suggests the presence of at least nine communities containing a minimum of 8-33 individuals each. Putative community distributions defined by the locations of associated genotypes correspond well with the distribution of 14 Y-chromosome haplotypes. Conclusions: These census figures are more than three times greater than a previous estimate based on an extrapolation from small-scale nest count surveys that tend to underestimate population size. The distribution of genotype clusters and Y-chromosome haplotypes together indicate the presence of numerous male philopatric chimpanzee communities throughout the corridor habitat. Our findings demonstrate that, despite extensive habitat loss and fragmentation, chimpanzees remain widely distributed and exhibit distinct community home ranges. Our results further imply that elusive and rare species may adapt to degraded habitats more successfully than previously believed. Their long-term persistence is unlikely, however, if protection is not afforded to them and habitat loss continues unabated.
This study was funded by the American Society of Primatologists, the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), the Max Planck Society, the University of Southern California Jane Goodall Research Center and Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, the Nacey Maggioncalda Foundation, and Primate Conservation, Inc.
2015-08-25T00:00:00ZMcCarthy, M.S.Lester, J.D.Howe, Eric JohnArandjelovic, M.Stanford, C.B.Vigilant, L.Background: As habitat degradation and fragmentation continue to impact wildlife populations around the world, it is critical to understand the behavioral flexibility of species in these environments. In Uganda, the mostly unprotected forest fragment landscape between the Budongo and Bugoma Forests is a potential corridor for chimpanzees, yet little is known about the status of chimpanzee populations in these fragments. Results: From 2011 through 2013, we noninvasively collected 865 chimpanzee fecal samples across 633 km2 and successfully genotyped 662 (77%) at up to 14 microsatellite loci. These genotypes corresponded to 182 chimpanzees, with a mean of 3.5 captures per individual. We obtained population size estimates of 256 (95% confidence interval 246-321) and 319 (288-357) chimpanzees using capture-with-replacement and spatially explicit capture-recapture models, respectively. The spatial clustering of associated genotypes suggests the presence of at least nine communities containing a minimum of 8-33 individuals each. Putative community distributions defined by the locations of associated genotypes correspond well with the distribution of 14 Y-chromosome haplotypes. Conclusions: These census figures are more than three times greater than a previous estimate based on an extrapolation from small-scale nest count surveys that tend to underestimate population size. The distribution of genotype clusters and Y-chromosome haplotypes together indicate the presence of numerous male philopatric chimpanzee communities throughout the corridor habitat. Our findings demonstrate that, despite extensive habitat loss and fragmentation, chimpanzees remain widely distributed and exhibit distinct community home ranges. Our results further imply that elusive and rare species may adapt to degraded habitats more successfully than previously believed. Their long-term persistence is unlikely, however, if protection is not afforded to them and habitat loss continues unabated.Particle energisation in a collapsing magnetic trap model : the relativistic regime
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7603
Context. In solar flares, a large number of charged particles is accelerated to high energies. By which physical processes this is achieved is one of the main open problems in solar physics. It has been suggested that during a flare, regions of the rapidly relaxing magnetic field can form a collapsing magnetic trap (CMT) and that this trap may contribute to particle energisation. Aims. In this Research Note we focus on a particular analytical CMT model based on kinematic magnetohydrodynamics. Previous investigations of particle acceleration for this CMT model focused on the non-relativistic energy regime. It is the specific aim of this Research Note to extend the previous work to relativistic particle energies. Methods. Particle orbits were calculated numerically using the relativistic guiding centre equations. We also calculated particle orbits using the non-relativistic guiding centre equations for comparison. Results. For mildly relativistic energies the relativistic and non-relativistic particle orbits mainly agree well, but clear deviations are seen for higher energies. In particular, the final particle energies obtained from the relativistic calculations are systematically lower than the energies reached from the corresponding non-relativistic calculations, and the mirror points of the relativistic orbits are systematically higher than for the corresponding non-relativistic orbits. Conclusions. While the overall behaviour of particle orbits in CMTs does not differ qualitatively when using the relativistic guiding centre equations, there are a few systematic quantitative differences between relativistic and non-relativistic particle dynamics.
The authors acknowledge financial support by the UK’s Science and Technology Facilities Council through a Doctoral Training Grant (SEO) and Consolidated Grant ST/K000950/1 (SEO and TN).
2014-07-01T00:00:00ZEradat Oskoui, S.Neukirch, T.Context. In solar flares, a large number of charged particles is accelerated to high energies. By which physical processes this is achieved is one of the main open problems in solar physics. It has been suggested that during a flare, regions of the rapidly relaxing magnetic field can form a collapsing magnetic trap (CMT) and that this trap may contribute to particle energisation. Aims. In this Research Note we focus on a particular analytical CMT model based on kinematic magnetohydrodynamics. Previous investigations of particle acceleration for this CMT model focused on the non-relativistic energy regime. It is the specific aim of this Research Note to extend the previous work to relativistic particle energies. Methods. Particle orbits were calculated numerically using the relativistic guiding centre equations. We also calculated particle orbits using the non-relativistic guiding centre equations for comparison. Results. For mildly relativistic energies the relativistic and non-relativistic particle orbits mainly agree well, but clear deviations are seen for higher energies. In particular, the final particle energies obtained from the relativistic calculations are systematically lower than the energies reached from the corresponding non-relativistic calculations, and the mirror points of the relativistic orbits are systematically higher than for the corresponding non-relativistic orbits. Conclusions. While the overall behaviour of particle orbits in CMTs does not differ qualitatively when using the relativistic guiding centre equations, there are a few systematic quantitative differences between relativistic and non-relativistic particle dynamics.Pairwise interaction point processes for modelling bivariate spatial point patterns in the presence of interaction uncertainty
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7583
Current ecological research seeks to understand the mechanisms that sustain biodiversity and allow a large number of species to coexist. Coexistence concerns inter-individual interactions. Consequently, there is an interest in identifying and quantifying interactions within and between species as reflected in the spatial pattern formed by the individuals. This study analyses the spatial pattern formed by the locations of plants in a community with high biodiversity from Western Australia. We fit a pairwise interaction Gibbs marked point process to the data using a Bayesian approach and quantify the inhibitory interactions within and between the two species. We quantitatively discriminate between competing models corresponding to different inter-specific and intraspecific interactions via posterior model probabilities. The analysis provides evidence that the intraspecific interactions for the two species of the genus Banksia are generally similar to those between the two species providing some evidence for mechanisms that sustain biodiversity.
2015-09-01T00:00:00ZNightingale, Glenna FaithIllian, Janine BaerbelKing, RuthCurrent ecological research seeks to understand the mechanisms that sustain biodiversity and allow a large number of species to coexist. Coexistence concerns inter-individual interactions. Consequently, there is an interest in identifying and quantifying interactions within and between species as reflected in the spatial pattern formed by the individuals. This study analyses the spatial pattern formed by the locations of plants in a community with high biodiversity from Western Australia. We fit a pairwise interaction Gibbs marked point process to the data using a Bayesian approach and quantify the inhibitory interactions within and between the two species. We quantitatively discriminate between competing models corresponding to different inter-specific and intraspecific interactions via posterior model probabilities. The analysis provides evidence that the intraspecific interactions for the two species of the genus Banksia are generally similar to those between the two species providing some evidence for mechanisms that sustain biodiversity.Procedure description : using AUTEC’s hydrophones surrounding a DTAGed whale to obtain localizations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7523
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZMarques, Tiago A.Shaeffer, JessicaMoretti, DavidThomas, LenOn the theory of translationally invariant magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure and magnetic shear
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7484
We present an improved formalism for translationally invariant magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure and currents with a field aligned component. The derivation of a Grad-Shafranov type equation is given along with a constraint which links the shear field to the parallel pressure. The difficulties of the formalism are discussed and various methods of circumventing these difficulties are given. A simple example is then used to highlight the methods and difficulties involved.
Funding: STFC Doctoral Training Grant ST/K502327/1 (Jonathan Hodgson) and STFC Consolidated Grant ST/K000950/1 (Thomas Neukirch)
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZHodgson, Jonathan David BrockieNeukirch, ThomasWe present an improved formalism for translationally invariant magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with anisotropic pressure and currents with a field aligned component. The derivation of a Grad-Shafranov type equation is given along with a constraint which links the shear field to the parallel pressure. The difficulties of the formalism are discussed and various methods of circumventing these difficulties are given. A simple example is then used to highlight the methods and difficulties involved.Model-based distance sampling
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7410
Conventional distance sampling adopts a mixed approach, using model-based methods for the detection process, and design-based methods to estimate animal abundance in the study region, given estimated probabilities of detection. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in fully model-based methods. Model-based methods are less robust for estimating animal abundance than conventional methods, but offer several advantages: they allow the analyst to explore how animal density varies by habitat or topography; abundance can be estimated for any sub-region of interest; they provide tools for analysing data from designed distance sampling experiments, to assess treatment effects. We develop a common framework for model-based distance sampling, and show how the various model-based methods that have been proposed fit within this framework.
CSO was part-funded by EPSRC/NERC Grant EP/1000917/1.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrenceOedekoven, Cornelia SabrinaBorchers, David LouisConventional distance sampling adopts a mixed approach, using model-based methods for the detection process, and design-based methods to estimate animal abundance in the study region, given estimated probabilities of detection. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in fully model-based methods. Model-based methods are less robust for estimating animal abundance than conventional methods, but offer several advantages: they allow the analyst to explore how animal density varies by habitat or topography; abundance can be estimated for any sub-region of interest; they provide tools for analysing data from designed distance sampling experiments, to assess treatment effects. We develop a common framework for model-based distance sampling, and show how the various model-based methods that have been proposed fit within this framework.Coronal heating in multiple magnetic threads
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7259
Context. Heating the solar corona to several million degrees requires the conversion of magnetic energy into thermal energy. In this paper, we investigate whether an unstable magnetic thread within a coronal loop can destabilise a neighbouring magnetic thread. Aims. By running a series of simulations, we aim to understand under what conditions the destabilisation of a single magnetic thread can also trigger a release of energy in a nearby thread. Methods. The 3D magnetohydrodynamics code, Lare3d, is used to simulate the temporal evolution of coronal magnetic fields during a kink instability and the subsequent relaxation process. We assume that a coronal magnetic loop consists of non-potential magnetic threads that are initially in an equilibrium state. Results. The non-linear kink instability in one magnetic thread forms a helical current sheet and initiates magnetic reconnection. The current sheet fragments, and magnetic energy is released throughout that thread. We find that, under certain conditions, this event can destabilise a nearby thread, which is a necessary requirement for starting an avalanche of energy release in magnetic threads. Conclusions. It is possible to initiate an energy release in a nearby, non-potential magnetic thread, because the energy released from one unstable magnetic thread can trigger energy release in nearby threads, provided that the nearby structures are close to marginal stability.
We acknowledge the financial support of STFC through the Consolidated grant to the University of St Andrews.
2015-08-01T00:00:00ZTam, Kuan VaiHood, Alan WilliamBrowning, PhilippaCargill, PeterContext. Heating the solar corona to several million degrees requires the conversion of magnetic energy into thermal energy. In this paper, we investigate whether an unstable magnetic thread within a coronal loop can destabilise a neighbouring magnetic thread. Aims. By running a series of simulations, we aim to understand under what conditions the destabilisation of a single magnetic thread can also trigger a release of energy in a nearby thread. Methods. The 3D magnetohydrodynamics code, Lare3d, is used to simulate the temporal evolution of coronal magnetic fields during a kink instability and the subsequent relaxation process. We assume that a coronal magnetic loop consists of non-potential magnetic threads that are initially in an equilibrium state. Results. The non-linear kink instability in one magnetic thread forms a helical current sheet and initiates magnetic reconnection. The current sheet fragments, and magnetic energy is released throughout that thread. We find that, under certain conditions, this event can destabilise a nearby thread, which is a necessary requirement for starting an avalanche of energy release in magnetic threads. Conclusions. It is possible to initiate an energy release in a nearby, non-potential magnetic thread, because the energy released from one unstable magnetic thread can trigger energy release in nearby threads, provided that the nearby structures are close to marginal stability.Large scale surveys for cetaceans : line transect assumptions, reliability of abundance estimates and improving survey efficiency – A response to MacLeod
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7159
2014-02-01T00:00:00ZHammond, Philip StevenGillespie, Douglas MichaelLovell, PhilipSamarra, Filipa Isabel PereiraSwift, Rene JamesMacleod, KellyTasker, Mark LBerggren, PerBorchers, David LouisBurt, M LouisePaxton, Charles G. M.Canadas, AnaDesportes, GenevieveDonovan, Greg PGilles, AnitaLehnert, KristinaSiebert, UrsulaGordon, Jonathan Charles DavidLeaper, RussellLeopold, MardikScheidat, MeikeOien, NilsRidoux, VincentRogan, EmerSkov, HenrikTeilmann, JonasVan Canneyt, OlivierVazquez, Jose AntonioDetectability in audio-visual surveys of tropical rainforest birds : the influence of species, weather and habitat characteristics
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7147
Indices of relative abundance do not control for variation in detectability, which can bias density estimates such that ecological processes are difficult to infer. Distance sampling methods can be used to correct for detectability, but in rainforest, where dense vegetation and diverse assemblages complicate sampling, information is lacking about factors affecting their application. Rare species present an additional challenge, as data may be too sparse to fit detection functions. We present analyses of distance sampling data collected for a diverse tropical rainforest bird assemblage across broad elevational and latitudinal gradients in North Queensland, Australia. Using audio and visual detections, we assessed the influence of various factors on Effective Strip Width (ESW), an intuitively useful parameter, since it can be used to calculate an estimate of density from count data. Body size and species exerted the most important influence on ESW, with larger species detectable over greater distances than smaller species. Secondarily, wet weather and high shrub density decreased ESW for most species. ESW for several species also differed between summer and winter, possibly due to seasonal differences in calling behavior. Distance sampling proved logistically intensive in these environments, but large differences in ESW between species confirmed the need to correct for detection probability to obtain accurate density estimates. Our results suggest an evidence-based approach to controlling for factors influencing detectability, and avenues for further work including modeling detectability as a function of species characteristics such as body size and call characteristics. Such models may be useful in developing a calibration for non-distance sampling data and for estimating detectability of rare species.
This research was funded by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program, the Stuart Leslie Bird Research Award from Birds Australia (http://www.birdsaustralia.com.au/), the Earthwatch Institute (http://www.earthwatch.org/australia/), the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF: http://www.rrrc.org.au/mtsrf). In addition, TAM was partially sponsored by national funds through the Fundação Nacional para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal – FCT under the project (PEst-OE/MAT/UI0006/2011). Date of Acceptance: 27/04/2015
2015-06-25T00:00:00ZAnderson, Alexander S.Marques, Tiago A.Shoo, Luke P.Williams, Stephen E.Indices of relative abundance do not control for variation in detectability, which can bias density estimates such that ecological processes are difficult to infer. Distance sampling methods can be used to correct for detectability, but in rainforest, where dense vegetation and diverse assemblages complicate sampling, information is lacking about factors affecting their application. Rare species present an additional challenge, as data may be too sparse to fit detection functions. We present analyses of distance sampling data collected for a diverse tropical rainforest bird assemblage across broad elevational and latitudinal gradients in North Queensland, Australia. Using audio and visual detections, we assessed the influence of various factors on Effective Strip Width (ESW), an intuitively useful parameter, since it can be used to calculate an estimate of density from count data. Body size and species exerted the most important influence on ESW, with larger species detectable over greater distances than smaller species. Secondarily, wet weather and high shrub density decreased ESW for most species. ESW for several species also differed between summer and winter, possibly due to seasonal differences in calling behavior. Distance sampling proved logistically intensive in these environments, but large differences in ESW between species confirmed the need to correct for detection probability to obtain accurate density estimates. Our results suggest an evidence-based approach to controlling for factors influencing detectability, and avenues for further work including modeling detectability as a function of species characteristics such as body size and call characteristics. Such models may be useful in developing a calibration for non-distance sampling data and for estimating detectability of rare species.Double-observer line transect surveys with Markov-modulated Poisson process models for overdispersed animal availability
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7085
We develop maximum likelihood methods for line transect surveys in which animals go undetected at distance zero, either because they are stochastically unavailable while within view or because they are missed when they are available. These incorporate a Markov-modulated Poisson process model for animal availability, allowing more clustered availability events than is possible with Poisson availability models. They include a mark-recapture component arising from the independent-observer survey, leading to more accurate estimation of detection probability given availability. We develop models for situations in which (a) multiple detections of the same individual are possible and (b) some or all of the availability process parameters are estimated from the line transect survey itself, rather than from independent data. We investigate estimator performance by simulation, and compare the multiple-detection estimators with estimators that use only initial detections of individuals, and with a single-observer estimator. Simultaneous estimation of detection function parameters and availability model parameters is shown to be feasible from the line transect survey alone with multiple detections and double-observer data but not with single-observer data. Recording multiple detections of individuals improves estimator precision substantially when estimating the availability model parameters from survey data, and we recommend that these data be gathered. We apply the methods to estimate detection probability from a double-observer survey of North Atlantic minke whales, and find that double-observer data greatly improve estimator precision here too.
2015-12-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, David LouisLangrock, RolandWe develop maximum likelihood methods for line transect surveys in which animals go undetected at distance zero, either because they are stochastically unavailable while within view or because they are missed when they are available. These incorporate a Markov-modulated Poisson process model for animal availability, allowing more clustered availability events than is possible with Poisson availability models. They include a mark-recapture component arising from the independent-observer survey, leading to more accurate estimation of detection probability given availability. We develop models for situations in which (a) multiple detections of the same individual are possible and (b) some or all of the availability process parameters are estimated from the line transect survey itself, rather than from independent data. We investigate estimator performance by simulation, and compare the multiple-detection estimators with estimators that use only initial detections of individuals, and with a single-observer estimator. Simultaneous estimation of detection function parameters and availability model parameters is shown to be feasible from the line transect survey alone with multiple detections and double-observer data but not with single-observer data. Recording multiple detections of individuals improves estimator precision substantially when estimating the availability model parameters from survey data, and we recommend that these data be gathered. We apply the methods to estimate detection probability from a double-observer survey of North Atlantic minke whales, and find that double-observer data greatly improve estimator precision here too.Chronic exposure to imidacloprid increases neuronal vulnerability to mitochondrial dysfunction in the bumblebee (Bombus terrestris)
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6986
The global decline in the abundance and diversity of insect pollinators could result from habitat loss, disease, and pesticide exposure. The contribution of the neonicotinoid insecticides (e.g., clothianidin and imidacloprid) to this decline is controversial, and key to understanding their risk is whether the astonishingly low levels found in the nectar and pollen of plants is sufficient to deliver neuroactive levels to their site of action: the bee brain. Here we show that bumblebees (Bombusterrestris audax) fed field levels [10 nM, 2.1 ppb (w/w)] of neonicotinoid accumulate between 4 and 10 nM in their brains within 3 days. Acute (minutes) exposure of cultured neurons to 10 nM clothianidin, but not imidacloprid, causes a nicotinic acetylcholine receptor-dependent rapid mitochondrial depolarization. However, a chronic (2 days) exposure to 1 nM imidacloprid leads to a receptor-dependent increased sensitivity to a normally innocuous level of acetylcholine, which now also causes rapid mitochondrial depolarization in neurons. Finally, colonies exposed to this level of imidacloprid show deficits in colony growth and nest condition compared with untreated colonies. These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for the poor navigation and foraging observed in neonicotinoid treated bumblebee colonies.
This work was funded jointly by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Scottish Government, and The Wellcome Trust, under the Insect Pollinators Initiative (United Kingdom) Grant BB/ 1000313/1 (to C.N.C.).
2015-05-01T00:00:00ZMoffat, C.Goncalves Pacheco, J.Sharpe, S.Samson, A.J.Bollan, K.A.Huang, J.Buckland, Stephen TerrenceConnolly, C.N.The global decline in the abundance and diversity of insect pollinators could result from habitat loss, disease, and pesticide exposure. The contribution of the neonicotinoid insecticides (e.g., clothianidin and imidacloprid) to this decline is controversial, and key to understanding their risk is whether the astonishingly low levels found in the nectar and pollen of plants is sufficient to deliver neuroactive levels to their site of action: the bee brain. Here we show that bumblebees (Bombusterrestris audax) fed field levels [10 nM, 2.1 ppb (w/w)] of neonicotinoid accumulate between 4 and 10 nM in their brains within 3 days. Acute (minutes) exposure of cultured neurons to 10 nM clothianidin, but not imidacloprid, causes a nicotinic acetylcholine receptor-dependent rapid mitochondrial depolarization. However, a chronic (2 days) exposure to 1 nM imidacloprid leads to a receptor-dependent increased sensitivity to a normally innocuous level of acetylcholine, which now also causes rapid mitochondrial depolarization in neurons. Finally, colonies exposed to this level of imidacloprid show deficits in colony growth and nest condition compared with untreated colonies. These findings provide a mechanistic explanation for the poor navigation and foraging observed in neonicotinoid treated bumblebee colonies.Spatial variation in maximum dive depth in gray seals in relation to foraging.
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6886
Habitat preference maps are a way of representing animals’ space use in two dimensions. For marine animals, the third dimension is an important aspect of spatial ecology. We used dive data from seven gray seals Halichoerus grypus (a primarily benthic forager) collected with GPS phone tags (Sea Mammal Research Unit) to investigate the distribution of the maximum depth visited in each dive. We modeled maximum dive depth as a function of spatiotemporal covariates using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) with individual as a random effect. Bathymetry, horizontal displacement, latitude and longitude, Julian day, sediment type, and light conditions accounted for 37% of the variability in the data. Persistent patterns of autocorrelation in the raw data suggest that individual intrinsic rhythm might be an important factor, not captured by external covariates. The strength of using this statistical method to generate spatial predictions of the distribution of maximum dive depth is its applicability to other plunge and pursuit divers. Despite being predictions of a point estimate, these maps provide some insight into the third dimension of habitat use in marine animals. The capacity to predict this aspect of vertical habitat use may help avoid conflict between animal habitat and coastal or offshore developments
Theoni Photopoulou was funded by SMRU Ltd in the form of a Ph.D. studentship, 2008–2012.
2014-07-01T00:00:00ZPhotopoulou, TheoniFedak, MikeThomas, LenMatthiopoulos, JasonHabitat preference maps are a way of representing animals’ space use in two dimensions. For marine animals, the third dimension is an important aspect of spatial ecology. We used dive data from seven gray seals Halichoerus grypus (a primarily benthic forager) collected with GPS phone tags (Sea Mammal Research Unit) to investigate the distribution of the maximum depth visited in each dive. We modeled maximum dive depth as a function of spatiotemporal covariates using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) with individual as a random effect. Bathymetry, horizontal displacement, latitude and longitude, Julian day, sediment type, and light conditions accounted for 37% of the variability in the data. Persistent patterns of autocorrelation in the raw data suggest that individual intrinsic rhythm might be an important factor, not captured by external covariates. The strength of using this statistical method to generate spatial predictions of the distribution of maximum dive depth is its applicability to other plunge and pursuit divers. Despite being predictions of a point estimate, these maps provide some insight into the third dimension of habitat use in marine animals. The capacity to predict this aspect of vertical habitat use may help avoid conflict between animal habitat and coastal or offshore developmentsEstimating population sizes of lions Panthera leo and spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta in Uganda’s savannah parks, using lure count methods
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6885
Despite > 60 years of conservation in Uganda’s national parks the populations of lions and spotted hyaenas in these areas have never been estimated using a census method. Estimates for some sites have been extrapolated to other protected areas and educated guesses have been made but there has been nothing more definitive. We used a lure count analysis method of call-up counts to estimate populations of the lion Panthera leo and spotted hyaena Crocuta crocuta in the parks where reasonable numbers of these species exist: Queen Elizabeth Protected Area, Murchison Falls Conservation Area and Kidepo Valley National Park. We estimated a total of 408 lions and 324 hyaenas for these three conservation areas. It is unlikely that other conservation areas in Uganda host >10 lions or > 40 hyaenas. The Queen Elizabeth Protected Area had the largest populations of lions and hyaenas: 140 and 211, respectively. It is estimated that lion numbers have declined by 30% in this protected area since the late 1990s and there are increasing concerns for the long-term viability of both species in Uganda.
Funding: United States Agency for International Development
2014-07-01T00:00:00ZOmoya, Edward OkotMudumba, TutiloBuckland, Stephen TMulondo, PaulPlumptre, Andrew JDespite > 60 years of conservation in Uganda’s national parks the populations of lions and spotted hyaenas in these areas have never been estimated using a census method. Estimates for some sites have been extrapolated to other protected areas and educated guesses have been made but there has been nothing more definitive. We used a lure count analysis method of call-up counts to estimate populations of the lion Panthera leo and spotted hyaena Crocuta crocuta in the parks where reasonable numbers of these species exist: Queen Elizabeth Protected Area, Murchison Falls Conservation Area and Kidepo Valley National Park. We estimated a total of 408 lions and 324 hyaenas for these three conservation areas. It is unlikely that other conservation areas in Uganda host >10 lions or > 40 hyaenas. The Queen Elizabeth Protected Area had the largest populations of lions and hyaenas: 140 and 211, respectively. It is estimated that lion numbers have declined by 30% in this protected area since the late 1990s and there are increasing concerns for the long-term viability of both species in Uganda.Inflations of geometric grid classes of permutations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6862
Geometric grid classes and the substitution decomposition have both been shown to be fundamental in the understanding of the structure of permutation classes. In particular, these are the two main tools in the recent classification of permutation classes of growth rate less than κ ≈ 2.20557 (a specific algebraic integer at which infinite antichains first appear). Using language- and order-theoretic methods, we prove that the substitution closures of geometric grid classes are well partially ordered, finitely based, and that all their subclasses have algebraic generating functions. We go on to show that the inflation of a geometric grid class by a strongly rational class is well partially ordered, and that all its subclasses have rational generating functions. This latter fact allows us to conclude that every permutation class with growth rate less than κ has a rational generating function. This bound is tight as there are permutation classes with growth rate κ which have nonrational generating functions.
All three authors were partially supported by EPSRC via the grant EP/J006440/1.
2015-02-01T00:00:00ZAlbert, M.D.Ruskuc, NikVatter, V.Geometric grid classes and the substitution decomposition have both been shown to be fundamental in the understanding of the structure of permutation classes. In particular, these are the two main tools in the recent classification of permutation classes of growth rate less than κ ≈ 2.20557 (a specific algebraic integer at which infinite antichains first appear). Using language- and order-theoretic methods, we prove that the substitution closures of geometric grid classes are well partially ordered, finitely based, and that all their subclasses have algebraic generating functions. We go on to show that the inflation of a geometric grid class by a strongly rational class is well partially ordered, and that all its subclasses have rational generating functions. This latter fact allows us to conclude that every permutation class with growth rate less than κ has a rational generating function. This bound is tight as there are permutation classes with growth rate κ which have nonrational generating functions.Subalgebras of FA-presentable algebras
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6852
Automatic presentations, also called FA-presentations, were introduced to extend finite model theory to infinite structures whilst retaining the solubility of fundamental decision problems. This paper studies FA-presentable algebras. First, an example is given to show that the class of finitely generated FA-presentable algebras is not closed under forming finitely generated subalgebras, even within the class of algebras with only unary operations. In contrast, a finitely generated subalgebra of an FA-presentable algebra with a single unary operation is itself FA-presentable. Furthermore, it is proven that the class of unary FA-presentable algebras is closed under forming finitely generated subalgebras and that the membership problem for such subalgebras is decidable.
2014-06-01T00:00:00ZCain, A.J.Ruskuc, NikAutomatic presentations, also called FA-presentations, were introduced to extend finite model theory to infinite structures whilst retaining the solubility of fundamental decision problems. This paper studies FA-presentable algebras. First, an example is given to show that the class of finitely generated FA-presentable algebras is not closed under forming finitely generated subalgebras, even within the class of algebras with only unary operations. In contrast, a finitely generated subalgebra of an FA-presentable algebra with a single unary operation is itself FA-presentable. Furthermore, it is proven that the class of unary FA-presentable algebras is closed under forming finitely generated subalgebras and that the membership problem for such subalgebras is decidable.Excitation and damping of broadband kink waves in the solar corona
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6839
Context. Observations such as those by the Coronal Multi-Channel Polarimeter (CoMP) have revealed that broadband kink oscillations are ubiquitous in the solar corona. Aims. We consider footpoint-driven kink waves propagating in a low β coronal plasma with a cylindrical density structure. We investigate the excitation and damping of propagating kink waves by a broadband driver, including the effects of different spatial profiles for the driver. Methods. We employ a general spatial damping profile in which the initial stage of the damping envelope is approximated by a Gaussian profile and the asymptotic state by an exponential one. We develop a method of accounting for the presence of these different damping regimes and test it using data from numerical simulations. Results. Strongly damped oscillations in low density coronal loops are more accurately described by a Gaussian spatial damping profile than an exponential profile. The consequences for coronal seismology are investigated and applied to observational data for the ubiquitous broadband waves observed by CoMP. Current data cannot distinguish between the exponential and Gaussian profiles because of the levels of noise. We demonstrate the importance of the spatial profile of the driver on the resulting damping profile. Furthermore, we show that a small-scale turbulent driver is inefficient at exciting propagating kink waves
D.J.P. acknowledges financial support from STFC. I.D.M. acknowledges support of a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ 2007−2013) under the grant agreement SOLSPANET (project No. 269299, www.solspanet.eu/solspanet).
2015-06-01T00:00:00ZPascoe, David JamesWright, Andrew NicholasDe Moortel, InekeHood, Alan WilliamContext. Observations such as those by the Coronal Multi-Channel Polarimeter (CoMP) have revealed that broadband kink oscillations are ubiquitous in the solar corona. Aims. We consider footpoint-driven kink waves propagating in a low β coronal plasma with a cylindrical density structure. We investigate the excitation and damping of propagating kink waves by a broadband driver, including the effects of different spatial profiles for the driver. Methods. We employ a general spatial damping profile in which the initial stage of the damping envelope is approximated by a Gaussian profile and the asymptotic state by an exponential one. We develop a method of accounting for the presence of these different damping regimes and test it using data from numerical simulations. Results. Strongly damped oscillations in low density coronal loops are more accurately described by a Gaussian spatial damping profile than an exponential profile. The consequences for coronal seismology are investigated and applied to observational data for the ubiquitous broadband waves observed by CoMP. Current data cannot distinguish between the exponential and Gaussian profiles because of the levels of noise. We demonstrate the importance of the spatial profile of the driver on the resulting damping profile. Furthermore, we show that a small-scale turbulent driver is inefficient at exciting propagating kink wavesDeveloping and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes : a collaborative assessment of priorities
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6756
Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized. We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa. We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes. People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.
This work was supported by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) [grant number WC1014] and the Natural Environment Research Council through National Capability funding to the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
2015-06-01T00:00:00ZPocock, Michael J. O.Newson, Stuart E.Henderson, Ian G.Peyton, JodeySutherland, William J.Noble, David G.Ball, Stuart G.Beckmann, Björn C.Biggs, JeremyBrereton, TomBullock, David J.Buckland, Stephen T.Edwards, MikeEaton, Mark A.Harvey, Martin C.Hill, Mark O.Horlock, MartinHubble, David S.Julian, Angela M.Mackey, Edward C.Mann, Darren J.Marshall, Matthew J.Medlock, Jolyon M.O'Mahony, Elaine M.Pacheco, MarinaPorter, KeithPrentice, SteveProcter, Deborah A.Roy, Helen E.Southway, Sue E.Shortall, Chris R.Stewart, Alan J. A.Wembridge, David E.Wright, Mark A.Roy, David B.Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized. We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa. We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes. People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.Bayesian methods for hierarchical distance sampling models
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6714
The few distance sampling studies that use Bayesian methods typically consider only line transect sampling with a half-normal detection function. We present a Bayesian approach to analyse distance sampling data applicable to line and point transects, exact and interval distance data and any detection function possibly including covariates affecting detection probabilities. We use an integrated likelihood which combines the detection and count models. For the latter, counts are related to covariates in a log-linear mixed effect Poisson model which accommodates correlated counts. We use a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for updating parameters and a reversible jump algorithm to include model selection for both the detection function and count models. The approach is applied to a large-scale experimental design study of northern bobwhite coveys where the interest was to assess the effect of establishing herbaceous buffers around agricultural fields in several states in the US on bird densities. Results were compared with those from an existing maximum likelihood approach that analyses the detection and count models in two stages. Both methods revealed an increase of covey densities on buffered fields. Our approach gave estimates with higher precision even though it does not condition on a known detection function for the count model.
Cornelia S. Oedekoven was supported by a studentship jointly funded by the University of St Andrews and EPSRC (EPSRC grant EP/C522702/1), through the National Centre for Statistical Ecology.
2014-06-01T00:00:00ZOedekoven, Cornelia SabrinaBuckland, Stephen TerrenceMacKenzie, Monique LeaKing, RuthEvans, KristineBurger, WesThe few distance sampling studies that use Bayesian methods typically consider only line transect sampling with a half-normal detection function. We present a Bayesian approach to analyse distance sampling data applicable to line and point transects, exact and interval distance data and any detection function possibly including covariates affecting detection probabilities. We use an integrated likelihood which combines the detection and count models. For the latter, counts are related to covariates in a log-linear mixed effect Poisson model which accommodates correlated counts. We use a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for updating parameters and a reversible jump algorithm to include model selection for both the detection function and count models. The approach is applied to a large-scale experimental design study of northern bobwhite coveys where the interest was to assess the effect of establishing herbaceous buffers around agricultural fields in several states in the US on bird densities. Results were compared with those from an existing maximum likelihood approach that analyses the detection and count models in two stages. Both methods revealed an increase of covey densities on buffered fields. Our approach gave estimates with higher precision even though it does not condition on a known detection function for the count model.Using accelerometers to determine the calling behavior of tagged baleen whales
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6623
Low-frequency acoustic signals generated by baleen whales can propagate over vast distances, making the assignment of calls to specific individuals problematic. Here, we report the novel use of acoustic recording tags equipped with high-resolution accelerometers to detect vibrations from the surface of two tagged fin whales that directly match the timing of recorded acoustic signals. A tag deployed on a buoy in the vicinity of calling fin whales and a recording from a tag that had just fallen off a whale were able to detect calls acoustically but did not record corresponding accelerometer signals that were measured on calling individuals. Across the hundreds of calls measured on two tagged fin whales, the accelerometer response was generally anisotropic across all three axes, appeared to depend on tag placement and increased with the level of received sound. These data demonstrate that high-sample rate accelerometry can provide important insights into the acoustic behavior of baleen whales that communicate at low frequencies. This method helps identify vocalizing whales, which in turn enables the quantification of call rates, a fundamental component of models used to estimate baleen whale abundance and distribution from passive acoustic monitoring.
2014-07-15T00:00:00ZGoldbogen, JeremyDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnStimpert, AlisonCalambokidis, JohnFriedlaender, AriSchorr, GregMoretti, DavidTyack, Peter LloydSouthall, BrandonLow-frequency acoustic signals generated by baleen whales can propagate over vast distances, making the assignment of calls to specific individuals problematic. Here, we report the novel use of acoustic recording tags equipped with high-resolution accelerometers to detect vibrations from the surface of two tagged fin whales that directly match the timing of recorded acoustic signals. A tag deployed on a buoy in the vicinity of calling fin whales and a recording from a tag that had just fallen off a whale were able to detect calls acoustically but did not record corresponding accelerometer signals that were measured on calling individuals. Across the hundreds of calls measured on two tagged fin whales, the accelerometer response was generally anisotropic across all three axes, appeared to depend on tag placement and increased with the level of received sound. These data demonstrate that high-sample rate accelerometry can provide important insights into the acoustic behavior of baleen whales that communicate at low frequencies. This method helps identify vocalizing whales, which in turn enables the quantification of call rates, a fundamental component of models used to estimate baleen whale abundance and distribution from passive acoustic monitoring.The effect of animal movement on line transect estimates of abundance
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6466
Line transect sampling is a distance sampling method for estimating the abundance of wild animal populations. One key assumption of this method is that all animals are detected at their initial location. Animal movement independent of the transect and observer can thus cause substantial bias. We present an analytic expression for this bias when detection within the transect is certain (strip transect sampling) and use simulation to quantify bias when detection falls off with distance from the line (line transect sampling). We also explore the non-linear relationship between bias, detection, and animal movement by varying detectability and movement type. We consider animals that move in randomly orientated straight lines, which provides an upper bound on bias, and animals that are constrained to a home range of random radius. We find that bias is reduced when animal movement is constrained, and bias is considerably smaller in line transect sampling than strip transect sampling provided that mean animal speed is less than observer speed. By contrast, when mean animal speed exceeds observer speed the bias in line transect sampling becomes comparable with, and may exceed, that of strip transect sampling. Bias from independent animal movement is reduced by the observer searching further perpendicular to the transect, searching a shorter distance ahead and by ignoring animals that may overtake the observer from behind. However, when animals move in response to the observer, the standard practice of searching further ahead should continue as the bias from responsive movement is often greater than that from independent movement.
This work was supported by the University of St Andrews (http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/; RG, STB, LT) and by a summer scholarship and PhD grant from The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland (http://www.carnegie-trust.org/) to RG.
2015-03-23T00:00:00ZGlennie, R.Buckland, S.T.Thomas, L.Line transect sampling is a distance sampling method for estimating the abundance of wild animal populations. One key assumption of this method is that all animals are detected at their initial location. Animal movement independent of the transect and observer can thus cause substantial bias. We present an analytic expression for this bias when detection within the transect is certain (strip transect sampling) and use simulation to quantify bias when detection falls off with distance from the line (line transect sampling). We also explore the non-linear relationship between bias, detection, and animal movement by varying detectability and movement type. We consider animals that move in randomly orientated straight lines, which provides an upper bound on bias, and animals that are constrained to a home range of random radius. We find that bias is reduced when animal movement is constrained, and bias is considerably smaller in line transect sampling than strip transect sampling provided that mean animal speed is less than observer speed. By contrast, when mean animal speed exceeds observer speed the bias in line transect sampling becomes comparable with, and may exceed, that of strip transect sampling. Bias from independent animal movement is reduced by the observer searching further perpendicular to the transect, searching a shorter distance ahead and by ignoring animals that may overtake the observer from behind. However, when animals move in response to the observer, the standard practice of searching further ahead should continue as the bias from responsive movement is often greater than that from independent movement.Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6463
We present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.
Funding: EPSRC DTG
2015-03-20T00:00:00ZMiller, David LawrenceThomas, LenWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Bayesian hierarchical modelling of continuous non-negative longitudinal data with a spike at zero : an application to a study of birds visiting gardens in winter
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6164
The development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero-inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean-variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase.
2016-03-01T00:00:00ZSwallow, Benjamin ThomasBuckland, Stephen TerrenceKing, RuthToms, MikeThe development of methods for dealing with continuous data with a spike at zero has lagged behind those for overdispersed or zero-inflated count data. We consider longitudinal ecological data corresponding to an annual average of 26 weekly maximum counts of birds, and are hence effectively continuous, bounded below by zero but also with a discrete mass at zero. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical Tweedie regression model that can directly accommodate the excess number of zeros common to this type of data, whilst accounting for both spatial and temporal correlation. Implementation of the model is conducted in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, using reversible jump MCMC to explore uncertainty across both parameter and model spaces. This regression modelling framework is very flexible and removes the need to make strong assumptions about mean-variance relationships a priori. It can also directly account for the spike at zero, whilst being easily applicable to other types of data and other model formulations. Whilst a correlative study such as this cannot prove causation, our results suggest that an increase in an avian predator may have led to an overall decrease in the number of one of its prey species visiting garden feeding stations in the United Kingdom. This may reflect a change in behaviour of house sparrows to avoid feeding stations frequented by sparrowhawks, or a reduction in house sparrow population size as a result of sparrowhawk increase.Statistical ecology comes of age
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/6128
The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1 –4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.
2014-12-24T00:00:00ZGimenez, OlivierBuckland, Stephen TerrenceMorgan, Byron J. T.Bez, NicolasBertrand, SophieChoquet, RemiDray, StephaneEtienne, Marie-PierreFewster, RachelGosselin, FredericMerigot, BastienMonestiez, PascalMorales, Juan M.Mortier, FredericMunoz, FrancoisOvaskainen, OtsoPavoine, SandrinePradel, RogerSchurr, Frank M.Thomas, LenThuiller, WilfriedTrenkel, Verenade Valpine, PerryRexstad, EricThe desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1 –4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.Statistical evidence for the existence of Alfvénic turbulence in solar coronal loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5987
Recent observations have demonstrated that waves capable of carrying large amounts of energy are ubiquitous throughout the solar corona. However, the question of how this wave energy is dissipated (on which timescales and length scales) and released into the plasma remains largely unanswered. Both analytic and numerical models have previously shown that Alfvénic turbulence may play a key role not only in the generation of the fast solar wind, but in the heating of coronal loops. In an effort to bridge the gap between theory and observations, we expand on a recent study by analyzing 37 clearly isolated coronal loops using data from the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter instrument.We observe Alfvénic perturbations with phase speeds which range from 250 to 750 km s-1 and periods from 140 to 270 s for the chosen loops. While excesses of high-frequency wave power are observed near the apex of some loops (tentatively supporting the onset of Alfvénic turbulence), we show that this excess depends on loop length and the wavelength of the observed oscillations. In deriving a proportional relationship between the loop length/wavelength ratio and the enhanced wave power at the loop apex, and from the analysis of the line widths associated with these loops, our findings are supportive of the existence of Alfvénic turbulence in coronal loops.
The authors acknowledge support from NASA contracts NNX08BA99G, NNX11AN98G, NNM12AB40P, NNG09FA40C (IRIS), and NNM07AA01C (Hinode). The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ 2007-2013) under the grant agreement SOLSPANET (project No. 269299, www.solspanet.eu/solspanet).
2014-12-10T00:00:00ZLiu, J.Mcintosh, S.W.De Moortel, I.Threlfall, J.Bethge, C.Recent observations have demonstrated that waves capable of carrying large amounts of energy are ubiquitous throughout the solar corona. However, the question of how this wave energy is dissipated (on which timescales and length scales) and released into the plasma remains largely unanswered. Both analytic and numerical models have previously shown that Alfvénic turbulence may play a key role not only in the generation of the fast solar wind, but in the heating of coronal loops. In an effort to bridge the gap between theory and observations, we expand on a recent study by analyzing 37 clearly isolated coronal loops using data from the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter instrument.We observe Alfvénic perturbations with phase speeds which range from 250 to 750 km s-1 and periods from 140 to 270 s for the chosen loops. While excesses of high-frequency wave power are observed near the apex of some loops (tentatively supporting the onset of Alfvénic turbulence), we show that this excess depends on loop length and the wavelength of the observed oscillations. In deriving a proportional relationship between the loop length/wavelength ratio and the enhanced wave power at the loop apex, and from the analysis of the line widths associated with these loops, our findings are supportive of the existence of Alfvénic turbulence in coronal loops.Analysing mark-recapture-recovery data in the presence of missing covariate data via multiple imputation
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5932
We consider mark–recapture–recovery data with additional individual time-varying continuous covariate data. For such data it is common to specify the model parameters, and in particular the survival probabilities, as a function of these covariates to incorporate individual heterogeneity. However, an issue arises in relation to missing covariate values, for (at least) the times when an individual is not observed, leading to an analytically intractable likelihood. We propose a two-step multiple imputation approach to obtain estimates of the demographic parameters. Firstly, a model is fitted to only the observed covariate values. Conditional on the fitted covariate model, multiple “complete” datasets are generated (i.e. all missing covariate values are imputed). Secondly, for each complete dataset, a closed form complete data likelihood can be maximised to obtain estimates of the model parameters which are subsequently combined to obtain an overall estimate of the parameters. Associated standard errors and 95 % confidence intervals are obtained using a non-parametric bootstrap. A simulation study is undertaken to assess the performance of the proposed two-step approach. We apply the method to data collected on a well-studied population of Soay sheep and compare the results with a Bayesian data augmentation approach. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.
2015-03-01T00:00:00ZWorthington, HannahKing, RuthBuckland, Stephen TerrenceWe consider mark–recapture–recovery data with additional individual time-varying continuous covariate data. For such data it is common to specify the model parameters, and in particular the survival probabilities, as a function of these covariates to incorporate individual heterogeneity. However, an issue arises in relation to missing covariate values, for (at least) the times when an individual is not observed, leading to an analytically intractable likelihood. We propose a two-step multiple imputation approach to obtain estimates of the demographic parameters. Firstly, a model is fitted to only the observed covariate values. Conditional on the fitted covariate model, multiple “complete” datasets are generated (i.e. all missing covariate values are imputed). Secondly, for each complete dataset, a closed form complete data likelihood can be maximised to obtain estimates of the model parameters which are subsequently combined to obtain an overall estimate of the parameters. Associated standard errors and 95 % confidence intervals are obtained using a non-parametric bootstrap. A simulation study is undertaken to assess the performance of the proposed two-step approach. We apply the method to data collected on a well-studied population of Soay sheep and compare the results with a Bayesian data augmentation approach. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.Backward wave cyclotron-maser emission in the auroral magnetosphere
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5802
In this Letter, we present theory and particle-in-cell simulations describing cyclotron radio emission from Earth's auroral region and similar phenomena in other astrophysical environments. In particular, we find that the radiation, generated by a down-going electron horseshoe distribution is due to a backward wave cyclotron-maser emission process. The backward wave nature of the radiation contributes to upward refraction of the radiation that is also enhanced by a density inhomogeneity. We also show that the radiation is preferentially amplified along the auroral oval rather than transversely. The results are in agreement with recent Cluster observations.
This work was supported by EPSRC Grant No. EP/G04239X/1.
2014-10-07T00:00:00ZSpeirs, D. C.Bingham, R.Cairns, R. A.Vorgul, I.Kellett, B. J.Phelps, A. D. R.Ronald, K.In this Letter, we present theory and particle-in-cell simulations describing cyclotron radio emission from Earth's auroral region and similar phenomena in other astrophysical environments. In particular, we find that the radiation, generated by a down-going electron horseshoe distribution is due to a backward wave cyclotron-maser emission process. The backward wave nature of the radiation contributes to upward refraction of the radiation that is also enhanced by a density inhomogeneity. We also show that the radiation is preferentially amplified along the auroral oval rather than transversely. The results are in agreement with recent Cluster observations.A unifying model for capture-recapture and distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5797
Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods extend traditional capture-recapture methods for estimating population density by using information contained in the location of traps. The The central feature of the improvement is estimation from the locations of traps at which animals were and were not captured to estimate of the distance over which animals are susceptible to capture. We show that standard SECR models are a special case of a more general class of model in which animal detection is not certain, but some information is available about the location of detected animals. The model class accommodates a range of spatial data types and includes as a special case mark-recapture distance sampling, where distances to detected animals are recorded by multiple observers. Other examples of additional information that can be included are bearing to detected animals, strength of acoustic signals received from detected animals, and time of arrival of acoustic signals at detectors. Errors in variables are easily incorporated. We illustrate the versatility of the model and method through a number of applications, in each case using real and simulated data, and comparing our results with those from previous studies where these are available.
Funding: Part-funded by Fundacao Nacional para a Cienca e Technologia, Portugal (FCT) under the project PEst OE/MAT/UI0006/2011 (Marques) and the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EP/I000917/1
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, D. L.Stevenson, B.C.Kidney, D.Thomas, L.Marques, T.A.Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods extend traditional capture-recapture methods for estimating population density by using information contained in the location of traps. The The central feature of the improvement is estimation from the locations of traps at which animals were and were not captured to estimate of the distance over which animals are susceptible to capture. We show that standard SECR models are a special case of a more general class of model in which animal detection is not certain, but some information is available about the location of detected animals. The model class accommodates a range of spatial data types and includes as a special case mark-recapture distance sampling, where distances to detected animals are recorded by multiple observers. Other examples of additional information that can be included are bearing to detected animals, strength of acoustic signals received from detected animals, and time of arrival of acoustic signals at detectors. Errors in variables are easily incorporated. We illustrate the versatility of the model and method through a number of applications, in each case using real and simulated data, and comparing our results with those from previous studies where these are available.Acoustic and foraging behavior of a Baird’s beaked whale, Berardius bairdii, exposed to simulated sonar
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5787
Beaked whales are hypothesized to be particularly sensitive to anthropogenic noise, based on previous strandings and limited experimental and observational data. However, few species have been studied in detail. We describe the underwater behavior of a Baird's beaked whale (Berardius bairdii) from the first deployment of a multi-sensor acoustic tag on this species. The animal exhibited shallow (23 ± 15 m max depth), intermediate (324 ± 49 m), and deep (1138 ± 243 m) dives. Echolocation clicks were produced with a mean inter-click interval of approximately 300 ms and peak frequency of 25 kHz. Two deep dives included presumed foraging behavior, with echolocation pulsed sounds (presumed prey capture attempts) associated with increased maneuvering, and sustained inverted swimming during the bottom phase of the dive. A controlled exposure to simulated mid-frequency active sonar (3.5–4 kHz) was conducted 4 hours after tag deployment, and within 3 minutes of exposure onset, the tagged whale increased swim speed and body movement, and continued to show unusual dive behavior for each of its next three dives, one of each type. These are the first data on the acoustic foraging behavior in this largest beaked whale species, and the first experimental demonstration of a response to simulated sonar.
Research was supported by the US Navy Chief of Naval Operations, Environmental Readiness Program, the Office of Naval Research, the Naval Postgraduate School, and the National Research Council.
2014-11-13T00:00:00ZStimpert, AlisonDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnSouthall, BrandonMoretti, DavidFalcone, ErinGoldbogen, JeremyFriedlaender, AriSchorr, GregCalambokidis, JohnBeaked whales are hypothesized to be particularly sensitive to anthropogenic noise, based on previous strandings and limited experimental and observational data. However, few species have been studied in detail. We describe the underwater behavior of a Baird's beaked whale (Berardius bairdii) from the first deployment of a multi-sensor acoustic tag on this species. The animal exhibited shallow (23 ± 15 m max depth), intermediate (324 ± 49 m), and deep (1138 ± 243 m) dives. Echolocation clicks were produced with a mean inter-click interval of approximately 300 ms and peak frequency of 25 kHz. Two deep dives included presumed foraging behavior, with echolocation pulsed sounds (presumed prey capture attempts) associated with increased maneuvering, and sustained inverted swimming during the bottom phase of the dive. A controlled exposure to simulated mid-frequency active sonar (3.5–4 kHz) was conducted 4 hours after tag deployment, and within 3 minutes of exposure onset, the tagged whale increased swim speed and body movement, and continued to show unusual dive behavior for each of its next three dives, one of each type. These are the first data on the acoustic foraging behavior in this largest beaked whale species, and the first experimental demonstration of a response to simulated sonar.The nature of separator current layers in MHS equilibria I. Current parallel to the separator
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5785
Separators, which are in many ways the three-dimensional equivalent to two-dimensional nulls, are important sites for magnetic reconnection. Magnetic reconnection occurs in strong current layers which have very short length scales. The aim of this work is to explore the nature of current layers around separators. A separator is a special field line which lies along the intersection of two separatrix surfaces and forms the boundary between four topologically distinct flux domains. In particular, here the current layer about a separator that joins two 3D nulls and lies along the intersection of their separatrix surfaces is investigated. A magnetic configuration containing a single separator embedded in a uniform plasma with a uniform electric current parallel to the separator is considered. This initial magnetic setup, which is not in equilibrium, relaxes in a non-resistive manner to form an equilibrium. The relaxation is achieved using the 3D MHD code, Lare3d, with resistivity set to zero. A series of experiments with varying initial current are run to investigate the characteristics of the resulting current layers present in the final (quasi-) equilibrium states. In each experiment, the separator collapses and a current layer forms along it. The dimensions and strength of the current layer increase with initial current. It is found that separator current layers formed from current parallel to the separator are twisted. Also the collapse of the separator is a process that evolves like an infinite-time singularity where the length, width and peak current in the layer grow slowly whilst the depth of the current layer decreases.
JEHS would like to thank STFC for financial support during her Ph.D and CEP acknowledges support from the STFC consolidated grant.
2015-01-01T00:00:00ZStevenson, Julie Elizabeth HelenParnell, Clare ElizabethPriest, Eric RonaldHaynes, Andrew LewisSeparators, which are in many ways the three-dimensional equivalent to two-dimensional nulls, are important sites for magnetic reconnection. Magnetic reconnection occurs in strong current layers which have very short length scales. The aim of this work is to explore the nature of current layers around separators. A separator is a special field line which lies along the intersection of two separatrix surfaces and forms the boundary between four topologically distinct flux domains. In particular, here the current layer about a separator that joins two 3D nulls and lies along the intersection of their separatrix surfaces is investigated. A magnetic configuration containing a single separator embedded in a uniform plasma with a uniform electric current parallel to the separator is considered. This initial magnetic setup, which is not in equilibrium, relaxes in a non-resistive manner to form an equilibrium. The relaxation is achieved using the 3D MHD code, Lare3d, with resistivity set to zero. A series of experiments with varying initial current are run to investigate the characteristics of the resulting current layers present in the final (quasi-) equilibrium states. In each experiment, the separator collapses and a current layer forms along it. The dimensions and strength of the current layer increase with initial current. It is found that separator current layers formed from current parallel to the separator are twisted. Also the collapse of the separator is a process that evolves like an infinite-time singularity where the length, width and peak current in the layer grow slowly whilst the depth of the current layer decreases.The probability of generating a finite simple group
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5658
We study the probability of generating a finite simple group, together with its generalisation PG,socG(d), the conditional probability of generating an almost simple finite group G by d elements, given that these elements generate G/ socG. We prove that PG,socG(2) ⩾ 53/90, with equality if and only if G is A6 or S6, and establish a similar result for PG,socG(3). Positive answers to longstanding questions of Wiegold on direct products, and of Mel’nikov on profinite groups, follow easily from our results.
2013-11-01T00:00:00ZMenezes, Nina EmmaQuick, MartynRoney-Dougal, Colva MaryWe study the probability of generating a finite simple group, together with its generalisation PG,socG(d), the conditional probability of generating an almost simple finite group G by d elements, given that these elements generate G/ socG. We prove that PG,socG(2) ⩾ 53/90, with equality if and only if G is A6 or S6, and establish a similar result for PG,socG(3). Positive answers to longstanding questions of Wiegold on direct products, and of Mel’nikov on profinite groups, follow easily from our results.The cooling of coronal plasmas. IV. Catastrophic cooling of loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5503
We examine the radiative cooling of coronal loops and demonstrate that the recently identified catastrophic cooling is due to the inability of a loop to sustain radiative/enthalpy cooling below a critical temperature, which can be >1 MK in flares, 0.5-1 MK in active regions, and 0.1 MK in long tenuous loops. Catastrophic cooling is characterized by a rapid fall in coronal temperature, while the coronal density changes by a small amount. Analytic expressions for the critical temperature are derived and show good agreement with numerical results. This effect considerably limits the lifetime of coronal plasmas below the critical temperature.
2013-07-20T00:00:00ZCargill, P.J.Bradshaw, S.J.We examine the radiative cooling of coronal loops and demonstrate that the recently identified catastrophic cooling is due to the inability of a loop to sustain radiative/enthalpy cooling below a critical temperature, which can be >1 MK in flares, 0.5-1 MK in active regions, and 0.1 MK in long tenuous loops. Catastrophic cooling is characterized by a rapid fall in coronal temperature, while the coronal density changes by a small amount. Analytic expressions for the critical temperature are derived and show good agreement with numerical results. This effect considerably limits the lifetime of coronal plasmas below the critical temperature.Recurrent explosive eruptions and the "sigmoid-to-arcade" transformation in the Sun driven by dynamical magnetic flux emergence
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5319
We report on three-dimensional MHD simulations of recurrent mini coronal mass ejection (CME)-like eruptions in a small active region (AR), which is formed by the dynamical emergence of a twisted (not kink unstable) flux tube from the solar interior. The eruptions develop as a result of the repeated formation and expulsion of new flux ropes due to continuous emergence and reconnection of sheared field lines along the polarity inversion line of the AR. The acceleration of the eruptions is triggered by tether-cutting reconnection at the current sheet underneath the erupting field. We find that each explosive eruption is followed by reformation of a sigmoidal structure and a subsequent "sigmoid-to-flare arcade" transformation in the AR. These results might have implications for recurrent CMEs and eruptive sigmoids/flares observations and theoretical studies.
The authors acknowledge support by EU (IEF-272549 grant) and the Royal Society.
2014-05-10T00:00:00ZArchontis, V.Hood, A.W.Tsinganos, K.We report on three-dimensional MHD simulations of recurrent mini coronal mass ejection (CME)-like eruptions in a small active region (AR), which is formed by the dynamical emergence of a twisted (not kink unstable) flux tube from the solar interior. The eruptions develop as a result of the repeated formation and expulsion of new flux ropes due to continuous emergence and reconnection of sheared field lines along the polarity inversion line of the AR. The acceleration of the eruptions is triggered by tether-cutting reconnection at the current sheet underneath the erupting field. We find that each explosive eruption is followed by reformation of a sigmoidal structure and a subsequent "sigmoid-to-flare arcade" transformation in the AR. These results might have implications for recurrent CMEs and eruptive sigmoids/flares observations and theoretical studies.Observations of a hybrid double-streamer/pseudostreamer in the solar corona
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5318
We report on the first observation of a single hybrid magnetic structure that contains both a pseudostreamer and a double streamer. This structure was originally observed by the SWAP instrument on board the PROBA2 satellite between 2013 May 5 and 10. It consists of a pair of filament channels near the south pole of the Sun. On the western edge of the structure, the magnetic morphology above the filaments is that of a side-by-side double streamer, with open field between the two channels. On the eastern edge, the magnetic morphology is that of a coronal pseudostreamer without the central open field. We investigated this structure with multiple observations and modeling techniques. We describe the topology and dynamic consequences of such a unified structure.
D.B.S. and L.A.R. acknowledge support from the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) through the ESA-PRODEX program, grant No. 4000103240. S.J.P. acknowledges the financial support of the Isle of Man Government.
2014-05-20T00:00:00ZRachmeler, L.A.Platten, S.J.Bethge, C.Seaton, D.B.Yeates, A.R.We report on the first observation of a single hybrid magnetic structure that contains both a pseudostreamer and a double streamer. This structure was originally observed by the SWAP instrument on board the PROBA2 satellite between 2013 May 5 and 10. It consists of a pair of filament channels near the south pole of the Sun. On the western edge of the structure, the magnetic morphology above the filaments is that of a side-by-side double streamer, with open field between the two channels. On the eastern edge, the magnetic morphology is that of a coronal pseudostreamer without the central open field. We investigated this structure with multiple observations and modeling techniques. We describe the topology and dynamic consequences of such a unified structure.Active region emission measure distributions and implications for nanoflare heating
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5305
The temperature dependence of the emission measure (EM) in the core of active regions coronal loops is an important diagnostic of heating processes. Observations indicate that EM(T) ~ T a below approximately 4 MK, with 2 < a < 5. Zero-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of nanoflare trains are used to demonstrate the dependence of a on the time between individual nanoflares (NT) and the distribution of nanoflare energies. If TN is greater than a few thousand seconds, a < 3. For smaller values, trains of equally spaced nanoflares cannot account for the observed range of a if the distribution of nanoflare energies is either constant, randomly distributed, or a power law. Power law distributions where there is a delay between consecutive nanoflares proportional to the energy of the second nanoflare do lead to the observed range of a. However, TN must then be of the order of hundreds to no more than a few thousand seconds. If a nanoflare leads to the relaxation of a stressed coronal field to a near-potential state, the time taken to build up the required magnetic energy is thus too long to account for the EM measurements. Instead, it is suggested that a nanoflare involves the relaxation from one stressed coronal state to another, dissipating only a small fraction of the available magnetic energy. A consequence is that nanoflare energies may be smaller than previously envisioned.
2014-03-20T00:00:00ZCargill, P.J.The temperature dependence of the emission measure (EM) in the core of active regions coronal loops is an important diagnostic of heating processes. Observations indicate that EM(T) ~ T a below approximately 4 MK, with 2 < a < 5. Zero-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of nanoflare trains are used to demonstrate the dependence of a on the time between individual nanoflares (NT) and the distribution of nanoflare energies. If TN is greater than a few thousand seconds, a < 3. For smaller values, trains of equally spaced nanoflares cannot account for the observed range of a if the distribution of nanoflare energies is either constant, randomly distributed, or a power law. Power law distributions where there is a delay between consecutive nanoflares proportional to the energy of the second nanoflare do lead to the observed range of a. However, TN must then be of the order of hundreds to no more than a few thousand seconds. If a nanoflare leads to the relaxation of a stressed coronal field to a near-potential state, the time taken to build up the required magnetic energy is thus too long to account for the EM measurements. Instead, it is suggested that a nanoflare involves the relaxation from one stressed coronal state to another, dissipating only a small fraction of the available magnetic energy. A consequence is that nanoflare energies may be smaller than previously envisioned.The solar cycle variation of topological structures in the global solar corona
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5271
Context. The complicated distribution of magnetic flux across the solar photosphere results in a complex web of coronal magnetic field structures. To understand this complexity, the magnetic skeleton of the coronal field can be calculated. The skeleton highlights the (separatrix) surfaces that divide the field into topologically distinct regions, allowing open-field regions on the solar surface to be located. Furthermore, separatrix surfaces and their intersections with other separatrix surfaces (i.e., separators) are important likely energy release sites. Aims. The aim of this paper is to investigate, throughout the solar cycle, the nature of coronal magnetic-field topologies that arise under the potential-field source-surface approximation. In particular, we characterise the typical global fields at solar maximum and minimum. Methods. Global magnetic fields are extrapolated from observed Kitt Peak and SOLIS synoptic magnetograms, from Carrington rotations 1645 to 2144, using the potential-field source-surface model. This allows the variations in the coronal skeleton to be studied over three solar cycles. Results. The main building blocks which make up magnetic fields are identified and classified according to the nature of their separatrix surfaces. The magnetic skeleton reveals that, at solar maximum, the global coronal field involves a multitude of topological structures at all latitudes criss-crossing throughout the atmosphere. Many open-field regions exist originating anywhere on the photosphere. At solar minimum, the coronal topology is heavily influenced by the solar magnetic dipole. A strong dipole results in a simple large-scale structure involving just two large polar open-field regions, but, at short radial distances between ± 60° latitude, the small-scale topology is complex. If the solar magnetic dipole if weak, as in the recent minimum, then the low-latitude quiet-sun magnetic fields may be globally significant enough to create many disconnected open-field regions between ± 60° latitude, in addition to the two polar open-field regions.
S.J.P. acknowledges financial support from the Isle of Man Government. E.R.P. is grateful to the Leverhulme Trust for his emeritus fellowship. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement SWIFF (project No. 263340, www.swiff.eu).
2014-05-01T00:00:00ZPlatten, S.J.Parnell, C.E.Haynes, A.L.Priest, E.R.MacKay, D.H.Context. The complicated distribution of magnetic flux across the solar photosphere results in a complex web of coronal magnetic field structures. To understand this complexity, the magnetic skeleton of the coronal field can be calculated. The skeleton highlights the (separatrix) surfaces that divide the field into topologically distinct regions, allowing open-field regions on the solar surface to be located. Furthermore, separatrix surfaces and their intersections with other separatrix surfaces (i.e., separators) are important likely energy release sites. Aims. The aim of this paper is to investigate, throughout the solar cycle, the nature of coronal magnetic-field topologies that arise under the potential-field source-surface approximation. In particular, we characterise the typical global fields at solar maximum and minimum. Methods. Global magnetic fields are extrapolated from observed Kitt Peak and SOLIS synoptic magnetograms, from Carrington rotations 1645 to 2144, using the potential-field source-surface model. This allows the variations in the coronal skeleton to be studied over three solar cycles. Results. The main building blocks which make up magnetic fields are identified and classified according to the nature of their separatrix surfaces. The magnetic skeleton reveals that, at solar maximum, the global coronal field involves a multitude of topological structures at all latitudes criss-crossing throughout the atmosphere. Many open-field regions exist originating anywhere on the photosphere. At solar minimum, the coronal topology is heavily influenced by the solar magnetic dipole. A strong dipole results in a simple large-scale structure involving just two large polar open-field regions, but, at short radial distances between ± 60° latitude, the small-scale topology is complex. If the solar magnetic dipole if weak, as in the recent minimum, then the low-latitude quiet-sun magnetic fields may be globally significant enough to create many disconnected open-field regions between ± 60° latitude, in addition to the two polar open-field regions.Resistive magnetohydrodynamic reconnection : resolving long-term, chaotic dynamics
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5233
In this paper, we address the long-term evolution of an idealised double current system entering reconnection regimes where chaotic behavior plays a prominent role. Our aim is to quantify the energetics in high magnetic Reynolds number evolutions, enriched by secondary tearing events, multiple magnetic island coalescence, and compressive versus resistive heating scenarios. Our study will pay particular attention to the required numerical resolutions achievable by modern (grid-adaptive) computations, and comment on the challenge associated with resolving chaotic island formation and interaction. We will use shock-capturing, conservative, grid-adaptive simulations for investigating trends dominated by both physical (resistivity) and numerical (resolution) parameters, and confront them with (visco-)resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations performed with very different, but equally widely used discretization schemes. This will allow us to comment on the obtained evolutions in a manner irrespective of the adopted discretization strategy. Our findings demonstrate that all schemes used (finite volume based shock-capturing, high order finite differences, and particle in cell-like methods) qualitatively agree on the various evolutionary stages, and that resistivity values of order 0.001 already can lead to chaotic island appearance. However, none of the methods exploited demonstrates convergence in the strong sense in these chaotic regimes. At the same time, nonperturbed tests for showing convergence over long time scales in ideal to resistive regimes are provided as well, where all methods are shown to agree. Both the advantages and disadvantages of specific discretizations as applied to this challenging problem are discussed.
We acknowledge financial support from the EC FP7/2007-2013 Grant Agreement SWIFF (No. 263340) and from project GOA/2009/009 (KU Leuven). This research has been funded by the Interuniversity Attraction Poles Programme initiated by the Belgian Science Policy Office (IAP P7/08 CHARM). Part of the simulations used the infrastructure of the VSC-Flemish Supercomputer Center, funded by the Hercules Foundation and the Flemish Government-Department EWI. Another part of the simulations was done at the former Danish Center for Scientific Computing at Copenhagen University which is now part of DeIC Danish e-Infrastructure Cooperation.
2013-09-13T00:00:00ZKeppens, R.Porth, O.Galsgaard, K.Frederiksen, J.T.Restante, A.L.Lapenta, G.Parnell, C.In this paper, we address the long-term evolution of an idealised double current system entering reconnection regimes where chaotic behavior plays a prominent role. Our aim is to quantify the energetics in high magnetic Reynolds number evolutions, enriched by secondary tearing events, multiple magnetic island coalescence, and compressive versus resistive heating scenarios. Our study will pay particular attention to the required numerical resolutions achievable by modern (grid-adaptive) computations, and comment on the challenge associated with resolving chaotic island formation and interaction. We will use shock-capturing, conservative, grid-adaptive simulations for investigating trends dominated by both physical (resistivity) and numerical (resolution) parameters, and confront them with (visco-)resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations performed with very different, but equally widely used discretization schemes. This will allow us to comment on the obtained evolutions in a manner irrespective of the adopted discretization strategy. Our findings demonstrate that all schemes used (finite volume based shock-capturing, high order finite differences, and particle in cell-like methods) qualitatively agree on the various evolutionary stages, and that resistivity values of order 0.001 already can lead to chaotic island appearance. However, none of the methods exploited demonstrates convergence in the strong sense in these chaotic regimes. At the same time, nonperturbed tests for showing convergence over long time scales in ideal to resistive regimes are provided as well, where all methods are shown to agree. Both the advantages and disadvantages of specific discretizations as applied to this challenging problem are discussed.Effect of collisions on amplification of laser beams by Brillouin scattering in plasmas
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5173
We report on particle in cell simulations of energy transfer between a laser pump beam and a counter-propagating seed beam using the Brillouin scattering process in uniform plasma including collisions. The results presented show that the ion acoustic waves excited through naturally occurring Brillouin scattering of the pump field are preferentially damped without affecting the driven Brillouin scattering process resulting from the beating of the pump and seed fields together. We find that collisions, including the effects of Landau damping, allow for a more efficient transfer of energy between the laser beams, and a significant reduction in the amount of seed pre-pulse produced.
Authors KH, RT, DCS, RAC, RB were supported by EPSRC grant EP/G04239X/1.
2013-10-01T00:00:00ZHumphrey, K. A.Trines, R. M. G. M.Fiuza, F.Speirs, D. C.Norreys, P.Cairns, R. A.Silva, L. O.Bingham, R.We report on particle in cell simulations of energy transfer between a laser pump beam and a counter-propagating seed beam using the Brillouin scattering process in uniform plasma including collisions. The results presented show that the ion acoustic waves excited through naturally occurring Brillouin scattering of the pump field are preferentially damped without affecting the driven Brillouin scattering process resulting from the beating of the pump and seed fields together. We find that collisions, including the effects of Landau damping, allow for a more efficient transfer of energy between the laser beams, and a significant reduction in the amount of seed pre-pulse produced.First comparison of wave observations from CoMP and AIA/SDO
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5153
Context. Waves have long been thought to contribute to the heating of the solar corona and the generation of the solar wind. Recent observations have demonstrated evidence of quasi-periodic longitudinal disturbances and ubiquitous transverse wave propagation in many different coronal environments. Aims. This paper investigates signatures of different types of oscillatory behaviour, both above the solar limb and on-disk, by comparing findings from the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) for the same active region. Methods. We study both transverse and longitudinal motion by comparing and contrasting time-distance images of parallel and perpendicular cuts along/across active region fan loops. Comparisons between parallel space-time diagram features in CoMP Doppler velocity and transverse oscillations in AIA images are made, together with space-time analysis of propagating quasi-periodic intensity features seen near the base of loops in AIA. Results. Signatures of transverse motions are observed along the same magnetic structure using CoMP Doppler velocity (vphase = 600 → 750 km s-1, P = 3 → 6 min) and in AIA/SDO above the limb (P = 3 → 8 min). Quasi-periodic intensity features (vphase = 100 → 200 km s-1, P = 6 → 11 min) also travel along the base of the same structure. On the disk, signatures of both transverse and longitudinal intensity features were observed by AIA, and both show similar properties to signatures found along structures anchored in the same active region three days earlier above the limb. Correlated features are recovered by space-time analysis of neighbouring tracks over perpendicular distances of ≲2.6 Mm.
I.D.M. acknowledges support of a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreements SOLSPANET (project No. 269299, www.solspanet.eu/solspanet).
2013-08-01T00:00:00ZThrelfall, James WilliamDe Moortel, InekeMcIntosh, ScottBethge, ChristianContext. Waves have long been thought to contribute to the heating of the solar corona and the generation of the solar wind. Recent observations have demonstrated evidence of quasi-periodic longitudinal disturbances and ubiquitous transverse wave propagation in many different coronal environments. Aims. This paper investigates signatures of different types of oscillatory behaviour, both above the solar limb and on-disk, by comparing findings from the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) for the same active region. Methods. We study both transverse and longitudinal motion by comparing and contrasting time-distance images of parallel and perpendicular cuts along/across active region fan loops. Comparisons between parallel space-time diagram features in CoMP Doppler velocity and transverse oscillations in AIA images are made, together with space-time analysis of propagating quasi-periodic intensity features seen near the base of loops in AIA. Results. Signatures of transverse motions are observed along the same magnetic structure using CoMP Doppler velocity (vphase = 600 → 750 km s-1, P = 3 → 6 min) and in AIA/SDO above the limb (P = 3 → 8 min). Quasi-periodic intensity features (vphase = 100 → 200 km s-1, P = 6 → 11 min) also travel along the base of the same structure. On the disk, signatures of both transverse and longitudinal intensity features were observed by AIA, and both show similar properties to signatures found along structures anchored in the same active region three days earlier above the limb. Correlated features are recovered by space-time analysis of neighbouring tracks over perpendicular distances of ≲2.6 Mm.Fitting models of multiple-hypotheses to partial population data : investigating the causes of cycles in red grouse
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5119
There are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state-space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles.
2009-09-01T00:00:00ZNew, LMatthiopoulos, JasonRedpath, SBuckland, Stephen TerrenceThere are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state-space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles.conting : an R package for Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5050
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the R package conting for the Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables using hierarchical log-linear models. This package allows a user to identify interactions between categorical factors (via complete contingency tables) and to estimate closed population sizes using capture-recapture studies (via incomplete contingency tables). The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In particular, implementations of the Metropolis-Hastings and reversible jump algorithms appropriate for log-linear models are employed. The conting package is demonstrated on four real examples.
2014-06-01T00:00:00ZOverstall, AntonyKing, RuthThe aim of this paper is to demonstrate the R package conting for the Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables using hierarchical log-linear models. This package allows a user to identify interactions between categorical factors (via complete contingency tables) and to estimate closed population sizes using capture-recapture studies (via incomplete contingency tables). The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In particular, implementations of the Metropolis-Hastings and reversible jump algorithms appropriate for log-linear models are employed. The conting package is demonstrated on four real examples.Using hidden Markov models to deal with availability bias on line transect surveys
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5017
We develop estimators for line transect surveys of animals that are stochastically unavailable for detection while within detection range. The detection process is formulated as a hidden Markov model with a binary state-dependent observation model that depends on both perpendicular and forward distances. This provides a parametric method of dealing with availability bias when estimates of availability process parameters are available even if series of availability events themselves are not. We apply the estimators to an aerial and a shipboard survey of whales, and investigate their properties by simulation. They are shown to be more general and more flexible than existing estimators based on parametric models of the availability process. We also find that methods using availability correction factors can be very biased when surveys are not close to being instantaneous, as can estimators that assume temporal independence in availability when there is temporal dependence.
This work was supported by EPSRC grant EP/I000917/1
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, David LouisZucchini, WalterHeide-Jørgensen, M.P.Cañadas, A.Langrock, RolandWe develop estimators for line transect surveys of animals that are stochastically unavailable for detection while within detection range. The detection process is formulated as a hidden Markov model with a binary state-dependent observation model that depends on both perpendicular and forward distances. This provides a parametric method of dealing with availability bias when estimates of availability process parameters are available even if series of availability events themselves are not. We apply the estimators to an aerial and a shipboard survey of whales, and investigate their properties by simulation. They are shown to be more general and more flexible than existing estimators based on parametric models of the availability process. We also find that methods using availability correction factors can be very biased when surveys are not close to being instantaneous, as can estimators that assume temporal independence in availability when there is temporal dependence.J J Thomson and the Discovery of the Electron
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4991
One experiment, more than any other, is often associated with the `discovery of the electron' in 1897. This is J J Thomson's determination of the mass to charge ratio (m/e) of cathode rays by deflecting them in magnetic and electric fields. Yet this experiment was performed two months after Thomson first announced that cathode rays were very small, negatively charged particles. So why was it important? I look at Thomson's route to, and conduct of, the experiment, and then at how his ideas were received.
1999-01-01T00:00:00ZFalconer, Isobel JessieOne experiment, more than any other, is often associated with the `discovery of the electron' in 1897. This is J J Thomson's determination of the mass to charge ratio (m/e) of cathode rays by deflecting them in magnetic and electric fields. Yet this experiment was performed two months after Thomson first announced that cathode rays were very small, negatively charged particles. So why was it important? I look at Thomson's route to, and conduct of, the experiment, and then at how his ideas were received.Injecting drug users in Scotland, 2006 : listing, number, demography, and opiate-related death-rates
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4904
Using Bayesian capture–recapture analysis, we estimated the number of current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland in 2006 from the cross-counts of 5670 IDUs listed on four data-sources: social enquiry reports (901 IDUs listed), hospital records (953), drug treatment agencies (3504), and recent Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnoses (827 listed as IDU-risk). Further, we accessed exact numbers of opiate-related drugs-related deaths (DRDs) in 2006 and 2007 to improve estimation of Scotland's DRD rates per 100 current IDUs. Using all four data-sources, and model-averaging of standard hierarchical log-linear models to allow for pairwise interactions between data-sources and/or demographic classifications, Scotland had an estimated 31700 IDUs in 2006 (95% credible interval: 24900–38700); but 25000 IDUs (95% CI: 20700–35000) by excluding recent HCV diagnoses whose IDU-risk can refer to past injecting. Only in the younger age-group (15–34 years) were Scotland's opiate-related DRD rates significantly lower for females than males. Older males’ opiate-related DRD rate was 1.9 (1.24–2.40) per 100 current IDUs without or 1.3 (0.94–1.64) with inclusion of recent HCV diagnoses. If, indeed, Scotland had only 25000 current IDUs in 2006, with only 8200 of them aged 35+ years, the opiate-related DRD rate is higher among this older age group than has been appreciated hitherto. There is counter-balancing good news for the public health: the hitherto sharp increase in older current IDUs had stalled by 2006.
2013-06-01T00:00:00ZKing, RuthBird, SheilaOverstall, AntonyHay, GordonHutchinson, SharonUsing Bayesian capture–recapture analysis, we estimated the number of current injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland in 2006 from the cross-counts of 5670 IDUs listed on four data-sources: social enquiry reports (901 IDUs listed), hospital records (953), drug treatment agencies (3504), and recent Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnoses (827 listed as IDU-risk). Further, we accessed exact numbers of opiate-related drugs-related deaths (DRDs) in 2006 and 2007 to improve estimation of Scotland's DRD rates per 100 current IDUs. Using all four data-sources, and model-averaging of standard hierarchical log-linear models to allow for pairwise interactions between data-sources and/or demographic classifications, Scotland had an estimated 31700 IDUs in 2006 (95% credible interval: 24900–38700); but 25000 IDUs (95% CI: 20700–35000) by excluding recent HCV diagnoses whose IDU-risk can refer to past injecting. Only in the younger age-group (15–34 years) were Scotland's opiate-related DRD rates significantly lower for females than males. Older males’ opiate-related DRD rate was 1.9 (1.24–2.40) per 100 current IDUs without or 1.3 (0.94–1.64) with inclusion of recent HCV diagnoses. If, indeed, Scotland had only 25000 current IDUs in 2006, with only 8200 of them aged 35+ years, the opiate-related DRD rate is higher among this older age group than has been appreciated hitherto. There is counter-balancing good news for the public health: the hitherto sharp increase in older current IDUs had stalled by 2006.Standing kink modes in three-dimensional coronal loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4745
So far, the straight flux tube model proposed by Edwin & Roberts is the most commonly used tool in practical coronal seismology, in particular, to infer values of the (coronal) magnetic field from observed, standing kink mode oscillations. In this paper, we compare the period predicted by this basic model with three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of standing kink mode oscillations, as the period is a crucial parameter in the seismological inversion to determine the magnetic field. We perform numerical simulations of standing kink modes in both straight and curved 3D coronal loops and consider excitation by internal and external drivers. The period of oscillation for the displacement of dense coronal loops is determined by the loop length and the kink speed, in agreement with the estimate based on analytical theory for straight flux tubes. For curved coronal loops embedded in a magnetic arcade and excited by an external driver, a secondary mode with a period determined by the loop length and external Alfvén speed is also present. When a low number of oscillations is considered, these two periods can result in a single, non-resolved (broad) peak in the power spectrum, particularly for low values of the density contrast for which the two periods will be relatively similar. In that case (and for this particular geometry), the presence of this additional mode would lead to ambiguous seismological estimates of the magnetic field strength.
I.D.M. acknowledges support from a Royal Society University Research Fellowship. The computational work for this paper was carried out at the joint STFC and SFC (SRIF)-fundedclusterattheUniversityofStAndrews(UK). The research leading to these results has also received funding from the European Commissions Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement SOLSPANET (project No. 269299;www.solspanet.eu/solspanet).
2014-03-11T00:00:00ZDe Moortel, InekePascoe, David JamesSo far, the straight flux tube model proposed by Edwin & Roberts is the most commonly used tool in practical coronal seismology, in particular, to infer values of the (coronal) magnetic field from observed, standing kink mode oscillations. In this paper, we compare the period predicted by this basic model with three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulations of standing kink mode oscillations, as the period is a crucial parameter in the seismological inversion to determine the magnetic field. We perform numerical simulations of standing kink modes in both straight and curved 3D coronal loops and consider excitation by internal and external drivers. The period of oscillation for the displacement of dense coronal loops is determined by the loop length and the kink speed, in agreement with the estimate based on analytical theory for straight flux tubes. For curved coronal loops embedded in a magnetic arcade and excited by an external driver, a secondary mode with a period determined by the loop length and external Alfvén speed is also present. When a low number of oscillations is considered, these two periods can result in a single, non-resolved (broad) peak in the power spectrum, particularly for low values of the density contrast for which the two periods will be relatively similar. In that case (and for this particular geometry), the presence of this additional mode would lead to ambiguous seismological estimates of the magnetic field strength.Potential Evidence for the Onset of Alfvénic Turbulence in Trans-equatorial Coronal Loops
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4740
This study investigates Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter Doppler-shift observations of a large, off-limb, trans-equatorial loop system observed on 2012 April 10-11. Doppler-shift oscillations with a broad range of frequencies are found to propagate along the loop with a speed of about 500 km s–1. The power spectrum of perturbations travelling up from both loop footpoints is remarkably symmetric, probably due to the almost perfect north-south alignment of the loop system. Compared to the power spectrum at the footpoints of the loop, the Fourier power at the apex appears to be higher in the high-frequency part of the spectrum than expected from theoretical models. We suggest this excess high-frequency power could be tentative evidence for the onset of a cascade of the low-to-mid frequency waves into (Alfvénic) turbulence.
2014-02-10T00:00:00ZDe Moortel, InekeMcIntosh, ScottThrelfall, James WilliamBethge, ChristianLiu, JThis study investigates Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter Doppler-shift observations of a large, off-limb, trans-equatorial loop system observed on 2012 April 10-11. Doppler-shift oscillations with a broad range of frequencies are found to propagate along the loop with a speed of about 500 km s–1. The power spectrum of perturbations travelling up from both loop footpoints is remarkably symmetric, probably due to the almost perfect north-south alignment of the loop system. Compared to the power spectrum at the footpoints of the loop, the Fourier power at the apex appears to be higher in the high-frequency part of the spectrum than expected from theoretical models. We suggest this excess high-frequency power could be tentative evidence for the onset of a cascade of the low-to-mid frequency waves into (Alfvénic) turbulence.On the commutator lengths of certain classes of finitely presented groups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4719
For a finite group G = 〈X〉 (X ≠ G), the least positive integer ML(G) is called the maximum length of G with respect to the generating set X if every element of G maybe represented as a product of at most ML(G) elements of X. The maximum length of G, denoted by ML (G), is defined to be the minimum of {ML(G) G = 〈X〉, X ≠ G, X ≠ G - {1}}. The well-known commutator length of a group G, denoted by c (G), satisfies the inequality c (G) ≤ ML(G′), where G′ is the derived subgroup of G. In this paper we study the properties of ML (G) and by using this inequality we give upper bounds for the commutator lengths of certain classes of finite groups. In some cases these upper bounds involve the interesting sequences of Fibonacci and Lucas numbers.
2006-01-01T00:00:00ZDoostie, H.Campbell, P.P.For a finite group G = 〈X〉 (X ≠ G), the least positive integer ML(G) is called the maximum length of G with respect to the generating set X if every element of G maybe represented as a product of at most ML(G) elements of X. The maximum length of G, denoted by ML (G), is defined to be the minimum of {ML(G) G = 〈X〉, X ≠ G, X ≠ G - {1}}. The well-known commutator length of a group G, denoted by c (G), satisfies the inequality c (G) ≤ ML(G′), where G′ is the derived subgroup of G. In this paper we study the properties of ML (G) and by using this inequality we give upper bounds for the commutator lengths of certain classes of finite groups. In some cases these upper bounds involve the interesting sequences of Fibonacci and Lucas numbers.An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts.
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4688
1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. 3. This approach requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used, and produces similar estimates. The simplifications made the models easier to fit, reducing their computational intensity and allowing regional differences in demographic parameters to be considered. 4. The approach is not restricted to situations where only a single component of the population is observable, but, particularly in those cases, provides a practical method for extracting information from limited datasets. 5. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZLonergan, Michael EdwardThompson, DavidThomas, Leonard JosephDuck, Callan David1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. 3. This approach requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used, and produces similar estimates. The simplifications made the models easier to fit, reducing their computational intensity and allowing regional differences in demographic parameters to be considered. 4. The approach is not restricted to situations where only a single component of the population is observable, but, particularly in those cases, provides a practical method for extracting information from limited datasets. 5. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.Modelling group dynamic animal movement
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4555
1). Group dynamics are a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognized, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However, to date, practical statistical methods, which can include group dynamics in animal movement models, have been lacking. 2). We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multistate random walks. 3). While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias in non-ideal scenarios, we show that generally the estimation of models of this type is both feasible and ecologically informative. 4). We illustrate the approach using real movement data from 11 reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Results indicate a directional bias towards a group centroid for reindeer in an encamped state. Though the attraction to the group centroid is relatively weak, our model successfully captures group-influenced movement dynamics. Specifically, as compared to a regular mixture of correlated random walks, the group dynamic model more accurately predicts the non-diffusive behaviour of a cohesive mobile group. 5). As technology continues to develop, it will become easier and less expensive to tag multiple individuals within a group in order to follow their movements. Our work provides a first inferential framework for understanding the relative influences of individual versus group-level movement decisions. This framework can be extended to include covariates corresponding to environmental influences or body condition. As such, this framework allows for a broader understanding of the many internal and external factors that can influence an individual's movement.
2014-02-01T00:00:00ZLangrock, RolandHopcraft, GrantBlackwell, PaulGoodall, VictoriaKing, RuthNiu, MuPatterson, TobyPedersen, MartinSkarin, AnnaSchick, Robert Schilling1). Group dynamics are a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognized, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However, to date, practical statistical methods, which can include group dynamics in animal movement models, have been lacking. 2). We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multistate random walks. 3). While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias in non-ideal scenarios, we show that generally the estimation of models of this type is both feasible and ecologically informative. 4). We illustrate the approach using real movement data from 11 reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Results indicate a directional bias towards a group centroid for reindeer in an encamped state. Though the attraction to the group centroid is relatively weak, our model successfully captures group-influenced movement dynamics. Specifically, as compared to a regular mixture of correlated random walks, the group dynamic model more accurately predicts the non-diffusive behaviour of a cohesive mobile group. 5). As technology continues to develop, it will become easier and less expensive to tag multiple individuals within a group in order to follow their movements. Our work provides a first inferential framework for understanding the relative influences of individual versus group-level movement decisions. This framework can be extended to include covariates corresponding to environmental influences or body condition. As such, this framework allows for a broader understanding of the many internal and external factors that can influence an individual's movement.Living on the edge : Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) density in the margins of Its geographical range
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4523
Over the last decades roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations have increased in number and distribution throughout Europe. Such increases have profound impacts on ecosystems, both positive and negative. Therefore monitoring roe deer populations is essential for the appropriate management of this species, in order to achieve a balance between conservation and mitigation of the negative impacts. Despite being required for an effective management plan, the study of roe deer ecology in Portugal is at an early stage, and hence there is still a complete lack of knowledge of roe deer density within its known range. Distance sampling of pellet groups coupled with production and decay rates for pellet groups provided density estimates for roe deer in northeastern Portugal (Lombada National Hunting Area - LNHA, Serra de Montesinho – SM and Serra da Nogueira – SN; LNHA and SM located in Montesinho Natural Park). The estimated roe deer density using a stratified detection function was 1.23/100 ha for LNHA, 4.87/100 ha for SM and 4.25/100 ha in SN, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.68 to 2.21, 3.08 to 7.71 and 2.25 to 8.03, respectively. For the entire area, the estimated density was about 3.51/100 ha (95% CI - 2.26–5.45). This method can provide estimates of roe deer density, which will ultimately support management decisions. However, effective monitoring should be based on long-term studies that are able to detect population fluctuations. This study represents the initial phase of roe deer monitoring at the edge of its European range and intends to fill the gap in this species ecology, as the gathering of similar data over a number of years will provide the basis for stronger inferences. Monitoring should be continued, although the study area should be increased to evaluate the accuracy of estimates and assess the impact of management actions.
2014-02-01T00:00:00ZValente, Ana M.Fonseca, CarlosMarques, Tiago A.Santos, João P.Rodrigues, RogérioTorres, Rita TinocoOver the last decades roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations have increased in number and distribution throughout Europe. Such increases have profound impacts on ecosystems, both positive and negative. Therefore monitoring roe deer populations is essential for the appropriate management of this species, in order to achieve a balance between conservation and mitigation of the negative impacts. Despite being required for an effective management plan, the study of roe deer ecology in Portugal is at an early stage, and hence there is still a complete lack of knowledge of roe deer density within its known range. Distance sampling of pellet groups coupled with production and decay rates for pellet groups provided density estimates for roe deer in northeastern Portugal (Lombada National Hunting Area - LNHA, Serra de Montesinho – SM and Serra da Nogueira – SN; LNHA and SM located in Montesinho Natural Park). The estimated roe deer density using a stratified detection function was 1.23/100 ha for LNHA, 4.87/100 ha for SM and 4.25/100 ha in SN, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.68 to 2.21, 3.08 to 7.71 and 2.25 to 8.03, respectively. For the entire area, the estimated density was about 3.51/100 ha (95% CI - 2.26–5.45). This method can provide estimates of roe deer density, which will ultimately support management decisions. However, effective monitoring should be based on long-term studies that are able to detect population fluctuations. This study represents the initial phase of roe deer monitoring at the edge of its European range and intends to fill the gap in this species ecology, as the gathering of similar data over a number of years will provide the basis for stronger inferences. Monitoring should be continued, although the study area should be increased to evaluate the accuracy of estimates and assess the impact of management actions.A risk function for behavioral disruption of Blainville’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) from mid-frequency active sonar
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4522
There is increasing concern about the potential effects of noise pollution on marine life in the world’s oceans. For marine mammals, anthropogenic sounds may cause behavioral disruption, and this can be quantified using a risk function that relates sound exposure to a measured behavioral response. Beaked whales are a taxon of deep diving whales that may be particularly susceptible to naval sonar as the species has been associated with sonar-related mass stranding events. Here we derive the first empirical risk function for Blainville’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) by combining in situ data from passive acoustic monitoring of animal vocalizations and navy sonar operations with precise ship tracks and sound field modeling. The hydrophone array at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center, Bahamas, was used to locate vocalizing groups of Blainville’s beaked whales and identify sonar transmissions before, during, and after Mid-Frequency Active (MFA) sonar operations. Sonar transmission times and source levels were combined with ship tracks using a sound propagation model to estimate the received level (RL) at each hydrophone. A generalized additive model was fitted to data to model the presence or absence of the start of foraging dives in 30-minute periods as a function of the corresponding sonar RL at the hydrophone closest to the center of each group. This model was then used to construct a risk function that can be used to estimate the probability of a behavioral change (cessation of foraging) the individual members of a Blainville’s beaked whale population might experience as a function of sonar RL. The function predicts a 0.5 probability of disturbance at a RL of 150dBrms re µPa (CI: 144 to 155) This is 15dB lower than the level used historically by the US Navy in their risk assessments but 10 dB higher than the current 140 dB step-function
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZMoretti, DavidThomas, LenMarques, Tiago A.Harwood, JohnDilley, AshleyNeales, BertShaffer, JessicaMccarthy, ENew, Leslie FrancesJarvis, SMorrissey, RonThere is increasing concern about the potential effects of noise pollution on marine life in the world’s oceans. For marine mammals, anthropogenic sounds may cause behavioral disruption, and this can be quantified using a risk function that relates sound exposure to a measured behavioral response. Beaked whales are a taxon of deep diving whales that may be particularly susceptible to naval sonar as the species has been associated with sonar-related mass stranding events. Here we derive the first empirical risk function for Blainville’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) by combining in situ data from passive acoustic monitoring of animal vocalizations and navy sonar operations with precise ship tracks and sound field modeling. The hydrophone array at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center, Bahamas, was used to locate vocalizing groups of Blainville’s beaked whales and identify sonar transmissions before, during, and after Mid-Frequency Active (MFA) sonar operations. Sonar transmission times and source levels were combined with ship tracks using a sound propagation model to estimate the received level (RL) at each hydrophone. A generalized additive model was fitted to data to model the presence or absence of the start of foraging dives in 30-minute periods as a function of the corresponding sonar RL at the hydrophone closest to the center of each group. This model was then used to construct a risk function that can be used to estimate the probability of a behavioral change (cessation of foraging) the individual members of a Blainville’s beaked whale population might experience as a function of sonar RL. The function predicts a 0.5 probability of disturbance at a RL of 150dBrms re µPa (CI: 144 to 155) This is 15dB lower than the level used historically by the US Navy in their risk assessments but 10 dB higher than the current 140 dB step-functionOptimizing sampling design to deal with mist-net avoidance in Amazonian birds and bats
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4520
Mist netting is a widely used technique to sample bird and bat assemblages. However, captures often decline with time because animals learn and avoid the locations of nets. This avoidance or net shyness can substantially decrease sampling efficiency. We quantified the day-to-day decline in captures of Amazonian birds and bats with mist nets set at the same location for four consecutive days. We also evaluated how net avoidance influences the efficiency of surveys under different logistic scenarios using re-sampling techniques. Net avoidance caused substantial declines in bird and bat captures, although more accentuated in the latter. Most of the decline occurred between the first and second days of netting: 28% in birds and 47% in bats. Captures of commoner species were more affected. The numbers of species detected also declined. Moving nets daily to minimize the avoidance effect increased captures by 30% in birds and 70% in bats. However, moving the location of nets may cause a reduction in netting time and captures. When moving the nets caused the loss of one netting day it was no longer advantageous to move the nets frequently. In bird surveys that could even decrease the number of individuals captured and species detected. Net avoidance can greatly affect sampling efficiency but adjustments in survey design can minimize this. Whenever nets can be moved without losing netting time and the objective is to capture many individuals, they should be moved daily. If the main objective is to survey species present then nets should still be moved for bats, but not for birds. However, if relocating nets causes a significant loss of netting time, moving them to reduce effects of shyness will not improve sampling efficiency in either group. Overall, our findings can improve the design of mist netting sampling strategies in other tropical areas.
2013-09-18T00:00:00ZMarques, Joao TiagoRamos Pereira, Maria J.Marques, Tiago A.Santos, Carlos DavidSantana, JoanaBeja, PedroPalmeirim, Jorge M.Mist netting is a widely used technique to sample bird and bat assemblages. However, captures often decline with time because animals learn and avoid the locations of nets. This avoidance or net shyness can substantially decrease sampling efficiency. We quantified the day-to-day decline in captures of Amazonian birds and bats with mist nets set at the same location for four consecutive days. We also evaluated how net avoidance influences the efficiency of surveys under different logistic scenarios using re-sampling techniques. Net avoidance caused substantial declines in bird and bat captures, although more accentuated in the latter. Most of the decline occurred between the first and second days of netting: 28% in birds and 47% in bats. Captures of commoner species were more affected. The numbers of species detected also declined. Moving nets daily to minimize the avoidance effect increased captures by 30% in birds and 70% in bats. However, moving the location of nets may cause a reduction in netting time and captures. When moving the nets caused the loss of one netting day it was no longer advantageous to move the nets frequently. In bird surveys that could even decrease the number of individuals captured and species detected. Net avoidance can greatly affect sampling efficiency but adjustments in survey design can minimize this. Whenever nets can be moved without losing netting time and the objective is to capture many individuals, they should be moved daily. If the main objective is to survey species present then nets should still be moved for bats, but not for birds. However, if relocating nets causes a significant loss of netting time, moving them to reduce effects of shyness will not improve sampling efficiency in either group. Overall, our findings can improve the design of mist netting sampling strategies in other tropical areas.Laboratory astrophysics : investigation of planetary and astrophysical maser emission
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4494
This paper describes a model for cyclotron maser emission applicable to planetary auroral radio emission, the stars UV Ceti and CU Virginus, blazar jets and astrophysical shocks. These emissions may be attributed to energetic electrons moving into convergent magnetic fields that are typically found in association with dipole like planetary magnetospheres or shocks. It is found that magnetic compression leads to the formation of a velocity distribution having a horseshoe shape as a result of conservation of the electron magnetic moment. Under certain plasma conditions where the local electron plasma frequency ωpe is much less than the cyclotron frequency ωce the distribution is found to be unstable to maser type radiation emission. We have established a laboratory-based facility that has verified many of the details of our original theoretical description and agrees well with numerical simulations. The experiment has demonstrated that the horseshoe distribution produces cyclotron emission at a frequency just below the local electron cyclotron frequency, with polarisation close to X-mode and propagating nearly perpendicularly to the electron beam motion. We discuss recent developments in the theory and simulation of the instability including addressing radiation escape problems, and relate these to the laboratory, space, and astrophysical observations. The experiments showed strong narrow band EM emissions at frequencies just below the cold-plasma cyclotron frequency as predicted by the theory. Measurements of the conversion efficiency, mode and spectral content were in close agreement with the predictions of numerical simulations undertaken using a particle-in-cell code and also with satellite observations confirming the horseshoe maser as an important emission mechanism in geophysical/astrophysical plasmas. In each case we address how the radiation can escape the plasma without suffering strong absorption at the second harmonic layer.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZSpeirs, DavidCairns, R AlanKellett, BarryVorgul, IrenaMcConville, SandraCross, AdrianPhelps, AlanRonald, KevinBingham, RobertThis paper describes a model for cyclotron maser emission applicable to planetary auroral radio emission, the stars UV Ceti and CU Virginus, blazar jets and astrophysical shocks. These emissions may be attributed to energetic electrons moving into convergent magnetic fields that are typically found in association with dipole like planetary magnetospheres or shocks. It is found that magnetic compression leads to the formation of a velocity distribution having a horseshoe shape as a result of conservation of the electron magnetic moment. Under certain plasma conditions where the local electron plasma frequency ωpe is much less than the cyclotron frequency ωce the distribution is found to be unstable to maser type radiation emission. We have established a laboratory-based facility that has verified many of the details of our original theoretical description and agrees well with numerical simulations. The experiment has demonstrated that the horseshoe distribution produces cyclotron emission at a frequency just below the local electron cyclotron frequency, with polarisation close to X-mode and propagating nearly perpendicularly to the electron beam motion. We discuss recent developments in the theory and simulation of the instability including addressing radiation escape problems, and relate these to the laboratory, space, and astrophysical observations. The experiments showed strong narrow band EM emissions at frequencies just below the cold-plasma cyclotron frequency as predicted by the theory. Measurements of the conversion efficiency, mode and spectral content were in close agreement with the predictions of numerical simulations undertaken using a particle-in-cell code and also with satellite observations confirming the horseshoe maser as an important emission mechanism in geophysical/astrophysical plasmas. In each case we address how the radiation can escape the plasma without suffering strong absorption at the second harmonic layer.Incomplete contingency tables with censored cells with application to estimating the number of people who inject drugs in Scotland
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4433
Estimating the size of hidden or difficult to reach populations is often of interest for economic, sociological or public health reasons. In order to estimate such populations, administrative data lists are often collated to form multi-list cross-counts and displayed in the form of an incomplete contingency table. Log-linear models are typically fitted to such data to obtain an estimate of the total population size by estimating the number of individuals not observed by any of the data-sources. This approach has been taken to estimate the current number of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland, with the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis database used as one of the data-sources to identify PWID. However, the HCV diagnosis data-source does not distinguish between current and former PWID, which, if ignored, will lead to over-estimation of the total population size of current PWID. We extend the standard model-fitting approach to allow for a data-source which contains a mixture of target and non-target individuals (i.e. in this case; current and former PWID). We apply the proposed approach to data for PWID in Scotland in 2003, 2006 and 2009 and compare to the results from standard log-linear models.
2014-04-30T00:00:00ZOverstall, AntonyKing, RuthBird, SheilaHutchinson, SharonHay, GordonEstimating the size of hidden or difficult to reach populations is often of interest for economic, sociological or public health reasons. In order to estimate such populations, administrative data lists are often collated to form multi-list cross-counts and displayed in the form of an incomplete contingency table. Log-linear models are typically fitted to such data to obtain an estimate of the total population size by estimating the number of individuals not observed by any of the data-sources. This approach has been taken to estimate the current number of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland, with the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis database used as one of the data-sources to identify PWID. However, the HCV diagnosis data-source does not distinguish between current and former PWID, which, if ignored, will lead to over-estimation of the total population size of current PWID. We extend the standard model-fitting approach to allow for a data-source which contains a mixture of target and non-target individuals (i.e. in this case; current and former PWID). We apply the proposed approach to data for PWID in Scotland in 2003, 2006 and 2009 and compare to the results from standard log-linear models.Magnetohydrodynamics dynamical relaxation of coronal magnetic fields : I. Parallel untwisted magnetic fields in 2D
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4378
Context. For the last thirty years, most of the studies on the relaxation of stressed magnetic fields in the solar environment have only considered the Lorentz force, neglecting plasma contributions, and therefore, limiting every equilibrium to that of a force-free field. Aims: Here we begin a study of the non-resistive evolution of finite beta plasmas and their relaxation to magnetohydrostatic states, where magnetic forces are balanced by plasma-pressure gradients, by using a simple 2D scenario involving a hydromagnetic disturbance to a uniform magnetic field. The final equilibrium state is predicted as a function of the initial disturbances, with aims to demonstrate what happens to the plasma during the relaxation process and to see what effects it has on the final equilibrium state. Methods: A set of numerical experiments are run using a full MHD code, with the relaxation driven by magnetoacoustic waves damped by viscous effects. The numerical results are compared with analytical calculations made within the linear regime, in which the whole process must remain adiabatic. Particular attention is paid to the thermodynamic behaviour of the plasma during the relaxation. Results: The analytical predictions for the final non force-free equilibrium depend only on the initial perturbations and the total pressure of the system. It is found that these predictions hold surprisingly well even for amplitudes of the perturbation far outside the linear regime. Conclusions: Including the effects of a finite plasma beta in relaxation experiments leads to significant differences from the force-free case.
2010-05-01T00:00:00ZFuentes Fernandez, JorgeParnell, Clare ElizabethHood, Alan WilliamContext. For the last thirty years, most of the studies on the relaxation of stressed magnetic fields in the solar environment have only considered the Lorentz force, neglecting plasma contributions, and therefore, limiting every equilibrium to that of a force-free field. Aims: Here we begin a study of the non-resistive evolution of finite beta plasmas and their relaxation to magnetohydrostatic states, where magnetic forces are balanced by plasma-pressure gradients, by using a simple 2D scenario involving a hydromagnetic disturbance to a uniform magnetic field. The final equilibrium state is predicted as a function of the initial disturbances, with aims to demonstrate what happens to the plasma during the relaxation process and to see what effects it has on the final equilibrium state. Methods: A set of numerical experiments are run using a full MHD code, with the relaxation driven by magnetoacoustic waves damped by viscous effects. The numerical results are compared with analytical calculations made within the linear regime, in which the whole process must remain adiabatic. Particular attention is paid to the thermodynamic behaviour of the plasma during the relaxation. Results: The analytical predictions for the final non force-free equilibrium depend only on the initial perturbations and the total pressure of the system. It is found that these predictions hold surprisingly well even for amplitudes of the perturbation far outside the linear regime. Conclusions: Including the effects of a finite plasma beta in relaxation experiments leads to significant differences from the force-free case.Flux emergence and coronal eruption
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4376
Aims. Our aim is to study the photospheric flux distribution of a twisted flux tube that emerges from the solar interior. We also report on the eruption of a new flux rope when the emerging tube rises into a pre-existing magnetic field in the corona. Methods. To study the evolution, we use 3D numerical simulations by solving the time-dependent and resistive MHD equations. We qualitatively compare our numerical results with MDI magnetograms of emerging flux at the solar surface. Results. We find that the photospheric magnetic flux distribution consists of two regions of opposite polarities and elongated magnetic tails on the two sides of the polarity inversion line (PIL), depending on the azimuthal nature of the emerging field lines and the initial field strength of the rising tube. Their shape is progressively deformed due to plasma motions towards the PIL. Our results are in qualitative agreement with observational studies of magnetic flux emergence in active regions (ARs). Moreover, if the initial twist of the emerging tube is small, the photospheric magnetic field develops an undulating shape and does not possess tails. In all cases, we find that a new flux rope is formed above the original axis of the emerging tube that may erupt into the corona, depending on the strength of the ambient field.
2010-05-01T00:00:00ZArchontis, VasilisHood, Alan WilliamAims. Our aim is to study the photospheric flux distribution of a twisted flux tube that emerges from the solar interior. We also report on the eruption of a new flux rope when the emerging tube rises into a pre-existing magnetic field in the corona. Methods. To study the evolution, we use 3D numerical simulations by solving the time-dependent and resistive MHD equations. We qualitatively compare our numerical results with MDI magnetograms of emerging flux at the solar surface. Results. We find that the photospheric magnetic flux distribution consists of two regions of opposite polarities and elongated magnetic tails on the two sides of the polarity inversion line (PIL), depending on the azimuthal nature of the emerging field lines and the initial field strength of the rising tube. Their shape is progressively deformed due to plasma motions towards the PIL. Our results are in qualitative agreement with observational studies of magnetic flux emergence in active regions (ARs). Moreover, if the initial twist of the emerging tube is small, the photospheric magnetic field develops an undulating shape and does not possess tails. In all cases, we find that a new flux rope is formed above the original axis of the emerging tube that may erupt into the corona, depending on the strength of the ambient field.Pelagic movements of pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) reveal the complex role of prey and ocean currents
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4356
Background: Leatherback turtles are renowned for their trans-oceanic migrations. However, despite numerous movement studies, the precise drivers of movement patterns in leatherbacks remain elusive. Many previous studies of leatherback turtles as well as other diving marine predators have analyzed surface movement patterns using only surface covariates. Since turtles and other marine predators spend the vast majority of their time diving under water, an analysis of movement patterns at depth should yield insight into what drives their movements. Results: We analyzed the movement paths of 15 post-nesting adult female Pacific leatherback turtles, which were caught and tagged on three nesting beaches in Mexico. The temporal length of the tracks ranged from 32 to 436 days, and the spatial distance covered ranged from 1,532 km to 13,097 km. We analyzed these tracks using a movement model designed to yield inference on the parameters driving movement. Because the telemetry data included diving depths, we extended an earlier version of the model that examined surface only movements, and here analyze movements in 3-dimensions. We tested the effect of dynamic environmental covariates from a coupled biophysical oceanographic model on patch choice in diving leatherback turtles, and compared the effects of parameters measured at the surface and at depth. The covariates included distance to future patch, temperature, salinity, meridional current velocity (current in the north–south direction), zonal current velocity (current in the east–west direction), phytoplankton density, diatom density, micro-plankton density, and meso-zooplankton density. We found significant, i.e. non-zero, correlation between movement and the parameters for oceanic covariates in 8 of the tracks. Of particular note, for one turtle we observed a lack of correlation between movements and a modeled index of zooplankton at the surface, but a significant correlation between movements and zooplankton at depth. Two of the turtles express a preference for patches at depth with elevated diatoms, and 2 turtles prefer patches with higher mezozooplankton values at depth. In contrast, 4 turtles expressed a preference for elevated zooplankton patches at the surface, but not at depth. We suggest that our understanding of a marine predator’s response to the environment may change significantly depending upon the analytical frame of reference, i.e. whether relationships are examined at the surface, at depth, or at different temporal resolutions. Lastly, we tested the effects of accounting for ocean currents on the movement patterns and found that for 13 of the 15 turtles, the parameter governing distance to the next patch decreased. Conclusions: Our results suggest that relationships derived from the analysis of surface tracks may not entirely explain movement patterns of this highly migratory species. Accounting for choices in the water column has shown that for certain individual turtles, what appears to be favourable habitat at depth is quantitatively different from that at the surface. This has implications for the analysis of the movements and diving behaviour of any top marine predator. The leatherback turtle is a deep diving reptile, and it is important to understand the subsurface variables that influence their movements if we are to precisely map the spatial dimensions of favorable leatherback habitat. These results present a new view into the drivers of diving patterns in turtles, and in particular represent a way of analyzing movements at depth that can be extended to other diving species.
APC paid through BIS OA funds.
2013-11-20T00:00:00ZSchick, Robert SchillingRoberts, JasonEckert, ScottClark, JamesBailey, HelenChai, FeiShi, LiHalpin, PatrickBackground: Leatherback turtles are renowned for their trans-oceanic migrations. However, despite numerous movement studies, the precise drivers of movement patterns in leatherbacks remain elusive. Many previous studies of leatherback turtles as well as other diving marine predators have analyzed surface movement patterns using only surface covariates. Since turtles and other marine predators spend the vast majority of their time diving under water, an analysis of movement patterns at depth should yield insight into what drives their movements. Results: We analyzed the movement paths of 15 post-nesting adult female Pacific leatherback turtles, which were caught and tagged on three nesting beaches in Mexico. The temporal length of the tracks ranged from 32 to 436 days, and the spatial distance covered ranged from 1,532 km to 13,097 km. We analyzed these tracks using a movement model designed to yield inference on the parameters driving movement. Because the telemetry data included diving depths, we extended an earlier version of the model that examined surface only movements, and here analyze movements in 3-dimensions. We tested the effect of dynamic environmental covariates from a coupled biophysical oceanographic model on patch choice in diving leatherback turtles, and compared the effects of parameters measured at the surface and at depth. The covariates included distance to future patch, temperature, salinity, meridional current velocity (current in the north–south direction), zonal current velocity (current in the east–west direction), phytoplankton density, diatom density, micro-plankton density, and meso-zooplankton density. We found significant, i.e. non-zero, correlation between movement and the parameters for oceanic covariates in 8 of the tracks. Of particular note, for one turtle we observed a lack of correlation between movements and a modeled index of zooplankton at the surface, but a significant correlation between movements and zooplankton at depth. Two of the turtles express a preference for patches at depth with elevated diatoms, and 2 turtles prefer patches with higher mezozooplankton values at depth. In contrast, 4 turtles expressed a preference for elevated zooplankton patches at the surface, but not at depth. We suggest that our understanding of a marine predator’s response to the environment may change significantly depending upon the analytical frame of reference, i.e. whether relationships are examined at the surface, at depth, or at different temporal resolutions. Lastly, we tested the effects of accounting for ocean currents on the movement patterns and found that for 13 of the 15 turtles, the parameter governing distance to the next patch decreased. Conclusions: Our results suggest that relationships derived from the analysis of surface tracks may not entirely explain movement patterns of this highly migratory species. Accounting for choices in the water column has shown that for certain individual turtles, what appears to be favourable habitat at depth is quantitatively different from that at the surface. This has implications for the analysis of the movements and diving behaviour of any top marine predator. The leatherback turtle is a deep diving reptile, and it is important to understand the subsurface variables that influence their movements if we are to precisely map the spatial dimensions of favorable leatherback habitat. These results present a new view into the drivers of diving patterns in turtles, and in particular represent a way of analyzing movements at depth that can be extended to other diving species.Energy dissipation and resolution of steep gradients in one-dimensional Burgers flows
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4333
Traveling-wave solutions of the inviscid Burgers equation having smooth initial wave profiles of suitable shapes are known to develop shocks (infinite gradients) in finite times. Such singular solutions are characterized by energy spectra that scale with the wave number k as k−2. In the presence of viscosity ν>0, no shocks can develop, and smooth solutions remain so for all times t>0, eventually decaying to zero as t→∞. At peak energy dissipation, say t = t∗, the spectrum of such a smooth solution extends to a finite dissipation wave number kν and falls off more rapidly, presumably exponentially, for k>kν. The number N of Fourier modes within the so-called inertial range is proportional to kν. This represents the number of modes necessary to resolve the dissipation scale and can be thought of as the system’s number of degrees of freedom. The peak energy dissipation rate ϵ remains positive and becomes independent of ν in the inviscid limit. In this study, we carry out an analysis which verifies the dynamical features described above and derive upper bounds for ϵ and N. It is found that ϵ satisfies ϵ ≤ ν2α−1‖u∗‖∞2(1−α)‖(−Δ)α/2u∗‖2, where α<1 and u∗ = u(x,t∗) is the velocity field at t = t∗. Given ϵ>0 in the limit ν→0, this implies that the energy spectrum remains no steeper than k−2 in that limit. For the critical k−2 scaling, the bound for ϵ reduces to ϵ ≤ k0‖u0‖∞‖u0‖2, where k0 marks the lower end of the inertial range and u0 = u(x,0). This implies N ≤ L‖u0‖∞/ν, where L is the domain size, which is shown to coincide with a rigorous estimate for the number of degrees of freedom defined in terms of local Lyapunov exponents. We demonstrate both analytically and numerically an instance, where the k−2 scaling is uniquely realizable. The numerics also return ϵ and t∗, consistent with analytic values derived from the corresponding limiting weak solution.
2010-03-01T00:00:00ZTran, Chuong VanDritschel, David GerardTraveling-wave solutions of the inviscid Burgers equation having smooth initial wave profiles of suitable shapes are known to develop shocks (infinite gradients) in finite times. Such singular solutions are characterized by energy spectra that scale with the wave number k as k−2. In the presence of viscosity ν>0, no shocks can develop, and smooth solutions remain so for all times t>0, eventually decaying to zero as t→∞. At peak energy dissipation, say t = t∗, the spectrum of such a smooth solution extends to a finite dissipation wave number kν and falls off more rapidly, presumably exponentially, for k>kν. The number N of Fourier modes within the so-called inertial range is proportional to kν. This represents the number of modes necessary to resolve the dissipation scale and can be thought of as the system’s number of degrees of freedom. The peak energy dissipation rate ϵ remains positive and becomes independent of ν in the inviscid limit. In this study, we carry out an analysis which verifies the dynamical features described above and derive upper bounds for ϵ and N. It is found that ϵ satisfies ϵ ≤ ν2α−1‖u∗‖∞2(1−α)‖(−Δ)α/2u∗‖2, where α<1 and u∗ = u(x,t∗) is the velocity field at t = t∗. Given ϵ>0 in the limit ν→0, this implies that the energy spectrum remains no steeper than k−2 in that limit. For the critical k−2 scaling, the bound for ϵ reduces to ϵ ≤ k0‖u0‖∞‖u0‖2, where k0 marks the lower end of the inertial range and u0 = u(x,0). This implies N ≤ L‖u0‖∞/ν, where L is the domain size, which is shown to coincide with a rigorous estimate for the number of degrees of freedom defined in terms of local Lyapunov exponents. We demonstrate both analytically and numerically an instance, where the k−2 scaling is uniquely realizable. The numerics also return ϵ and t∗, consistent with analytic values derived from the corresponding limiting weak solution.Maximum likelihood estimation of mark-recapture-recovery models in the presence of continuous covariates
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4073
We consider mark-recapture-recovery (MRR) data of animals where the model parameters are a function of individual time-varying continuous covariates. For such covariates, the covariate value is unobserved if the corresponding individual is unobserved, in which case the survival probability cannot be evaluated. For continuous-valued covariates, the corresponding likelihood can only be expressed in the form of an integral that is analytically intractable, and, to date, no maximum likelihood approach that uses all the information in the data has been developed. Assuming a first-order Markov process for the covariate values, we accomplish this task by formulating the MRR setting in a state-space framework and considering an approximate likelihood approach which essentially discretizes the range of covariate values, reducing the integral to a summation. The likelihood can then be efficiently calculated and maximized using standard techniques for hidden Markov models. We initially assess the approach using simulated data before applying to real data relating to Soay sheep, specifying the survival probability as a function of body mass. Models that have previously been suggested for the corresponding covariate process are typically of the form of di.usive random walks. We consider an alternative non-di.usive AR(1)-type model which appears to provide a significantly better fit to the Soay sheep data.
Supplementary material: R code for model fitting. Sample R code for simulating MRR data and fitting the corresponding model using the HMM-based approach (with MRR model as described in Section 3). Digital Object Identifier: doi:10.1214/13-AOAS644SUPP
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZLangrock, RolandKing, RuthWe consider mark-recapture-recovery (MRR) data of animals where the model parameters are a function of individual time-varying continuous covariates. For such covariates, the covariate value is unobserved if the corresponding individual is unobserved, in which case the survival probability cannot be evaluated. For continuous-valued covariates, the corresponding likelihood can only be expressed in the form of an integral that is analytically intractable, and, to date, no maximum likelihood approach that uses all the information in the data has been developed. Assuming a first-order Markov process for the covariate values, we accomplish this task by formulating the MRR setting in a state-space framework and considering an approximate likelihood approach which essentially discretizes the range of covariate values, reducing the integral to a summation. The likelihood can then be efficiently calculated and maximized using standard techniques for hidden Markov models. We initially assess the approach using simulated data before applying to real data relating to Soay sheep, specifying the survival probability as a function of body mass. Models that have previously been suggested for the corresponding covariate process are typically of the form of di.usive random walks. We consider an alternative non-di.usive AR(1)-type model which appears to provide a significantly better fit to the Soay sheep data.Prioritizing global marine mammal habitats using density maps in place of range maps
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4068
Despite lessons from terrestrial systems, conservation efforts in marine systems continue to focus on identifying priority sites for protection based on high species richness inferred from range maps. Range maps oversimplify spatial variability in animal distributions by assuming uniform distribution within range and de facto giving equal weight to critical and marginal habitats. We used Marxan ver. 2.43 to compare species richness-based systematic reserve network solutions using information about marine mammal range and relative abundance. At a global scale, reserve network solutions were strongly sensitive to model inputs and assumptions. Solutions based on different input data overlapped by a third at most, with agreement as low as 10% in some cases. At a regional scale, species richness was inversely related to density, such that species richness hotspots excluded highest-density areas for all species. Based on these findings, we caution that species-richness estimates derived from range maps and used as input in conservation planning exercises may inadvertently lead to protection of largely marginal habitat.
RW was supported by a Marie Curie International Incoming Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme FP7-PEOPLE-2009-IIF
2014-03-01T00:00:00ZWilliams, RobertGrand, JoannaHooker, Sascha KateBuckland, Stephen TerrenceReeves, Randall R.Rojas-Bracho, LorenzoSandilands, DougKaschner, KristinDespite lessons from terrestrial systems, conservation efforts in marine systems continue to focus on identifying priority sites for protection based on high species richness inferred from range maps. Range maps oversimplify spatial variability in animal distributions by assuming uniform distribution within range and de facto giving equal weight to critical and marginal habitats. We used Marxan ver. 2.43 to compare species richness-based systematic reserve network solutions using information about marine mammal range and relative abundance. At a global scale, reserve network solutions were strongly sensitive to model inputs and assumptions. Solutions based on different input data overlapped by a third at most, with agreement as low as 10% in some cases. At a regional scale, species richness was inversely related to density, such that species richness hotspots excluded highest-density areas for all species. Based on these findings, we caution that species-richness estimates derived from range maps and used as input in conservation planning exercises may inadvertently lead to protection of largely marginal habitat.Spatial models for distance sampling data : recent developments and future directions
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4046
Our understanding of a biological population can be greatly enhanced by modelling their distribution in space and as a function of environmental covariates. Density surface models consist of a spatial model of the abundance of a biological population which has been corrected for uncertain detection via distance sampling methods. We offer a comparison of recent advances in the field and consider the likely directions of future research. In particular we consider spatial modelling techniques that may be advantageous to applied ecologists such as quantification of uncertainty in a two-stage model and smoothing in areas with complex boundaries. The methods discussed are available in an \textsf{R} package developed by the authors and are largely implemented in the popular Windows package Distance (or are soon to be incorporated). Density surface modelling enables applied ecologists to reliably estimate abundances and create maps of animal/plant distribution. Such models can also be used to investigate the relationships between distribution and environmental covariates.
2013-11-01T00:00:00ZMiller, David LawrenceBurt, M LouiseRexstad, EricThomas, LenOur understanding of a biological population can be greatly enhanced by modelling their distribution in space and as a function of environmental covariates. Density surface models consist of a spatial model of the abundance of a biological population which has been corrected for uncertain detection via distance sampling methods. We offer a comparison of recent advances in the field and consider the likely directions of future research. In particular we consider spatial modelling techniques that may be advantageous to applied ecologists such as quantification of uncertainty in a two-stage model and smoothing in areas with complex boundaries. The methods discussed are available in an \textsf{R} package developed by the authors and are largely implemented in the popular Windows package Distance (or are soon to be incorporated). Density surface modelling enables applied ecologists to reliably estimate abundances and create maps of animal/plant distribution. Such models can also be used to investigate the relationships between distribution and environmental covariates.A default prior distribution for contingency tables with dependent factor levels
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/4042
A default prior distribution is proposed for the Bayesian analysis of contingency tables. The prior is specified to allow for dependence between levels of the factors. Different dependence structures are considered, including conditional autoregressive and distance correlation structures. To demonstrate the prior distribution, a dataset is considered involving estimating the number of injecting drug users in the eleven National Health Service board regions of Scotland using an incomplete contingency table where the dependence structure relates to geographical regions.
Both authors were partly funded by MRC-funded addictions cluster, NIQUAD (Grant No. G1000021).
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZOverstall, AntonyKing, RuthA default prior distribution is proposed for the Bayesian analysis of contingency tables. The prior is specified to allow for dependence between levels of the factors. Different dependence structures are considered, including conditional autoregressive and distance correlation structures. To demonstrate the prior distribution, a dataset is considered involving estimating the number of injecting drug users in the eleven National Health Service board regions of Scotland using an incomplete contingency table where the dependence structure relates to geographical regions.Combining individual animal movement and ancillary biotelemetry data to investigate population-level activity budgets
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3993
Recent technological advances have permitted the collection of detailed animal location and ancillary biotelemetry data that facilitate inference about animal movement and associated behaviors. However, these rich sources of individual information, location, and biotelemetry data, are typically analyzed independently, with population-level inferences remaining largely post hoc. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach, which is able to integrate location and ancillary biotelemetry (e.g., physiological or accelerometer) data from many individuals. We can thus obtain robust estimates of (1) population-level movement parameters and (2) activity budgets for a set of behaviors among which animals transition as they respond to changes in their internal and external environment. Measurement error and missing data are easily accommodated using a state-space formulation of the proposed hierarchical model. Using Bayesian analysis methods, we demonstrate our modeling approach with location and dive activity data from 17 harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the United Kingdom. Based jointly on movement and diving activity, we identified three distinct movement behavior states: resting, foraging, and transit, and estimated population-level activity budgets to these three states. Because harbor seals are known to dive for both foraging and transit (but not usually for resting), we compared these results to a similar population level analysis utilizing only location data. We found that a large proportion of time steps were mischaracterized when behavior states were inferred from horizontal trajectory alone, with 33% of time steps exhibiting a majority of dive activity assigned to the resting state. Only 1% of these time steps were assigned to resting when inferred from both trajectory and dive activity data using our integrated modeling approach. There is mounting evidence of the potential perils of inferring animal behavior based on trajectory alone, but there fortunately now exist many flexible analytical techniques for extracting more out of the increasing wealth of information afforded by recent advances in biologging technology.
2013-04-01T00:00:00ZMcClintock, Brett ThomasRussell, Deborah Jill FraserMatthiopoulos, JasonKing, RuthRecent technological advances have permitted the collection of detailed animal location and ancillary biotelemetry data that facilitate inference about animal movement and associated behaviors. However, these rich sources of individual information, location, and biotelemetry data, are typically analyzed independently, with population-level inferences remaining largely post hoc. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach, which is able to integrate location and ancillary biotelemetry (e.g., physiological or accelerometer) data from many individuals. We can thus obtain robust estimates of (1) population-level movement parameters and (2) activity budgets for a set of behaviors among which animals transition as they respond to changes in their internal and external environment. Measurement error and missing data are easily accommodated using a state-space formulation of the proposed hierarchical model. Using Bayesian analysis methods, we demonstrate our modeling approach with location and dive activity data from 17 harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in the United Kingdom. Based jointly on movement and diving activity, we identified three distinct movement behavior states: resting, foraging, and transit, and estimated population-level activity budgets to these three states. Because harbor seals are known to dive for both foraging and transit (but not usually for resting), we compared these results to a similar population level analysis utilizing only location data. We found that a large proportion of time steps were mischaracterized when behavior states were inferred from horizontal trajectory alone, with 33% of time steps exhibiting a majority of dive activity assigned to the resting state. Only 1% of these time steps were assigned to resting when inferred from both trajectory and dive activity data using our integrated modeling approach. There is mounting evidence of the potential perils of inferring animal behavior based on trajectory alone, but there fortunately now exist many flexible analytical techniques for extracting more out of the increasing wealth of information afforded by recent advances in biologging technology.Population status of Pan troglodytes verus in Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park, Guinea-Bissau
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3974
The western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, has been classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List since 1988. Intensive agriculture, commercial plantations, logging, and mining have eliminated or degraded the habitats suitable for P. t. verus over a large part of its range. In this study we assessed the effect of land-use change on the population size and density of chimpanzees at Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park (LCNP), Guinea-Bissau. We further explored chimpanzee distribution in relation to landscape-level proxies of human disturbance. Nest count and distance-sampling methods were employed along 11 systematically placed linear transects in 2010 and 2011. Estimated nest decay rate was 293.9 days (%CV = 58.8). Based on this estimate of decay time and using the Standing-Crop Nest Count Method, we obtained a habitat-weighted average chimpanzee density estimate for 2011 of 0.22 nest building chimpanzees/km2 (95% CI 0.08–0.62), corresponding to 137 (95% CI 51.0–390.0) chimpanzees for LCNP. Human disturbance had a negative influence on chimpanzee distribution as nests were built farther away from human settlements, roads, and rivers than if they were randomly distributed, coinciding with the distribution of the remaining patches of dense canopy forest. We conclude that the continuous disappearance of suitable habitat (e.g. the replacement of LCNP's dense forests by monocultures of cashew plantations) may be compromising the future of one of the most threatened Guinean coastal chimpanzee populations. We discuss strategies to ensure long-term conservation in this important refuge for this chimpanzee subspecies at its westernmost margin of geographic distribution.
2013-08-01T00:00:00ZCarvalho, Joana S.Marques, Tiago A.Vicente, LuisThe western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, has been classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List since 1988. Intensive agriculture, commercial plantations, logging, and mining have eliminated or degraded the habitats suitable for P. t. verus over a large part of its range. In this study we assessed the effect of land-use change on the population size and density of chimpanzees at Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park (LCNP), Guinea-Bissau. We further explored chimpanzee distribution in relation to landscape-level proxies of human disturbance. Nest count and distance-sampling methods were employed along 11 systematically placed linear transects in 2010 and 2011. Estimated nest decay rate was 293.9 days (%CV = 58.8). Based on this estimate of decay time and using the Standing-Crop Nest Count Method, we obtained a habitat-weighted average chimpanzee density estimate for 2011 of 0.22 nest building chimpanzees/km2 (95% CI 0.08–0.62), corresponding to 137 (95% CI 51.0–390.0) chimpanzees for LCNP. Human disturbance had a negative influence on chimpanzee distribution as nests were built farther away from human settlements, roads, and rivers than if they were randomly distributed, coinciding with the distribution of the remaining patches of dense canopy forest. We conclude that the continuous disappearance of suitable habitat (e.g. the replacement of LCNP's dense forests by monocultures of cashew plantations) may be compromising the future of one of the most threatened Guinean coastal chimpanzee populations. We discuss strategies to ensure long-term conservation in this important refuge for this chimpanzee subspecies at its westernmost margin of geographic distribution.A generalised likelihood framework for partially observed capture-recapture-recovery models
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3877
We provide a closed form likelihood expression for multi-state mark-recapture-recovery data when the state of an individual may be only partially observed. The corresponding su cient statistics are presented in addition to a matrix formulation which facilitates an e cient calculation of the likelihood. This likelihood framework provides a consistent and uni ed framework with many standard models applied to mark-recapture-recovery data as special cases.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZKing, RuthMcCrea, R SWe provide a closed form likelihood expression for multi-state mark-recapture-recovery data when the state of an individual may be only partially observed. The corresponding su cient statistics are presented in addition to a matrix formulation which facilitates an e cient calculation of the likelihood. This likelihood framework provides a consistent and uni ed framework with many standard models applied to mark-recapture-recovery data as special cases.Estimating resource acquisition and at-sea body condition of a marine predator
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3867
(1) Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interaction with the environment provides necessary information about how animals acquire resources. (2) However, comparatively little is known about intra- and interindividual variation of condition in marine systems. Where condition has been studied, changes typically are recorded at relatively coarse time-scales. By quantifying how fine-scale interaction with the environment influences condition, we can broaden our understanding of how animals acquire resources and allocate them to body stores. (3) Here we used a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to estimate the body condition as measured by the size of an animal's lipid store in two closely related species of marine predator that occupy different hemispheres: northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). The observation model linked drift dives to lipid stores. The process model quantified daily changes in lipid stores as a function of the physiological condition of the seal (lipid:lean tissue ratio, departure lipid and departure mass), its foraging location, two measures of behaviour and environmental covariates. (4) We found that physiological condition significantly impacted lipid gain at two time-scales – daily and at departure from the colony – that foraging location was significantly associated with lipid gain in both species of elephant seals and that long-term behavioural phase was associated with positive lipid gain in northern and southern elephant seals. In northern elephant seals, the occurrence of short-term behavioural states assumed to represent foraging were correlated with lipid gain. Lipid gain was a function of covariates in both species. Southern elephant seals performed fewer drift dives than northern elephant seals and gained lipids at a lower rate. (5) We have demonstrated a new way to obtain time series of body condition estimates for a marine predator at fine spatial and temporal scales. This modelling approach accounts for uncertainty at many levels and has the potential to integrate physiological and movement ecology of top predators. The observation model we used was specific to elephant seals, but the process model can readily be applied to other species, providing an opportunity to understand how animals respond to their environment at a fine spatial scale.
This article was made open access through BIS OA funding.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZSchick, Robert SchillingNew, LeslieThomas, LenCosta, DanielHindell, MarkMcMahon, CliveRobinson, PatrickSimmons, SamanthaThums, MicheleHarwood, JohnClark, James(1) Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interaction with the environment provides necessary information about how animals acquire resources. (2) However, comparatively little is known about intra- and interindividual variation of condition in marine systems. Where condition has been studied, changes typically are recorded at relatively coarse time-scales. By quantifying how fine-scale interaction with the environment influences condition, we can broaden our understanding of how animals acquire resources and allocate them to body stores. (3) Here we used a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to estimate the body condition as measured by the size of an animal's lipid store in two closely related species of marine predator that occupy different hemispheres: northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). The observation model linked drift dives to lipid stores. The process model quantified daily changes in lipid stores as a function of the physiological condition of the seal (lipid:lean tissue ratio, departure lipid and departure mass), its foraging location, two measures of behaviour and environmental covariates. (4) We found that physiological condition significantly impacted lipid gain at two time-scales – daily and at departure from the colony – that foraging location was significantly associated with lipid gain in both species of elephant seals and that long-term behavioural phase was associated with positive lipid gain in northern and southern elephant seals. In northern elephant seals, the occurrence of short-term behavioural states assumed to represent foraging were correlated with lipid gain. Lipid gain was a function of covariates in both species. Southern elephant seals performed fewer drift dives than northern elephant seals and gained lipids at a lower rate. (5) We have demonstrated a new way to obtain time series of body condition estimates for a marine predator at fine spatial and temporal scales. This modelling approach accounts for uncertainty at many levels and has the potential to integrate physiological and movement ecology of top predators. The observation model we used was specific to elephant seals, but the process model can readily be applied to other species, providing an opportunity to understand how animals respond to their environment at a fine spatial scale.Using hierarchical bayes to understand movement, health, and survival in the endangered North Atlantic right whale
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3860
Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems – terrestrial and marine – where sporadic observations of individuals exist.
This article was made open access through BIS OA funding.
2013-06-01T00:00:00ZSchick, Robert SchillingKraus, Scott D.Rolland, Rosalind M.Knowlton, Amy R.Hamilton, Philip K.Pettis, Heather M.Kenney, Robert D.Clark, James S.Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems – terrestrial and marine – where sporadic observations of individuals exist.Cetacean abundance and distribution in European Atlantic shelf waters to inform conservation and management
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3859
The European Union (EU) Habitats Directive requires Member States to monitor and maintain at favourable conservation status those species identified to be in need of protection, including all cetaceans. In July 2005 we surveyed the entire EU Atlantic continental shelf to generate robust estimates of abundance for harbour porpoise and other cetacean species. The survey used line transect sampling methods and purpose built data collection equipment designed to minimise bias in estimates of abundance. Shipboard transects covered 19,725 km in sea conditions ⩽Beaufort 4 in an area of 1,005,743 km2. Aerial transects covered 15,802 km in good/moderate conditions (⩽Beaufort 3) in an area of 364,371 km2. Thirteen cetacean species were recorded; abundance was estimated for harbour porpoise (375,358; CV = 0.197), bottlenose dolphin (16,485; CV = 0.422), white-beaked dolphin (16,536; CV = 0.303), short-beaked common dolphin (56,221; CV = 0.234) and minke whale (18,958; CV = 0.347). Abundance in 2005 was similar to that estimated in July 1994 for harbour porpoise, white-beaked dolphin and minke whale in a comparable area. However, model-based density surfaces showed a marked difference in harbour porpoise distribution between 1994 and 2005. Our results allow EU Member States to discharge their responsibilities under the Habitats Directive and inform other international organisations concerning the assessment of conservation status of cetaceans and the impact of bycatch at a large spatial scale. The lack of evidence for a change in harbour porpoise abundance in EU waters as a whole does not exclude the possibility of an impact of bycatch in some areas. Monitoring bycatch and estimation of abundance continue to be essential.
This article was made open access through BIS OA funding.
2013-08-01T00:00:00ZHammond, Philip StevenMacleod, KellyBerggren, PerBorchers, David LouisBurt, M LouiseCañadas, AnaDesportes, GenevieveDonovan, Greg PGilles, AnitaGillespie, Douglas MichaelGordon, Jonathan Charles DavidHiby, LexKuklik, IwonaLeaper, RussellLehnert, KristinaLeopold, MardikLovell, PhilipØien, NilsPaxton, Charles G. M.Ridoux, VincentRogan, EmerSamarra, Filipa Isabel PereiraScheidat, MeikeSequeira, MarinaSiebert, UrsulaSkov, HenrikSwift, Rene JamesTasker, MarkTeilmann, JonasVan Canneyt, OlivierVázquez, José AntonioThe European Union (EU) Habitats Directive requires Member States to monitor and maintain at favourable conservation status those species identified to be in need of protection, including all cetaceans. In July 2005 we surveyed the entire EU Atlantic continental shelf to generate robust estimates of abundance for harbour porpoise and other cetacean species. The survey used line transect sampling methods and purpose built data collection equipment designed to minimise bias in estimates of abundance. Shipboard transects covered 19,725 km in sea conditions ⩽Beaufort 4 in an area of 1,005,743 km2. Aerial transects covered 15,802 km in good/moderate conditions (⩽Beaufort 3) in an area of 364,371 km2. Thirteen cetacean species were recorded; abundance was estimated for harbour porpoise (375,358; CV = 0.197), bottlenose dolphin (16,485; CV = 0.422), white-beaked dolphin (16,536; CV = 0.303), short-beaked common dolphin (56,221; CV = 0.234) and minke whale (18,958; CV = 0.347). Abundance in 2005 was similar to that estimated in July 1994 for harbour porpoise, white-beaked dolphin and minke whale in a comparable area. However, model-based density surfaces showed a marked difference in harbour porpoise distribution between 1994 and 2005. Our results allow EU Member States to discharge their responsibilities under the Habitats Directive and inform other international organisations concerning the assessment of conservation status of cetaceans and the impact of bycatch at a large spatial scale. The lack of evidence for a change in harbour porpoise abundance in EU waters as a whole does not exclude the possibility of an impact of bycatch in some areas. Monitoring bycatch and estimation of abundance continue to be essential.Magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the ejection of a magnetic flux rope
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3855
Context. Coronal mass ejections (CME’s) are one of the most violent phenomena found on the Sun. One model to explain their occurrence is the flux rope ejection model. In this model, magnetic flux ropes form slowly over time periods of days to weeks. They then lose equilibrium and are ejected from the solar corona over a few hours. The contrasting time scales of formation and ejection pose a serious problem for numerical simulations. Aims. We simulate the whole life span of a flux rope from slow formation to rapid ejection and investigate whether magnetic flux ropes formed from a continuous magnetic field distribution, during a quasi-static evolution, can erupt to produce a CME. Methods. To model the full life span of magnetic flux ropes we couple two models. The global non-linear force-free field (GNLFFF) evolution model is used to follow the quasi-static formation of a flux rope. The MHD code ARMVAC is used to simulate the production of a CME through the loss of equilibrium and ejection of this flux rope. Results. We show that the two distinct models may be successfully coupled and that the flux rope is ejected out of our simulation box, where the outer boundary is placed at 2.5 R⊙. The plasma expelled during the flux rope ejection travels outward at a speed of 100 km s-1, which is consistent with the observed speed of CMEs in the low corona. Conclusions. Our work shows that flux ropes formed in the GNLFFF can lead to the ejection of a mass loaded magnetic flux rope in full MHD simulations. Coupling the two distinct models opens up a new avenue of research to investigate phenomena where different phases of their evolution occur on drastically different time scales.
2013-06-01T00:00:00ZPagano, PaoloMackay, Duncan HendryPoedts, StefaanContext. Coronal mass ejections (CME’s) are one of the most violent phenomena found on the Sun. One model to explain their occurrence is the flux rope ejection model. In this model, magnetic flux ropes form slowly over time periods of days to weeks. They then lose equilibrium and are ejected from the solar corona over a few hours. The contrasting time scales of formation and ejection pose a serious problem for numerical simulations. Aims. We simulate the whole life span of a flux rope from slow formation to rapid ejection and investigate whether magnetic flux ropes formed from a continuous magnetic field distribution, during a quasi-static evolution, can erupt to produce a CME. Methods. To model the full life span of magnetic flux ropes we couple two models. The global non-linear force-free field (GNLFFF) evolution model is used to follow the quasi-static formation of a flux rope. The MHD code ARMVAC is used to simulate the production of a CME through the loss of equilibrium and ejection of this flux rope. Results. We show that the two distinct models may be successfully coupled and that the flux rope is ejected out of our simulation box, where the outer boundary is placed at 2.5 R⊙. The plasma expelled during the flux rope ejection travels outward at a speed of 100 km s-1, which is consistent with the observed speed of CMEs in the low corona. Conclusions. Our work shows that flux ropes formed in the GNLFFF can lead to the ejection of a mass loaded magnetic flux rope in full MHD simulations. Coupling the two distinct models opens up a new avenue of research to investigate phenomena where different phases of their evolution occur on drastically different time scales.Blue whales respond to simulated mid-frequency military sonar
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3837
Mid-frequency military (1–10 kHz) sonars have been associated with lethal mass strandings of deep-diving toothed whales, but the effects on endangered baleen whale species are virtually unknown. Here, we used controlled exposure experiments with simulated military sonar and other mid-frequency sounds to measure behavioural responses of tagged blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) in feeding areas within the Southern California Bight. Despite using source levels orders of magnitude below some operational military systems, our results demonstrate that mid-frequency sound can significantly affect blue whale behaviour, especially during deep feeding modes. When a response occurred, behavioural changes varied widely from cessation of deep feeding to increased swimming speed and directed travel away from the sound source. The variability of these behavioural responses was largely influenced by a complex interaction of behavioural state, the type of mid-frequency sound and received sound level. Sonar-induced disruption of feeding and displacement from high-quality prey patches could have significant and previously undocumented impacts on baleen whale foraging ecology, individual fitness and population health.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZGoldbogen, Jeremy A.Southall, Brandon L.De Ruiter, Stacy LynnCalambokidis, JohnFriedlaender, Ari S.Hazen, Elliott L.Falcone, Erin A.Schorr, Gregory S.Douglas, AnnieMoretti, David J.Kyburg, ChrisMcKenna, Megan F.Tyack, Peter LloydMid-frequency military (1–10 kHz) sonars have been associated with lethal mass strandings of deep-diving toothed whales, but the effects on endangered baleen whale species are virtually unknown. Here, we used controlled exposure experiments with simulated military sonar and other mid-frequency sounds to measure behavioural responses of tagged blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) in feeding areas within the Southern California Bight. Despite using source levels orders of magnitude below some operational military systems, our results demonstrate that mid-frequency sound can significantly affect blue whale behaviour, especially during deep feeding modes. When a response occurred, behavioural changes varied widely from cessation of deep feeding to increased swimming speed and directed travel away from the sound source. The variability of these behavioural responses was largely influenced by a complex interaction of behavioural state, the type of mid-frequency sound and received sound level. Sonar-induced disruption of feeding and displacement from high-quality prey patches could have significant and previously undocumented impacts on baleen whale foraging ecology, individual fitness and population health.First direct measurements of behavioural responses by Cuvier's beaked whales to mid-frequency active sonar
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3836
Most marine mammal strandings coincident with naval sonar exercises have involved Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris). We recorded animal movement and acoustic data on two tagged Ziphius and obtained the first direct measurements of behavioural responses of this species to mid-frequency active (MFA) sonar signals. Each recording included a 30-min playback (one 1.6-s simulated MFA sonar signal repeated every 25 s); one whale was also incidentally exposed to MFA sonar from distant naval exercises. Whales responded strongly to playbacks at low received levels (RLs; 89–127 dB re 1 µPa): after ceasing normal fluking and echolocation, they swam rapidly, silently away, extending both dive duration and subsequent non-foraging interval. Distant sonar exercises (78–106 dB re 1 µPa) did not elicit such responses, suggesting that context may moderate reactions. The observed responses to playback occurred at RLs well below current regulatory thresholds; equivalent responses to operational sonars could elevate stranding risk and reduce foraging efficiency.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZDe Ruiter, Stacy LynnSouthall, Brandon L.Calambokidis, JohnZimmer, Walter M. X.Sadykova, DinaraFalcone, Erin A.Friedlaender, Ari S.Joseph, John E.Moretti, DavidSchorr, Gregory S.Thomas, LenTyack, Peter LloydMost marine mammal strandings coincident with naval sonar exercises have involved Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris). We recorded animal movement and acoustic data on two tagged Ziphius and obtained the first direct measurements of behavioural responses of this species to mid-frequency active (MFA) sonar signals. Each recording included a 30-min playback (one 1.6-s simulated MFA sonar signal repeated every 25 s); one whale was also incidentally exposed to MFA sonar from distant naval exercises. Whales responded strongly to playbacks at low received levels (RLs; 89–127 dB re 1 µPa): after ceasing normal fluking and echolocation, they swam rapidly, silently away, extending both dive duration and subsequent non-foraging interval. Distant sonar exercises (78–106 dB re 1 µPa) did not elicit such responses, suggesting that context may moderate reactions. The observed responses to playback occurred at RLs well below current regulatory thresholds; equivalent responses to operational sonars could elevate stranding risk and reduce foraging efficiency.Minimal and random generation of permutation and matrix groups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3823
We prove explicit bounds on the numbers of elements needed to generate various types of finite permutation groups and finite completely reducible matrix groups, and present examples to show that they are sharp in all cases. The bounds are linear in the degree of the permutation or matrix group in general, and logarithmic when the group is primitive. They can be combined with results of Lubotzky to produce explicit bounds on the number of random elements required to generate these groups with a specified probability. These results have important applications to computational group theory. Our proofs are inductive and largely theoretical, but we use computer calculations to establish the bounds in a number of specific small cases.
2013-08-01T00:00:00ZHolt, DerekRoney-Dougal, Colva MaryWe prove explicit bounds on the numbers of elements needed to generate various types of finite permutation groups and finite completely reducible matrix groups, and present examples to show that they are sharp in all cases. The bounds are linear in the degree of the permutation or matrix group in general, and logarithmic when the group is primitive. They can be combined with results of Lubotzky to produce explicit bounds on the number of random elements required to generate these groups with a specified probability. These results have important applications to computational group theory. Our proofs are inductive and largely theoretical, but we use computer calculations to establish the bounds in a number of specific small cases.Estimating animal population density using passive acoustics
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3496
Reliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds, amphibians, and insects, especially in situations where inferences are required over long periods of time. There is considerable work ahead, with several potentially fruitful research areas, including the development of (i) hardware and software for data acquisition, (ii) efficient, calibrated, automated detection and classification systems, and (iii) statistical approaches optimized for this application. Further, survey design will need to be developed, and research is needed on the acoustic behaviour of target species. Fundamental research on vocalization rates and group sizes, and the relation between these and other factors such as season or behaviour state, is critical. Evaluation of the methods under known density scenarios will be important for empirically validating the approaches presented here
2013-05-01T00:00:00ZMarques, Tiago A.Thomas, LenMartin, StephenMellinger, DavidWard, JessicaMoretti, DavidHarris, Danielle VeronicaTyack, Peter LloydReliable estimation of the size or density of wild animal populations is very important for effective wildlife management, conservation and ecology. Currently, the most widely used methods for obtaining such estimates involve either sighting animals from transect lines or some form of capture-recapture on marked or uniquely identifiable individuals. However, many species are difficult to sight, and cannot be easily marked or recaptured. Some of these species produce readily identifiable sounds, providing an opportunity to use passive acoustic data to estimate animal density. In addition, even for species for which other visually based methods are feasible, passive acoustic methods offer the potential for greater detection ranges in some environments (e.g. underwater or in dense forest), and hence potentially better precision. Automated data collection means that surveys can take place at times and in places where it would be too expensive or dangerous to send human observers. Here, we present an overview of animal density estimation using passive acoustic data, a relatively new and fast-developing field. We review the types of data and methodological approaches currently available to researchers and we provide a framework for acoustics-based density estimation, illustrated with examples from real-world case studies. We mention moving sensor platforms (e.g. towed acoustics), but then focus on methods involving sensors at fixed locations, particularly hydrophones to survey marine mammals, as acoustic-based density estimation research to date has been concentrated in this area. Primary among these are methods based on distance sampling and spatially explicit capture-recapture. The methods are also applicable to other aquatic and terrestrial sound-producing taxa. We conclude that, despite being in its infancy, density estimation based on passive acoustic data likely will become an important method for surveying a number of diverse taxa, such as sea mammals, fish, birds, amphibians, and insects, especially in situations where inferences are required over long periods of time. There is considerable work ahead, with several potentially fruitful research areas, including the development of (i) hardware and software for data acquisition, (ii) efficient, calibrated, automated detection and classification systems, and (iii) statistical approaches optimized for this application. Further, survey design will need to be developed, and research is needed on the acoustic behaviour of target species. Fundamental research on vocalization rates and group sizes, and the relation between these and other factors such as season or behaviour state, is critical. Evaluation of the methods under known density scenarios will be important for empirically validating the approaches presented hereEstimating prevalence of injecting drug users and associated heroin-related death rates in England by using regional data and incorporating prior information
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3494
Injecting drug users (IDUs) have a direct social and economic effect yet can typically be regarded as a hidden population within a community. We estimate the size of the IDU population across the nine different Government Office regions of England in 2005–2006 by using capture–recapture methods with age (ranging from 15 to 64 years) and gender as covariate information. We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach using log-linear models, where we can include explicit prior information within the analysis in relation to the total IDU population (elicited from the number of drug-related deaths and injectors’ drug-related death rates). Estimation at the regional level allows for regional heterogeneity with these regional estimates aggregated to obtain a posterior mean estimate for the number of England's IDUs of 195840 with 95% credible interval (181700, 210480). There is significant variation in the estimated regional prevalence of current IDUs per million of population aged 15–64 years, and in injecting drug-related death rates across the gender × age cross-classifications. The propensity of an IDU to be seen by at least one source also exhibits strong regional variability with London having the lowest propensity of being observed (posterior mean probability 0.21) and the South West the highest propensity (posterior mean 0.46).
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZKing, RuthBird, SheilaOverstall, AntonyHay, GordonHutchinson, SharonInjecting drug users (IDUs) have a direct social and economic effect yet can typically be regarded as a hidden population within a community. We estimate the size of the IDU population across the nine different Government Office regions of England in 2005–2006 by using capture–recapture methods with age (ranging from 15 to 64 years) and gender as covariate information. We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach using log-linear models, where we can include explicit prior information within the analysis in relation to the total IDU population (elicited from the number of drug-related deaths and injectors’ drug-related death rates). Estimation at the regional level allows for regional heterogeneity with these regional estimates aggregated to obtain a posterior mean estimate for the number of England's IDUs of 195840 with 95% credible interval (181700, 210480). There is significant variation in the estimated regional prevalence of current IDUs per million of population aged 15–64 years, and in injecting drug-related death rates across the gender × age cross-classifications. The propensity of an IDU to be seen by at least one source also exhibits strong regional variability with London having the lowest propensity of being observed (posterior mean probability 0.21) and the South West the highest propensity (posterior mean 0.46).Estimating seasonal abundance of a central place forager using counts and telemetry data
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3454
Obtaining population estimates of species that are not easily observed directly can be problematic. However, central place foragers can often be observed some of the time, e.g. when seals are hauled out. In these instances, population estimates can be derived from counts, combined with information on the proportion of time that animals can be observed. We present a modelling framework to estimate seasonal absolute abundance using counts and information from satellite telemetry data. The method was tested on a harbour seal population in an area of southeast Scotland. Counts were made monthly, between November 2001 and June 2003, when seals were hauled out on land and were corrected for the proportion of time the seals were at sea using satellite telemetry. Harbour seals (n=25) were tagged with satellite relay data loggers between November 2001 and March 2003. To estimate the proportion of time spent hauled out, time at sea on foraging trips was modelled separately from haul-out behaviour close to haul-out sites because of the different factors affecting these processes. A generalised linear mixed model framework was developed to capture the longitudinal nature of the data and the repeated measures across individuals. Despite seasonal variability in the number of seals counted at haul-out sites, the model generated estimates of abundance, with an overall mean of 846 (95% CI: 767 to 979). The methodology shows the value of using count and telemetry data collected concurrently for estimating absolute abundance, information that is essential to assess interactions between predators, fish stocks and fisheries.
R.J.S. was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship.
2009-01-01T00:00:00ZSharples, RJMacKenzie, Monique LeaHammond, Philip StevenObtaining population estimates of species that are not easily observed directly can be problematic. However, central place foragers can often be observed some of the time, e.g. when seals are hauled out. In these instances, population estimates can be derived from counts, combined with information on the proportion of time that animals can be observed. We present a modelling framework to estimate seasonal absolute abundance using counts and information from satellite telemetry data. The method was tested on a harbour seal population in an area of southeast Scotland. Counts were made monthly, between November 2001 and June 2003, when seals were hauled out on land and were corrected for the proportion of time the seals were at sea using satellite telemetry. Harbour seals (n=25) were tagged with satellite relay data loggers between November 2001 and March 2003. To estimate the proportion of time spent hauled out, time at sea on foraging trips was modelled separately from haul-out behaviour close to haul-out sites because of the different factors affecting these processes. A generalised linear mixed model framework was developed to capture the longitudinal nature of the data and the repeated measures across individuals. Despite seasonal variability in the number of seals counted at haul-out sites, the model generated estimates of abundance, with an overall mean of 846 (95% CI: 767 to 979). The methodology shows the value of using count and telemetry data collected concurrently for estimating absolute abundance, information that is essential to assess interactions between predators, fish stocks and fisheries.Generating transformation semigroups using endomorphisms of preorders, graphs, and tolerances
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3383
Let ΩΩ be the semigroup of all mappings of a countably infinite set Ω. If U and V are subsemigroups of ΩΩ, then we write U≈V if there exists a finite subset F of ΩΩ such that the subsemigroup generated by U and F equals that generated by V and F. The relative rank of U in ΩΩ is the least cardinality of a subset A of ΩΩ such that the union of U and A generates ΩΩ. In this paper we study the notions of relative rank and the equivalence ≈ for semigroups of endomorphisms of binary relations on Ω. The semigroups of endomorphisms of preorders, bipartite graphs, and tolerances on Ω are shown to lie in two equivalence classes under ≈. Moreover such semigroups have relative rank 0, 1, 2, or d in ΩΩ where d is the minimum cardinality of a dominating family for NN. We give examples of preorders, bipartite graphs, and tolerances on Ω where the relative ranks of their endomorphism semigroups in ΩΩ are 0, 1, 2, and d. We show that the endomorphism semigroups of graphs, in general, fall into at least four classes under ≈ and that there exist graphs where the relative rank of the endomorphism semigroup is 2ℵ0.
2010-09-01T00:00:00ZMitchell, James DavidMorayne, MichalPeresse, Yann HamonQuick, MartynLet ΩΩ be the semigroup of all mappings of a countably infinite set Ω. If U and V are subsemigroups of ΩΩ, then we write U≈V if there exists a finite subset F of ΩΩ such that the subsemigroup generated by U and F equals that generated by V and F. The relative rank of U in ΩΩ is the least cardinality of a subset A of ΩΩ such that the union of U and A generates ΩΩ. In this paper we study the notions of relative rank and the equivalence ≈ for semigroups of endomorphisms of binary relations on Ω. The semigroups of endomorphisms of preorders, bipartite graphs, and tolerances on Ω are shown to lie in two equivalence classes under ≈. Moreover such semigroups have relative rank 0, 1, 2, or d in ΩΩ where d is the minimum cardinality of a dominating family for NN. We give examples of preorders, bipartite graphs, and tolerances on Ω where the relative ranks of their endomorphism semigroups in ΩΩ are 0, 1, 2, and d. We show that the endomorphism semigroups of graphs, in general, fall into at least four classes under ≈ and that there exist graphs where the relative rank of the endomorphism semigroup is 2ℵ0.Fitting complex ecological point process models with integrated nested Laplace approximation
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3364
Summary 1. We highlight an emerging statistical method, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), which is ideally suited for fitting complex models to many of the rich spatial data sets that ecologists wish to analyse. 2. INLA is an approximation method that nevertheless provides very exact estimates. In this article, we describe the INLA methodology highlighting where it offers opportunities for drawing inference from (spatial) ecological data that would previously have been too complex to make practical model fitting feasible. 3. We use INLA to fit a complex joint model to the spatial pattern formed by a plant species, Thymus carnosus, as well as to the health status of each individual. 4. The key ecological result revealed by our spatial analysis of these data, relates to the distance-to-water covariate. We find that T. carnosus plants are generally healthier when they are further away from the water. 5. We suggest that this may be the result of a combination of (1) plants having alternative rooting strategies depending on how close to water they grow and (2) the rooting strategy determining how well the plants were able to tolerate an unusually dry summer. 6. We anticipate INLA becoming widely used within spatial ecological analysis over the next decade and suggest that both ecologists and statisticians will benefit greatly from working collaboratively to further develop and apply these emerging statistical methods.
2013-04-01T00:00:00ZIllian, Janine BaerbelMartino, SaraSørbye, Sigrunn H.Gallego-Fernández, Juan B.Zunzunegui, MariaEsquivias, M. PazTravis, Justin M.Summary 1. We highlight an emerging statistical method, integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), which is ideally suited for fitting complex models to many of the rich spatial data sets that ecologists wish to analyse. 2. INLA is an approximation method that nevertheless provides very exact estimates. In this article, we describe the INLA methodology highlighting where it offers opportunities for drawing inference from (spatial) ecological data that would previously have been too complex to make practical model fitting feasible. 3. We use INLA to fit a complex joint model to the spatial pattern formed by a plant species, Thymus carnosus, as well as to the health status of each individual. 4. The key ecological result revealed by our spatial analysis of these data, relates to the distance-to-water covariate. We find that T. carnosus plants are generally healthier when they are further away from the water. 5. We suggest that this may be the result of a combination of (1) plants having alternative rooting strategies depending on how close to water they grow and (2) the rooting strategy determining how well the plants were able to tolerate an unusually dry summer. 6. We anticipate INLA becoming widely used within spatial ecological analysis over the next decade and suggest that both ecologists and statisticians will benefit greatly from working collaboratively to further develop and apply these emerging statistical methods.A family of spatial biodiversity measures based on graphs
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3350
While much research in ecology has focused on spatially explicit modelling as well as on measures of biodiversity, the concept of spatial (or local) biodiversity has been discussed very little. This paper generalises existing measures of spatial biodiversity and introduces a family of spatial biodiversity measures by flexibly defining the notion of the individuals’ neighbourhood within the framework of graphs associated to a spatial point pattern. We consider two non-independent aspects of spatial biodiversity, scattering, i.e. the spatial arrangement of the individuals in the study area and exposure, the local diversity in an individual’s neighbourhood. A simulation study reveals that measures based on the most commonly used neigh-bourhood defined by the geometric graph do not distinguish well between scattering and exposure. This problem is much less pronounced when other graphs are used. In an analysis of the spatial diversity in a rainforest, the results based on the geometric graph have been shown to spuriously indicate a decrease in spatial biodiversity when no such trend was detected by the other types of neighbourhoods. We also show that the choice neighbourhood markedly impacts on the classification of species according to how strongly and in what way different species spatially structure species diversity. Clearly, in an analysis of spatial or local diversity an appropriate choice of local neighbourhood is crucial in particular in terms of the biological interpretation of the results. Due to its general definition, the approach discussed here offers the necessary flexibility that allows suitable and varying neighbourhood structures to be chosen.
2012-12-01T00:00:00ZRajala, TIllian, Janine BaerbelWhile much research in ecology has focused on spatially explicit modelling as well as on measures of biodiversity, the concept of spatial (or local) biodiversity has been discussed very little. This paper generalises existing measures of spatial biodiversity and introduces a family of spatial biodiversity measures by flexibly defining the notion of the individuals’ neighbourhood within the framework of graphs associated to a spatial point pattern. We consider two non-independent aspects of spatial biodiversity, scattering, i.e. the spatial arrangement of the individuals in the study area and exposure, the local diversity in an individual’s neighbourhood. A simulation study reveals that measures based on the most commonly used neigh-bourhood defined by the geometric graph do not distinguish well between scattering and exposure. This problem is much less pronounced when other graphs are used. In an analysis of the spatial diversity in a rainforest, the results based on the geometric graph have been shown to spuriously indicate a decrease in spatial biodiversity when no such trend was detected by the other types of neighbourhoods. We also show that the choice neighbourhood markedly impacts on the classification of species according to how strongly and in what way different species spatially structure species diversity. Clearly, in an analysis of spatial or local diversity an appropriate choice of local neighbourhood is crucial in particular in terms of the biological interpretation of the results. Due to its general definition, the approach discussed here offers the necessary flexibility that allows suitable and varying neighbourhood structures to be chosen.Multispecies functional response of the minke whale Balaenoptera acutorostrata based on small-scale foraging studies
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3345
Atlantic minke whales are important predators in the Barents Sea ecosystem; capelin Mallotus villosus, krill Thysanoessa sp. and Meganyctephanes norvegica and herring Clupea harengus are their major prey. Their consumption of commercial species may present an economic problem for the local fishery. In order to estimate this consumption and understand the potential consequences for prey dynamics, it is essential to determine the multispecies functional response of the whales. The parameterisation of a functional response requires measurements of consumption rates and prey availability. In this localised study, undigested stomach contents were used to assess the amount of each prey that had been consumed immediately prior to capture. To determine the availability of prey to the whales, standard acoustic surveys were run in the same area within 2 d of the capture of the whales. The spatial distribution of prey was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs). In order to generate a measure of prey availability and the uncertainty in this value, a simple model was assumed for whale movement, and prey abundance was sampled over space according to a Gaussian kernel. A multispecies functional response (MSFR) model was then fitted to the consumption and prey availability data using Bayesian methods. Simple simulations, based on the fitted MSFR, indicate that minke whales may deplete local capelin aggregations at small spatial scales. This is the first time that a multispecies functional response has been fitted for a cetacean predator, and the methods outlined here may prove useful for modelling marine mammal-fish interactions in other systems.
2007-07-01T00:00:00ZSmout, Sophie CarolineLindstrom, UlfAtlantic minke whales are important predators in the Barents Sea ecosystem; capelin Mallotus villosus, krill Thysanoessa sp. and Meganyctephanes norvegica and herring Clupea harengus are their major prey. Their consumption of commercial species may present an economic problem for the local fishery. In order to estimate this consumption and understand the potential consequences for prey dynamics, it is essential to determine the multispecies functional response of the whales. The parameterisation of a functional response requires measurements of consumption rates and prey availability. In this localised study, undigested stomach contents were used to assess the amount of each prey that had been consumed immediately prior to capture. To determine the availability of prey to the whales, standard acoustic surveys were run in the same area within 2 d of the capture of the whales. The spatial distribution of prey was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs). In order to generate a measure of prey availability and the uncertainty in this value, a simple model was assumed for whale movement, and prey abundance was sampled over space according to a Gaussian kernel. A multispecies functional response (MSFR) model was then fitted to the consumption and prey availability data using Bayesian methods. Simple simulations, based on the fitted MSFR, indicate that minke whales may deplete local capelin aggregations at small spatial scales. This is the first time that a multispecies functional response has been fitted for a cetacean predator, and the methods outlined here may prove useful for modelling marine mammal-fish interactions in other systems.Estimating demographic parameters for capture-recapture data in the presence of multiple mark types
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3344
In mark-recapture studies, various techniques can be used to uniquely identify individual animals, such as ringing, tagging or photo-identification using natural markings. In some long-term studies more than one type of marking procedure may be implemented during the study period. In these circumstances, ignoring the different mark types can produce biased survival estimates since the assumption that the different mark types are equally catchable (homogeneous capture probability across mark types) may be incorrect.We implement an integrated approach where we simultaneously analyse data obtained using three different marking techniques, assuming that animals can be cross-classified across the different mark types. We discriminate between competing models using the AIC statistic. This technique also allows us to estimate both relative mark-loss probabilities and relative recapture efficiency rates for the different marking methods.We initially perform a simulation study to explore the different biases that can be introduced if we assume a homogeneous recapture probability over mark type, before applying the method to a real dataset. We make use of data obtained from an intensive long-term observational study of UK female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at a single breeding colony, where three different methods are used to identify individuals within a single study: branding, tagging and photo-identification based on seal coat pattern or pelage.
2011-06-01T00:00:00ZSmout, Sophie CarolineKing, RuthPomeroy, PatrickIn mark-recapture studies, various techniques can be used to uniquely identify individual animals, such as ringing, tagging or photo-identification using natural markings. In some long-term studies more than one type of marking procedure may be implemented during the study period. In these circumstances, ignoring the different mark types can produce biased survival estimates since the assumption that the different mark types are equally catchable (homogeneous capture probability across mark types) may be incorrect.We implement an integrated approach where we simultaneously analyse data obtained using three different marking techniques, assuming that animals can be cross-classified across the different mark types. We discriminate between competing models using the AIC statistic. This technique also allows us to estimate both relative mark-loss probabilities and relative recapture efficiency rates for the different marking methods.We initially perform a simulation study to explore the different biases that can be introduced if we assume a homogeneous recapture probability over mark type, before applying the method to a real dataset. We make use of data obtained from an intensive long-term observational study of UK female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at a single breeding colony, where three different methods are used to identify individuals within a single study: branding, tagging and photo-identification based on seal coat pattern or pelage.Every group is a maximal subgroup of the free idempotent generated semigroup over a band
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3342
Given an arbitrary group G we construct a semigroup of idempotents (band) BG with the property that the free idempotent generated semigroup over BG has a maximal subgroup isomorphic to G. If G is finitely presented then BG is finite. This answers several questions from recent papers in the area.
2013-05-01T00:00:00ZDolinka, IRuskuc, NikGiven an arbitrary group G we construct a semigroup of idempotents (band) BG with the property that the free idempotent generated semigroup over BG has a maximal subgroup isomorphic to G. If G is finitely presented then BG is finite. This answers several questions from recent papers in the area.On disjoint unions of finitely many copies of the free monogenic semigroup
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3341
Every semigroup which is a finite disjoint union of copies of the free monogenic semigroup (natural numbers under addition) is finitely presented and residually finite.
2013-08-01T00:00:00ZAbughazalah, NabilahRuskuc, NikEvery semigroup which is a finite disjoint union of copies of the free monogenic semigroup (natural numbers under addition) is finitely presented and residually finite.Ideals and finiteness conditions for subsemigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3335
In this paper we consider a number of finiteness conditions for semigroups related to their ideal structure, and ask whether such conditions are preserved by sub- or supersemigroups with finite Rees or Green index. Specific properties under consideration include stability, D=J and minimal conditions on ideals.
2014-01-01T00:00:00ZGray, Robert DuncanMaltcev, VictorMitchell, James DavidRuskuc, N.In this paper we consider a number of finiteness conditions for semigroups related to their ideal structure, and ask whether such conditions are preserved by sub- or supersemigroups with finite Rees or Green index. Specific properties under consideration include stability, D=J and minimal conditions on ideals.The geometric mean of relative abundance indices : a biodiversity measure with a difference
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3310
The 2010 Biodiversity Target of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), set in 2002, which stated that there should be ‘a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss' by 2010, highlighted the need for informative and tractable metrics that can be used to evaluate change in biological diversity. While the subsequent Aichi 2020 targets are more wide-ranging, they also seek to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss. The geometric mean of relative abundance indices, G, is increasingly being used to examine trends in biological diversity and to assess whether biodiversity targets are being met. Here, we explore the mathematical and statistical properties of G that make it useful for judging temporal change in biological diversity, and we discuss its advantages and limitations relative to other measures. We demonstrate that the index reflects trends in both abundance and evenness, and that it is not prone to bias when detectability of individuals varies by species. We note that it allows data from different surveys to be combined to generate a composite index. However, the index exhibits high variance and unstable behaviour when rarely-recorded species are included in the analyses. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES11-00186.1
This work is partly supported by the European Research Council
2011-09-02T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrenceStudeny, Angelika CarolineMagurran, AnneIllian, Janine BaerbelNewson, StuartThe 2010 Biodiversity Target of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), set in 2002, which stated that there should be ‘a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss' by 2010, highlighted the need for informative and tractable metrics that can be used to evaluate change in biological diversity. While the subsequent Aichi 2020 targets are more wide-ranging, they also seek to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss. The geometric mean of relative abundance indices, G, is increasingly being used to examine trends in biological diversity and to assess whether biodiversity targets are being met. Here, we explore the mathematical and statistical properties of G that make it useful for judging temporal change in biological diversity, and we discuss its advantages and limitations relative to other measures. We demonstrate that the index reflects trends in both abundance and evenness, and that it is not prone to bias when detectability of individuals varies by species. We note that it allows data from different surveys to be combined to generate a composite index. However, the index exhibits high variance and unstable behaviour when rarely-recorded species are included in the analyses. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES11-00186.1Using INLA to fit a complex point process model with temporally varying effects – a case study
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3306
Integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) provides a fast and yet quite exact approach to fitting complex latent Gaussian models which comprise many statistical models in a Bayesian context, including log Gaussian Cox processes. This paper discusses how a joint log Gaussian Cox process model may be fitted to independent replicated point patterns. We illustrate the approach by fitting a model to data on the locations of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) herds in Zackenberg valley, Northeast Greenland and by detailing how this model is specified within the R-interface R-INLA. The paper strongly focuses on practical problems involved in the modelling process, including issues of spatial scale, edge effects and prior choices, and finishes with a discussion on models with varying boundary conditions.
2012-07-01T00:00:00ZIllian, Janine BaerbelSoerbye, SRue, HHendrichsen, DIntegrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) provides a fast and yet quite exact approach to fitting complex latent Gaussian models which comprise many statistical models in a Bayesian context, including log Gaussian Cox processes. This paper discusses how a joint log Gaussian Cox process model may be fitted to independent replicated point patterns. We illustrate the approach by fitting a model to data on the locations of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) herds in Zackenberg valley, Northeast Greenland and by detailing how this model is specified within the R-interface R-INLA. The paper strongly focuses on practical problems involved in the modelling process, including issues of spatial scale, edge effects and prior choices, and finishes with a discussion on models with varying boundary conditions.A Bayesian approach to fitting Gibbs processes with temporal random effects
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3305
We consider spatial point pattern data that have been observed repeatedly over a period of time in an inhomogeneous environment. Each spatial point pattern can be regarded as a “snapshot” of the underlying point process at a series of times. Thus, the number of points and corresponding locations of points differ for each snapshot. Each snapshot can be analyzed independently, but in many cases there may be little information in the data relating to model parameters, particularly parameters relating to the interaction between points. Thus, we develop an integrated approach, simultaneously analyzing all snapshots within a single robust and consistent analysis. We assume that sufficient time has passed between observation dates so that the spatial point patterns can be regarded as independent replicates, given spatial covariates. We develop a joint mixed effects Gibbs point process model for the replicates of spatial point patterns by considering environmental covariates in the analysis as fixed effects, to model the heterogeneous environment, with a random effects (or hierarchical) component to account for the different observation days for the intensity function. We demonstrate how the model can be fitted within a Bayesian framework using an auxiliary variable approach to deal with the issue of the random effects component. We apply the methods to a data set of musk oxen herds and demonstrate the increased precision of the parameter estimates when considering all available data within a single integrated analysis.
This work is partially supported by Research Councils UK
2012-12-01T00:00:00ZKing, RuthIllian, Janine BaerbelKing, Stuart EdwardNightingale, Glenna FaithHendrichsen, DitteWe consider spatial point pattern data that have been observed repeatedly over a period of time in an inhomogeneous environment. Each spatial point pattern can be regarded as a “snapshot” of the underlying point process at a series of times. Thus, the number of points and corresponding locations of points differ for each snapshot. Each snapshot can be analyzed independently, but in many cases there may be little information in the data relating to model parameters, particularly parameters relating to the interaction between points. Thus, we develop an integrated approach, simultaneously analyzing all snapshots within a single robust and consistent analysis. We assume that sufficient time has passed between observation dates so that the spatial point patterns can be regarded as independent replicates, given spatial covariates. We develop a joint mixed effects Gibbs point process model for the replicates of spatial point patterns by considering environmental covariates in the analysis as fixed effects, to model the heterogeneous environment, with a random effects (or hierarchical) component to account for the different observation days for the intensity function. We demonstrate how the model can be fitted within a Bayesian framework using an auxiliary variable approach to deal with the issue of the random effects component. We apply the methods to a data set of musk oxen herds and demonstrate the increased precision of the parameter estimates when considering all available data within a single integrated analysis.Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity : challenges and opportunities
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3284
Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series—lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality—that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.
2013-01-07T00:00:00ZDornelas, MariaMagurran, AnneBuckland, Stephen TerrenceChao, AnneChazdon, Robin LColwell, Robert KCurtis, TomGaston, Kevin JGotelli, Nicolas JKosnik, Matthew AMcGill, BrianMcCune, Jenny LMorlon, HélèneMumby, Peter JØvreås, LiseStudeny, AngelikaVellend, MarkGrowing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series—lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality—that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions.The functional response of a generalist predator
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3269
Background: Predators can have profound impacts on the dynamics of their prey that depend on how predator consumption is affected by prey density (the predator's functional response). Consumption by a generalist predator is expected to depend on the densities of all its major prey species (its multispecies functional response, or MSFR), but most studies of generalists have focussed on their functional response to only one prey species. Methodology and principal findings: Using Bayesian methods, we fit an MSFR to field data from an avian predator (the hen harrier Circus cyaneus) feeding on three different prey species. We use a simple graphical approach to show that ignoring the effects of alternative prey can give a misleading impression of the predator's effect on the prey of interest. For example, in our system, a “predator pit” for one prey species only occurs when the availability of other prey species is low. Conclusions and significance: The Bayesian approach is effective in fitting the MSFR model to field data. It allows flexibility in modelling over-dispersion, incorporates additional biological information into the parameter priors, and generates estimates of uncertainty in the model's predictions. These features of robustness and data efficiency make our approach ideal for the study of long-lived predators, for which data may be sparse and management/conservation priorities pressing.
2010-05-27T00:00:00ZSmout, Sophie CarolineAsseburg, CMatthiopoulos, JasonFernández, CarmenRedpath, SThirgood, SHarwood, JohnBackground: Predators can have profound impacts on the dynamics of their prey that depend on how predator consumption is affected by prey density (the predator's functional response). Consumption by a generalist predator is expected to depend on the densities of all its major prey species (its multispecies functional response, or MSFR), but most studies of generalists have focussed on their functional response to only one prey species. Methodology and principal findings: Using Bayesian methods, we fit an MSFR to field data from an avian predator (the hen harrier Circus cyaneus) feeding on three different prey species. We use a simple graphical approach to show that ignoring the effects of alternative prey can give a misleading impression of the predator's effect on the prey of interest. For example, in our system, a “predator pit” for one prey species only occurs when the availability of other prey species is low. Conclusions and significance: The Bayesian approach is effective in fitting the MSFR model to field data. It allows flexibility in modelling over-dispersion, incorporates additional biological information into the parameter priors, and generates estimates of uncertainty in the model's predictions. These features of robustness and data efficiency make our approach ideal for the study of long-lived predators, for which data may be sparse and management/conservation priorities pressing.A non-technical overview of spatially explicit capture-recapture models
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3259
Most capture-recapture studies are inherently spatial in nature, with capture probabilities depending on the location of traps relative to animals. The spatial component of the studies has until recently, however, not been incorporated in statistical capture-recapture models. This paper reviews capture-recapture models that do include an explicit spatial component. This is done in a non-technical way, omitting much of the algebraic detail and focussing on the model formulation rather than on the estimation methods (which include inverse prediction, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods). One can view spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models as an endpoint of a series of spatial sampling models, starting with circular plot survey models and moving through conventional distance sampling models, with and without measurement errors, through mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) models. This paper attempts a synthesis of these models in what I hope is a style accessible to non-specialists, placing SECR models in the context of other spatial sampling models.
2012-02-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, DavidMost capture-recapture studies are inherently spatial in nature, with capture probabilities depending on the location of traps relative to animals. The spatial component of the studies has until recently, however, not been incorporated in statistical capture-recapture models. This paper reviews capture-recapture models that do include an explicit spatial component. This is done in a non-technical way, omitting much of the algebraic detail and focussing on the model formulation rather than on the estimation methods (which include inverse prediction, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods). One can view spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models as an endpoint of a series of spatial sampling models, starting with circular plot survey models and moving through conventional distance sampling models, with and without measurement errors, through mark-recapture distance sampling (MRDS) models. This paper attempts a synthesis of these models in what I hope is a style accessible to non-specialists, placing SECR models in the context of other spatial sampling models.Workshop on new developments in cetacean survey methods
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3216
This report contains the slides from a workshop on New Developments in Cetacean Survey Methods held on 27th November 2011 at the 19th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, Tampa, Florida. Review talks were given on Passive Acoustic Density Estimation (Len Thomas); Dealing with g(0)<1: Perception Bias (Stephen Buckland); Dealing with g(0)<1: Availability Bias (Hans Skaug); Dealing with Measurement Error (David Borchers); and Density Surface Modelling (Jay Barlow). The sessions were followed by a discussion, and this is summarized at the end of the report.
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZBorchers, David LouisThomas, LenBuckland, Stephen TerrenceSkaug, HansBarlow, JayThis report contains the slides from a workshop on New Developments in Cetacean Survey Methods held on 27th November 2011 at the 19th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, Tampa, Florida. Review talks were given on Passive Acoustic Density Estimation (Len Thomas); Dealing with g(0)<1: Perception Bias (Stephen Buckland); Dealing with g(0)<1: Availability Bias (Hans Skaug); Dealing with Measurement Error (David Borchers); and Density Surface Modelling (Jay Barlow). The sessions were followed by a discussion, and this is summarized at the end of the report.A detailed investigation of the properties of a Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium for the force-free Harris sheet
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3153
A detailed discussion is presented of the Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium for the force-free Harris sheet recently found by Harrison and Neukirch [Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 135003 (2009)]. The derivation of the distribution function and a discussion of its general properties and their dependence on the distribution function parameters will be given. In particular, the distribution function can be single-peaked or multipeaked in two of the velocity components, with possible implications for stability. The dependence of the shape of the distribution function on the values of its parameters will be investigated and the relation to macroscopic quantities such as the current sheet thickness will be discussed.
2009-12-01T00:00:00ZNeukirch, ThomasWilson, F.Harrison, M. G.A detailed discussion is presented of the Vlasov-Maxwell equilibrium for the force-free Harris sheet recently found by Harrison and Neukirch [Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 135003 (2009)]. The derivation of the distribution function and a discussion of its general properties and their dependence on the distribution function parameters will be given. In particular, the distribution function can be single-peaked or multipeaked in two of the velocity components, with possible implications for stability. The dependence of the shape of the distribution function on the values of its parameters will be investigated and the relation to macroscopic quantities such as the current sheet thickness will be discussed.Growth of generating sets for direct powers of classical algebraic structures
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3058
For an algebraic structure A denote by d(A) the smallest size of a generating set for A, and let d(A)=(d(A),d(A2),d(A3),…), where An denotes a direct power of A. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the sequence d(A) when A is one of the classical structures—a group, ring, module, algebra or Lie algebra. We show that if A is finite then d(A) grows either linearly or logarithmically. In the infinite case constant growth becomes another possibility; in particular, if A is an infinite simple structure belonging to one of the above classes then d(A) is eventually constant. Where appropriate we frame our exposition within the general theory of congruence permutable varieties.
2010-08-01T00:00:00ZQuick, MartynRuskuc, NikFor an algebraic structure A denote by d(A) the smallest size of a generating set for A, and let d(A)=(d(A),d(A2),d(A3),…), where An denotes a direct power of A. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the sequence d(A) when A is one of the classical structures—a group, ring, module, algebra or Lie algebra. We show that if A is finite then d(A) grows either linearly or logarithmically. In the infinite case constant growth becomes another possibility; in particular, if A is an infinite simple structure belonging to one of the above classes then d(A) is eventually constant. Where appropriate we frame our exposition within the general theory of congruence permutable varieties.A general discrete-time modeling framework for animal movement using multistate random walks
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2605
Recent developments in animal tracking technology have permitted the collection of detailed data on the movement paths of individuals from many species. However, analysis methods for these data have not developed at a similar pace, largely due to a lack of suitable candidate models, coupled with the technical difficulties of fitting such models to data. To facilitate a general modeling framework, we propose that complex movement paths can be conceived as a series of movement strategies among which animals transition as they are affected by changes in their internal and external environment. We synthesize previously existing and novel methodologies to develop a general suite of mechanistic models based on biased and correlated random walks that allow different behavioral states for directed (e.g., migration), exploratory (e.g., dispersal), area-restricted (e.g., foraging), and other types of movement. Using this “tool-box” of nested model components, multi-state movement models may be custom-built for a wide variety of species and applications. As a unified state-space modeling framework, it allows the simultaneous investigation of numerous hypotheses about animal movement from imperfectly observed data, including time allocations to different movement behavior states, transitions between states, the use of memory or navigation, and strengths of attraction (or repulsion) to specific locations. The inclusion of covariate information permits further investigation of specific hypotheses related to factors driving different types of movement behavior. Using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to facilitate Bayesian model selection and multi-model inference, we apply the proposed methodology to real data by adapting it to the natural history of the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) in the North Sea. Although previous grey seal studies tended to focus on correlated movements, we found overwhelming evidence that bias towards haul-out or foraging locations better explained seal movement than simple or correlated random walks. Posterior model probabilities also provided evidence that seals transition among directed, area-restricted, and exploratory movements associated with haul-out, foraging, and other behaviors. With this intuitive framework for modeling and interpreting animal movement, we believe the development and application of bespoke movement models will become more accessible to ecologists and non-statisticians.
2012-08-01T00:00:00ZMcClintock, Brett ThomasKing, RuthThomas, LenMatthiopoulos, JasonMcConnell, Bernie JMorales, JuanRecent developments in animal tracking technology have permitted the collection of detailed data on the movement paths of individuals from many species. However, analysis methods for these data have not developed at a similar pace, largely due to a lack of suitable candidate models, coupled with the technical difficulties of fitting such models to data. To facilitate a general modeling framework, we propose that complex movement paths can be conceived as a series of movement strategies among which animals transition as they are affected by changes in their internal and external environment. We synthesize previously existing and novel methodologies to develop a general suite of mechanistic models based on biased and correlated random walks that allow different behavioral states for directed (e.g., migration), exploratory (e.g., dispersal), area-restricted (e.g., foraging), and other types of movement. Using this “tool-box” of nested model components, multi-state movement models may be custom-built for a wide variety of species and applications. As a unified state-space modeling framework, it allows the simultaneous investigation of numerous hypotheses about animal movement from imperfectly observed data, including time allocations to different movement behavior states, transitions between states, the use of memory or navigation, and strengths of attraction (or repulsion) to specific locations. The inclusion of covariate information permits further investigation of specific hypotheses related to factors driving different types of movement behavior. Using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to facilitate Bayesian model selection and multi-model inference, we apply the proposed methodology to real data by adapting it to the natural history of the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) in the North Sea. Although previous grey seal studies tended to focus on correlated movements, we found overwhelming evidence that bias towards haul-out or foraging locations better explained seal movement than simple or correlated random walks. Posterior model probabilities also provided evidence that seals transition among directed, area-restricted, and exploratory movements associated with haul-out, foraging, and other behaviors. With this intuitive framework for modeling and interpreting animal movement, we believe the development and application of bespoke movement models will become more accessible to ecologists and non-statisticians.Status assessment of the Critically Endangered Azores Bullfinch Pyrrhula murina
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2552
The Azores Bullfinch is endemic to the island of São Miguel (Azores, Portugal). Its status was uplisted to Critically Endangered in 2005 on the basis of an extremely small and declining population that was considered to be restricted to a very small mountain range (43 km2), in a single location, within which the spread of invasive plants constituted a threat to habitat quality. Nevertheless, information was mostly inferred, or the product of, non-systematic studies. In order to carry out a complete assessment of the conservation status we analysed: (i) population trend, calculated from annual monitoring 1991–2008, (ii) population size, and (iii) range size, obtaining estimates in a single morning study in 2008 involving the simultaneous participation of 48 observers. Contrary to previous inferences, the population is no longer decreasing, although quality of laurel forest habitat continues to decline due to the persistent threat of invasive species. Population size (mean ± SE) was estimated at 1,064 ± 304 individuals using distance sampling methods, although the estimate was very sensitive to the survey method used. Range size estimates (extent of occurrence and area of occupancy) were 144 km2 and 83 km2 respectively. Given the present information, we propose the downlisting of Azores Bullfinch to Endangered on the IUCN Red List.
'This work was part of the Azores Bullﬁnch monitoring programme included in the project LIFE NAT/P/000013 “Recovery of Azores Bullﬁnch’s habitat in the Special Protection Area of Pico da Vara / Ribeira do Guilherme”'
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZCeia, Ricardo S.Ramos, Jaime A.Heleno, Ruben H.Hilton, Geoff M.Marques, Tiago A.The Azores Bullfinch is endemic to the island of São Miguel (Azores, Portugal). Its status was uplisted to Critically Endangered in 2005 on the basis of an extremely small and declining population that was considered to be restricted to a very small mountain range (43 km2), in a single location, within which the spread of invasive plants constituted a threat to habitat quality. Nevertheless, information was mostly inferred, or the product of, non-systematic studies. In order to carry out a complete assessment of the conservation status we analysed: (i) population trend, calculated from annual monitoring 1991–2008, (ii) population size, and (iii) range size, obtaining estimates in a single morning study in 2008 involving the simultaneous participation of 48 observers. Contrary to previous inferences, the population is no longer decreasing, although quality of laurel forest habitat continues to decline due to the persistent threat of invasive species. Population size (mean ± SE) was estimated at 1,064 ± 304 individuals using distance sampling methods, although the estimate was very sensitive to the survey method used. Range size estimates (extent of occurrence and area of occupancy) were 144 km2 and 83 km2 respectively. Given the present information, we propose the downlisting of Azores Bullfinch to Endangered on the IUCN Red List.Geometric grid classes of permutations
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2450
A geometric grid class consists of those permutations that can be drawn on a specified set of line segments of slope ±1 arranged in a rectangular pattern governed by a matrix. Using a mixture of geometric and language theoretic methods, we prove that such classes are specified by finite sets of forbidden permutations, are partially well ordered, and have rational generating functions. Furthermore, we show that these properties are inherited by the subclasses (under permutation involvement) of such classes, and establish the basic lattice theoretic properties of the collection of all such subclasses.
2013-11-01T00:00:00ZAlbert, M.H.Atkinson, M.D.Bouvel, M.Ruskuc, NikVatter, V.A geometric grid class consists of those permutations that can be drawn on a specified set of line segments of slope ±1 arranged in a rectangular pattern governed by a matrix. Using a mixture of geometric and language theoretic methods, we prove that such classes are specified by finite sets of forbidden permutations, are partially well ordered, and have rational generating functions. Furthermore, we show that these properties are inherited by the subclasses (under permutation involvement) of such classes, and establish the basic lattice theoretic properties of the collection of all such subclasses.Unary FA-presentable semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2375
Automatic presentations, also called FA-presentations, were introduced to extend nite model theory to innite structures whilst retaining the solubility of interesting decision problems. A particular focus of research has been the classication of those structures of some species that admit automatic presentations. Whilst some successes have been obtained, this appears to be a dicult problem in general. A restricted problem, also of signicant interest, is to ask this question for unary automatic presentations: auto-matic presentations over a one-letter alphabet. This paper studies unary FA-presentable semigroups. We prove the following: Every unary FA-presentable structure admits an injective unary automatic presentation where the language of representatives consists of every word over a one-letter alphabet. Unary FA-presentable semigroups are locally nite, but non-nitely generated unary FA-presentable semigroups may be innite. Every unary FA-presentable semigroup satises some Burnside identity.We describe the Green's relations in unary FA-presentable semigroups. We investigate the relationship between the class of unary FA-presentable semigroups and various semigroup constructions. A classication is given of the unary FA-presentable completely simple semigroups.
2012-06-08T00:00:00ZCain, Alan JamesRuskuc, NikThomas, R.M.Automatic presentations, also called FA-presentations, were introduced to extend nite model theory to innite structures whilst retaining the solubility of interesting decision problems. A particular focus of research has been the classication of those structures of some species that admit automatic presentations. Whilst some successes have been obtained, this appears to be a dicult problem in general. A restricted problem, also of signicant interest, is to ask this question for unary automatic presentations: auto-matic presentations over a one-letter alphabet. This paper studies unary FA-presentable semigroups. We prove the following: Every unary FA-presentable structure admits an injective unary automatic presentation where the language of representatives consists of every word over a one-letter alphabet. Unary FA-presentable semigroups are locally nite, but non-nitely generated unary FA-presentable semigroups may be innite. Every unary FA-presentable semigroup satises some Burnside identity.We describe the Green's relations in unary FA-presentable semigroups. We investigate the relationship between the class of unary FA-presentable semigroups and various semigroup constructions. A classication is given of the unary FA-presentable completely simple semigroups.Three-dimensional solutions of the magnetohydrostatic equations : rigidly rotating magnetized coronae in spherical geometry
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2269
Context. Magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equilibria are often used to model astrophysical plasmas, for example, planetary magnetospheres or coronae of magnetized stars. However, finding realistic three-dimensional solutions to the MHS equations is difficult, with only a few known analytical solutions and even finding numerical solution is far from easy. Aims. We extend the results of a previous paper on three-dimensional solutions of the MHS equations around rigidly rotating massive cylinders to the much more realistic case of rigidly rotating massive spheres. An obvious application is to model the closed field line regions of the coronae of rapidly rotating stars. Methods. We used a number of simplifying assumptions to reduce the MHS equations to a single elliptic partial differential equation for a pseudo-potential U, from which all physical quantities, such as the magnetic field, the plasma pressure, and the density, can be derived by differentiation. The most important assumptions made are stationarity in the co-rotating frame of reference, a particular form for the current density, and neglect of outflows. Results. In this paper we demonstrate that standard methods can be used to find numerical solutions to the fundamental equation of the theory. We present three simple different cases of magnetic field boundary conditions on the surface of the central sphere, corresponding to an aligned dipole field, a non-aligned dipole field, and a displaced dipole field. Our results show that it should be possible in the future to use this method without dramatically increasing the demands on computational resources to improve upon potential field models of rotating magnetospheres and coronae.
2010-10-01T00:00:00ZAl-Salti, NasserNeukirch, ThomasContext. Magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equilibria are often used to model astrophysical plasmas, for example, planetary magnetospheres or coronae of magnetized stars. However, finding realistic three-dimensional solutions to the MHS equations is difficult, with only a few known analytical solutions and even finding numerical solution is far from easy. Aims. We extend the results of a previous paper on three-dimensional solutions of the MHS equations around rigidly rotating massive cylinders to the much more realistic case of rigidly rotating massive spheres. An obvious application is to model the closed field line regions of the coronae of rapidly rotating stars. Methods. We used a number of simplifying assumptions to reduce the MHS equations to a single elliptic partial differential equation for a pseudo-potential U, from which all physical quantities, such as the magnetic field, the plasma pressure, and the density, can be derived by differentiation. The most important assumptions made are stationarity in the co-rotating frame of reference, a particular form for the current density, and neglect of outflows. Results. In this paper we demonstrate that standard methods can be used to find numerical solutions to the fundamental equation of the theory. We present three simple different cases of magnetic field boundary conditions on the surface of the central sphere, corresponding to an aligned dipole field, a non-aligned dipole field, and a displaced dipole field. Our results show that it should be possible in the future to use this method without dramatically increasing the demands on computational resources to improve upon potential field models of rotating magnetospheres and coronae.Three-dimensional solutions of the magnetohydrostatic equations : rigidly rotating magnetized coronae in cylindrical geometry
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2267
Context. Solutions of the magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equations are very important for modelling astrophysical plasmas, such as the coronae of magnetized stars. Realistic models should be three-dimensional, i.e., should not have any spatial symmetries, but finding three-dimensional solutions of the MHS equations is a formidable task. Aims. We present a general theoretical framework for calculating three-dimensional MHS solutions outside massive rigidly rotating central bodies, together with example solutions. A possible future application is to model the closed field region of the coronae of fast-rotating stars. Methods. As a first step, we present in this paper the theory and solutions for the case of a massive rigidly rotating magnetized cylinder, but the theory can easily be extended to other geometries, We assume that the solutions are stationary in the co-rotating frame of reference. To simplify the MHS equations, we use a special form for the current density, which leads to a single linear partial differential equation for a pseudo-potential U. The magnetic field can be derived from U by differentiation. The plasma density, pressure, and temperature are also part of the solution. Results. We derive the fundamental equation for the pseudo-potential both in coordinate independent form and in cylindrical coordinates. We present numerical example solutions for the case of cylindrical coordinates.
2010-05-01T00:00:00ZAl-Salti, NasserNeukirch, ThomasRyan, Richard DanielContext. Solutions of the magnetohydrostatic (MHS) equations are very important for modelling astrophysical plasmas, such as the coronae of magnetized stars. Realistic models should be three-dimensional, i.e., should not have any spatial symmetries, but finding three-dimensional solutions of the MHS equations is a formidable task. Aims. We present a general theoretical framework for calculating three-dimensional MHS solutions outside massive rigidly rotating central bodies, together with example solutions. A possible future application is to model the closed field region of the coronae of fast-rotating stars. Methods. As a first step, we present in this paper the theory and solutions for the case of a massive rigidly rotating magnetized cylinder, but the theory can easily be extended to other geometries, We assume that the solutions are stationary in the co-rotating frame of reference. To simplify the MHS equations, we use a special form for the current density, which leads to a single linear partial differential equation for a pseudo-potential U. The magnetic field can be derived from U by differentiation. The plasma density, pressure, and temperature are also part of the solution. Results. We derive the fundamental equation for the pseudo-potential both in coordinate independent form and in cylindrical coordinates. We present numerical example solutions for the case of cylindrical coordinates.Universal scaling rules predict evolutionary patterns of myogenesis in species with indeterminate growth
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2170
Intraspecific phenotypic variation is ubiquitous and often associated with resource exploitation in emerging habitats. For example, reduced body size has evolved repeatedly in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.) and threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) across post-glacial habitats of the Northern Hemisphere. Exploiting these models, we examined how body size and myogenesis evolve with respect to the 'optimum fibre size hypothesis', which predicts that selection acts to minimize energetic costs associated with ionic homeostasis by optimizing muscle fibre production during development. In eight dwarf Icelandic Arctic charr populations, the ultimate production of fast-twitch muscle fibres (FN(max)) was only 39.5 and 15.5 per cent of that in large-bodied natural and aquaculture populations, respectively. Consequently, average fibre diameter (FD) scaled with a mass exponent of 0.19, paralleling the relaxation of diffusional constraints associated with mass-specific metabolic rate scaling. Similar reductions in FN(max) were observed for stickleback, including a small-bodied Alaskan population derived from a larger-bodied oceanic stock over a decadal timescale. The results suggest that in species showing indeterminate growth, body size evolution is accompanied by strong selection for fibre size optimization, theoretically allowing resources saved from ionic homeostasis to be allocated to other traits affecting fitness, including reproduction. Gene flow between small- and large-bodied populations residing in sympatry may counteract the evolution of this trait.
2012-06-07T00:00:00ZJohnston, Ian AlistairKristjansson, Bjarni K.Paxton, Charles G. M.Vieira-Johnston, Vera Lucia AlmeidaMacQueen, Daniel JohnBell, Michael A.Intraspecific phenotypic variation is ubiquitous and often associated with resource exploitation in emerging habitats. For example, reduced body size has evolved repeatedly in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.) and threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) across post-glacial habitats of the Northern Hemisphere. Exploiting these models, we examined how body size and myogenesis evolve with respect to the 'optimum fibre size hypothesis', which predicts that selection acts to minimize energetic costs associated with ionic homeostasis by optimizing muscle fibre production during development. In eight dwarf Icelandic Arctic charr populations, the ultimate production of fast-twitch muscle fibres (FN(max)) was only 39.5 and 15.5 per cent of that in large-bodied natural and aquaculture populations, respectively. Consequently, average fibre diameter (FD) scaled with a mass exponent of 0.19, paralleling the relaxation of diffusional constraints associated with mass-specific metabolic rate scaling. Similar reductions in FN(max) were observed for stickleback, including a small-bodied Alaskan population derived from a larger-bodied oceanic stock over a decadal timescale. The results suggest that in species showing indeterminate growth, body size evolution is accompanied by strong selection for fibre size optimization, theoretically allowing resources saved from ionic homeostasis to be allocated to other traits affecting fitness, including reproduction. Gene flow between small- and large-bodied populations residing in sympatry may counteract the evolution of this trait.An update to the methods in Endangered Species Research 2011 paper "Estimating North Pacific right whale Eubalaena japonica density using passive acoustic cue counting"
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2158
2012-01-01T00:00:00ZMarques, Tiago A.Munger, LisaThomas, LenWiggins, SeanHildebrand, JohnOn residual finiteness of direct products of algebraic systems
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2146
It is well known that if two algebraic structures A and B are residually finite then so is their direct product. Here we discuss the converse of this statement. It is of course true if A and B contain idempotents, which covers the case of groups, rings, etc. We prove that the converse also holds for semigroups even though they need not have idempotents. We also exhibit three examples which show that the converse does not hold in general.
2009-09-01T00:00:00ZGray, R.Ruskuc, NikIt is well known that if two algebraic structures A and B are residually finite then so is their direct product. Here we discuss the converse of this statement. It is of course true if A and B contain idempotents, which covers the case of groups, rings, etc. We prove that the converse also holds for semigroups even though they need not have idempotents. We also exhibit three examples which show that the converse does not hold in general.Properties of the subsemigroups of the bicyclic monoid
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2142
In this paper we study some properties of the subsemigroups of the bicyclic monoid B, by using a recent description of its subsemigroups. We start by giving necessary and sufficient conditions for a subsemigroup to be finitely generated. Then we show that all finitely generated subsemigroups are automatic and finitely presented. Finally we prove that a subsemigroup of B is residually finite if and only if it does not contain a copy of B.
2008-06-01T00:00:00ZDescalco, L.Ruskuc, NikIn this paper we study some properties of the subsemigroups of the bicyclic monoid B, by using a recent description of its subsemigroups. We start by giving necessary and sufficient conditions for a subsemigroup to be finitely generated. Then we show that all finitely generated subsemigroups are automatic and finitely presented. Finally we prove that a subsemigroup of B is residually finite if and only if it does not contain a copy of B.On generators and presentations of semidirect products in inverse semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2136
In this paper we prove two main results. The first is a necessary and sufficient condition for a semidirect product of a semilattice by a group to be finitely generated. The second result is a necessary and sufficient condition for such a semidirect product to be finitely presented.
2009-06-01T00:00:00ZDombi, Erzsebet RitaRuskuc, NikIn this paper we prove two main results. The first is a necessary and sufficient condition for a semidirect product of a semilattice by a group to be finitely generated. The second result is a necessary and sufficient condition for such a semidirect product to be finitely presented.Maximal subgroups of free idempotent-generated semigroups over the full transformation monoid
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2134
Let Tn be the full transformation semigroup of all mappings from the set {1, . . . , n} to itself under composition. Let E = E(Tn) denote the set of idempotents of Tn and let e ∈ E be an arbitrary idempotent satisfying |im (e)| = r ≤ n − 2. We prove that the maximal subgroup of the free idempotent generated semigroup over E containing e is isomorphic to the symmetric group Sr.
2012-05-01T00:00:00ZGray, RRuskuc, NikLet Tn be the full transformation semigroup of all mappings from the set {1, . . . , n} to itself under composition. Let E = E(Tn) denote the set of idempotents of Tn and let e ∈ E be an arbitrary idempotent satisfying |im (e)| = r ≤ n − 2. We prove that the maximal subgroup of the free idempotent generated semigroup over E containing e is isomorphic to the symmetric group Sr.On the growth of generating sets for direct powers of semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2129
For a semigroup S its d-sequence is d(S) = (d1, d2, d3, . . .), where di is the smallest number of elements needed to generate the ith direct power of S. In this paper we present a number of facts concerning the type of growth d(S) can have when S is an infinite semigroup, comparing them with the corresponding known facts for infinite groups, and also for finite groups and semigroups.
2012-01-01T00:00:00ZHyde, James ThomasLoughlin, NicholasQuick, MartynRuskuc, NikWallis, AlistairFor a semigroup S its d-sequence is d(S) = (d1, d2, d3, . . .), where di is the smallest number of elements needed to generate the ith direct power of S. In this paper we present a number of facts concerning the type of growth d(S) can have when S is an infinite semigroup, comparing them with the corresponding known facts for infinite groups, and also for finite groups and semigroups.A toolbox for fitting complex spatial point process models using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2120
This paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by considering constructed covariates. This enables us to use integrated nested Laplace approximation and to considerably speed up the inferential task. In addition, methods for model comparison and model assessment facilitate the modelling process. The performance of the approach is assessed in a simulation study. To demonstrate the versatility of the approach, models are tted to two rather dierent examples, a large rainforest data set with covariates and a point pattern with multiple marks.
"The authors also gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Research Councils UK for Illian"
2012-12-01T00:00:00ZIllian, Janine BaerbelSorbye, S HRue, HThis paper develops methodology that provides a toolbox for routinely fitting complex models to realistic spatial point pattern data. We consider models that are based on log-Gaussian Cox processes and include local interaction in these by considering constructed covariates. This enables us to use integrated nested Laplace approximation and to considerably speed up the inferential task. In addition, methods for model comparison and model assessment facilitate the modelling process. The performance of the approach is assessed in a simulation study. To demonstrate the versatility of the approach, models are tted to two rather dierent examples, a large rainforest data set with covariates and a point pattern with multiple marks.The steady-state form of large-amplitude internal solitary waves
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2084
A new numerical scheme for obtaining the steady-state form of an internal solitary wave of large amplitude is presented. A stratified inviscid two-dimensional fluid under the Boussinesq approximation flowing between horizontal rigid boundaries is considered. The stratification is stable, and buoyancy is continuously differentiable throughout the domain of the flow. Solutions are obtained by tracing the buoyancy frequency along streamlines from the undisturbed far field. From this the vorticity field can be constructed and the streamfunction may then be obtained by inversion of Laplace's operator. The scheme is presented as an iterative solver, where the inversion of Laplace's operator is performed spectrally. The solutions agree well with previous results for stratification in which the buoyancy frequency is a discontinuous function. The new numerical scheme allows significantly larger amplitude waves to be computed than have been presented before and it is shown that waves with Richardson numbers as low as 0.062 can be computed straightforwardly. The method is also extended to deal in a novel way with closed streamlines when they occur in the domain. The new solutions are tested in independent fully nonlinear time-dependent simulations and are verified to be steady. Waves with regions of recirculation are also discussed.
2011-01-10T00:00:00ZKing, Stuart EdwardCarr, MagdaDritschel, David GerardA new numerical scheme for obtaining the steady-state form of an internal solitary wave of large amplitude is presented. A stratified inviscid two-dimensional fluid under the Boussinesq approximation flowing between horizontal rigid boundaries is considered. The stratification is stable, and buoyancy is continuously differentiable throughout the domain of the flow. Solutions are obtained by tracing the buoyancy frequency along streamlines from the undisturbed far field. From this the vorticity field can be constructed and the streamfunction may then be obtained by inversion of Laplace's operator. The scheme is presented as an iterative solver, where the inversion of Laplace's operator is performed spectrally. The solutions agree well with previous results for stratification in which the buoyancy frequency is a discontinuous function. The new numerical scheme allows significantly larger amplitude waves to be computed than have been presented before and it is shown that waves with Richardson numbers as low as 0.062 can be computed straightforwardly. The method is also extended to deal in a novel way with closed streamlines when they occur in the domain. The new solutions are tested in independent fully nonlinear time-dependent simulations and are verified to be steady. Waves with regions of recirculation are also discussed.Complex Region Spatial Smoother (CReSS)
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2048
Conventional smoothing over complicated coastal and island regions may result in errors across boundaries, due to the use of Euclidean distances to represent inter-point similarity. The new Complex Region Spatial Smoother (CReSS) method presented here, uses estimated geodesic distances, model averaging and a local radial basis function to provide improved smoothing over complex domains. CReSS is compared, via simulation, to recent related smoothing techniques, Thin Plate Splines (TPS, Harder and Desmarais, 1972), geodesic low rank TPS [Wang and Ranalli, 2007] and the Soap film smoother [Wood et al., 2008]. The GLTPS method cannot be used in areas with islands and SOAP can be hard to parameterize. CReSS is comparable with, if not better than, all considered methods on a range of simulations. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
This work is supported with funding from NERC UK
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZScott Hayward, Lindesay Alexandra SarahMacKenzie, Monique LeaDonovan, Carl RobertWalker, CameronAshe, ErinConventional smoothing over complicated coastal and island regions may result in errors across boundaries, due to the use of Euclidean distances to represent inter-point similarity. The new Complex Region Spatial Smoother (CReSS) method presented here, uses estimated geodesic distances, model averaging and a local radial basis function to provide improved smoothing over complex domains. CReSS is compared, via simulation, to recent related smoothing techniques, Thin Plate Splines (TPS, Harder and Desmarais, 1972), geodesic low rank TPS [Wang and Ranalli, 2007] and the Soap film smoother [Wood et al., 2008]. The GLTPS method cannot be used in areas with islands and SOAP can be hard to parameterize. CReSS is comparable with, if not better than, all considered methods on a range of simulations. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.The primitive permutation groups of degree less than 4096
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2045
In this paper we use the Classification of the Finite Simple Groups, the O’Nan– Scott Theorem and Aschbacher’s theorem to classify the primitive permutation groups of degree less than 4096. The results will be added to the primitive groups databases of GAP and Magma.
The first author is supported by an EPSRC doctoral training grant. The second and third authors acknowledge the support of EPSRC grant number EP/C523229/1.
2011-10-14T00:00:00ZCoutts, Hannah JaneQuick, MartynRoney-Dougal, Colva MaryIn this paper we use the Classification of the Finite Simple Groups, the O’Nan– Scott Theorem and Aschbacher’s theorem to classify the primitive permutation groups of degree less than 4096. The results will be added to the primitive groups databases of GAP and Magma.Groups with the basis property
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2044
We study finite groups for which every minimal generating set has the same cardinality. A group has the basis property if it and every subgroup satisfies this condition on minimal generating sets. We classify all finite groups with the basis property.
"The ﬁrst author is supported by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Grant"
2011-11-15T00:00:00ZMcDougall-Bagnall, Jonathan M.Quick, MartynWe study finite groups for which every minimal generating set has the same cardinality. A group has the basis property if it and every subgroup satisfies this condition on minimal generating sets. We classify all finite groups with the basis property.Comparing pre- and post-construction distributions of long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis in and around the Nysted offshore wind farm, Denmark : a quasi-designed experiment accounting for imperfect detection, local surface features and autocorrelation
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2008
We report a novel technique to model abundance patterns of wintering seaducks in relation to the construction of an offshore wind farm (OWF) based on seven years of aerial survey transect data. Distance sampling was used to estimate seaduck densities adjusted for covariates affecting detection probabilities. A generalized additive model (GAM) generated seaduck densities in sampling units in relation to spatially explicit covariates, using bootstrapping to account for uncertainties in both processes. Generalized estimating equations generated precision measures for the GAM robust to spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Comparison of pre- and post-construction model generated surfaces showed significant reductions in long-tailed duck numbers only within the OWF (despite the fact that the model was uninformed about the OWF location), although the absolute numbers involved were trivial in a flyway population context. This method provides quantification of distributional effects on organisms over a gradient in space and time that offers an alternative to Before-After/Control-Impact designs in environmental impact assessment.
2011-01-01T00:00:00ZPetersen, Ib KragMacKenzie, Monique LeaRexstad, EricWisz, Mary S.Fox, Anthony D.We report a novel technique to model abundance patterns of wintering seaducks in relation to the construction of an offshore wind farm (OWF) based on seven years of aerial survey transect data. Distance sampling was used to estimate seaduck densities adjusted for covariates affecting detection probabilities. A generalized additive model (GAM) generated seaduck densities in sampling units in relation to spatially explicit covariates, using bootstrapping to account for uncertainties in both processes. Generalized estimating equations generated precision measures for the GAM robust to spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Comparison of pre- and post-construction model generated surfaces showed significant reductions in long-tailed duck numbers only within the OWF (despite the fact that the model was uninformed about the OWF location), although the absolute numbers involved were trivial in a flyway population context. This method provides quantification of distributional effects on organisms over a gradient in space and time that offers an alternative to Before-After/Control-Impact designs in environmental impact assessment.Finite groups are big as semigroups
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2004
We prove that a finite group G occurs as a maximal proper subsemigroup of an infinite semigroup (in the terminology of Freese, Ježek, and Nation, G is a big semigroup) if and only if |G| ≥ 3. In fact, any finite semigroup whose minimal ideal contains a subgroup with at least three elements is big.
2011-09-01T00:00:00ZDolinka, IgorRuskuc, NikWe prove that a finite group G occurs as a maximal proper subsemigroup of an infinite semigroup (in the terminology of Freese, Ježek, and Nation, G is a big semigroup) if and only if |G| ≥ 3. In fact, any finite semigroup whose minimal ideal contains a subgroup with at least three elements is big.A first survey of the global population size and distribution of the Scottish Crossbill Loxia scotica
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1957
A survey of Scottish Crossbills Loxia scotica was carried out in 3,506 km2 of conifer woodland in northern Scotland during January to April 2008 to provide the first estimate of the global population size for this endemic bird. Population estimates were also made for Common Crossbills L. curvirostra and Parrot Crossbills L. pytyopsittacus within this range. Crossbills were lured to systematically selected survey points for counting, sexing and recording their calls for later call-type (species) identification from sonograms. Crossbills were located at 451 of the 852 survey points, and adequate tape-recordings made at 387 of these. The Scottish Crossbill had a disjunct distribution, occurring largely within the eastern part of the study area, but also in the northwest. Common Crossbills had a mainly westerly distribution. The population size of postjuvenile Scottish Crossbills was estimated as 13,600 (95%C.I. 8,130–22,700), which will approximate to 6,800 (4,065–11,350) pairs. Common Crossbills were more abundant within this range (27,100, 95% C.I. 14,700–38,400) and Parrot Crossbills rare (about 100). The sex ratio was not significantly different from parity for Scottish Crossbills. The modal number at survey points was two but numbers were larger in January than later in the survey. The numbers and distribution of all crossbill species are likely to vary between years, depending upon the size of the cone crops of the different conifers: all were coning in 2008. Common Crossbill and Parrot Crossbill numbers will also be affected by irruptions from continental Europe. A monitoring scheme is required to detect any population trend, and further work on their habitat requirement (e.g. conifer selection at different seasons) is needed to inform habitat management of native and planted conifer forests to ensure a secure future for this endemic bird.
"The survey was part-financed by Scottish Natural Heritage"
2011-06-01T00:00:00ZSummers, Ron WBuckland, Stephen TerrenceA survey of Scottish Crossbills Loxia scotica was carried out in 3,506 km2 of conifer woodland in northern Scotland during January to April 2008 to provide the first estimate of the global population size for this endemic bird. Population estimates were also made for Common Crossbills L. curvirostra and Parrot Crossbills L. pytyopsittacus within this range. Crossbills were lured to systematically selected survey points for counting, sexing and recording their calls for later call-type (species) identification from sonograms. Crossbills were located at 451 of the 852 survey points, and adequate tape-recordings made at 387 of these. The Scottish Crossbill had a disjunct distribution, occurring largely within the eastern part of the study area, but also in the northwest. Common Crossbills had a mainly westerly distribution. The population size of postjuvenile Scottish Crossbills was estimated as 13,600 (95%C.I. 8,130–22,700), which will approximate to 6,800 (4,065–11,350) pairs. Common Crossbills were more abundant within this range (27,100, 95% C.I. 14,700–38,400) and Parrot Crossbills rare (about 100). The sex ratio was not significantly different from parity for Scottish Crossbills. The modal number at survey points was two but numbers were larger in January than later in the survey. The numbers and distribution of all crossbill species are likely to vary between years, depending upon the size of the cone crops of the different conifers: all were coning in 2008. Common Crossbill and Parrot Crossbill numbers will also be affected by irruptions from continental Europe. A monitoring scheme is required to detect any population trend, and further work on their habitat requirement (e.g. conifer selection at different seasons) is needed to inform habitat management of native and planted conifer forests to ensure a secure future for this endemic bird.Estimating bird abundance : making methods work
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1930
In many bird monitoring Surveys, no attempt is made to estimate bird densities or abundance. instead, counts of one form or another are made, and these are assumed to correlate with bird density. Unless complete Counts Oil Sample plots are feasible, this approach can easily lead to false conclusions, because detectability of birds varies by species, habitat, observer and many other factors. Trends in time of counts often reflect trends in detectability, rather than trends in abundance. Conclusions are further compromised when surveys are conducted at unrepresentative sites. We consider how to avoid these problems. We give a brief description of distance sampling methods, which allow detectability to be estimated. We consider strategies to ease their implementation, to enhance their reliability, to adapt the methods for difficult species, and to deal with circumstances in which representative sampling is problematic. We also consider some of the common problems encountered, and suggest solutions.
2008-09-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen T.Marsden, Stuart J.Green, Rhys E.In many bird monitoring Surveys, no attempt is made to estimate bird densities or abundance. instead, counts of one form or another are made, and these are assumed to correlate with bird density. Unless complete Counts Oil Sample plots are feasible, this approach can easily lead to false conclusions, because detectability of birds varies by species, habitat, observer and many other factors. Trends in time of counts often reflect trends in detectability, rather than trends in abundance. Conclusions are further compromised when surveys are conducted at unrepresentative sites. We consider how to avoid these problems. We give a brief description of distance sampling methods, which allow detectability to be estimated. We consider strategies to ease their implementation, to enhance their reliability, to adapt the methods for difficult species, and to deal with circumstances in which representative sampling is problematic. We also consider some of the common problems encountered, and suggest solutions.Double-observer line transect methods : levels of independence
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1928
Double-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.
2010-03-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrenceLaake, Jeffrey L.Borchers, David LouisDouble-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.Design and analysis of line transect surveys for primates
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1927
Line transect surveys are widely used for estimating abundance of primate populations. The method relies on a small number of key assumptions, and if these are not met, substantial bias may occur. For a variety of reasons, primate surveys often do not follow what is generally considered to be best practice, either in survey design or in analysis. The design often comprises too few lines (sometimes just one), subjectively placed or placed along trails, so lacks both randomization and adequate replication. Analysis often involves flawed or inefficient models, and often uses biased estimates of the locations of primate groups relative to the line. We outline the standard method, emphasizing the assumptions underlying the approach. We then consider options for when it is difficult or impossible to meet key assumptions. We explore the performance of these options by simulation, focusing particularly on the analysis of primate group sizes, where many of the variations in survey methods have been developed. We also discuss design issues, field methods, analysis, and potential alternative methodologies for when standard line transect sampling cannot deliver reliable abundance estimates.
An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10764-010-9470-y
2010-10-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrencePlumptre, A JThomas, LenRexstad, Eric ALine transect surveys are widely used for estimating abundance of primate populations. The method relies on a small number of key assumptions, and if these are not met, substantial bias may occur. For a variety of reasons, primate surveys often do not follow what is generally considered to be best practice, either in survey design or in analysis. The design often comprises too few lines (sometimes just one), subjectively placed or placed along trails, so lacks both randomization and adequate replication. Analysis often involves flawed or inefficient models, and often uses biased estimates of the locations of primate groups relative to the line. We outline the standard method, emphasizing the assumptions underlying the approach. We then consider options for when it is difficult or impossible to meet key assumptions. We explore the performance of these options by simulation, focusing particularly on the analysis of primate group sizes, where many of the variations in survey methods have been developed. We also discuss design issues, field methods, analysis, and potential alternative methodologies for when standard line transect sampling cannot deliver reliable abundance estimates.Line transect sampling of primates : can animal-to-observer distance methods work?
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1926
Line transect sampling is widely used for estimating abundance of primate populations. Animal-to-observer distances (AODs) are commonly used in analysis, in preference to perpendicular distances from the line. This is in marked contrast with standard practice for other applications of line transect sampling. We formalize the mathematical shortcomings of approaches based on AODs, and show that they are likely to give strongly biased estimates of density. We review papers that claim good performance for the method, and explore this performance through simulations. These confirm strong bias in estimates of density using AODs. We conclude that AOD methods are conceptually flawed, and that they cannot in general provide valid estimates of density.
An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10764-010-9469-4
2010-06-01T00:00:00ZBuckland, Stephen TerrencePlumptre, A JThomas, LenRexstad, EricLine transect sampling is widely used for estimating abundance of primate populations. Animal-to-observer distances (AODs) are commonly used in analysis, in preference to perpendicular distances from the line. This is in marked contrast with standard practice for other applications of line transect sampling. We formalize the mathematical shortcomings of approaches based on AODs, and show that they are likely to give strongly biased estimates of density. We review papers that claim good performance for the method, and explore this performance through simulations. These confirm strong bias in estimates of density using AODs. We conclude that AOD methods are conceptually flawed, and that they cannot in general provide valid estimates of density.Estimating the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation size
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1879
A large scale survey was conducted in August 2004 to estimate the size of the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation. We combined helicopter line transect distance sampling surveys in most of the survey area with total counts in small areas not suitable for distance sampling. Due to weather constraints we failed to survey some of the areas originally planned to be covered by distance sampling. For those, abundance was estimated using a ratio estimator, in which the auxiliary variable was the number of satellite telemetry fixes (in previous years). We estimated that the Barents Sea subpopulation had approximately 2650 (95% CI approx 1900 to 3600) bears. Given current intense interest in polar bear management due to the potentially disastrous effects of climate change, it is surprising that many subpopulation sizes are still unknown. We show here that line transect sampling is a promising method for addressing the need for abundance estimates.
2009-01-01T00:00:00ZAars, JMarques, Tiago Andre Lamas OliveiraAndersen, MBelikov, SBoltunov, ABuckland, Stephen TerrenceWiig, OA large scale survey was conducted in August 2004 to estimate the size of the Barents Sea polar bear subpopulation. We combined helicopter line transect distance sampling surveys in most of the survey area with total counts in small areas not suitable for distance sampling. Due to weather constraints we failed to survey some of the areas originally planned to be covered by distance sampling. For those, abundance was estimated using a ratio estimator, in which the auxiliary variable was the number of satellite telemetry fixes (in previous years). We estimated that the Barents Sea subpopulation had approximately 2650 (95% CI approx 1900 to 3600) bears. Given current intense interest in polar bear management due to the potentially disastrous effects of climate change, it is surprising that many subpopulation sizes are still unknown. We show here that line transect sampling is a promising method for addressing the need for abundance estimates.The effect of sea-ice loss on beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in West Greenland
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1856
An aerial survey was conducted to estimate the abundance of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) on their wintering ground in West Greenland in March–April 2006 and 2008. The survey was conducted as a double platform aerial line transect survey, and sampled approximately 17% of the total survey area of ca. 125 000 km2. The abundance of belugas was 10 595 (95% confidence interval 4904–24 650). The largest abundance was found at the northern part of Store Hellefiske Bank, at the eastern edge of the Baffin Bay pack ice, a pattern similar to that found in eight systematic surveys conducted since 1981. A clear relationship between decreasing sea-ice cover and increasing offshore distance of beluga sightings was established from all previous surveys, suggesting that belugas expand their distribution westward as new areas on the banks of West Greenland open up earlier in spring with reduced sea-ice coverage or early annual ice recession. This is in contrast to the relatively confined distribution of belugas near the coast in limited open areas in the early 1980s, when sea-ice cover was greater. However, the effects of the changes in coastal availability of belugas can also be observed with the correlation between catches from the local Inuit hunt and sea-ice cover, where the catches increased significantly with increasing sea-ice coverage during the period 1954–2006. These results, based on nearly 30 years of dedicated survey effort, are among the first available evidence showing a shift in distribution of an Arctic cetacean in response to changes in sea-ice coverage.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZHeide-Jørgensen, M. P.Laidre, K. L.Borchers, David LouisMarques, Tiago A.Stern, H.Simon, M.An aerial survey was conducted to estimate the abundance of belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) on their wintering ground in West Greenland in March–April 2006 and 2008. The survey was conducted as a double platform aerial line transect survey, and sampled approximately 17% of the total survey area of ca. 125 000 km2. The abundance of belugas was 10 595 (95% confidence interval 4904–24 650). The largest abundance was found at the northern part of Store Hellefiske Bank, at the eastern edge of the Baffin Bay pack ice, a pattern similar to that found in eight systematic surveys conducted since 1981. A clear relationship between decreasing sea-ice cover and increasing offshore distance of beluga sightings was established from all previous surveys, suggesting that belugas expand their distribution westward as new areas on the banks of West Greenland open up earlier in spring with reduced sea-ice coverage or early annual ice recession. This is in contrast to the relatively confined distribution of belugas near the coast in limited open areas in the early 1980s, when sea-ice cover was greater. However, the effects of the changes in coastal availability of belugas can also be observed with the correlation between catches from the local Inuit hunt and sea-ice cover, where the catches increased significantly with increasing sea-ice coverage during the period 1954–2006. These results, based on nearly 30 years of dedicated survey effort, are among the first available evidence showing a shift in distribution of an Arctic cetacean in response to changes in sea-ice coverage.Density estimation implications of increasing ambient noise on beaked whale click detection and classification
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1652
Acoustic based density estimates are being increasingly used. Usually density estimation methods require one to evaluate the eﬀective survey area of the acoustic sensors, or equivalently estimate the mean detection probability of detecting the animals or cues of interest. This is often done based on an estimated detection function, the probability of detecting an object of interest as a function of covariates, usually distance and additional covariates. If the actual survey data and the data used to estimate a detection function are not collected simultaneously, as in Marques et al. (2009), the estimated detection function might not correspond to the detection process that generated the survey data. This would lead to biaseddensity estimates. Here we evaluate the inﬂuence of ambient noise in the detection and classiﬁcation of beaked whale clicks at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) hydrophones, to assess if the density estimates reported in Marques et al. (2009) might have been biased. To do so we contaminated a data set with increasing levels of ambient noise, and then estimated the detection function accounting for the noise level as an additional covariate. The results obtained suggest that for the particular results obtained at AUTEC’s deep water hydrophones the inﬂuence of ambient noise on the beaked whale’s click detection probability might have been minor, and hence unlikely to have had an impact on density estimates. However, we do not exclude the possibility that the results could be diﬀerent under other scenarios.
2010-01-01T00:00:00ZMarques, Tiago Andre Lamas OliveiraWard, JessicaJarvis, SusanMoretti, DavidMorrissey, RonaldDiMarzio, NancyThomas, LenAcoustic based density estimates are being increasingly used. Usually density estimation methods require one to evaluate the eﬀective survey area of the acoustic sensors, or equivalently estimate the mean detection probability of detecting the animals or cues of interest. This is often done based on an estimated detection function, the probability of detecting an object of interest as a function of covariates, usually distance and additional covariates. If the actual survey data and the data used to estimate a detection function are not collected simultaneously, as in Marques et al. (2009), the estimated detection function might not correspond to the detection process that generated the survey data. This would lead to biaseddensity estimates. Here we evaluate the inﬂuence of ambient noise in the detection and classiﬁcation of beaked whale clicks at the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) hydrophones, to assess if the density estimates reported in Marques et al. (2009) might have been biased. To do so we contaminated a data set with increasing levels of ambient noise, and then estimated the detection function accounting for the noise level as an additional covariate. The results obtained suggest that for the particular results obtained at AUTEC’s deep water hydrophones the inﬂuence of ambient noise on the beaked whale’s click detection probability might have been minor, and hence unlikely to have had an impact on density estimates. However, we do not exclude the possibility that the results could be diﬀerent under other scenarios.Generating continuous mappings with Lipschitz mappings
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1616
If X is a metric space, then C-X and L-X denote the semigroups of continuous and Lipschitz mappings, respectively, from X to itself. The relative rank of C-X modulo L-X is the least cardinality of any set U\L-X where U generates C-X. For a large class of separable metric spaces X we prove that the relative rank of C-X modulo L-X is uncountable. When X is the Baire space N-N, this rank is N-1. A large part of the paper emerged from discussions about the necessity of the assumptions imposed on the class of spaces from the aforementioned results.
2007-05-01T00:00:00ZCichon, JMitchell, James DavidMorayne, MIf X is a metric space, then C-X and L-X denote the semigroups of continuous and Lipschitz mappings, respectively, from X to itself. The relative rank of C-X modulo L-X is the least cardinality of any set U\L-X where U generates C-X. For a large class of separable metric spaces X we prove that the relative rank of C-X modulo L-X is uncountable. When X is the Baire space N-N, this rank is N-1. A large part of the paper emerged from discussions about the necessity of the assumptions imposed on the class of spaces from the aforementioned results.Generating the full transformation semigroup using order preserving mappings
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1553
For a linearly ordered set X we consider the relative rank of the semigroup of all order preserving mappings O-X on X modulo the full transformation semigroup Ex. In other words, we ask what is the smallest cardinality of a set A of mappings such that <O-X boolean OR A> = T-X. When X is countably infinite or well-ordered (of arbitrary cardinality) we show that this number is one, while when X = R (the set of real numbers) it is uncountable.
2003-09-01T00:00:00ZHiggins, PMMitchell, James DavidRuskuc, NikolaFor a linearly ordered set X we consider the relative rank of the semigroup of all order preserving mappings O-X on X modulo the full transformation semigroup Ex. In other words, we ask what is the smallest cardinality of a set A of mappings such that <O-X boolean OR A> = T-X. When X is countably infinite or well-ordered (of arbitrary cardinality) we show that this number is one, while when X = R (the set of real numbers) it is uncountable.On defining groups efficiently without using inverses
http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1442
Let G be a group, and let <A \ R> be a finite group presentation for G with \R\ greater than or equal to \A\. Then there exists a, finite semigroup, presentation <B \ Q> for G such that \Q\ - \B\ = \R\ - \A\. Moreover, B is either the same generating set or else it contains one additional generator.
2002-07-01T00:00:00ZCampbell, Colin MatthewMitchell, James DavidRuskuc, NikolaLet G be a group, and let <A \ R> be a finite group presentation for G with \R\ greater than or equal to \A\. Then there exists a, finite semigroup, presentation <B \ Q> for G such that \Q\ - \B\ = \R\ - \A\. Moreover, B is either the same generating set or else it contains one additional generator.